Well, he hasn't won this tournament for many years and he is 33 after all.There's careful and then there's your version of careful. When I read your comments and lock out everything else, it seems a miracle he is able to win sets, let alone matches and slams.
Anyway, Federer is the favorite in the semifinal, right? This is my point after all, and I think you agree with it. It's still better than to be overconfident IMO.