Wimbledon 2024 Quarterfinals matchup - [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB) v/s [9] Alex De Minaur (AUS)

win prediction poll


  • Total voters
    61
  • Poll closed .

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Novak in his late career is serving better than ever. He has become an incredible spot server, much better than when he was back in his 20s.
I'm going to push back against that a little bit. As you very well know 2015 was one of his very top years. That year he won 89.9% of his service games. That's on all surfaces. His statistics at the age of 28 for return had fallen considerably from 2011. But his improved serve meant that he was back up to well over 60% of all games. That has generally meant several slams for all of the open era.

In 2023 that stat was back up to 89.0%. It is possible that his serve was even better because he had to win more points from the serve itself. But you can see it was still a wee bit down from 2015. But his return numbers were a good bit lower so his approximate percentage for all games was somewhere around 59%.

I agree with the rest of what you said. He has been incredibly proactive about never stopping to improve himself. So we have to be very careful when looking at stats for a full year on all surfaces and for all matches because it is quite possible that aging all time greats coast more in earlier rounds. I'm sure you know that was very true for Pete Sampras.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
This will be a good match for Novak. He should be able to dictate play most of the time

And if he loses to de Minaur, there was no way he was going to win the title anyway
 
I don't know what to think about this guy. I wanted Federer to be sitting where Djokovic is at the end of his career. Had the game I liked to watch. But how he is doing what he is doing right now absolutely blows my mind. The fact that he won his last match with three such easy sets is something I simply did not see as possible. How could this happen after surgery?

But I do think that if he wins this Wimbledon, the legacy of both Carlos and Sinner is going to be permanently damaged. Because if this man now 37 years old could still be this dominant, you just have to wonder why these younger players can't get the upper hand.

The guy has lived the most charmed existence ever. Played almost his entire career without having to face a younger all time great.
 

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
He's finished, but even 100% healthy he didn't have a chance.

I think you are right, but Djokovic could have had a match on his hands, because he is not hitting as precise as he normally is and that would mean a physical battle with one of the best movers on tour. Of course, without full movement, DeMinaur is nothing.

I know Djokovic' fans will say a w/o reduces his chances, but I'm not sure that's true in this particular situation. More rest and practice with focus on technical detail will make him more SF ready than a tough battle, as I see it.
 

King_ Zeglan12

Professional
This won’t be as easy for Djokovic as people think. Djokovic wasn’t great against Rune just solid. Rune beat himself but de Minaur will be much more solid and make Novak work. Djoko might have the firepower but he needs to serve well and hit his groundies with precision and accuracy of he will be in trouble.
Agreed. De Minaur can grind down Djokovic ( still not 100% movement wise) and really test Djokovic from the baseline if Djokovic is unable to replicate his clinical serving performance from the previous round
 
… why these younger players can't get the upper hand …

I'm thinking that Alcaraz represents the vanguard of a generation that actually has a chance to ascend. During the reign of the Three Greats, how many talents simply didn't, and either peaked to quickly and rapidly declined or just got shut down because they weren't instantly on the level?

Whatever one's potential, I hardly think it helps to play in a period where winning a major is only ever an "upset" because one of the Three will inevitably stand on the other side of the net in the final. That must have an emotional and psychological cost as well as a material one: surely, one can't afford or can't access the very best in coaching, physio, mentoring, training and opportunity if "second" is all one can hope for.

Maybe even Alcaraz "can't get the upper hand" but he's still young enough to look forward to many future chances and he also demonstrates that *someone* getting the upper hand is not just wishful thinking but rather a very real possibility. An Alcaraz-Djokovic final with Spanish in the winner's speech would *not* be considered an "upset" but rather a well-fought victory.

I just loved watching Alcaraz on court, yesterday. I just loved watching a match where *both* players weren't remonstrating the chair or demonstrating fortitude-in-the-face-of-pain or falling to pieces or playing Monty Python's Black Knight or anything: it was just good tennis at the highest level. (Sure, I think he should have won in three but perhaps he's planned this and wants to peak in the Final.)
 
The Battle of The Wounded Warriors. Two of the absolute best fighters on tour.

Unfortunately De Minaur is severely injured after that horrible piece of luck injuring himself on match point in his previous match.

The reports are that Demon was barely able to walk after the match.

Would be a miracle if De Minaur can muster a full fight because of the injury. Such a shame because it would’ve been great to see him battle Djokovic at a major again on a surface that is slightly better for his game that the dead lifeless conditions at AO.
 
My prediction is a maximum of three sets – one way or the other – with the loser quite possibly retiring or physically falling to bits long before the first potential match-point. I'd back Djokovic to take it – if for no other reason, simply due to the magnitude of his career experience – but precisely who wins and who loses is rather irrelevant because this is honestly not a match I want to see.

De Minaur is thought to be injured; Djokovic claims his knee is not yet perfect. It's going to be gladiatorial and far more about endurance, pain-thresholds and desperation than the cunning exchange of fluffy yellow balls over a net, if it isn't just a serve-clinic put on by the Serb who holds every service game and wins in every tie-break – his tie-break record is phenomenal.

Also, I've been thinking about his statements after defeating Rune and I have a new opinion: I think Djokovic was being deliberately belligerent to the crowd to set himself up as a credible villain for this quarter-final. He *want's* to walk on and be the end-boss enemy from the first ball of the match because he feeds off antagonism directed his way. This makes me even more certain that he's planning to just "go big" to earn a place in the final as fast as possible: too quickly to risk making a proper match of it, wasting energy he'll need on Sunday or risking falling-to-bits – his leg to be carried off court, separately, in a wheel-barrow.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
Unreal. More pathetic path to a slam final than even US Open 2016 was. If there’s any justice at all left in the universe, he won’t win on Sunday.

Hope Demon recovers well.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
Yeah, lets just turn a blind eye to the fact that if Alcaraz did not lose early at Queens, this would have been his draw. But yeah, lets have a go at Djokovic.
Well yes, it’s Alcaraz’s own fault he couldn’t secure the number two seed. That doesn’t change the horrific collapse of the bottom half of the draw and the fact that it’s Novak, not Carlos, who is benefitting.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
Well yes, it’s Alcaraz’s own fault he couldn’t secure the number two seed. That doesn’t change the horrific collapse of the bottom half of the draw and the fact that it’s Novak, not Carlos, who is benefitting.

So exactly what justice are you seeking? What part of any of it is Novak's fault? He was meant to be third seed, Raz handed his draw to him on a silver platter.
 

TennisFan3

Talk Tennis Guru
So exactly what justice are you seeking? What part of any of it is Novak's fault? He was meant to be third seed, Raz handed his draw to him on a silver platter.
Tennis rules are weird. It should always be #1 vs #4. And #2 vs #3. Just so that there is incentive of being #1. It's like this in all sports.

None of this is Novak's fault. And Alcaraz could have been in his position too. But whoever benefits, it makes the tournament unfair for the rest of the contenders. There needs to be a system to change this. Including having substitutes for an injured player.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
Tennis rules are weird. It should always be #1 vs #4. And #2 vs #3. Just so that there is incentive of being #1. It's like this in all sports.

None of this is Novak's fault. And Alcaraz could have been in his position too. But whoever benefits, it makes the tournament unfair for the rest of the contenders. There needs to be a system to change this. Including having substitutes for an injured player.

This sort of stuff goes both ways. Lets not forget, Djokovic himself had to withdraw from a quarter final at the very last slam. It is unfortunate, but injuries are a part of sport.
 

marc45

G.O.A.T.
where's the line for these players when they know they're in major trouble and know they won't make their next match to retire on the spot?
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
So exactly what justice are you seeking? What part of any of it is Novak's fault? He was meant to be third seed, Raz handed his draw to him on a silver platter.
The justice of him losing in the final lol. Wawrinka did the needful at US Open 2016. Hopefully Alcaraz (or Medvedev?) can do the needful here!
 

pirhaksar

Professional
Sucks for ADM, dude was in the best form of his life…his best season I believe including a win against Novak. While his body may thank him, Novak may be undercooked in the semis. He needs to be battle tested against a likely final with Raz. I would have preferred a stern 4 or even 5 set test from ADM.
 

ACE of Hearts

Bionic Poster
Sucks for ADM, dude was in the best form of his life…his best season I believe including a win against Novak. While his body may thank him, Novak may be undercooked in the semis. He needs to be battle tested against a likely final with Raz. I would have preferred a stern 4 or even 5 set test from ADM.

He also lost to novak at monte carlo. De Minaur even at 100 percent wasn’t gonna beat novak.
 
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