WOMEN'S - 2010 Australian Open

Who will win the 2010 Women's Australian Open Championship?

  • Total voters
    108
  • Poll closed .
jamesblakefan#1

jamesblakefan#1

G.O.A.T.
Starting a new thread b/c some poll options were missing from the other one.

Here's the full draw.

Projected QF's

#1 Serena v #7 Azarenka
#4 Wozniacki v #6 Venus

#3 Kuznetsova v #5 Dementieva
#2 Safina v #8 Jankovic

SERENA'S QUARTER
Serena Williams USA (1) v Urszula Radwanska POL
Petra Kvitova CZE v Jill Craybas USA
Qualifier v Andrea Petkovic GER
Carla Suarez Navarro ESP (32) v Ayumi Morita JPN

Sabine Lisicki GER (21) v Petra Martic CRO
Varvara Lepchenko USA v Alberta Brianti ITA
Kristina Barrois GER v Akgul Amanmuradova UZB
Samantha Stosur AUS (13) v Xinyun Han CHN

Vera Zvonareva RUS (9) v Kristina Kucova SVK
Kai-Chen Chang TPE v Iveta Benesova CZE
Zuzana Kucova SVK v Gisela Dulko ARG
Ana Ivanovic SRB (20) v Shenay Perry USA

Elena Vesnina RUS (28 ) v Tathiana Garbin ITA
Kimiko Date Krumm JPN v Yaroslava Shvedova KAZ
Stefanie Voegele SUI v Melinda Czink HUN
Victoria Azarenka BLR (7) v Stephanie Cohen-Aloro FRA

WOZNIACKI'S QUARTER
Caroline Wozniacki DEN (4) v Aleksandra Wozniak CAN
Tamira Paszek AUT v Julia Goerges GER
Galina Voskoboeva KAZ v Tsvetana Pironkova BUL
Shahar Peer ISR (29) v Lucie Hradecka CZE

Daniela Hantuchova SVK (22) v Viktoriya Kutuzova UKR
Jarmila Groth AUS v Sofia Arvidsson SWE
Stephanie Dubois CAN v Agnes Szavay HUN
Na Li CHN (16) v Marina Erakovic NZL

Agnieszka Radwanska POL (10) v Tatjana Malek GER
Melanie Oudin USA v Alla Kudryavtseva RUS
Julie Coin FRA v Alicia Molik AUS
Francesca Schiavone ITA (17) v Alize Cornet FRA

Anabel Medina Garrigues ESP (25) v Karolina Sprem CRO
Anastasiya Yakimova BLR v Casey Dellacqua AUS
Arantxa Parra Santonja ESP v Sybille Bammer AUT
Venus Williams USA (6) v Lucie Safarova CZE

KUZNETSOVA'S QUARTER
Elena Dementieva RUS (5) v Vera Dushevina RUS
Kirsten Flipkens BEL v Justine Henin BEL
Sorana Cirstea ROU v Olivia Rogowska AUS
Alisa Kleybanova RUS (27) v Jelena Dokic AUS

Virginie Razzano FRA (18 ) v Ekaterina Makarova RUS
Klara Zakopalova CZE v Sara Errani ITA
Yanina Wickmayer BEL v Alexandra Dulgheru ROU
Flavia Pennetta ITA (12) v Anna Chakvetadze RUS

Kim Clijsters BEL (15) v Valerie Tetreault CAN
Sesil Karatantcheva KAZ v Tamarine Tanasugarn THA
Yung-Jan Chan TPE v Kaia Kanepi EST
Nadia Petrova RUS (19) v Edina Gallovits ROU

Aravane Rezai FRA (26) v Sania Mirza IND
Olga Govortsova BLR v Angelique Kerber GER
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova RUS v Anastasija Sevastova LAT
Svetlana Kuznetsova RUS (3) v Anastasia Rodionova AUS

SAFINA'S QUARTER
Jelena Jankovic SRB (8 ) v Monica Niculescu ROU
Patricia Mayr AUT v Katie O'brien GBR
Yuliana Fedak UKR v Polona Hercog SLO
Kathrin Woerle GER v Alona Bondarenko UKR (31)

Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez ESP (24) v Evgeniya Rodina RUS
Jie Zheng CHN v Shuai Peng CHN
Coco Vandeweghe USA v Sandra Zahlavova CZE
Rossana De Los Rios PAR v Marion Bartoli FRA (11)

Maria Sharapova RUS (14) v Maria Kirilenko RUS
Yvonne Meusburger AUT v Timea Bacsinszky SUI
Anna-Lena Groenefeld GER v Roberta Vinci ITA
Vania King USA v Dominika Cibulkova SVK (23)

Kateryna Bondarenko UKR (30) v Ioana Raluca Olaru ROU
Pauline Parmentier FRA v Elena Baltacha GBR
Barbora Zahlavova Strycova CZE v Qualifier
Magdalena Rybarikova SVK v Dinara Safina RUS (2)

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So who will pick up the title down under?
 
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The Williams sisters both have good draws to make it to the semis. Also I see Clijsters getting through on the bottom half. Should be a great AO.
 
Dementieva gets great momentum w/ her win over Serena to take the title in Sydney. Too bad she'll have to play Henin right off the bat. That match really could go either way. From what I've seen from both this year, Dementieva should be the favorite, but the big question is mentally, how will she handle playing a player of Henin's capability so early in a slam. It's a tossup really.
 
imalil2gangsta4u said:
The Williams sisters both have good draws to make it to the semis. Also I see Clijsters getting through on the bottom half. Should be a great AO.
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Venus hasnt been past the quarters of the Australian Open since 2003, and only once has she made it that far. As much as I like her she is finished on slow surfaces. I will be shocked if she makes the semis. I agree on Serena, and I dont see any obstacle to her being in the final. I agree Kim is the favorite to get out of the bottom half and possibly to win the title, but I still wouldnt count Henin out in that half either.

As for the Henin-Dementieva 2nd round Henin wins no question IMO. Dementieva beating Serena in Sydney isnt that amazing, Serena only plays for the slams these days. Basically she almost made it to the final there by accident putting on a limp performance vs Rezai and Rezai choking badly at the end. Dementieva won a warmup event in Canada last year and Oudin still smacked her around at the U.S Open. Henin simply is and always will be a greater player than Dementieva and in a slam when it really matters will no doubt be the one coming out ahead.
 
I said Kim. I agree with Davey about Venus, on paper her draw should be no problem but she is so terribly inconsistent on slower surface she could lose to a whole host of people in her section, well she could possibly lose to any of the women in her section as most of them are potentially dangerous to her. Serena has a pretty good draw, Stosur seems to be the only one who could possibly block her from the quarters. Vika or Woz could stop her, who knows though. Whomever loses between Henin and Dementieva gets screwed, both recently are playing better than everyone in Safina's section and one of them will get to the Semi's.

As of know I say the final will be whomever comes out of Kuzzy's quarter (likely either Clijsters, Henin or Kuzzy, I think Henin will beat Elena but I don't think it will be an easy win) against either Serena, Woz or Vika with Stosur or Sharapova being possible Spoilers. Safina will not be making a 2nd straight Aussie Final.
 
It's too bad Henin and Dementieva will face off so early. I think Henin will win since she's a better big-match player than Dementieva.
 
Wacky 1st round matches....

Elena Dementieva RUS (5) v Vera Dushevina RUS
Dushevina can't catch a break, can she? She's around 50 in the world but had to face Venus in 1st round at USO. Now this. I don't know the H2H, but this could be a decent match.

Melanie Oudin USA v Alla Kudryavtseva RUS
This could be a horror show filled with UEs. You never know what to expect from these two. Oudin could make AK hit extra balls which would play into Oudin's advantage. But if AK is on, Oudin might be short on weapons to counter that.

Francesca Schiavone ITA (17) v Alize Cornet FRA
I wonder if Cornet has gotten over all those ridiculous losses in 2009. Schiavone ended 2009 with the Kremlin Cup and Fed Cup. Annoying grunter that's rough on the eyes vs moonballer. That could take a while to end...

Venus Williams USA (6) v Lucie Safarova CZE
Could smell an upset. Safarova has the game to take on Venus. Given that Venus doesn't do squat on slow hard courts, Lucie might be able to get it together here.

Maria Sharapova RUS (14) v Maria Kirilenko RUS
Battle of the BFFs. Does Makiri have a surprise up her sleeve? Is Masha's shoulder really healed up?

Flavia Pennetta ITA (12) v Anna Chakvetadze RUS
Will Anna put up a fight or sulk her way once more towards being a total washout? Flavia had a pretty good 2009, but can she follow that up with another solid year?
 
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Interesting ...... I'd never seen Safarova play until she gave Henin fits a couple weeks ago ..... that s/b worth a look.
 
soyizgood said:
Wacky 1st round matches....

Elena Dementieva RUS (5) v Vera Dushevina RUS
Dushevina can't catch a break, can she? She's around 50 in the world but had to face Venus in 1st round at USO. Now this. I don't know the H2H, but this could be a decent match.

Melanie Oudin USA v Alla Kudryavtseva RUS
This could be a horror show filled with UEs. You never know what to expect from these two. Oudin could make AK hit extra balls which would play into Oudin's advantage. But if AK is on, Oudin might be short on weapons to counter that.

Francesca Schiavone ITA (17) v Alize Cornet FRA
I wonder if Cornet has gotten over all those ridiculous losses in 2009. Schiavone ended 2009 with the Kremlin Cup and Fed Cup. Annoying grunter that's rough on the eyes vs moonballer. That could take a while to end...

Venus Williams USA (6) v Lucie Safarova CZE
Could smell an upset. Safarova has the game to take on Venus. Given that Venus doesn't do squat on slow hard courts, Lucie might be able to get it together here.

Maria Sharapova RUS (14) v Maria Kirilenko RUS
Battle of the BFFs. Does Makiri have a surprise up her sleeve? Is Masha's shoulder really healed up?

Flavia Pennetta ITA (12) v Anna Chakvetadze RUS
Will Anna put up a fight or sulk her way once more towards being a total washout? Flavia had a pretty good 2009, but can she follow that up with another solid year?
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If I recall Safarova had a match point against Venus at the French Open but Venus hit a scorching winner and changed the momentum of the whole match. So Safarova has the game to take it to Venus certainly, especially on this surface as you said, but can she be consistent enough?
I honestly have no idea who'll win the tournament, which I quite like, I just hope it won't be a repeat of last year where Serena won by playing badly and having all her opponents choke. It wasn't exactly satisfying.
 
Lionheart392 said:
If I recall Safarova had a match point against Venus at the French Open but Venus hit a scorching winner and changed the momentum of the whole match. So Safarova has the game to take it to Venus certainly, especially on this surface as you said, but can she be consistent enough?
I honestly have no idea who'll win the tournament, which I quite like, I just hope it won't be a repeat of last year where Serena won by playing badly and having all her opponents choke. It wasn't exactly satisfying.
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Safarova is about as inconsistent as her bf Berdych. But when she's on, she's on. I'd like to see Lucie step up. She's had some good moments mixed with bad, but at least she gives it her all.

The AO can tend to be the most difficult to predict. Early in the year which makes it ideal for upsets to be pulled off. Seeing that no #1 seed has won a major since USO 2007 and Serena's AO wins have come on odd years, I get the feeling the trend will continue.
 
Love Game said:
Interesting ...... I'd never seen Safarova play until she gave Henin fits a couple weeks ago ..... that s/b worth a look.
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Safarova is a player who has a lot of tools. I watched her play Petrova in the Amelia Island final (at least I think it was Amelia Island) in 2006 and she has game. Her serve needs work though, but her groundstrokes are deadly when she is on. She can hit the lines on both sides and used to have a good return. She is a looping sort of a lefty with her serve though. Her game has been all over the place since 2006 though so I am not sure. If she comes out playing well she could take out Venus, but if she comes out spraying stuff everywhere Venus should be able to straight set her. She can give any player fits, she has that kind of game, but like fellow erratic -ova Vaidisova she rarely plays to her potential.
 
soyizgood said:
Azarenka doesn't get placed as a poll choice? Figures since OP doesn't like her....:rolleyes:
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Who would you take off the list? Maybe Safina, but she is defending finalist and #2 in the world. All the poll options are slam champs or finalists, that's why Vika isn't on there.

And I don't dislike Vika. Dislike her grunting at times, but as a player I have no problem with her.

Heck I put Sharapova as an option, and I've said I don't think she'll ever win a slam again. That shows that my choices were not biased. Based on the oddsmakers choices.
 
jamesblakefan#1 said:
Who would you take off the list? Maybe Safina, but she is defending finalist and #2 in the world. All the poll options are slam champs or finalists, that's why Vika isn't on there.

And I don't dislike Vika. Dislike her grunting at times, but as a player I have no problem with her.

Heck I put Sharapova as an option, and I've said I don't think she'll ever win a slam again. That shows that my choices were not biased. Based on the oddsmakers choices.
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Jankovic didn't even make a QF at any slam last year and is ranked lower than Azarenka... :confused: Not to mention Azarenka spanked Jankovic at the YEC.

Henin should have been thrown in the other category. Clijsters, I could understand. I would doubt Sharapova, but she did win the AO in 2008 after recovering from a shoulder injury.

Safina is in no position to go deep at this AO. Hope she proves me wrong, but getting spanked by Dementieva for the 4th straight time gives me reason to be skeptical.

Venus is not winning this event and hasn't done much at the AO over the past 5 years.

Eh, all I can say is this event is wide open for the taking.
 
soyizgood said:
Jankovic didn't even make a QF at any slam last year and is ranked lower than Azarenka... :confused: Not to mention Azarenka spanked Jankovic at the YEC.

Henin should have been thrown in the other category. Clijsters, I could understand. I would doubt Sharapova, but she did win the AO in 2008 after recovering from a shoulder injury.

Safina is in no position to go deep at this AO. Hope she proves me wrong, but getting spanked by Dementieva for the 4th straight time gives me reason to be skeptical.

Venus is not winning this event and hasn't done much at the AO over the past 5 years.

Eh, all I can say is this event is wide open for the taking.
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I didn't have Jankovic in the poll...

Betfair odds:

http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=100108020&ex=2&rfr=368&ex=1
 
I would be so happy if Venus could finally win here. My gut is telling me Serena or Clijsters though. I picked Serena just cuz I like her more. =)
 
Tanya said:
I would be so happy if Venus could finally win here. My gut is telling me Serena or Clijsters though. I picked Serena just cuz I like her more. =)
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I would not mind Venus winning, but i think she is done on slower surfaces. Her Quarter is racked with low ranked players who could get hot and knock her out, plus I really think Woz would beat her if they played. Woz does well against error prone players and Venus especially as of late fits that category. Serena could power Woz off the court, but Venus I don't know. We'll see, Venus certainly on paper at least should have an easy draw, but that doesn't mean anything for her,
 
Just updated the draw in the OP to include the qualifiers. The Dementieva/Kuzy/Henin/Clijsters Quarter didn't get any easier - Wickmayer thrown in there as a Qualifier.

Potential Wickmayer/Penetta 2R, two top 20 players.

That Quarter alone has 7 top 20 players, not including Henin. Talk about Group of Death.
 
Not sure why Serena is being underestimated so much. I would give her a bigger chance to win this tournament that Clijsters..she is #1 in the world and has won this tournament 4 times (including being defending champion). Clijsters has only won the US Open. Granted, Clijsters did win their last match, but it was a bad match from Serena and I don't think she would repeat that kind of form.
 
President said:
Not sure why Serena is being underestimated so much. I would give her a bigger chance to win this tournament that Clijsters..she is #1 in the world and has won this tournament 4 times (including being defending champion). Clijsters has only won the US Open. Granted, Clijsters did win their last match, but it was a bad match from Serena and I don't think she would repeat that kind of form.
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The poll results have more to do with how much people hate Serena than anything else.
 
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jamesblakefan#1 said:
The poll results have more to do with how much people hate Serena than anything else.
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In a sense,true. Im a little shocked at how SO few people tipped Serena to win...I mean its kind of weird. Serena is a top contender at every slam except for the French,and she has won 11 majors and won every slam before. I'm a Serena and Clijsters fan,I think both Kim and Serena will be in the semis at least,but i think people are simply writing off Serena too quickly just because of her injury and loss to Dementieva and her "decline because she's old" talk..isn't Henin only one year younger than her?

And btw,I'm quite superstitious so i feel its possible that Serena will not win this year's AO because in past history she only won the AO in odd years. If not Serena,then I hope Kim will win the whole thing!
 
Poll favors Clijsters by a mile even though her only slams are at the USO...:confused: I predict a lot of disappointed voters....lol
 
I didn't vote for Serena. Not because I don't like her (pretty much indifferent, but like her less after USOpen), but because I think there are too many players who will take it to her (similar to Rezai in Sydney), plus her fitness is not the best. Yes, she is defending champion, but she got a lot of help from Azarenka's flu, Kuznetsova's nerves, the roof, and Safina. I don't think she'll get that much help again, and I don't think she comes out of the off season at her best. I think she is much more dialed in at the end of the season actually.

I also Dementieva is ready to take it to her in a slam, too. She did at Wimby, and I believe she will at the AO (should they meet). Serena may have won that Wimby semi, but anybody who saw that match understands that Lena DID NOT CHOKE.
 
I'm surprised there's only one vote for Henin. She'd be my #2 choice after Kim. I mean they did play a ridiculously close final just a week ago in which Justine had championship points. Not to mention Henin usually always beats Kim in the big matches at GS's.
 
jamesblakefan#1 said:
The poll results have more to do with how much people hate Serena than anything else.
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That and the fact that Serena has only once won a slam in 2 consecutive years and has never been to even 2 consecutive Australian Open finals, every year where she has been the defending Champ she has suffered an arguably embarassing loss for one reason or another. There is hatred of Serena but she also has a huge problem with defending grand slam victories, having only doen it once in her career. There is also a lot of bad mojo against her, its been over 2 years since the number 1 seed has won the slam in question, and Serena has never, to my knowledge, been past the QF of the Aussie in an even number year.

Serena however has a seemingly easy draw. Stosur could be a problem if she gets hot and being at home could help her momentum wise like it Dokic last year. Vika almost beat Serena here last year and beat her in Miami, but she has played poor tennis since Wimbledon. Venus or Woz in the SF, Serena seems to own her Sister at majors not names Wimbledon, and I don't see Woz knocking off both Williams back to back. Serena could get into the final with a lot more rest if she is swift with her early matches and plays well. Then it will depend on who is there. Clijsters or Henin could be a lot more tired, they will be fighting through the worst quarter and that will be an advantage for Serena. Serena should hope that the bottom half bludgeons each other down and she can just sweep her opponents aside in her arguably easier half.
 
President said:
Granted, Clijsters did win their last match, but it was a bad match from Serena
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Any match Serena loses was a bad match for her according to her fanboys. Clijsters played better tennis in Brisbane than she did at the U.S Open so it should be hard for her to match that form when she has already surpassed her in only her 2nd tournament since.
 
anointedone said:
Any match Serena loses was a bad match for her according to her fanboys. Clijsters played better tennis in Brisbane than she did at the U.S Open so it should be hard for her to match that form when she has already surpassed her in only her 2nd tournament since.
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lol because it's true. If Serena has a good match she's not going to lose, sorry. She still managed to make the SF against Clijsters 2 close sets despite the amount of UEs she made. I'm not dissing Clijsters, she certainly played well, but if Serena was on top of her game she probably wouldn't have won.
 
Tanya said:
If Serena has a good match she's not going to lose, sorry.
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Right so she has never played well in any of her losses to Henin, Venus, or some of the others who have beaten her multiple times. Please. By the way Henin's best on clay is better than Serena's best, and Venus's best on grass is better than Serena's best, so we already have atleast two cases she will lose most times even playing her mythical hardly ever seen best, let alone merely playing well. While we are at it how many of her wins over some of the other top players were they even playing well:

Henin- first 4 losses to Clijsters were before 2003 when she was nowhere near prime level and owned by Davenport, Clijsters, and a nearly retired Seles. Loss in Miami in 2008 was when Henin choked a huge lead, and loss in early 2009 was while Henin was playing like garbage. Wimbledon 2003 Henin had a wrist injury and was thinking of withdrawing early on, and was on her worst surface anyway (similar to Serena playing Henin on clay). So I guess if Henin never beats Serena playing well the same could easily be true in reverse then.

Venus- 2002 lost to Serena in the French Open final, the surface she struggles even more than Serena on, and that match absolutely sucked (both were near 60 UEs in only 2 sets, no wonder neither ever made another final there). Lost to Serena in the U.S Open final after showing shaky form all fortnight, scraping past Rubin and Mauresmo in ugly matches. 2003 lost the Wimbledon final in 3 sets with a stomach pull and could barely serve. 2008 U.S Open quarters was high quality for the most part but completely blown by Venus, and Wimbledon final last year was a poor display on Venus's part according to virtually everyone. So what does that leave, the 2002 Wimbledon final Venus played well and Serena beat her. 2003 Australian Open final and 2009 year end WTA Championships maybe at a stretch.

Clijsters- Nearly all of Serena's wins over Kim, and most of their matches, were before the 2002 WTA Championships which was when Kim first became a bonafide top 4 player. 2001 she was barely top 10 calibre, and 2002 she was even worse than that most of the year. 2003 Australian Open semis took a huge choke by Kim in the 3rd set for Serena to win (and yes I know Serena was off form badly that day too). So what does leave, 2003 Miami maybe.

She still managed to make the SF against Clijsters 2 close sets despite the amount of UEs she made.
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UEs are part of Serena's game. She is not capable of playing such high risk tennis without making UEs against a top quality opponent regardless how well she is playing. Try to give me some examples of matches vs a real opponent (sorry Hantuchova doesnt cut it) where she made hardly any UEs, even in her more impressive and one sided victories. If anything if she played a match with almost no UEs it would probably mean she wasnt playing her best since she was being too passive.
 
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I think the rule that applies to Serena applies to any other player too,including Clijsters and Henin. Serena beat Clijsters and Henin before legitimately,and Clijsters and Henin beat Serena legitimately before too,including the match at the US Open. No more excuses,a loss is a loss but that doesn't mean that the player who lost will keep on losing.

Guys,let's move on. I'm so tired of people talking smack constantly about Serena,Kim and Justine.
 
anointedone said:
UEs are part of Serena's game. She is not capable of playing such high risk tennis without making UEs against a top quality opponent regardless how well she is playing. Try to give me some examples of matches vs a real opponent (sorry Hantuchova doesnt cut it) where she made hardly any UEs, even in her more impressive and one sided victories. If anything if she played a match with almost no UEs it would probably mean she wasnt playing her best since she was being too passive.
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Umm to the bolded...07 AO final beatdown vs world #1 Sharapova? That certainly counts right? :lol:

Here's the highlights in case you forgot for some reason

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoUFX8DmKcE&feature=related
 
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jamesblakefan#1 said:
The poll results have more to do with how much people hate Serena than anything else.
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Maybe it has more to do with WHY they "hate" Serena so much. Part of it has to be who people HOPE will win. Personally, I just hope people play well and make everyone proud. Some of the personality incidents I can do without.
 
jamesblakefan#1 said:
Umm to the bolded...07 AO final beatdown vs world #1 Sharapova? That certainly counts right? :lol:

Here's the highlights in case you forgot for some reason

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoUFX8DmKcE&feature=related
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OK I have to give you that one. That was an amazing performance. That was a rare one though, it doesnt happen often. Serena is a great player of course, the greatest of her generation at this moment. With her high risk game though her playing matches with very few errors vs a quality opponent even when playing very well are very few. When she does like that match it is even more scary and unbelievably great of course.
 
I honestly cant see anyone other than Clijsters or Serena winning. To me it is a 2 horse race almost, not totally as there are a few others who I give an outside shot to win, but those 2 are the clear top choices. I love Justine but with the combination of her brutal draw, her injury sustained in Brisbane that forced her out of Sydney, and it being only her 2nd event back, I would say winning it all would only be a small shot for her. So I am not really surprised at the votes so far. I confess I am a bit surprised how many more Kim has than Serena. However I do believe there are possible valid reasons for that:

1. Kim did win the last grand slam on hard courts, beating Serena in the process.

2. Kim did look great at the warm up event. Serena actually played better than she often does in the warmups but sustained a slight injury apparent.

3. Kim for the moment is still playing with a new freedom as if she has nothing to lose. She is basically playing mostly only for the slams now with a minimalistic schedule (even to a greater degree than Serena who people always say this of). For the moment she still feels under the radar and with nothing to lose, granted if she wins another slam that would probably change. Serena is feeling some pressure to defend her position with great players like Kim and Justine back, and others nipping at her heels.

4. Serena has won this event 4 of the last 7 years despite not being really dominant in any of them. Far less dominant than she has often been at Wimbledon and the U.S Open which somehow she has won fewer times. The law of averages would suggest she is due for a loss here.
 
anointedone said:
I honestly cant see anyone other than Clijsters or Serena winning. To me it is a 2 horse race almost, not totally as there are a few others who I give an outside shot to win, but those 2 are the clear top choices. I love Justine but with the combination of her brutal draw, her injury sustained in Brisbane that forced her out of Sydney, and it being only her 2nd event back, I would say winning it all would only be a small shot for her. So I am not really surprised at the votes so far. I confess I am a bit surprised how many more Kim has than Serena. However I do believe there are possible valid reasons for that:

1. Kim did win the last grand slam on hard courts, beating Serena in the process.

2. Kim did look great at the warm up event. Serena actually played better than she often does in the warmups but sustained a slight injury apparent.

3. Kim for the moment is still playing with a new freedom as if she has nothing to lose. She is basically playing mostly only for the slams now with a minimalistic schedule (even to a greater degree than Serena who people always say this of). For the moment she still feels under the radar and with nothing to lose, granted if she wins another slam that would probably change. Serena is feeling some pressure to defend her position with great players like Kim and Justine back, and others nipping at her heels.

4. Serena has won this event 4 of the last 7 years despite not being really dominant in any of them. Far less dominant than she has often been at Wimbledon and the U.S Open which somehow she has won fewer times. The law of averages would suggest she is due for a loss here.
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Clijsters won Brisbane, but that was a cupcake field really outside of her and Henin. And even still, she got bageled by Safarova in the QF there. So I don't think Clijsters is as unstoppable as some are making her to be, particularly in that section of the draw.
 
jamesblakefan#1 said:
Clijsters won Brisbane, but that was a cupcake field really outside of her and Henin. And even still, she got bageled by Safarova in the QF there. So I don't think Clijsters is as unstoppable as some are making her to be, particularly in that section of the draw.
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I am not saying Kim is unstoppable. I am just saying it doesnt surprise me many are picking her to win. She seems to have as good a chance as anyone else other than maybe Serena, and there are reasons to pick her over Serena as well potentially. Also her draw isnt tough at all until the quarters, and the quarters and finals might be her only tough opponents.

I dont think her losing a bagel set to Safarova means anything. She lost a bagel set to an injured Venus at the U.S Open and still beat Serena in the semis in straight sets. The winner of the Australian Open is likely to lose atleast one set, probably more than one. There is no women currently playing at the level of Serena of 2002-2003 or Justine 2003 and 2007.
 
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