Wimbledon 2026 QF: Novak Djokovic [7] vs. Felix Auger-Alisassime [3]

Prediction

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Nadal - GOAT said:
I feel FAA takes this. He is serving well and looks good physically. His backhand will need to come good though.

It will be really sad for tennis If a top next gen player like FAA can't beat this version of Novak.
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You say that but FAA has 3 things inferior to Novak. Return, BH and mental strength. Novak might be 39 but if you lack in these areas it difficult to beat a player like Djokovic.

Felix needs Father Time to catch Djoko here or I just still think Djoko has the strategy to beat Felix and will also mix it up.

There’s a reason Felix hasn’t won anything of note for ages and had poor results most the year.

Yeah he’s had a good run here but this a step up in quality. Let’s see.
 
Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
You say that but FAA has 3 things inferior to Novak. Return, BH and mental strength. Novak might be 39 but if you lack in these areas it difficult to beat a player like Djokovic.

Felix needs Father Time to catch Djoko here or I just still think Djoko has the strategy to beat Felix and will also mix it up.

There’s a reason Felix hasn’t won anything of note for ages and had poor results most the year.

Yeah he’s had a good run here but this a step up in quality. Let’s see.
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I see Felix as a top player among the current gen who has sporadic highs and lows in form.

For instance his recent AO outing was dismal. Though he had a great run in USO 25 reaching the SF and losing to Sinner in 4. He is on a good run now and I believe faster courts suits his game best.

I agree that Novak has the edge in BH and return. I would argue, Felix has the edge in physical conditioning and FH. Serve maybe they are about evens right now.

Ultimately it does come down to what level Novak brings of course. If Novak really levels up, there is not much Felix can do. Though I just haven't seen that from him this tournament.

Hope for a great contest
 
Nadal - GOAT said:
I see Felix as a top player among the current gen who has sporadic highs and lows in form.

For instance his recent AO outing was dismal. Though he had a great run in USO 25 reaching the SF and losing to Sinner in 4. He is on a good run now and I believe faster courts suits his game best.

I agree that Novak has the edge in BH and return. I would argue, Felix has the edge in physical conditioning and FH. Serve maybe they are about evens right now.

Ultimately it does come down to what level Novak brings of course. If Novak really levels up, there is not much Felix can do. Though I just haven't seen that from him this tournament.

Hope for a great contest
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Good post. Maybe this is Felix break out tournament where he goes to another level. We will see.

He does have great strengths and yes faster courts suit him more. His serve and FH are 2 big weapons when firing.

Let’s see what happens and is expected to be hot all next week.
 
Would love to see FAA come through for his generation(other than the big 2), and it should be his time. It will be a choke if he doesn’t win this against an old man.

Having said that…I don’t see how he has a snowballs chance against one of the all time greats, and someone as cunning as Novak. I took FAA in 5, but wouldn’t be surprised to see ND in 3 quick ones. Hopefully a brawl.
 
Whether the match is first or 3rd in centre court will make lots of difference.
FAA gets more rest plus his serve and forehand will be more powerful in indoor condition
 
Waves said:
Would love to see FAA come through for his generation(other than the big 2), and it should be his time. It will be a choke if he doesn’t win this against an old man.

Having said that…I don’t see how he has a snowballs chance against one of the all time greats, and someone as cunning as Novak. I took FAA in 5, but wouldn’t be surprised to see ND in 3 quick ones. Hopefully a brawl.
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These two things contradict each other, how will it be a choke if he doesn't even have a chance?
 
I previously said Djokovic's winning this Wimbledon but after yesterday I take it back. He is still a good favourite but none of his matches from here on are a given.

Reason being he has a near consistent drop in level of play. It may happen after 1st or 2nd set but it 100% will happen.

And as he gets even more matches under his belt, his ability to return from those drops ala Rinderknech match is only going to fall.

Had Roman's own level not fallen off a cliff in 4th, or if he hadn't made those easy errors in the 1st game in the 4th where he had breakpoint, last match could have gotten very complicated because Novak was running out of fuel.


I do think he beats FAA, but that his chances of doing so will decrease by a significant amount if FAA is able to get one of the first two sets. Usually that would mean a 4 sets win for Novak but given Novak's physical conditioning and even mental impatience, it would be a sign of 5 setter topsy turvy match that anyone of them can win.
 
ALCARAZWON said:
Djokovic doesn't waste his energy, he's playing smart, while the other contenders are fighting to win tiebreakers.
Poor old Sinner has played 4 tiebreakers already...
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I will agree with you on this. Djokovic IQ and smart play when to let sets go is amazing.

I’m with you on this. I think people freak out at him dropping sets but he is being strategic here too. He will let a set go if it gets away from him. He been doing it for years it just more harder to still win now.

He was even doing this again old Federer in 2019 Wimbledon when he was younger player. Fed outplayed him most the match but Djoko locked in for 3 sets and edged them all.

Novak mission is always to sneak out 3 sets and the ones he has a chance to win to sneak them. If a set gets away from him now he lets it go and I fully agree with this.

It allowed him to extend his career this long and it allowed him to win slams or still be in a position to fight for them at 39.

He know he can’t fight every point and set now so he trying to pick his battles. The problem is against someone like sinner it more difficult to do this and clutch it out but that’s his plan.
 
Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
He might drop a set or even 2 but can Felix get 3 sets is the question? An unreliable BH, not a great return and ability to choke make it tough for him.
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I don't think so, Djokovic is going to take the cake on this one. I would guess he dropped one set, but even then Felix has been playing out of his mind, he didn't drop a set until that ADF match in R16 so he's dropped 1 less set than Djokovic along the way. I'm still not fully persuaded by him though.
 
4UTRMoutet said:
True, Oldkovic has a habit of losing sets and matches to randoms here and there but utterly dismantling anyone in the top 10 not named Sincaraz.
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Oldovic has to save energy when he can. He trying to do this knowing the hot weather and the fact sinner is looming.

He needs to get to semis in best possible physical shape, with an energy tank, no injury, etc. This is why he will give up on some sets. He can’t fight every set and point on high level anymore.
 
This is the sort of match that if Felix took himself seriously as a potential champion, he would win in 4 sets with a couple of tough sets while ultimately relentlessly pounding Djokovic a bit like in Novak's first round match but with more margin and a much better serve, all of which he should be able to do by now. In such a match we'd see the limits of Djokovic's current movement which is nothing like what it was at his formidable peak.

However, Djokovic is a great big match player and Felix is not. That's such a big part of why much of the rest of the tennis analysis doesn't matter nearly as much as it should. It would be great for tennis more generally to have a player like Felix stepping up to be a consistent force, working on his backhand and forecourt play as well as settling his mind so that he could confidently perform in situations such as these but that would be asking a lot from him.
 
intrepidish said:
This is the sort of match that if Felix took himself seriously as a potential champion, he would win in 4 sets with a couple of tough sets while ultimately relentlessly pounding Djokovic a bit like in Novak's first round match but with more margin and a much better serve, all of which he should be able to do by now. In such a match we'd see the limits of Djokovic's current movement which is nothing like what it was at his formidable peak.

However, Djokovic is a great big match player and Felix is not. That's such a big part of why much of the rest of the tennis analysis doesn't matter nearly as much as it should. It would be great for tennis more generally to have a player like Felix stepping up to be a consistent force, working on his backhand and forecourt play as well as settling his mind so that he could confidently perform in situations such as these but that would be asking a lot from him.
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FAA has some glaring items of weakness in his game. Not least the backhand, net-game and most of all his consistency+mental strength. These are some of the things Novak literally feasts on.
However depleted Novak might be (and to me it seems, he isn't significantly), FAA is not champion material to cause the upset. The reverse is more likely with this being another Novak routine win.
To beat Novak you need to be either as good as Alcaraz/Sinner or need to have a crazy breakout performance such as the one by Fonesca. FAA is in neither camp. So, expect normal service in the QF..
 
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TennisFan3 said:
FAA has some glaring items of weakness in his game. Not least the backhand, net-game and most of all his consistency+mental strength. These are some of the things Novak literally feasts on.
However depleted Novak might be (and to me it seems, he isn't significantly), FAA is not champion material to cause the upset. The reverse is more likely with this being another Novak routine win.
To beat Novak you need to be either as good as Alcaraz/Sinner or need to have a crazy breakout performance such as the one by Fonesca. FAA is in neither camp, expect normal service in the QF..
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Many unknown names have comfortably troubled Djokovic in the recent past.. with FAA it will be difficult to do S and V as he can pass well of both hands.. He will also not allow much rhythm as he comes to the net frequently..it will be tricky.. except FAA to edge out..either way..both wont be able get through Sinner..
 
Felix has one plan, serve big and hit forehands. Against Djokovic, the best returner and one of the best at changing directions, I think he is gonna have problems.
Djokovic in 4.
 
Hitman said:
These two things contradict each other, how will it be a choke if he doesn't even have a chance?
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Yes you make a good point, however…

FAA is 25, has been a pro almost 10 years, is 6’4”, can hit the cover off of the ball on his FH, has a good serve, BH. His OH and net game is reminiscent of his opponent, that is, somewhat lacking. He is playing an almost 40 year old man. There will be a moment in this game where the match is on his racquet…probably a couple…which will be obvious in hindsight. If he doesn’t tighten up too much, ie choke, he carves a path to victory. He should and needs to win, or he will be a pigeon like Tsitsipas.

Novak has a game that is a hammer, making everything else look like a nail. He has perfected this. He also makes it so obvious why tennis is such a mentally gruelling sport, and is so difficult yet beautiful. He just seems unable to be beaten at certain times. But here will be a window for FAA, like in the ‘21 USO, or ‘23 WB where ND can have his own choke. I don’t think we will see it here. But if we do, it’s because FAA rose to the moment.
 
I suspect many in this thread haven’t been watching this tournament. FAA has started slow and taken a set+ to find his range. Once found, he’s been cruising. If he follows that pattern, he has a real shot against Djokovic.
 
Winners or Errors said:
I suspect many in this thread haven’t been watching this tournament. FAA has started slow and taken a set+ to find his range. Once found, he’s been cruising. If he follows that pattern, he has a real shot against Djokovic.
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Agree.. I think he felt match vs Fokina would be of small margins and played cautiously and then believed he can easily handle him till that mini lapse..
 
I hope Novak can win because then the narrative can still be said it takes the very best player in world to still stop him winning a slam.

Even if Felix wins, Novak reaching the quarters at 39 after little match play is still a great run.
 
I think for Novak to win under these conditions, going to be very hot, then he is going to have to be on his game right from get go, especially his serve and his return game, which needs to really gel.

If he does, he can win this in 4 sets. However, if not he is at least going 5 sets and possibly out of tournament. He definitely cannot allow his focus to stray, like last two matches.
 
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