Wimbledon Contenders 2024

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
While the RG contender thread got a lot of conversation going, I do not expect a lot of interest in Wimbledon. But since this is another niche surface, here we go.

1. Alcaraz - Reigning champion of Queens and Wimbledon.
Last year Alcaraz was champion of major grass tournament. He beat top players by ranking or grass pedigree on the way.
He beat Dimitrov in queens who has been to semifinal of Wimbledon and former Queens champion.
He beat Berrettini in Wimbledon who has been to the final of Wimbledon.
He destroyed Medvedev who was in his first Wimbledon semis.
And he beat Djokovic in the final after being breadsticked in the first set. This was a gutsy performance that made him youngest champion ever since Hewitt to win this trophy. Earlier than Federer/Nadal at age just 20.
This year, his performance is hit and miss. He has performed well on IW and RG which benefitted his performance but both are among the slower courts on the circuit. While in Miami, AO which are the only fast courts he has played, he was thrashed. Still the logic dictates that he is the proverbial favorite to win this event until proven otherwise. Especially on the back of another slam win.
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2. Sinner - Reigning world number 1
Last year he entered 3 grass events. But he lost very badly in first two. He was not fully fit for the prep events. But still it was a bad look.
Then in Wimbledon, he reached first semis but on the back of very mediocre draw till semis. Similar to RG24. Highest ranked player he beat was 79. In the semifinal he lost without taking a set vs Djokovic.
He has changed his entire year post Wimbledon though. He is 59-6 in matches and his losses came to Djokovic 1 , Alcaraz 2 , Shelton 1, Zverev 1 and Lajovic 1. While he is playing better than ever, he is still unproven in slam finals. He has just been to 1 and was far from dominant. Also his physicality can be an issue.
But better than these two, I suspect how much his serve will hold in outdoor grass. Last year Djokovic was defeated when his serve became ineffective. Can he also see same fate. We are about to see. I can't put Sinner ahead of Alcaraz just yet here.

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3. Medvedev - Medvedev stock is trading down and deservedly. His serve has lost its impact a bit in last 2 years. But I see this making a slight comeback in coming months.
Medvedev has good enough game to break opponents serve on grass and his own serve is a weapon. I would not overrate him though as he has failed to win a single grass title but made to multiple finals of Halle and small tournaments.
In the end , he need to play at his best to beat small time players and reach semis+ at Wimbledon but if he reaches there, he has experience.
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3. Zverev - Now Zverev is not a great player on grass by any metric. He has never reached QF of Wimbledon. But he is playing at higher level than the rest.
But the player is very hit and miss. He has yet to show his mettle on grass and yet to show consistency accross the year. Also he looked quiet tired by long clay season. I am trending down on Zverev. But he may get to QF for the first year here.
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5. Dimitrov - He is the people's champion. His game is naturally suited to grass and he has beaten players from this list already on the fastest courts. Including Zverev Alcaraz and Medvedev.
Dimitrov with his improved confidence is a force to see this year. Only problem is his highest level is not good enough to consistently come through the draw to last rounds. If he is able to get through the draw early on, he can be legit contender for the title.
dimitrov-wimbledon-2023-saturday.jpg


6. Rublev - This guy is built for fast court tennis. His best at wimbledon maybe QF but he can beat all of the top players above him just by continuous attacking baseline tennis.
His return numbers are horrendous on grass so I think its his achilles heel. But if he won Madrid, he is definitely in good condition to play on grass.

7. Hurkacz - This is remotest chance. I don't value the servebots as much as the rest. A lot needs to go well for them to win a slam.
Even a bot like Isner only once managed to get to Wimbledon semis and Anderson reached the QF multiple times. But they are not able to rely on extreme narrow margin over BO5 7 matches.
Hurkacz has gotten insane on serve and his return game is improving in 2024. But with under 14% break chances , he doesn't seem to have a realistic chance vs the field. He may take out everyone else on this list though so a dangerous wild card.

8. Tommy Paul - He has the stats to prove he can beat the top guys. His return numbers are better than Rublev.

Guys I didn't consider to be playing for the title.

1. Fritz - Similar issue to Hurkacz. Very bad return stats
2. Tsitsipas - Horrendous return stats
3. Ruud - Doesn't have massive serve like all above or even good serve like Rublev. Maybe Alcaraz is worse server but he can play much smarter with other weapons.
4. ADM - No weapons
5. Rune - Complete collapse after atp finals 2023.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Djokovic is most likely a withdrawl to me. If he plays then I will have to look at his health first. I can't see him going deep here considering he is not fully fit, not in form and wants OG on clay a month later.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
As a side note, did not participating in 2022 Wimbledon hurt the players from Russia in 2023?

Rublev reached R16 in 2021 and QF in 2023. If he had more time to play in Wimbledon, which is very niche surface, maybe he would have played even better.
Medvedev reached R16 in 2021 and SF in 2023. He was looking good in 2021 losing in fifth to Hurkacz tbh. Could have faced federer in QF.
Khachanov reached QF in 2021 as well.

These 3 guys are good players on grass, not great but they have their weapons to work on grass. Maybe something to think about.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
With Novak likely skipping and Alcaraz and Sinner in questionable physical states (and Alcaraz more concerned with the Olympics in the first place, it seems), I actually wouldn't be too surprised to see Medvedev vulture this Wimbledon. Let chaos reign.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
'return aggressively' from the back wall while standing behind the line judges?

Is this just trolling, or do you actually believe Medvedev is an aggressive returner on grass? I hope it's the former.
He played aggressive returns vs Sinner in both Melbourne and Miami. Almost worked in AO and flopped horribly in Miami.
In last year on fast
 

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
I think you're overrating Med, Zed and Rublev, while underrating Alex de Minaur who's in career best form, likes grass and just made QF in his worst slam.

Alex de Minaur hits a flat ball, is offensive-minded (albeit underpowered), has a very good return game and knows how to move on grass. He's definitely not a top contender but I wouldn't leave him out of the conversation.

Another guy who plays attacking tennis and I think can play above his ranking is Ugo Humbert, who's also had career-best results in recent times.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
In last year on fast courts, his performance is very good.

SF in Wimbledon - Beatdown Alcaraz
F in Vienna - Close loss to Sinner
SF in ATP finals - Alcaraz
F in AO - Close loss to Sinner
SF in Miami - Beatdown by Sinner

Only problem have been Sinner and Alcaraz

I see him playing very well in Wimbledon this year again.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
I think you're overrating Med, Zed and Rublev, while underrating Alex de Minaur who's in career best form, likes grass and just made QF in his worst slam.
Maybe you are right. But I have already created thread last year for Medvedev chances for Wimbledon. More than 55% of people thought he can win Wimbledon then. He has played very well on fast courts since then. Some misses are ok.

For Zverev, he has played in QF or above of last 3 slams. QF, SF, F. Do you see the trajectory.
Rublev I agree may be a controversial pick but he has shown his level before on grass.

ADM is great retriever. But even a less than average guy I fear will take him out because of his lack of weapons.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Look at an example of his 'aggressive returning' on grass


So aggressive. He isn't even in the picture on Alcaraz's serve. But he's a super aggressive returner apparently.
Actually that returning may have cost him the match or maybe he is not that talented. But have you seen his match vs Sinner in AO?
 

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
For Zverev, he has played in QF or above of last 3 slams. QF, SF, F. Do you see the trajectory.
RG is one of his better slams though. He can't move on the green stuff.

As for Med, ever since his 2022 hernia surgery, his serve is a pale shadow of what it used to be. He has compensated that in part by tidying up his game, improving his forehand and his tactics, but on grass he needs the serve. Also his usual back fence returning strategy is most vulnerable on grass where people are much more aggressive going to the net, see the match with Eubanks last year.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
RG is one of his better slams though. He can't move on the green stuff.

As for Med, ever since his 2022 hernia surgery, Med's serve is a pale shadow of what it used to be. He has compensated that in part by tidying up his game, improving his forehand and his tactics, but in grass he needs the serve.
I am ok with trending down on Zverev. He was and is a mug in BO5. I just think his current form is best he has ever played in slams. It may be just about him finally maturing as a player. TBH last year Sinner USOpen match is where I saw massive improvement in his mentality. He is never going to be rock solid but at least he will fight.
 
Sinner is a virtual lock for the title this year imo.

Ruud is not a contender at W but I don’t think his serve is the issue. Ruud has a huge serve that translates anywhere. It doesn’t get affected by the surface the same way his forehand does because he doesn’t have to worry about setup time or the bounce.

Ruud’s biggest block on grass is that his two biggest weapons - forehand and movement are not at their best on this surface, and his methodical and very skillfull/reactive play patterns translate better to clay where he gets more time on the ball to set up that massive forehand and plan points in real time.

His second biggest weapon behind that forehand is his incredible movement but he doesn’t have the same confidence in his movement on grass as he does on hard court and clay and he gets a bit restricted and easier to hit through and can’t use his defence as a comfort zone.

The pick of Medvedev as one of the favourites is very interesting and I’m inclined to agree. He has actually underachieved on grass massively, partially through his own fault and partially through external circumstances beyond his control like being banned from Wimbledon 2022 being a non-Open tournament.

Med showed very early in his career that he has a serious aptitude for grass, and it’s another chance for him to show the hyper aggressive attacking play that he used very effectively for the first two sets in the AO final.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Zverev also has not seen his best ever played on grass. Due to constant interruptions.
2020 Covid break
2021 Massive serve issues losing a winnable match with 19 DF
2022 Injury
2023 Returning from injury - maybe this is excuse I don't know.

If he is playing his best, then these things shouldn't matter.
 
The women’s tournament is also fascinating this year. IGA was obviously very dominant at RG and has spoken about wanting a channel slam and dominating clay and grass together.

Grass has always been a bit of a mission impossible for her, but she has made two massive upgrades to her game that made her even more dominant at RG this year and could help change her fortunes on grass.

She has bulked up her serve MASSIVELY. Almost a 10mph increase in her average serve speed at RG this year. More aggressive serving will definitely translate at Wimbledon.

The other change she made is getting way more aggressive on the backhand return, and figuring out ways to take the backhand return very early and aggressively while retaining a high margin for error to pressure the server.

Two massive changes. Bigger and better serving and a more aggressive reliable backhand return. The two changes we have been requesting from a certain Greek philosopher for the last five years :mad:
 

travlerajm

Talk Tennis Guru
Also, Milos has the responsibility to carry the torch as the best grass player of his entire generation of players born in the 90s. You know he is going to bring it.
 

InsuranceMan

Hall of Fame
I think you're overrating Med, Zed and Rublev, while underrating Alex de Minaur who's in career best form, likes grass and just made QF in his worst slam.

Alex de Minaur hits a flat ball, is offensive-minded (albeit underpowered), has a very good return game and knows how to move on grass. He's definitely not a top contender but I wouldn't leave him out of the conversation.

Another guy who plays attacking tennis and I think can play above his ranking is Ugo Humbert, who's also had career-best results in recent times.
@nolefam_2024 doesn’t know anybody not named Djokovic. Great point about ADM, he’s under appreciated especially on grass. OP is equating Madrid to Wimbledon? For whatever reason? And therefore Rublev > Hurcakz which is just not true at all. Not saying either of them are a lock and either could lose very early but that’s simply not a good take. And then, at the end, Tommy Paul is put in at number 8? I’m the biggest Tommy Paul fan there is but that’s just not a good take. I’m not even looking at the rankings list and I would put Struff ahead of him, or even Shelton or Eubanks based on level ceilings since it’s a run for the title.
 

ojo rojo

Legend
I think you're overrating Med, Zed and Rublev, while underrating Alex de Minaur who's in career best form, likes grass and just made QF in his worst slam.

Alex de Minaur hits a flat ball, is offensive-minded (albeit underpowered), has a very good return game and knows how to move on grass. He's definitely not a top contender but I wouldn't leave him out of the conversation.

Another guy who plays attacking tennis and I think can play above his ranking is Ugo Humbert, who's also had career-best results in recent times.
Agree with most of this, however,
Alcaraz beat ADM without breaking a sweat in last year's Queens final. He won the event having only ever played 4 pro matches on grass prior to that.
Plus ADM practically got a bye in the form of his pigeon MuryGOAT in the first round lol
 

ChaelAZ

G.O.A.T.
While the RG contender thread got a lot of conversation going, I do not expect a lot of interest in Wimbledon. But since this is another niche surface, here we go.

1. Alcaraz - Reigning champion of Queens and Wimbledon.
Last year Alcaraz was champion of major grass tournament. He beat top players by ranking or grass pedigree on the way.
He beat Dimitrov in queens who has been to semifinal of Wimbledon and former Queens champion.
He beat Berrettini in Wimbledon who has been to the final of Wimbledon.
He destroyed Medvedev who was in his first Wimbledon semis.
And he beat Djokovic in the final after being breadsticked in the first set. This was a gutsy performance that made him youngest champion ever since Hewitt to win this trophy. Earlier than Federer/Nadal at age just 20.
This year, his performance is hit and miss. He has performed well on IW and RG which benefitted his performance but both are among the slower courts on the circuit. While in Miami, AO which are the only fast courts he has played, he was thrashed. Still the logic dictates that he is the proverbial favorite to win this event until proven otherwise. Especially on the back of another slam win.
Britain-Wimbledon-Tennis-314_1689531535208_1689531599944.jpg


2. Sinner - Reigning world number 1
Last year he entered 3 grass events. But he lost very badly in first two. He was not fully fit for the prep events. But still it was a bad look.
Then in Wimbledon, he reached first semis but on the back of very mediocre draw till semis. Similar to RG24. Highest ranked player he beat was 79. In the semifinal he lost without taking a set vs Djokovic.
He has changed his entire year post Wimbledon though. He is 59-6 in matches and his losses came to Djokovic 1 , Alcaraz 2 , Shelton 1, Zverev 1 and Lajovic 1. While he is playing better than ever, he is still unproven in slam finals. He has just been to 1 and was far from dominant. Also his physicality can be an issue.
But better than these two, I suspect how much his serve will hold in outdoor grass. Last year Djokovic was defeated when his serve became ineffective. Can he also see same fate. We are about to see. I can't put Sinner ahead of Alcaraz just yet here.

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3. Medvedev - Medvedev stock is trading down and deservedly. His serve has lost its impact a bit in last 2 years. But I see this making a slight comeback in coming months.
Medvedev has good enough game to break opponents serve on grass and his own serve is a weapon. I would not overrate him though as he has failed to win a single grass title but made to multiple finals of Halle and small tournaments.
In the end , he need to play at his best to beat small time players and reach semis+ at Wimbledon but if he reaches there, he has experience.
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3. Zverev - Now Zverev is not a great player on grass by any metric. He has never reached QF of Wimbledon. But he is playing at higher level than the rest.
But the player is very hit and miss. He has yet to show his mettle on grass and yet to show consistency accross the year. Also he looked quiet tired by long clay season. I am trending down on Zverev. But he may get to QF for the first year here.
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5. Dimitrov - He is the people's champion. His game is naturally suited to grass and he has beaten players from this list already on the fastest courts. Including Zverev Alcaraz and Medvedev.
Dimitrov with his improved confidence is a force to see this year. Only problem is his highest level is not good enough to consistently come through the draw to last rounds. If he is able to get through the draw early on, he can be legit contender for the title.
dimitrov-wimbledon-2023-saturday.jpg


6. Rublev - This guy is built for fast court tennis. His best at wimbledon maybe QF but he can beat all of the top players above him just by continuous attacking baseline tennis.
His return numbers are horrendous on grass so I think its his achilles heel. But if he won Madrid, he is definitely in good condition to play on grass.

7. Hurkacz - This is remotest chance. I don't value the servebots as much as the rest. A lot needs to go well for them to win a slam.
Even a bot like Isner only once managed to get to Wimbledon semis and Anderson reached the QF multiple times. But they are not able to rely on extreme narrow margin over BO5 7 matches.
Hurkacz has gotten insane on serve and his return game is improving in 2024. But with under 14% break chances , he doesn't seem to have a realistic chance vs the field. He may take out everyone else on this list though so a dangerous wild card.

8. Tommy Paul - He has the stats to prove he can beat the top guys. His return numbers are better than Rublev.

Guys I didn't consider to be playing for the title.

1. Fritz - Similar issue to Hurkacz. Very bad return stats
2. Tsitsipas - Horrendous return stats
3. Ruud - Doesn't have massive serve like all above or even good serve like Rublev. Maybe Alcaraz is worse server but he can play much smarter with other weapons.
4. ADM - No weapons
5. Rune - Complete collapse after atp finals 2023.

Agree with most of it, but would take Zverev out, move Hurz and Rubby up, and plop like Rune or maybe Sonego in that last slot.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Guys mentioned here including Shelton, Eubanks have horrible return stats. I don't see how just serve will carry a player to final stages of a slam.

Maybe if the serve was super effective like Raonic (if fit), Hurkacz, then they at least have a chance. But that is servebot luck of draw.
While I have thought of removing Tommy Paul from the contender list but kept him at the last place.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Agree with most of it, but would take Zverev out, move Hurz and Rubby up, and plop like Rune or maybe Sonego in that last slot.
Zverev is second in the race though. He has played well many times in 2024. Played Dimitrov very close in Miami SF and would be tougher challenge than him in the final.
 

The Blond Blur

G.O.A.T.
A world where "Daniil Medvedev' is the 3rd favourite for Wimbledon is a sad, sad world indeed.
Dude made the SF through the softest draw imaginable. And when he finally had to play someone who had more than just a pulse and a will to live he got mauled.

1R: Arthur Fery - If you’re like me you’re probably asking yourself who is Arthur Fery? Well allow me to enlighten you dear friends. At the time of Wimby 2023 Fery was a spry 21 year old 5’8 munchkin with a tour level record of 0-1 in singles and was 1-1 in doubles. He has since improved his record to *checks notes* 0-1 in singles and 1-1 in doubles.

2R: Mannarino - My description of his threat level will be proportional to the number of hairs he has on his head starting now:

3R: Fucsovics - Besides having a very hilariously funny name to say in English the only other thing I can say about him is that he’s far more accomplished as a model than he is as a tennis player.

4R: Lehechka - Who was coming off of a very draining 5 setter the round before, and then proceeded to retire once down 2-0.

QF: Eubanks - Christopher was playing in his first ever Wimby main draw after failing to qualify for the tournament in 2018-2019, 2021-2022. His results in those qualifying draws were: Q1, Q2, Q1, Q2. He played in 4 other GS main draws (all on HC) before Wimby 2023. He went 0-4 in those appearances.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Zverev performance in 2024 vs entire career
Hold 90.3% BRK 20.0% Ace 10.1% DF 1.8% least ever

2023 HLD 84.2 BRK 23.1 Ace 10.2 DF 3.7
2022 HLD 84.2 BRK 26.9 Ace 9.7 DF 4.9
2021 HLD 86.1 BRK 27.5 Ace 13.4 DF 5.1

I think he is maturing as a player especially on serve. His return numbers have taken a hit though.
 
@nolefam_2024 doesn’t know anybody not named Djokovic. Great point about ADM, he’s under appreciated especially on grass. OP is equating Madrid to Wimbledon? For whatever reason? And therefore Rublev > Hurcakz which is just not true at all. Not saying either of them are a lock and either could lose very early but that’s simply not a good take. And then, at the end, Tommy Paul is put in at number 8? I’m the biggest Tommy Paul fan there is but that’s just not a good take. I’m not even looking at the rankings list and I would put Struff ahead of him, or even Shelton or Eubanks based on level ceilings since it’s a run for the title.
Agree about ADM. He takes the ball so ridiculously early. Helps him get great value from his game on grass. He is quite skillful at transitioning to net as well.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Dude made the SF through the softest draw imaginable. And when he finally had to play someone who had more than just a pulse and a will to live he got mauled.

1R: Arthur Fery - If you’re like me you’re probably asking yourself who is Arthur Fery? Well allow me to enlighten you dear friends. At the time of Wimby 2023 Fery was a spry 21 year old 5’8 munchkin with a tour level record of 0-1 in singles and was 1-1 in doubles. He has since improved his record to *checks notes* 0-1 in singles and 1-1 in doubles.

2R: Mannarino - My description of his threat level will be proportional to the number of hairs he has on his head starting now:

3R: Fucsovics - Besides having a very hilariously funny name to say in English the only other thing I can say about him is that he’s far more accomplished as a model than he is as a tennis player.

4R: Lehechka - Who was coming off of a very draining 5 setter the round before, and then proceeded to retire once down 2-0.

QF: Eubanks - Christopher was playing in his first ever Wimby main draw after failing to qualify for the tournament in 2018-2019, 2021-2022. His results in those qualifying draws were: Q1, Q2, Q1, Q2. He played in 4 other GS main draws (all on HC) before Wimby 2023. He went 0-4 in those appearances.
Fucsovics and Mannarino are good enough players for R2/R3 matches. What else you want from R2/3.

Yes Medvedev was not at all tested by anyone but he played well as well till SF.
In 2019 while Goffin was still somewhat ok, he beat Medvedev in five.
2021 Medvedev did screw up losing to Hurkacz in 5. It was not a great show. Reached R16.
2023 he reached sf.

This year he is playing worse than last year. So you may be on pt but Medvedev related data is very small. Just like Zverev related. Both missed 2022 and 2020 was cancelled.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
There are 3 contenders IMO.

Raz, Sinner and Meddy. Beyond that the speculation gets silly because we know none of these players are reliable bets
Neither is Medvedev. And Sinner and Raz are both super young. So that is what made this a unique chance for many to win Wimbledon.
 

The Blond Blur

G.O.A.T.
Fucsovics and Mannarino are good enough players for R2/R3 matches. What else you want from R2/3.

Yes Medvedev was not at all tested by anyone but he played well as well till SF.
In 2019 while Goffin was still somewhat ok, he beat Medvedev in five.
2021 Medvedev did screw up losing to Hurkacz in 5. It was not a great show. Reached R16.
2023 he reached sf.

This year he is playing worse than last year. So you may be on pt but Medvedev related data is very small. Just like Zverev related. Both missed 2022 and 2020 was cancelled.
My point is he didn’t face anyone dangerous prior to the SF. Once he did he was pasted. You could have take his draw and scrambled it up and everyone of those guys would be 1-2R level opponents. He’s done nothing to prove he’s a threat to win Wimby so far in his career. He’s certainly not a top 3 contender.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
My point is he didn’t face anyone dangerous prior to the SF. Once he did he was pasted. You could have take his draw and scrambled it up and everyone of those guys would be 1-2R level opponents. He’s done nothing to prove he’s a threat to win Wimby so far in his career. He’s certainly not a top 3 contender.
True. But looking back at the last 4 slams, the worst he got a loss was at RG vs ADM in R16.
2 slam finals in last 3 is no joke.
 
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