Because you have a distorted perception of the match due to your only remembering and overemphasizing certain points.
In reality if you hit a good shot your opponent has a 50% chance of missing instantly so no matter what you are guaranteed to be at least dead even.
What if that's not the reality? What if your "too good" shot is not good enough to cause your opponent to make UEs? Not only that, when you try to hit "too good" shot, you also probably have 50% of overhitting it as well. You didn't take into account the fact that I could miss those too good shots. It wouldn't be 50% in the end.
I'm saying this based on my own experience in the past. Even my "good" shots aren't good enough to cause UEs from my opponent, one reason he's extremely fast and consistent. And 2 common scenarios are: I overhit or I get a short ball (sure he mishits sometimes but not often enough)
When the ball comes back short, if you don't have the skills, you will most likely miss it and it's not just a mental thing, it could just be that you are bad. Besides, mental is also part of the game, if you're not confident at that moment that you can put the ball away, then chances are you will miss it.
Also, did your math take into account there are several scenarios that I could lose the point when getting a short ball:
- I could hit the ball into the net or hit it long
- My opponent lobs and I can't smash
- I hit the ball in but not good enough so he hits a passing shot winner or I miss the volley
- Try to put the ball anywhere in the court, he reaches to the ball cuz he's fast then hits a winner.
There are more losing scenarios than winning scenarios when getting a short ball (given my skills at the net are bad). So, statistically, I should lose more than win at the net (which is proven by my losses)
What's your definition of an even match?
It's not an even match if you expose your weaknesses. Would it be an even match if Nadal play serve-volley like Mischa Zverev against other guys on tour? Don't think so, despite they're all are 7.0.
So when I play the style that suits my opponent, it will become uneven, I'd get trashed. When I play a style that doesn't suit my opponent, it will become even.
I've foolishly played the style that u suggested and lost countless number of times.
I lost enough times by playing the ideal game when my skills weren't ready for it. Probably can't speak for everyone but, at least, that's what happened to me.