Wimbledon Men's Top 4 (+2) Seed Draws + Analysis

TripleATeam

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Sinner
R1: Nardi
R2: Vukic
R3: Shapovalov
R4: Paul
QF: Shelton/Musetti
SF: Djokovic
F: Alcaraz

Alcaraz
R1: Fognini
R2: Tarvet
R3: FAA
R4: Rublev/Tsitsipas
QF: Rune/Tiafoe
SF: Zverev
F: Sinner/Djokovic

Zverev
R1: Rinderknech
R2: PCB
R3: Berrettini
R4: Cerundolo/Khachanov
QF: Fritz/Medvedev
SF: Alcaraz
F: Sinner/Djokovic

Draper
R1: Baez
R2: Cilic
R3: Bublik
R4: Mensik
QF: Djokovic
SF: Sinner
F: Alcaraz

Djokovic
R1: Muller
R2: Evans
R3: Michelsen
R4: ADM
QF: Draper
SF: Sinner
F: Alcaraz

Fritz
R1: Perricard
R2: Diallo
R3: ADF
R4: Medvedev
QF: Zverev
SF: Alcaraz
F: Sinner/Djokovic
 
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Gut feeling analysis as opposed to a more comprehensive rundown:

Sinner's draw isn't particularly hard, but would've loved Zverev over Djokovic. Still, 3/10 at best. Shapo and Paul aren't pushovers, but unless they're amazing this year they're not pushing Sinner.

Alcaraz starts off super weak, then quickly jumps to FAA who can be dangerous on the right day. After that it's perennial bridesmaids Rublev and Tsitsipas, and Rune/Tiafoe. With the names, this section is wild. But with their play recently it leaves a bit to be desired. 5/10 I completely neglected that Rune/Tiafoe is the QF here. That's nothing compared to any of the other draws. 2/10. Even with a decent R16 and an alright floater, nowhere near enough to reduce the Djokovic/Fritz sized hole here. Even Zverev/Fritz have each other, Draper has Djokovic.

Zverev's draw has the dangerous Berrettini pretty early. Khachanov and Cerundolo could be a tricky R16, and then there's Fritz/Alcaraz/Sinner for the QF-F. Not easy by any means. 8/10.

Draper has a nightmare draw. Not only is he the only top 4 seed with Djokovic/Sinner/Alcaraz all in a row, he also has Bublik (dangerous and just won a 500) and Mensik (tough young guy) in his draw. And on top of that, he has former Wimbledon finalist Cilic as well. Not that Cilic will do much in all likelihood. And then there's Baez, another dangerous player. 10/10 if I've ever saw one.

Djokovic is fine. SF and F were already guaranteed to be the 2 top guys, and I think he prefers Draper over Zverev, as he was guaranteed to go through 3 of the top 4. These other guys can be good practice. Not total pushovers, but should be wins if Djokovic isn't playing his D game. Sinner and Alcaraz got lucky Djokovic fell into Draper's quarter though. Same with Fritz. 4/10 for Djokovic's overall draw.

Fritz has Perricard, a dangerous floater, in R1 before he's had time to acclimate to the court. Then people who could trouble him, right up until he needs to get through Zverev/Alcaraz/Sinner. Not looking good, but still. What could we expect? 6/10.
 
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TripleATeam said:
Gut feeling analysis as opposed to a more comprehensive rundown:

Sinner's draw isn't particularly hard, but would've loved Zverev over Djokovic. Still, 3/10 at best. Shapo and Paul aren't pushovers, but unless they're amazing this year they're not pushing Sinner.

Alcaraz starts off super weak, then quickly jumps to FAA who can be dangerous on the right day. After that it's perennial bridesmaids Rublev and Tsitsipas, and Rune/Tiafoe. With the names, this section is wild. But with their play recently it leaves a bit to be desired. 5/10 I completely neglected that Rune/Tiafoe is the QF here. That's nothing compared to any of the other draws. 2/10. Even with a decent R16 and an alright floater, nowhere near enough to reduce the Djokovic/Fritz sized hole here. Even Zverev/Fritz have each other, Draper has Djokovic.

Zverev's draw has the dangerous Berrettini pretty early. Khachanov and Cerundolo could be a tricky R16, and then there's Fritz/Alcaraz/Sinner for the QF-F. Not easy by any means. 8/10.

Draper has a nightmare draw. Not only is he the only top 4 seed with Djokovic/Sinner/Alcaraz all in a row, he also has Bublik (dangerous and just won a 500) and Mensik (tough young guy) in his draw. And on top of that, he has former Wimbledon finalist Cilic as well. Not that Cilic will do much in all likelihood. And then there's Baez, another dangerous player. 10/10 if I've ever saw one.

Djokovic is fine. SF and F were already guaranteed to be the 2 top guys, and I think he prefers Draper over Zverev, as he was guaranteed to go through 3 of the top 4. These other guys can be good practice. Not total pushovers, but should be wins if Djokovic isn't playing his D game. Sinner and Alcaraz got lucky Djokovic fell into Draper's quarter though. Same with Fritz. 4/10 for Djokovic's overall draw.

Fritz has Perricard, a dangerous floater, in R1 before he's had time to acclimate to the court. Then people who could trouble him, right up until he needs to get through Zverev/Alcaraz/Sinner. Not looking good, but still. What could we expect? 6/10.
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Did some changes to my initial analysis. It is 3am and I got lost in the sea of names/numbers. But I think I stand by it so far. Let's see if morning TripleA agrees.
 
The draw itself:

4nz4brp.jpeg
 
Kinda hard to see past another Sinner-Djokovic semifinal here. Bottom half is harder to call. Alcaraz against one of Medvedev or Fritz would be the obvious choice, but which one? And someone besides one of them is not remotely out of the question.
 
For Raz and Sonic the draw appears to roughly balanced and totally doable. Any other final than another meeting of these two would be a major surprise.
 
Hitman said:
Sinner doesn't have it as straight forwards, Shapovalov, Paul and Musetti in sequence isn't easy. Yes, he should win, but he cannot sleepwalk that. They all know how to play on grass.
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In the earlier rounds sinner probably has tougher opponents than Novak. Novak’s quarter looks tougher though.
 
Bublik just won Halle and Draper may get him in the 3R definitely no home court cooking with the draw. Draper needs to bring his A game quick. FAA or Tiafoe are not pushovers for Alcaraz. I have a feeling the draw might open up early and some of the bigger names won't be there at the end.
 
I think Djokovic's draw looks quite fortunate. As the 6th seed he could have faced Sinner or Alcaraz as early as the quarters.

Also just to go off on a tangent for a moment, why the hell am I still having to manually type in Sinner on my damn phone?

Sober, sooner, dinner etc all come up every time instead (I use swipe keyboard) - I have typed in SINNER more times than any of those these past 6 months!

#FirstWorldProblems
 
Hitman said:
Sinner doesn't have it as straight forwards, Shapovalov, Paul and Musetti in sequence isn't easy. Yes, he should win, but he cannot sleepwalk that. They all know how to play on grass.
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This board needs to stop trying to make Shapo happen. It's never gonna happen. As if he's ever consistent enough to guarantee even making the 3R.
 
If Fritz brings it he may trouble Carlos. He should be able to get through Med and Zverev as they suck on grass. I'm assuming these draws will breakdown and upsets happen as everyone is so wildly inconsistent at Wimbledon
 
aldeayeah said:
IMO Lehecka has as good a chance as Rune or Tiafoe of making the seventh QF slot.
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Lehecka is really good on grass and plays a really smart game on it. His weakness is that he can be overpowered and not really a good defender on grass. Grass is also his favorite surface.
 
I still got Bubbylicky taking it.. And Shelton my maybe. (Just seems like his game could cause problems here and he had a good RG ) I got a feeling Sinner crashes out. Djoker is the one I'm unsure of. He probably gets to finals if he avoids Sinner, if Sinner crashes out earlier but at 38 who knows how long his body will hold at this point . Alcaraz clearly has the easiest draw but he’s also prone to problems
 
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TheGoldenEra1990’s said:
I still got Bubbylicky taking it.. And Shelton my maybe. (Just seems like his game could cause problems here and he had a good RG ) I got a feeling Sinner crashes out. Djoker is the one I'm unsure of. He probably gets to finals if he avoids Sinner, if Sinner crashes out earlier but at 38 who knows how long his body will hold at this point . Alcaraz clearly has the easiest draw but he’s also prone to problems
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Djokovic-Bublik quarterfinal would be cinema stuff.
 
messiahrobins said:
Agree about Shapo he is no threat to Sinner. @Hitman is right about Paul though that's a tough one. And shelton in the quarters I think is a nightmare I really do and where I think Sinner may come unstuck
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Shapo is one of the few with the firepower and athleticism to take the racquet out of Sinner’s hands. I wouldn’t bet on it, but if Shapo catches fire he can beat pretty much anyone. He dropped the first set to Fritz in Dallas and then smoked him. I think he could even hit through Djoko at this point esp on a faster court.

My upset pick is Zverev over Alcaraz in the SF, and he goes on to lose meekly to Djoko in the F after winning the first set
 
I get the feeling mensik is the guy to watch.
Big server with variety.
Flat ground strokes from the baseline and can come in. Seeded 15th. A little under the radar where the pressure is on Draper to make the semis after winning a M1000 earlier this year.

It wouldn’t shock me Mensik beat Nole in the QFs to reach the semis.

I shared the pros. And his play did carry over well into clay making good runs in the m1000 tourneys. Lost in 5 at RG early so not his best work.

The question marks for him are his youth and inexperience. Can he grind out and hold onto leads for 5 sets? TBD. Talent is there to make a deep run. His upside is better than Draper who was a late bloomer.
 
The best SF match up Sinner could hope for. Alcaraz is the bogey opponent to Sinner so I think he has better chance of winning against Djokovic. Also, Alcaraz often has a lot of trouble when playing against Zverev, so this will be his preferred SF draw for Sinner for now.
 
Rosstour said:
Shapo is one of the few with the firepower and athleticism to take the racquet out of Sinner’s hands. I wouldn’t bet on it, but if Shapo catches fire he can beat pretty much anyone. He dropped the first set to Fritz in Dallas and then smoked him. I think he could even hit through Djoko at this point esp on a faster court.

My upset pick is Zverev over Alcaraz in the SF, and he goes on to lose meekly to Djoko in the F after winning the first set
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This always means nothing since Shapo is rarely ever able to make it deep enough in slams to face the top seeds. Heck, he can't even make the end of the first week nowadays. Your endless hyping of Shapo no matter what is cringe.
 
Berrettini_Fan said:
This always means nothing since Shapo is rarely ever able to make it deep enough in slams to face the top seeds. Heck, he can't even make the end of the first week nowadays. Your endless hyping of Shapo no matter what is cringe.
Click to expand...

He has a exciting game. Not sure what to say. Not everyone has to be a Sinner/Djoko/Rune/Mensik fan.
 
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