Wimbledon odds before the quarter-finals

Men:

1. Djokovic 4/6
2=. Federer 3/1
2=. Nadal 3/1
4=. Querrey 40/1
4=. Bautista Agut 40/1
6=. Nishikori 50/1
6=. Goffin 50/1
8. Pella 80/1

Women:

1. Williams 6/4
2. Halep 5/2
3. Konta 9/2
4. Svitolina 9/1
5. Riske 12/1
6=. Muchova 25/1
6=. Strycova 25/1
8. Zhang 33/1
 

DjokoLand

Rookie
So what this means is Nadal be slight favorite against Fed if they both get there as they are the same price but Querrey is shorter than Kei.

So they think Nadal will have more chance of being upset but will be slight favorite.

Also that Djokovic is a banker to win it but we already knew that.
 

TripleATeam

Legend
Novak is only as high as he is because Nadal and Federer have to face each other.

If you assume Fedal v Novak is 40/60, and Federer/Nadal is 50/50, and Fedalovic vs Pella/RBA is 90/10, then Novak will have a 54% chance at the title, Fedal 22.5% each, and Pella/RBA at 1%.

This is about how the odds look. We have to remember that before the SF, Djokovic will be the heavy favorite to take the title because the other half of the draw will be almost a coin flip. Once the Fedal match is over and the winner goes up against Novak, Novak will be no more than a 70% chance of victory.
 
Novak is only as high as he is because Nadal and Federer have to face each other.

If you assume Fedal v Novak is 40/60, and Federer/Nadal is 50/50, and Fedalovic vs Pella/RBA is 90/10, then Novak will have a 54% chance at the title, Fedal 22.5% each, and Pella/RBA at 1%.

This is about how the odds look. We have to remember that before the SF, Djokovic will be the heavy favorite to take the title because the other half of the draw will be almost a coin flip. Once the Fedal match is over and the winner goes up against Novak, Novak will be no more than a 70% chance of victory.
This is true; however, a 70% chance would still make him heavy favorite for the final. I think it might be closer to 65% but we will probably find out.
 

WhiskeyEE

Legend
So what this means is Nadal be slight favorite against Fed if they both get there as they are the same price but Querrey is shorter than Kei.

So they think Nadal will have more chance of being upset but will be slight favorite.

Also that Djokovic is a banker to win it but we already knew that.
Nah. Nadal is given a better shot against Novak if he makes it there. Federer is seen as more likely to make the final.

Querrey is seen as slightly more likely to beat Nadal, but not by enough to account for the higher odds of Federer making the final, according to the bookies.

Djokovic/Federer - 5/4
Djokovic/Nadal - 7/4

Nadal could end up the favourite against Fed though if he performs better in his QF. But right now he is not considered to be.
 
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TripleATeam

Legend
This is true; however, a 70% chance would still make him heavy favorite for the final. I think it might be closer to 65% but we will probably find out.
When I said no more than 70%, I meant "under no circumstances will it be above 70%." It'll be above 50, below 70. Probably 60-65% - which would make him the favorite but not overwhelmingly so. (Hence my 60/40 assumption in the post above.)
 
Nah. Nadal is given a better shot against Novak if he makes it there. Federer is seen as more likely to make the final.
Querrey is seen as slightly more likely to beat Nadal, but not by enough to account for the higher odds of Federer making the final, according to the bookies.

Djokovic/Federer - 5/4
Djokovic/Nadal - 7/4

Nadal could end up the favourite against Fed though if he performs better in his QF. But right now he is not considered to be.
Why is that, do you think? Because Federer is more likely to be too tired after beating Nadal, while Nadal may be young enough for two long matches in a row?
 

WhiskeyEE

Legend
Why is that, do you think? Because Federer is more likely to be too tired after beating Nadal, while Nadal may be young enough for two long matches in a row?
Probably has to do with a match-up issue (Novak's return being a bigger factor against Federer) or Federer being more likely to win a SF than a F.

You may be right as well.
 
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Ray Mercer

Professional
Djokovic is the heavy favourite regardless. Federer and Nadal will be heavy underdogs against him. His return and baseline game is just too solid.
 

WhiskeyEE

Legend
An interesting thing I just noticed is that, since 2011, Novak is 16-1 against Nadal when he's the betting favourite.

Only loss was 2013 Canada Masters.
 

Sport

Legend
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WhiskeyEE

Legend

Sport

Legend
Djokovic is the heavy favourite regardless. Federer and Nadal will be heavy underdogs against him. His return and baseline game is just too solid.
Nadal is not the "heavy" underdog against Djokovic taking under consideration how close their match last year was, the fact that he is playing better this year and how his baseline game is looking extremelly solid.

Federer is much less likely to defeat Djokovic.
 

Sport

Legend
I mean the precise odds were:

Nadal: 1.67
Djokovic: 2.40

For their match in the final. The odds you quoted were from before the tournament started.
So, following your logic, we cannot trust the current odds because they are not the odds before the final.
 

WhiskeyEE

Legend
So, following your logic, we cannot trust the current odds because they are not the odds before the final.
Obviously odds can change. But it is incredibly unlikely that Novak would not be the favourite against Nadal in a potential final. Would require an injury or something extraordinary.
 

Sport

Legend
Obviously odds can change. But it is incredibly unlikely that Novak would not be the favourite against Nadal in a potential final. Would require an injury or something extraordinary.
There was nothing "extraordinary" before the USO 2013 final. It is true that Djokovic played a 5 sets SF with Wawrinka. But I don't think they will change the betting odds if Djokovic plays a 5 sets SF with Bautista at Wimbledon, will they?
 

Midaso240

Hall of Fame
Crazy stuff in the women's,3 of the 4 biggest favourites all out in one day. What an amazing piece of luck for Williams. She's about as quick as an elephant,but will probably win the title now. Halep 2nd favourite but she could lose to anyone,let's face it. Yeah,Djokovic the comfortable favourite fair enough the draw has really opened up for him now. I'll be interested to see how Bautista Agut matches up against him on grass though if that match eventuates,he has proven to be a difficult opponent for Djokovic this year on HC...
 

WhiskeyEE

Legend
There was nothing "extraordinary" before the USO 2013 final, except the fact that Djokovic played a 5 sets SF with Wawrinka. I don't think they will change the betting odds if Djokovic plays a 5 sets SF with Bautista, will they?
God damn you are dense.

I did not say there was anything extraordinary that caused Novak to go from co-favourite to underdog in 2013. I referred specifically to this tournament since he is set to be a heavy favourite in the final, should he make it there.
 
If Nadal beats Querrey and Federer in three sets, and Djokovic goes to five sets against Goffin and Bautista Agut, then, yes, I think that Nadal will go into the final as betting favorite against Djokovic.

There was nothing "extraordinary" before the USO 2013 final. It is true that Djokovic played a 5 sets SF with Wawrinka. But I don't think they will change the betting odds if Djokovic plays a 5 sets SF with Bautista at Wimbledon, will they?
 
Crazy stuff in the women's,3 of the 4 biggest favourites all out in one day. What an amazing piece of luck for Williams. She's about as quick as an elephant,but will probably win the title now. Halep 2nd favourite but she could lose to anyone,let's face it. Yeah,Djokovic the comfortable favourite fair enough the draw has really opened up for him now. I'll be interested to see how Bautista Agut matches up against him on grass though if that match eventuates,he has proven to be a difficult opponent for Djokovic this year on HC...
The big variable in the Djokovic/Bautista Agut matchup is it being a Slam semi-final, not it being on grass. Bautista Agut would have been extremely unlikely to beat Djokovic in two hard-court Slam semi-finals in a row. (It was rather unlikely that he'd beat him twice in a row at all, but the point is about whether Djokovic is really giving it everything he has and about the best-of-five format). Yes, Bautista Agut has pushed him in Slams - winning sets at the 2015 US Open and 2016 Roland Garros. Maybe he can win. But the odds are much further against him this time.
 
Probably has to do with a match-up issue (Novak's return being a bigger factor against Federer) or Federer being more likely to win a SF than a F.

You may be right as well.
What's weird to me is not that they think that Nadal has more chance against Djokovic than Federer has against Djokovic, but that despite thinking that, they also think that Federer is favorite to beat Nadal. I mean, even despite recent Slam results against Djokovic, surely Federer has more of a match-up disadvantage against Nadal than against Djokovic, at least on a court that's probably medium-slow.
 

Sport

Legend
What's weird to me is not that they think that Nadal has more chance against Djokovic than Federer has against Djokovic, but that despite thinking that, they also think that Federer is favorite to beat Nadal. I mean, even despite recent Slam results against Djokovic, surely Federer has more of a match-up disadvantage against Nadal than against Djokovic, at least on a court that's probably medium-slow.
The (largely unreliable) webpage Ultimate Tennis Stats has Nadal as a favorite over Federer in the potential SF:

https://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/inProgressEventForecast?inProgressEventId=41
 
The (largely unreliable) webpage Ultimate Tennis Stats has Nadal as a favorite over Federer in the potential SF:

https://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/inProgressEventForecast?inProgressEventId=41
But they also have Federer as more likely to win the title than Nadal (and it's not because of Querrey/Nishikori, because they have Federer and Nadal basically equally likely to make the semis). So, their verdict is the precise opposite of the bookmakers:

Bookmakers - Federer likely to beat Nadal; Nadal has more chance against Djokovic than Federer has against Djokovic.
UTS - Nadal likely to beat Federer; Federer has more chance against Djokovic than Nadal has against Djokovic.

Weird. I mean, I guess that Federer/Nadal is close to 50/50 and their chances against Djokovic are both in the realm of 35/40. If so, they are both judgement calls and so it's not that surprising that two judges get opposite results.
 

Sport

Legend
But they also have Federer as more likely to win the title than Nadal (and it's not because of Querrey/Nishikori, because they have Federer and Nadal basically equally likely to make the semis). So, their verdict is the precise opposite of the bookmakers:

Bookmakers - Federer likely to beat Nadal; Nadal has more chance against Djokovic than Federer has against Djokovic.
UTS - Nadal likely to beat Federer; Federer has more chance against Djokovic than Nadal has against Djokovic.

Weird. I mean, I guess that Federer/Nadal is close to 50/50 and their chances against Djokovic are both in the realm of 35/40. If so, they are both judgement calls and so it's not that surprising that two judges get opposite results.
LOL, no way are Nadal chances at 35. Last year he was one point away from defeating Djokovic.
 

Midaso240

Hall of Fame
The big variable in the Djokovic/Bautista Agut matchup is it being a Slam semi-final, not it being on grass. Bautista Agut would have been extremely unlikely to beat Djokovic in two hard-court Slam semi-finals in a row. (It was rather unlikely that he'd beat him twice in a row at all, but the point is about whether Djokovic is really giving it everything he has and about the best-of-five format). Yes, Bautista Agut has pushed him in Slams - winning sets at the 2015 US Open and 2016 Roland Garros. Maybe he can win. But the odds are much further against him this time.
Yes,that's true. Even though Bautista Agut is an experienced player,not so much in GS 2nd weeks. To do it in b05 on centre court Wimbledon semi would be pretty unreal. The players who have been able to pull off big upsets over the top names in recent years have been big servers serving out of their mind but I guess Querrey is the only one left who has shown he can do damage to the big 3 on grass but I can't see it this year...
 
Based on the fact that last year Nadal was one point away from defeating Djokovic, I think 40-45% should be the real chances. No more than 60% for Djokovic. 60% is still a solid favorite, but 65% is unrealistic.
You are probably right. We'll know more going into the final, anyway. If Nadal were playing last year's Djokovic, I'd go so far as to say he might well be 53-47 favorite. But Djokovic is fitter and more confident than he was last year. He might not be hitting the ball better though. Hard to tell so far.
 

Sport

Legend
You are probably right. We'll know more going into the final, anyway. If Nadal were playing last year's Djokovic, I'd go so far as to say he might well be 53-47 favorite. But Djokovic is fitter and more confident than he was last year. He might not be hitting the ball better though. Hard to tell so far.
So is Nadal, who after his good 2018 Wimbledon run has recovered his confidence on grass. Take into account that Wimbledon 2018 was the first time Nadal reached the second week of Wimbledon since 2011. Nadal is playing better this year at Wimbledon, just like Djokovic is also playing better in terms of confidence.
 

WhiskeyEE

Legend
But they also have Federer as more likely to win the title than Nadal (and it's not because of Querrey/Nishikori, because they have Federer and Nadal basically equally likely to make the semis). So, their verdict is the precise opposite of the bookmakers:

Bookmakers - Federer likely to beat Nadal; Nadal has more chance against Djokovic than Federer has against Djokovic.
UTS - Nadal likely to beat Federer; Federer has more chance against Djokovic than Nadal has against Djokovic.

Weird. I mean, I guess that Federer/Nadal is close to 50/50 and their chances against Djokovic are both in the realm of 35/40. If so, they are both judgement calls and so it's not that surprising that two judges get opposite results.
Well the betting odds are set by bettors. So it's UTS (one opinion) vs the consensus opinion of bettors in general.

I do think Federer matches up better with Nadal at this point. I remember the 2014 and 2015 Wimbledon finals and, even with Federer serving exceptionally well and Novak choking at times, Novak's suffocating consistent depth was enough to get the win.

Nadal's defense and return are more exploitable.

Going back to the odds, I'm not really sure how many factors the bettors consider. Federer and Novak like the same conditions so there is nothing extraneous that could help Federer beat Novak (the better player) like, for example, wind could help Nadal.
 
So is Nadal, who after his good 2018 Wimbledon run has recovered his confidence on grass. Take into account that Wimbledon 2018 was the first time Nadal reached the second week of Wimbledon since 2011. Nadal is playing better this year at Wimbledon, just like Djokovic is also playing better in terms of confidence.
True. Nadal is hitting the ball better and is more confident, but no fitter, I think. Djokovic is more confident and fitter but may not be hitting the ball better. Anyway, I mentioned that only to say that this Nadal would be favorite against last year's Djokovic, but I don't think he is against this year's Djokovic. You're probably right that it's in the range of 55/45 or 58/42 or something.
 
Well the betting odds are set by bettors. So it's UTS (one opinion) vs the consensus opinion of bettors in general.

I do think Federer matches up better with Nadal at this point. I remember the 2014 and 2015 Wimbledon finals and, even with Federer serving exceptionally well and Novak choking at times, Novak's suffocating consistent depth was enough to get the win.

Nadal's defense and return are more exploitable.

Going back to the odds, I'm not really sure how many factors the bettors consider. Federer and Novak like the same conditions so there is nothing extraneous that could help Federer beat Novak (the better player) like, for example, wind could help Nadal.
True, although the bookmakers adjust the odds based on their perception of the market - as you say it's the consensus of bettors. It'd be more reliable if it were the consensus of bookmakers not concerned with hedging to avoid large payouts. But, yes, better than one website of doubtful provenance.

Agreed on Nadal's return being especially exploitable. Federer should watch tapes of how many free points Kyrgios got going down the middle on the deuce court in particular. Really, there is no excuse for dropping serve against Nadal more than once in a set or so.

I think wind could help Federer against Djokovic, too, although maybe less so than for Nadal. And rain would help Federer against Djokovic but Djokovic against Nadal. Overall, though, I think you're right that Federer will do better against Nadal than against Djokovic (although not on clay of course).

I thought Djokovic played really well in the 2015 final, especially considering it was only a few weeks after a very disappointing Roland Garros final for him. I doubt Djokovic would hit those heights again.
 
But they also have Federer as more likely to win the title than Nadal (and it's not because of Querrey/Nishikori, because they have Federer and Nadal basically equally likely to make the semis). So, their verdict is the precise opposite of the bookmakers:

Bookmakers - Federer likely to beat Nadal; Nadal has more chance against Djokovic than Federer has against Djokovic.
UTS - Nadal likely to beat Federer; Federer has more chance against Djokovic than Nadal has against Djokovic.

Weird. I mean, I guess that Federer/Nadal is close to 50/50 and their chances against Djokovic are both in the realm of 35/40. If so, they are both judgement calls and so it's not that surprising that two judges get opposite results.
Just FYI, UTS does give Fed a better shot vs Novak than Nadal (37% for Nadal, 38.8% for Fed). But even if they had the same odds vs Djokovic, Fed would still have higher title odds than Nadal.

This is because the title odds are also a function of Fed having MUCH higher odds against any other potential finalist:
Goffin vs Fed 9.6% / vs Nadal 18.1 %
Agut vs Fed 13.9% / vs Nadal 20.8 %
Pella vs Fed 6.8% / vs Nadal 10.2

Additionally, while Nishikori vs Fed and Querry vs Nadal are virtually equal odds, Nishikori has much better odds in a SF vs Nadal than Querry does in a SF vs Fed:
Querry vs Fed 11.4%
Nishikori vs Nadal 25.7%
 

Sport

Legend
Just FYI, UTS does give Fed a better shot vs Novak than Nadal (37% for Nadal, 38.8% for Fed). But even if they had the same odds vs Djokovic, Fed would still have higher title odds than Nadal.

This is because the title odds are also a function of Fed having MUCH higher odds against any other potential finalist:
Goffin vs Fed 9.6% / vs Nadal 18.1 %
Agut vs Fed 13.9% / vs Nadal 20.8 %
Pella vs Fed 6.8% / vs Nadal 10.2

Additionally, while Nishikori vs Fed and Querry vs Nadal are virtually equal odds, Nishikori has much better odds in a SF vs Nadal than Querry does in a SF vs Fed:
Querry vs Fed 11.4%
Nishikori vs Nadal 25.7%
Nishikori a 25% against Nadal? Nishikori has never won a single set against Nadal in Grand Slam matches. I would put him in single digits, something like 8-9% chances.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
There was nothing "extraordinary" before the USO 2013 final. It is true that Djokovic played a 5 sets SF with Wawrinka. But I don't think they will change the betting odds if Djokovic plays a 5 sets SF with Bautista at Wimbledon, will they?
The Wawa semi was extremely physically punishing. I doubt a 5 setter on grass vs a type like Agut would be anywhere close.
 
Here are the odds before the semi-finals:

Men:

1. Djokovic 4/6
2. Nadal 3/1
3. Federer 7/2
4. Bautista Agut 33/1

Women:

1. Williams 1/1
2. Halep 7/4
3. Svitolina 6/1
4. Strycova 9/1
 
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