Wimbledon 2024 Final - [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB) v/s [3] Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (SPN)

Win Prediction poll (winner and sets)


  • Total voters
    201
  • Poll closed .
Leave the 'should' and 'could' at the door, 'cause destiny will decide. The current great veteran -v- the current great kid. Wicked.
 
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zvelf

Hall of Fame
Yeah, honestly, today's matches make me more hopeful of Alcaraz's chances. In his last two matches, Carlos dropped a sloppy first set and then basically rolled. That's a far cry from what happened against Tiafoe or even Humbert, and those two matches feel a bit more in the rear-view mirror now. Djokovic I think will need to pick up the serving. It was better indoors, but now outdoors again today it seemed to suffer (and the forecast for the final looks overcast but not rainy). For about half the match today he was languishing in the low 60%s behind his first serve – this against a guy who was just chipping the ball passively into play. Musetti also gave Djokovic all the initiative in a lot of rallies with his mid-court slices, and even when he came over the ball he generally needed more time and space to hit it well than Alcaraz does. I was honestly surprised Musetti kept it as close as he did and I think a lot of it was down to Novak just not being dialed in.

Anything can happen of course – maybe Novak just hasn't brought his highest level yet. For the most part he's been coasting, doing juuust enough to win comfortably (but not exceptionally dominantly) against thoroughly overmatched opponents. Carlos has had some very worryingly low dips in play this fortnight but his best has looked, to me, better than Novak's best (with the exception of the serve, where Djokovic's best has been far and away superior). Maybe Djokovic has a higher gear to go to – historically, that's been true, but he's getting older and coming off a surgery and even before the knee injury hadn't really shown that higher gear much this season, so we'll see. Also need Carlos to hold up his end of the bargain and play at least as well as he did in the last couple matches. Should be a fun one.
Age catches up with everyone eventually and it has caught up with Djokovic this year. This is a good analysis. Djokovic's level this fortnight has been less than Alcaraz's. Alcaraz has had his walkabouts in some matches, but he always turned it on when he absolutely needed to. Djokovic will have to play at a higher sustained level than he has shown all year to win. He can do it if his first serve percentage is over 70 and he plays aggressive with more serve and volleying than usual, but his level against Musetti's not going to do it.
 

ChrisRF

Legend
Djokovic in 4 or even in 3.

He has Carlos' number since the last Wimbledon final, and Alcaraz himself is in worse form. Djokovic SHOULD be in worse form with his knee himself, but I'm not so sure about this, because he played a really bad and nervous match for once in last year's final. His serve was also very much off that day.

I think Djokovic wins the 1st set against the notoriously slow starter Alcaraz, and then it will be all decisive if he has his 2nd set slump or not, because that would give Alcaraz a second wind and new hope. If Djokovic can weather that storm, it's over.
 

Jonas78

Legend
Question is where Djoko really is, i feel he hasnt been tested yet. Poor form all year and back from surgery. Shouldnt be possible but ill never write him off.
 

Mike Sams

G.O.A.T.
Djokovic in 4 or even in 3.

He has Carlos' number since the last Wimbledon final, and Alcaraz himself is in worse form. Djokovic SHOULD be in worse form with his knee himself, but I'm not so sure about this, because he played a really bad and nervous match for once in last year's final. His serve was also very much off that day.

I think Djokovic wins the 1st set against the notoriously slow starter Alcaraz, and then it will be all decisive if he has his 2nd set slump or not, because that would give Alcaraz a second wind and new hope. If Djokovic can weather that storm, it's over.
Those were hardcourts. And the last one was indoors best of 3 where Carlos loses to many guys. Wimbledon grass is a whole other thing.
 

Mike Sams

G.O.A.T.
Are Nadal fans cheering for Djoker since they all hate Alcaraz so much? Or they hate both Djoker and Alcaraz equally?
 

Jonas78

Legend
Alcaraz is broken 19 times in 6 matches

Djokovic is broken 5 times in 5 matches

Djokovic is far more comfortable on grass than clay boy. I am predicting Djokovic in 5
Although i agree both can win on sunday, i dont know if those stats are very relevant. Carlos draw was way tougher, and he can get very sloppy in some matches. Wont be sloppy in a slam final though
 

Tano

Hall of Fame
Are Nadal fans cheering for Djoker since they all hate Alcaraz so much? Or they hate both Djoker and Alcaraz equally?
Nadal has already done what he could and his career is practically over, although he may have one last ace up his sleeve.
That fallacy that Nadal fans would be upset, envious or paranoid because Alcaraz is equaling or even surpassing his precocity results (if he manages to win on Sunday) are just malicious projections from people who seek to cause a fan war between both players.
You seem to fit very well into that instigating group.
 

-NN-

G.O.A.T.
Hard to pick a winner. Djokovic is more dependable but when Alcaraz puts it together for those quite long stretches he looks virtually unplayable. Djokovic feels like a security safe and Alcaraz has one on tenterhooks. I actually think that for Alcaraz to win this match he doesn't need to try and unlock Djoker's lockdown code with his wild aggression and creativity and boldness, but should instead tone it down a bit and focus on not giving away free points. Of course, he shouldn't neuter his own game and should still show tactical variety and aggression, but just slightly dialled back. If he does that then he has a great shot at winning, but if not then Djokovic's level will probably just lead to Alcaraz "beating himself", where for stretches he outplays Djokovic but can't play on the unnecessary limit enough to win 3 sets.

Though that's not to say Alcaraz isn't capable of it because he is that good, and we're not exactly sure how Djokovic will stack up to a challenge this fierce so soon after his knee procedure. Djokovic also hasn't won a title in seemingly forever.
 

Pheasant

Legend
Djoker is one step away from #25. He can taste it and will fight tooth-and-nail to try to bag that title. Alcaraz has proven to be quite the warrior himself. I think that Alcaraz will have his usual slow start and drop a set. Djoker will zone for another set and crush Alcaraz in that set. But I believe that youth will prevail.

Alcaraz in 5 sets: 4-6, 6-4, 2-6, 7-6, 7-5 in a classic.
 

Juice4080

Semi-Pro
Hard to pick a winner. Djokovic is more dependable but when Alcaraz puts it together for those quite long stretches he looks virtually unplayable. Djokovic feels like a security safe and Alcaraz has one on tenterhooks. I actually think that for Alcaraz to win this match he doesn't need to try and unlock Djoker's lockdown code with his wild aggression and creativity and boldness, but should instead tone it down a bit and focus on not giving away free points. Of course, he shouldn't neuter his own game and should still show tactical variety and aggression, but just slightly dialled back. If he does that then he has a great shot at winning, but if not then Djokovic's level will probably just lead to Alcaraz "beating himself", where for stretches he outplays Djokovic but can't play on the unnecessary limit enough to win 3 sets.

Though that's not to say Alcaraz isn't capable of it because he is that good, and we're not exactly sure how Djokovic will stack up to a challenge this fierce so soon after his knee procedure. Djokovic also hasn't won a title in seemingly forever.

Yeah Alcaraz is not playing the numbers. He doesn't play the percentage tennis needed to beat Novak consistently like Rafa did. Sure he can get hot but Novak is the master at hanging in and then pouncing when there's an opening. I feel this will be a learning experience for Carlos
 

ND-13

Legend
Djokovic has so much lined up for him this Wimbledon. All heavy weights like Sinner, Medvedev, Alcaraz, Paul on one side and injured players on the other. No wonder he got a bye in QF.

He could not have asked anything better to reach the finals and at the same time for Alcaraz not to be in top form.

It is all set up for Djokovic to win in 3 or 4 sets.
 

Quaichang

Professional
Hard to pick a winner. Djokovic is more dependable but when Alcaraz puts it together for those quite long stretches he looks virtually unplayable. Djokovic feels like a security safe and Alcaraz has one on tenterhooks. I actually think that for Alcaraz to win this match he doesn't need to try and unlock Djoker's lockdown code with his wild aggression and creativity and boldness, but should instead tone it down a bit and focus on not giving away free points. Of course, he shouldn't neuter his own game and should still show tactical variety and aggression, but just slightly dialled back. If he does that then he has a great shot at winning, but if not then Djokovic's level will probably just lead to Alcaraz "beating himself", where for stretches he outplays Djokovic but can't play on the unnecessary limit enough to win 3 sets.

Though that's not to say Alcaraz isn't capable of it because he is that good, and we're not exactly sure how Djokovic will stack up to a challenge this fierce so soon after his knee procedure. Djokovic also hasn't won a title in seemingly forever.
It is going to be very physical. Novak is going to push him but Carlitos is going to find a way a way to win.
 

rhoder

Rookie
If Djokovic has a decent first serve % he will win. Alcaraz got away with it last year due to Djokovic’s atrocious serving and still it went to 5 sets. Should there be no roof and a more windy weather that will help Alcaraz.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
If Djokovic has a decent first serve % he will win. Alcaraz got away with it last year due to Djokovic’s atrocious serving and still it went to 5 sets. Should there be no roof and a more windy weather that will help Alcaraz.
There will be slight wind..

Not anywhere close to last year so Nole's serve will have zero issues..
 

Federer and Del Potro

Bionic Poster
@Rafa4LifeEver We have learned you have been making match threads before matches are over.

8ws8m5.jpg
 

Lauren_Girl'

Hall of Fame
People forget how close Alcaraz was to lose against Tiafoe, who is in a calamitous form this year (literally lost to Cachin who was on a 15 matches losing streak in Madrid). . He had a couple of tight serve games at the end of the 4th set, when FT was up 2 sets to 1. He saved a BP around the middle of the set and was down 0-30 at 4-4. With Tiafoe's quality of serve at that moment, this almost looked like he saved match points. Then Ugo Humbert was up 4-3 0-40 in the 4th set, it's a miracle Alcaraz avoided the 5th set. Paul was up 7-5 3-0 and in my opinion he kinda panicked and let him back into the match. Lajal (ranked around 300) had opportunities to win the first 2 sets. Even Vekic broke him and served for the first set at 6-5. He wasn't having such troubles last year.
If Djokovic doesn't choke times and times again and can take his opportunities, he should be able to repeat Tiafoe's performance and finish him off.... if the knee is ok, I want to believe he has a chance.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
People forget how close Alcaraz was to lose against Tiafoe, who is in a calamitous form this year (literally lost to Cachin who was on a 15 matches losing streak in Madrid). . He had a couple of tight serve games at the end of the 4th set, when FT was up 2 sets to 1. He saved a BP around the middle of the set and was down 0-30 at 4-4. With Tiafoe's quality of serve at that moment, this almost looked like he saved match points. Then Ugo Humbert was up 4-3 0-40 in the 4th set, it's a miracle Alcaraz avoided the 5th set. Paul was up 7-5 3-0 and in my opinion he kinda panicked and let him back into the match. Lajal (ranked around 300) had opportunities to win the first 2 sets. Even Vekic broke him and served for the first set at 6-5. He wasn't having such troubles last year.
If Djokovic doesn't choke times and times again and can take his opportunities, he should be able to repeat Tiafoe's performance and finish him off.... if the knee is ok, I want to believe he has a chance.
Alcaraz looks more beatable in 2024 than 2023

Last year only question was if he will be physically capable vs Djokovic. He was looking to dominate the tennis game after winning iw Barcelona Madrid and almost overwhelming fav of RG where he cramped. Then won queens out of nowhere. No one knew his weaknesses or if he had any. So many intangibles.

Meddy had impact of that and was bamboozled. This year he gave a tough challenge to raz knowing to go fh to fh vs Raz and probably won more longer pts as well.


Players know how to beat Raz but very few are capable of doing all the things necessary. Djokovic is by far the most capable player on the tour and he knows how to play Raz.

Let's see.
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
My take on the final

1- Carlos will play his usual game ( error prone , high risk and doesn't know fear )

2- Djokovic will rely on his defense , high percentage tennis

3- Novak's serve will not be a bigger factor as some posters are making Alcaraz has been returning great and breaking with ease

4- match will be decided on how much mental walkabout Carlos has if it extends to two sets then Djokovic will close the match before Carlos even realises. If Carlos is Sharpe from the get go then Carlos will win ( but if a big it )

5- Djokovic's BH is not as potent as before ( been many years) and Carlos will try to attack that wing and his BH itself is firing.

6- Novak might be undercooked since he hasn't played anyone who can stretch him a bit and this can haunt him

My prediction is Carlos in 4 sets , he believes he can win and has the game and skills to pull it off.
 
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onehandbh

G.O.A.T.
Djokovic in 3 or 4.

He's had a much easier route to the finals, better at taking the ball earlier and playing closer to the baseline, making opponents move more.

Plus he just straight-setted Musetti, one of the greatest grass court players the world has seen*.






* To clarify, I meant that Musetti is one of the best grass court players this year on the ATP tour.
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
I think Djok will apply steadier pressure than he did in last year's final, will serve a bit better, and will (to some degree)
wait the tiny one out for the win. As Boris B said awhile back, "at this level it's not about tennis".

I hope both guys bring real good form for this match.

True, when similar opponents play it's more than tennis at this level ( couldn't agree more with Boris) small margin will decide the outcome and either player can win.
 

sliceroni

Hall of Fame
Tough call on the fence. One minute I think Nole will turn back the clock and prevail in 5, moments later have a feeling Carlos will have that dominant performance every great player has where he can do no wrong (Fed USO final 04, Becker 89 Wimb, Sampras 99 Wimb) Can’t wait to see what happens.
 

Vincent-C

Legend
Tough call on the fence. One minute I think Nole will turn back the clock and prevail in 5, moments later have a feeling Carlos will have that dominant performance every atg has where he can do no wrong (Fed USO final 04, Becker 89 Wimb, Sampras 99 Wimb. Can’t wait to see what happens.
Indeed!
 
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