World #1 Jannik Sinner is only the 3rd favorite…

[travlerajm]

For the US Open 2025 title, despite being the champion of the two most recent hardcourt slams.

After Carlos and Novak, per oddstrader.

Alcaraz +200
Djokovic +250
Sinner +300

Why are the oddsmakers (or the betting public) so reluctant to jump on the Jannik train?

 

[Midaso240]

Uncertainty of whether he will receive a ban is the only reason I can think of. Having Djokovic still that high when he will be 38.5 is a joke

 

[Sudacafan]

So we have betting odds nearly one year in advance... Are his odds better for USO 2026?

 

[Spin Diesel]

And all that, even if one posters here is talking about Sinner winning now another two AO&USO combos. These betting people are so ignorant..

 

[Hitman]

This is just crazy. Firstly, he is the dominant HC player, he holds both slams and three masters on HC, having anyone over right now on the surface doesn't make sense, plus that being ten months out. LOL

 

[travlerajm]

 

[mehdimike]

What about Meddy and Sasha?

 

[Drighiz]

For the US Open 2025 title, despite being the champion of the two most recent hardcourt slams.

After Carlos and Novak, per oddstrader.

Alcaraz +200
Djokovic +250
Sinner +300

Why are the oddsmakers (or the betting public) so reluctant to jump on the Jannik train?

The issue here is not really Sinner's odds, which are kinda fair, but the other two. They are paying off way too little. This is often the case when looking at odds a long time before the event since the bookies need to offer worse odds in order to account for unpredictability. If you convert those moneyline odds to probabilities you'll see they are quoting you Alcaraz as if he had a 50% chance of winning, Djokovic at 40% and Sinner at 33.33%. Add those up and you have a total probability of 123.33%, which is a huge profit margin for the bookies (and this doesn't include all the other players!!). Simply terrible odds.

 

[Tennfan123]

The oddsmakers can take some nice profits from casual fans that’s all.

 

[SonnyT]

Uncertainty of whether he will receive a ban is the only reason I can think of. Having Djokovic still that high when he will be 38.5 is a joke

Getting money out of unaware public because of the famous name is an old trick!

 

[TennisManiac]

Why is anyone talking about the 2025 US Open already?

 

[travlerajm]

Why is anyone talking about the 2025 US Open already?

Money to be made.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Why is anyone talking about the 2025 US Open already?

Exactly.
Obscure odds don't do anything.

 

[ibbi]

I don't think they're necessarily reluctant to jump on the Jannik train so much as they are reluctant to jump off the Novak train.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I don't think they're necessarily reluctant to jump on the Jannik train so much as they are reluctant to jump off the Novak train.

Plus why would anyone not consider possible ban of sinner. Odd 10 months in advance is useless when there is a possibility like this and that's why its not even worth discussing right now.

 

[travlerajm]

Plus why would anyone not consider possible ban of sinner. Odd 10 months in advance is useless when there is a possibility like this and that's why its not even worth discussing right now.

It’s worth discussing if you believe in Sinner’s innocence, because then you can bet on him at +300 and cash in.

 

[nolefam_2024]

It’s worth discussing if you believe in Sinner’s innocence, because then you can bet on him at +300 and cash in.

I don't believe in sinners innocence and no one should. I believe whatever the authorities believe and when 1 authority says he is innocent then he is innocent.

Right now another authority said there is still discussion pending so I will also wait. Now you are asking people to take financial risks..

My question is what is wrong with you. You seem to have a huge agenda vs sinner so did you take some bets against him or something. It's becoming serious. A good poster before going completely off the rails.

 

[travlerajm]

I don't believe in sinners innocence and no one should. I believe whatever the authorities believe and when 1 authority says he is innocent then he is innocent.

Right now another authority said there is still discussion pending so I will also wait. Now you are asking people to take financial risks..

My question is what is wrong with you. You seem to have a huge agenda vs sinner so did you take some bets against him or something. It's becoming serious. A good poster before going completely off the rails.

No agenda against Sinner. I was actually trying to find the odds for the Turin doubles title, as the outcome will affect me personally financially (it would be illegal for me to bet), but all I found were these curiously odd odds for the top 3 singles guys for 2025 us open.

 

[Sudacafan]

Gambling is a vice. I don't adhere to this thread, although I will not ask for its deletion.
Well, it's a vice I don't follow. I must be immune to it.

 

[Tallawah Tennis]

Man, it's obvious the odds projection is for a somewhat distant future event, and Jannik's accomplishments this year are also obviously ahead of the field. If I understand the point of this, it is precisely because Jannik is the current clear favourite that it seems strange that Carlitos and Novak are placed above him. The elephant in the room is Jannik's self-evident superiority on hc's this year. It's therefore reasonable to ask why Jannik is placed 3rd.

That said, a smattering of silliness on this topic seems appropriate.............

So we have betting odds nearly one year in advance... Are his odds better for USO 2026?

Yah, man. Excellent question. Frankly, its shocking this was not made clear by the bookies already, and you were put to the trouble of having to ask it. Example of the weak era wherever you turn, as if another were needed.

But it could be important to try and unravel the mystery behind these very odd, odds. Why did they make this projection? Some potentially likely answers:

1. They don't know what they're talking about.
2. To catch some blighters who don't know their eyes from their toes and entice them into a stupid bet, so that they can reel in lots of dosh ( I speak as one who knows sod all about betting in sports, but nevertheless feel I'm an expert). I wonder if any of the said blighters grace this forum .......
3. To show that faith / hope for Carlitos and Novak is not dead, and to encourage them to keep their chin up and remain positive. Otherwse, there is a terrible risk that:

a. Carlitos could make more complaints about the state of the hard courts. Tsk, tsk. With these odds, he has plenty of time to practice and try to meet the odds.
b. Novak could decide it's not worth getting out of bed to compete in the USO 2025, but with these odds, he might keep his kit next to his bed, ready to jump into, in order to meet the odds.

*** Meanwhile, Jannik will most likely smile the assassin's smile at this nonsense, clobber all and sundry in his path, sending these odds into kingdom come. The moral is, beware the one that should be named, but wasn't.

 

[Sudacafan]

Man, it's obvious the odds projection is for a somewhat distant future event, and Jannik's accomplishments this year are also obviously ahead of the field. If I understand the point of this, it is precisely because Jannik is the current clear favourite that it seems strange that Carlitos and Novak are placed above him. The elephant in the room is Jannik's self-evident superiority on hc's this year. It's therefore reasonable to ask why Jannik is placed 3rd.

That said, a smattering of silliness on this topic seems appropriate.............


Yah, man. Excellent question. Frankly, its shocking this was not made clear by the bookies already, and you were put to the trouble of having to ask it. Example of the weak era wherever you turn, as if another were needed.

But it could be important to try and unravel the mystery behind these very odd, odds. Why did they make this projection? Some potentially likely answers:

1. They don't know what they're talking about.
2. To catch some blighters who don't know their eyes from their toes and entice them into a stupid bet, so that they can reel in lots of dosh ( I speak as one who knows sod all about betting in sports, but nevertheless feel I'm an expert). I wonder if any of the said blighters grace this forum .......
3. To show that faith / hope for Carlitos and Novak is not dead, and to encourage them to keep their chin up and remain positive. Otherwse, there is a terrible risk that:

a. Carlitos could make more complaints about the state of the hard courts. Tsk, tsk. With these odds, he has plenty of time to practice and try to meet the odds.
b. Novak could decide it's not worth getting out of bed to compete in the USO 2025, but with these odds, he might keep his kit next to his bed, ready to jump into, in order to meet the odds.

*** Meanwhile, Jannik will most likely smile the assassin's smile at this nonsense, clobber all and sundry in his path, sending these odds into kingdom come. The moral is, beware the one that should be named, but wasn't.

I think they just want us to bet our money.

 

[Sudacafan]

(it would be illegal for me to bet)

Wow!

So you start a thread about something that is illegal for you.
And you comment a lot in the red wines thread, although you are a teetotaler since the beginning of the year.
I am finding a pattern here.

 

[socallefty]

Bookmakers set odds to keep the bets from customer somewhat even on both sides of a sporting contest. Then they make money irrespective of whatever result happens. As a result, popular teams and players get odds set differently from unpopular teams/players. The bookies want more people to bet on Sinner and not mostly on Alcaraz and Djokovic. Otherwise they might lose money if one of those two more popular players wins the title.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Bookmakers set odds to keep the bets from customer somewhat even on both sides of a sporting contest. Then they make money irrespective of whatever result happens. As a result, popular teams and players get odds set differently from unpopular teams/players. The bookies want more people to bet on Sinner and not mostly on Alcaraz and Djokovic. Otherwise they might lose money if one of those two more popular players wins the title.

Makes no sense. Highest bets during nole peak were for nole. Even though he was absolute favorite many times.

 

[TripleATeam]

They're good odds. But people bet on name, and Alcaraz and Djokovic are bigger names right now. Take the Sinner action and make some money.

To be charitable though, maybe bookmakers are bullish on Alcaraz because they've seen him win in 3 separate years. He's consistently been in the running pretty much everywhere. Djokovic is Djokovic. He's the last titan and if anyone can win any given championship, it's him.

Sinner? He's only really become a name in the last 12-14 months. Yes, he's won both HC slams this year, but he hadn't ever made a semifinal before this year. I could see him coming back down to Earth, though I don't predict it to happen.

Personally I'd go
+250 Alcaraz
+250 Sinner
+350 Djokovic

 

[The Guru]

Maybe injury concerns as this has been Sinner's only healthy season. You'd think there'd be more concern for the geriatric on that front tho...

 

[Aussie Darcy]

If you're that sure that Sinner is going to win it, load all your money on him and you'll win a fortune with those good odds.

And if you're wrong, then that shows you weren't right to be so cocky in the first place and that gambling is inherently stupid and means nothing for the end result

 

[mtommer]

Why are the oddsmakers (or the betting public) so reluctant to jump on the Jannik train?

Call up Vegas and ask.

 

[GloW]

For the US Open 2025 title, despite being the champion of the two most recent hardcourt slams.

After Carlos and Novak, per oddstrader.

Alcaraz +200
Djokovic +250
Sinner +300

Why are the oddsmakers (or the betting public) so reluctant to jump on the Jannik train?

1: they always favor carlos for some reason.
2. Djokovic has 24 slams
3. Carrot juice

 

[SonnyT]

1: they always favor carlos for some reason.

Maybe H2H, Carlos leads 3-1, including the first win in series for Jannik and including two wins for Carlos the past year! Jannik has yet to prove he could take Carlos firing on all cylinders.