nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
While the RG contender thread got a lot of conversation going, I do not expect a lot of interest in Wimbledon. But since this is another niche surface, here we go.
1. Alcaraz - Reigning champion of Queens and Wimbledon.
Last year Alcaraz was champion of major grass tournament. He beat top players by ranking or grass pedigree on the way.
He beat Dimitrov in queens who has been to semifinal of Wimbledon and former Queens champion.
He beat Berrettini in Wimbledon who has been to the final of Wimbledon.
He destroyed Medvedev who was in his first Wimbledon semis.
And he beat Djokovic in the final after being breadsticked in the first set. This was a gutsy performance that made him youngest champion ever since Hewitt to win this trophy. Earlier than Federer/Nadal at age just 20.
This year, his performance is hit and miss. He has performed well on IW and RG which benefitted his performance but both are among the slower courts on the circuit. While in Miami, AO which are the only fast courts he has played, he was thrashed. Still the logic dictates that he is the proverbial favorite to win this event until proven otherwise. Especially on the back of another slam win.
2. Sinner - Reigning world number 1
Last year he entered 3 grass events. But he lost very badly in first two. He was not fully fit for the prep events. But still it was a bad look.
Then in Wimbledon, he reached first semis but on the back of very mediocre draw till semis. Similar to RG24. Highest ranked player he beat was 79. In the semifinal he lost without taking a set vs Djokovic.
He has changed his entire year post Wimbledon though. He is 59-6 in matches and his losses came to Djokovic 1 , Alcaraz 2 , Shelton 1, Zverev 1 and Lajovic 1. While he is playing better than ever, he is still unproven in slam finals. He has just been to 1 and was far from dominant. Also his physicality can be an issue.
But better than these two, I suspect how much his serve will hold in outdoor grass. Last year Djokovic was defeated when his serve became ineffective. Can he also see same fate. We are about to see. I can't put Sinner ahead of Alcaraz just yet here.
3. Medvedev - Medvedev stock is trading down and deservedly. His serve has lost its impact a bit in last 2 years. But I see this making a slight comeback in coming months.
Medvedev has good enough game to break opponents serve on grass and his own serve is a weapon. I would not overrate him though as he has failed to win a single grass title but made to multiple finals of Halle and small tournaments.
In the end , he need to play at his best to beat small time players and reach semis+ at Wimbledon but if he reaches there, he has experience.
3. Zverev - Now Zverev is not a great player on grass by any metric. He has never reached QF of Wimbledon. But he is playing at higher level than the rest.
But the player is very hit and miss. He has yet to show his mettle on grass and yet to show consistency accross the year. Also he looked quiet tired by long clay season. I am trending down on Zverev. But he may get to QF for the first year here.
5. Dimitrov - He is the people's champion. His game is naturally suited to grass and he has beaten players from this list already on the fastest courts. Including Zverev Alcaraz and Medvedev.
Dimitrov with his improved confidence is a force to see this year. Only problem is his highest level is not good enough to consistently come through the draw to last rounds. If he is able to get through the draw early on, he can be legit contender for the title.
6. Rublev - This guy is built for fast court tennis. His best at wimbledon maybe QF but he can beat all of the top players above him just by continuous attacking baseline tennis.
His return numbers are horrendous on grass so I think its his achilles heel. But if he won Madrid, he is definitely in good condition to play on grass.
7. Hurkacz - This is remotest chance. I don't value the servebots as much as the rest. A lot needs to go well for them to win a slam.
Even a bot like Isner only once managed to get to Wimbledon semis and Anderson reached the QF multiple times. But they are not able to rely on extreme narrow margin over BO5 7 matches.
Hurkacz has gotten insane on serve and his return game is improving in 2024. But with under 14% break chances , he doesn't seem to have a realistic chance vs the field. He may take out everyone else on this list though so a dangerous wild card.
8. Tommy Paul - He has the stats to prove he can beat the top guys. His return numbers are better than Rublev.
Guys I didn't consider to be playing for the title.
1. Fritz - Similar issue to Hurkacz. Very bad return stats
2. Tsitsipas - Horrendous return stats
3. Ruud - Doesn't have massive serve like all above or even good serve like Rublev. Maybe Alcaraz is worse server but he can play much smarter with other weapons.
4. ADM - No weapons
5. Rune - Complete collapse after atp finals 2023.
1. Alcaraz - Reigning champion of Queens and Wimbledon.
Last year Alcaraz was champion of major grass tournament. He beat top players by ranking or grass pedigree on the way.
He beat Dimitrov in queens who has been to semifinal of Wimbledon and former Queens champion.
He beat Berrettini in Wimbledon who has been to the final of Wimbledon.
He destroyed Medvedev who was in his first Wimbledon semis.
And he beat Djokovic in the final after being breadsticked in the first set. This was a gutsy performance that made him youngest champion ever since Hewitt to win this trophy. Earlier than Federer/Nadal at age just 20.
This year, his performance is hit and miss. He has performed well on IW and RG which benefitted his performance but both are among the slower courts on the circuit. While in Miami, AO which are the only fast courts he has played, he was thrashed. Still the logic dictates that he is the proverbial favorite to win this event until proven otherwise. Especially on the back of another slam win.
2. Sinner - Reigning world number 1
Last year he entered 3 grass events. But he lost very badly in first two. He was not fully fit for the prep events. But still it was a bad look.
Then in Wimbledon, he reached first semis but on the back of very mediocre draw till semis. Similar to RG24. Highest ranked player he beat was 79. In the semifinal he lost without taking a set vs Djokovic.
He has changed his entire year post Wimbledon though. He is 59-6 in matches and his losses came to Djokovic 1 , Alcaraz 2 , Shelton 1, Zverev 1 and Lajovic 1. While he is playing better than ever, he is still unproven in slam finals. He has just been to 1 and was far from dominant. Also his physicality can be an issue.
But better than these two, I suspect how much his serve will hold in outdoor grass. Last year Djokovic was defeated when his serve became ineffective. Can he also see same fate. We are about to see. I can't put Sinner ahead of Alcaraz just yet here.
3. Medvedev - Medvedev stock is trading down and deservedly. His serve has lost its impact a bit in last 2 years. But I see this making a slight comeback in coming months.
Medvedev has good enough game to break opponents serve on grass and his own serve is a weapon. I would not overrate him though as he has failed to win a single grass title but made to multiple finals of Halle and small tournaments.
In the end , he need to play at his best to beat small time players and reach semis+ at Wimbledon but if he reaches there, he has experience.
3. Zverev - Now Zverev is not a great player on grass by any metric. He has never reached QF of Wimbledon. But he is playing at higher level than the rest.
But the player is very hit and miss. He has yet to show his mettle on grass and yet to show consistency accross the year. Also he looked quiet tired by long clay season. I am trending down on Zverev. But he may get to QF for the first year here.
5. Dimitrov - He is the people's champion. His game is naturally suited to grass and he has beaten players from this list already on the fastest courts. Including Zverev Alcaraz and Medvedev.
Dimitrov with his improved confidence is a force to see this year. Only problem is his highest level is not good enough to consistently come through the draw to last rounds. If he is able to get through the draw early on, he can be legit contender for the title.
6. Rublev - This guy is built for fast court tennis. His best at wimbledon maybe QF but he can beat all of the top players above him just by continuous attacking baseline tennis.
His return numbers are horrendous on grass so I think its his achilles heel. But if he won Madrid, he is definitely in good condition to play on grass.
7. Hurkacz - This is remotest chance. I don't value the servebots as much as the rest. A lot needs to go well for them to win a slam.
Even a bot like Isner only once managed to get to Wimbledon semis and Anderson reached the QF multiple times. But they are not able to rely on extreme narrow margin over BO5 7 matches.
Hurkacz has gotten insane on serve and his return game is improving in 2024. But with under 14% break chances , he doesn't seem to have a realistic chance vs the field. He may take out everyone else on this list though so a dangerous wild card.
8. Tommy Paul - He has the stats to prove he can beat the top guys. His return numbers are better than Rublev.
Guys I didn't consider to be playing for the title.
1. Fritz - Similar issue to Hurkacz. Very bad return stats
2. Tsitsipas - Horrendous return stats
3. Ruud - Doesn't have massive serve like all above or even good serve like Rublev. Maybe Alcaraz is worse server but he can play much smarter with other weapons.
4. ADM - No weapons
5. Rune - Complete collapse after atp finals 2023.
Rao still teasing us with one last epic run on grass!! Sign me up….
