roysid
Legend
Djokovic s level of tennis was much higher than what shown by alcaraz
Wimbledon 2024 Final - [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB) v/s [3] Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (SPN)
- Thread starter Rafa4LifeEver
- Start date
pirhaksar
Professional
Wow, when was the last time Novak was such an underdog on TTW polls!? Maybe against Rafa at the FO!Only the Djokovic fans would tip Djokovic.
There is no intellectual reason to think Djokovic would beat Alcaraz, after Djokovic looked so timid vs. Musetti, while Alcaraz blasted 55 winners vs. Medwall.
Will be hard for Djokovic to win a set, though I voted for "Alcaraz in 5" because he's 12-1 in 5-setters so its always the safest bet.
pirhaksar
Professional
Exactly my sense as well based on what I have seen. Tiafoe had the best chance really to beat him but he overcame that, seems to moved up few gears. Meanwhile Novak doesn’t look solid, better than most of a poor year by his standards but still not his 2023 self. Not sure if he has unseen gears left at this stage. We will know Sunday. If he loses Sunday, this should be the final nail in the Big 3 coffin with respect to winning slams (with possible exception of Rafa at FO)
tennis_pro
Bionic Poster
If Djokovic couldn't beat Alcaraz last year I don't know how he will this year.
Alcaraz in 4.
Alcaraz in 4.
King_ Zeglan12
Professional
Agree to disagree then. I don't see it that way
SonicNirvana
Hall of Fame
Novak in 3-4
tennis_pro
Bionic Poster
Let Alcaraz win, have a 2-0 record against Djokovic in Wimbledon finals and let all the BS arguments that Alcaraz is better than Djokovic at Wimbledon because he's beating him in finals just like with Djoko-Fed.
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
Impossible to pick this match. If it was anyone other than Alcaraz in the final, Djokovic would have been the winner for sure. I said before the tournament that Alcaraz is the only player who can beat Novak on grass.
Re-Watching 2023 Final (in it's entirity) - I am struck by how both men are playing worse than last year. Especially Alcaraz who has lacked consistency.
The arguments against Djokovic are that he hasn't beaten top 10 players recently and hasn't faced quality opposition. His very best might be inferior to Alcaraz's at this stage in their career.
The arguments against Alcaraz are that he has NOT been consistent enough. He's had huge dips in his matches and got broken a lot by inferior players. He was on the heels vs Tiafoe and Humbert.
If Alcaraz has an extended dip, Novak won't let him get back, that is for sure. However, Alcaraz's A game is bigger and better than Novak's. Even on grass.
That said, on an average level, Novak is the far more steadier player and will generally perform at a higher average level in a match compared to Alcaraz who will be up and down. Novak is also good in revenge matches.
Logically speaking, Novak is the far safer pick. It is more likely that he plays steadily enough to win just by virtue of law of averages. So the head says, Novak in 4 sets.
Still, Alcaraz is such a remarkable talent - so I'll go with my heart and pick Carlitos in 4 sets over Novak to win his 4th slam title! Let's hope we have a great match.
Re-Watching 2023 Final (in it's entirity) - I am struck by how both men are playing worse than last year. Especially Alcaraz who has lacked consistency.
The arguments against Djokovic are that he hasn't beaten top 10 players recently and hasn't faced quality opposition. His very best might be inferior to Alcaraz's at this stage in their career.
The arguments against Alcaraz are that he has NOT been consistent enough. He's had huge dips in his matches and got broken a lot by inferior players. He was on the heels vs Tiafoe and Humbert.
If Alcaraz has an extended dip, Novak won't let him get back, that is for sure. However, Alcaraz's A game is bigger and better than Novak's. Even on grass.
That said, on an average level, Novak is the far more steadier player and will generally perform at a higher average level in a match compared to Alcaraz who will be up and down. Novak is also good in revenge matches.
Logically speaking, Novak is the far safer pick. It is more likely that he plays steadily enough to win just by virtue of law of averages. So the head says, Novak in 4 sets.
Still, Alcaraz is such a remarkable talent - so I'll go with my heart and pick Carlitos in 4 sets over Novak to win his 4th slam title! Let's hope we have a great match.
Rattie
Legend
Good post!
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
tennis_pro
Bionic Poster
How about let Alcaraz win and let the "Djokovic lost only because he's too old" floodgates open. This should've happened years ago if Djokovic had proper competition instead of the Berrettinis of the world.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Yes but how about no
Rattie
Legend
Nappa
Professional
How can number 2 seed be underdog against number 3 seed? This is new mental gymnastics from djokofans to put reality the way they want.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Exactly.
It's not a big deal for either Nole or Raz if they lose. Both have enough to look forward to.
Rattie
Legend
Good to hear she is well enough to attend and enjoy the sport she loves.
Rattie
Legend
Agreed. Whoever loses it takes nothing away from how excellent they are.
Razer
G.O.A.T.
Use your brain, maybe you will understand how number 2 seed can be underdog against a number 3 seed.
Succession
Semi-Pro
I voted Carlos in 4, but am 99% sure Djokovic will take it in 3 or 4.
Nole just won't lose the final of his second favorite Slam to the same guy in two consecutive years.
My vote is just wishful thinking lol.
Nole just won't lose the final of his second favorite Slam to the same guy in two consecutive years.
My vote is just wishful thinking lol.
There are different types of knee surgery … doctor might could cut off a piece of meniscus or sew it all together … those types has different recovery time… and we don’t know what exactly Djokovic did with his knee there might be some minor meniscus cut … or he might have negative consequences in the future
messiahrobins
Legend
The YEC match up is of concern as that suggests Djokovic has solved the puzzle v Alcaraz. The Big 3 lasted so long as they had this innate ability to solve the games of newcomers.
The only way Alcaraz can win this is to make it physical and every point a grind. But that means keeping UFE's down and thats not his game. He gets bored after about 10 shots in the rally and tries to go nuclear to end a rally. Against Djokovic that is fatal. Nadal had so much success against Djokovic, especially at slam level, as he ground Djokovic down time and time again. Alcaraz doesnt have that game. Lat year in truth Djokovic was actually woeful, yet still went 5 sets.
Alcaraz has lots of weaknesses on grass that the very best can exploit and Djokovic i think beats him in 4 sets and quite comfortably.
TheSlicer
Hall of Fame
Do you realize this has been your best post in 13 years?
Tennisfan339
Professional
Good to see some remember their last match in Torino. It was a blood bath. Alcaraz wasn't even injured or playing bad (he beat Rublev and Medvedev comfortably in the group matches) yet he lost 6-3 6-2 in 1h20. Could have even been worse. The Cincinnati final changed the dynamics between them, a lot of people seem to forget these 2 matches happened.
Rafa4LifeEver
G.O.A.T.
Rafa4LifeEver
G.O.A.T.
I agree. Alcaraz doesn't match up well against Djokovic's depth & consistency
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
You say this because you haven't seen my older posts. Much older.
messiahrobins
Legend
I can see Djokovic doing to Alcaraz for a while what he did to Nadal in 2011. Once he figured Nadal out Nadal didnt have a clue what to do until 2012 after 7 straight beatdowns when he then turned the rivalry round retooling his own game.
Alcaraz has not retooled his game and right now Djokovic has him on toast as he clearly has worked out Alcaraz doesnt like to be rushed, doesnt possess great passing shots (he will inavriably try to lob) and has a very suspect FH ROS and on big points tends to hit the slice serve or kick serve rather than flat. Add all that together and at the moment tomorrow could be a repeat of YEC with maybe Alcaraz pinching a set. I could see it being something like 6-2 6-3 6-7 6-1 to Djokovic tomorrow.
Rafa4LifeEver
G.O.A.T.
I agree with your analysis, Carlos has been playing exactly the same tennis since 2022, no tactical or technical improvements whatsoever.
If he lets Djokovic dictate the points and keeps running like a madman chasing everything down, the Serb will take his legs away like he did at RG SF & Cincinati F last year.
Carlos needs to retool his game to be immune towards depth & being rushed.
messiahrobins
Legend
Spot on. In fact Alcaraz seems more impatient than 2 years ago, but ive noticed he seems a bit slower now round the court, if you look carefully it is noticeable albeit we are talking a fraction.
Novak underestimated last year, he admitted afterwards he was surprised by Carlos on frass as he knew on hard and clay he was great, but was caught by surprise on grass. I fear tomorrow will be a schooling for Alcaraz. If he thinks he can play like he has done so far and get the job done, tomorrow he may as well get the school uniform on!!
Rafa4LifeEver
G.O.A.T.
Carlos needs to learn junkballing in order to throw Djokovic off rhythm and save some energy in rallies, because his serve & return aren't good enough to hurt Djokovic from the baseline consistently. Additionally, despite packing immaculate power, the lack of extreme angles, poor shot selection & inability to change direction means he can't blast Djokovic off the court effectively.
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
How does one match shape a rivalry trend? Especially a match indoors which is the worst surface for Alcaraz. I recall seeing that match and Alcaraz was just trying to serve too big and made tons of UFEs.
The Cincy match was very close. And Alcaraz was cramping on his hand in the end. He was also depleted physically. Still it went to a 3rd set TB.
One thing is for sure, the very best of Alcaraz will beat the best of Djokovic on grass. Alcaraz just had a much bigger game and is also faster. Sort of like peak Fed vs Novak.
However, Alcaraz isn't as steady though, and this year especially, his game has been off and on. This is why Novak has a great chance.
But the match is still on Alcaraz's racquet as he is the far more offensive player.
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Zetty
Hall of Fame
Novak's level isn't high enough to straight set Alcaraz
Exactly.
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
I didn’t watch the Turin match. What did Djokovic do to beat Carlos so easily?
Mike Sams
G.O.A.T.
Djokovic's career hangs in the balance.
Losing a second consecutive Wimbledon final to the much younger Alcaraz will have serious repercussions.
I can see Alcaraz taking this match to a level of physicality that Djokovic will struggle to keep up with and then shutting the door on Djokovic completely on any future major titles.
Losing a second consecutive Wimbledon final to the much younger Alcaraz will have serious repercussions.
I can see Alcaraz taking this match to a level of physicality that Djokovic will struggle to keep up with and then shutting the door on Djokovic completely on any future major titles.
Mike Sams
G.O.A.T.
Alcaraz isn't an indoor player. Much like Nadal.
fO?you kidding?cramping afrer just 1.30h is not taking his legs.it was all about nerves and mental pressure.alcaraz has played way more physical matches,even back to back.
There wasn't a big enough difference in their performances. Alcaraz was playing the higher ranked opponent and came through without too much baggage
It's too late to talk about Djokovic doing this or that going forward, he is 37 years old. He's not just on the back 9 of his career, he's in the last couple of holes.
TheSlicer
Hall of Fame
to be honest, there were some amazing points in that match and carlos was hitting the ball extremely well, he had many chances of break points, but djokovic played specially well the important points
Poisoned Slice
Bionic Poster
messiahrobins
Legend
Different levels obviously but my indoor game, even on indoor hard (hard my fav surface along with clay, astroturf my worse) is way below my worse surface outdoors.
It isnt the surface that is the issue, and i assume even at the very highest pro level its the same gig. Indoors the ball is just so different off the strings it flies way more which for more pysical players who 'muscle' the ball rather than have effortless power indoor tennis is a nightmare. The great indoor players all had effortless smooth power, i.e Sampras Becker, Stich, Federer, Djokovic now Sinner. The more 'muscle the ball' players were all very average indoors such as Muster, Courier, Agassi, Nadal and now Alcaraz.
Im(moral) Winner
G.O.A.T.
He's had an even easier draw while Alcaraz has had a harder one while being in worse form than last year. He bit be somewhat physically and mentally exhausted from the matches and winning RG. But maybe he's played himself into form.
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
I completely disagree with this analysis. Nadal-Djokovic in 2011 was totally different from Novak-Alcaraz in 2022-2024. Novak 2.0 in 2011 was the aggessor and would relentlessly attack Nadal's backhand. Novak 2.0 had an improved ROS, better physical stamina, better speed and basically camped on the baseline and controlled the neutral rallies.
To contend with this, Nadal had to retool his game. Improve his backhand dramatically. Make sure that he doesn't retreat behind the baseline. Do better spot serving and change direction earlier in the rally. Fire up the DTL forehand early. Go harder on the CC backhand and flatten out the DTL. Then Nadal, finally was able to compete with Djokovic by being more aggressive himself.
The situation of Alcaraz and Novak is totally different. Alcaraz has been, and always will be, the AGGRESSOR in their matchup. His offensive arsenal is akin to Federer and FAR FAR exceeds anything that Novak can do. His sheer weight of shot on the forehand can completely switch a neutral point in his favor from anywhere on the court. He also is extremely explosive and very creative with the changes of pace, touch and all the different variations.
Novak beats Alcaraz by virtue of being more consistent and benefitting from Alcaraz making errors at critical points. And the fact that Alcaraz hasn't figured out the right mixture of offense vs defense.
Alcaraz has improved his 2nd serve dramatically. In fact his average 2nd serve speed and win % is higher than Novak against better quality opponents. Alcaraz also outserved Novak in Wimbledon 2023 Final. He outserved Medvedev in the Wimb 2024 SF.
I do agree with his forehand ROS being suspect, but even there he is doing better now on the grass.
Simply put, the reason Novak has a great chance to win tomorrow is that Alcaraz has been very very wayward with his game. He has played at B- and C level for several losing sets.
Once he gets his A game, he wins the matches - but he takes a while to find it. At 21, he still hasn't mastered the consistency and sustained intensity in long matches. He has far too many dips. That could prove suicidal vs Novak in the final.
Still, if Alcaraz plays his A game, there is really NOTHING that Novak can do to counter it.
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If memory serves: his spot serving was on point and he was bludgeoning the forehand as big as he ever has, without much missing.
TheSlicer
Hall of Fame
What have you done to tennisfan3 and why are you using his computer? Great analysis
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
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