Would Ash Barty beat peak Serena on all surfaces?

Would Barty beat peak Serena on all surfaces?

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Jokervich

Jokervich

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I don't follow the womens game much, but Ash Barty seems to be dominating it right now. She is crushing all her competition in the Australian Open, not even dropping a set so far.

I am curious to know if she would beat peak Serena on all surfaces. Or if she's just dominating a weak womens era right now and she's not actually that good.
 
Jokervich said:
and has the perfect slice backhand to neutralize a big serve like Serena's.
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Imagine Ash’s sliced BH return against peak Serena :-D:-D:-D as Jason once said, Peak Serena didn’t miss first serves. She would eat those returns for lunch.

Hell, forget the serve, imagine Ash trying to do battle with Serena from the ground. You can get Serena to cough up some errors with the slice and variety (this is a slight weakness of hers that I think favors Graf in a hypothetical) but Serena has:

-better court coverage
-better accuracy
-way way more power
-better ability to attack 2nd serves
-better FH
-better BH
-better ball striking on every single surface
-better volleying and forward movement

Barty is a good player, she really does have talent and a great tennis brain. But let’s not forget who Serena is.
 
Jokervich said:
Not sure what's so funny. She is number 1 player in the world, currently dominating the women's game and has the perfect slice backhand to neutralize a big serve like Serena's.
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She's the #1 in a pretty weak field. A peak Serena, as much as I dislike her on-court and off-court behavior, was so dominant and so far beyond pretty much anyone that she would have buried Barty six feet under any court surface. The post-match interview would have been a eulogy.
 
It's an interesting question.

Peak Serena was - at times - fairly unplayable for the majority of the tour at the time. But, when was "peak" Serena? That's something to consider in this question.

One thing is that Serena simply hit with far more pace and force than almost anyone on the tour for quite a long time. It was a hard, and sometimes heavy ball. However, aside from Serena aging, the tour and players on the tour have changed and now, that kind of pace isn't that uncommon. In fact, you started to see Serena herself have difficulty handling the pace of some of her younger competitors. Some of it had to do with her lesser mobility which probably impacts her footwork. However, I think the majority of it is that Serena didn't have to deal with players that hit like her for the majority of her career and it can clearly be a problem for her.

The easy answer is Serena, because she was just a total handful with her pace and serve. But, I wonder. Younger Serena was incredibly athletic (something that's easy to forget now after seeing her play the last several years) and a great mover in addition to her offensive firepower, but she wasn't a thinker out there, she just hit and ran her way through problems. She could occasionally be thrown off by smart players. Older, veteran Serena is pretty wise, has a high tennis IQ, but doesn't have the physical gifts of the younger one. In between, she wasn't always as focused. Her career has been so long that she's evolved a fair amount over the years.

I think younger players are used to the kind of pace that Serena generates and it's not uncommon on the tour anymore. Barty's a very smart, well rounded, tactical player and deals with hitters and runners, and stays pretty steady. It might be a better match than some are giving credit for.
 
Crazy Finn said:
It's an interesting question.

Peak Serena was - at times - fairly unplayable for the majority of the tour at the time. But, when was "peak" Serena? That's something to consider in this question.

One thing is that Serena simply hit with far more pace and force than almost anyone on the tour for quite a long time. It was a hard, and sometimes heavy ball. However, aside from Serena aging, the tour and players on the tour have changed and now, that kind of pace isn't that uncommon. In fact, you started to see Serena herself have difficulty handling the pace of some of her younger competitors. Some of it had to do with her lesser mobility which probably impacts her footwork. However, I think the majority of it is that Serena didn't have to deal with players that hit like her for the majority of her career and it can clearly be a problem for her.

The easy answer is Serena, because she was just a total handful with her pace and serve. But, I wonder. Younger Serena was incredibly athletic (something that's easy to forget now after seeing her play the last several years) and a great mover in addition to her offensive firepower, but she wasn't a thinker out there, she just hit and ran her way through problems. She could occasionally be thrown off by smart players. Older, veteran Serena is pretty wise, has a high tennis IQ, but doesn't have the physical gifts of the younger one. In between, she wasn't always as focused. Her career has been so long that she's evolved a fair amount over the years.

I think younger players are used to the kind of pace that Serena generates and it's not uncommon on the tour anymore. Barty's a very smart, well rounded, tactical player and deals with hitters and runners, and stays pretty steady. It might be a better match than some are giving credit for.
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Great analysis. I think if Barty can neutralize the serve with her slice backhand, or even slice forehand, she could give Serena a good match from the baseline. No one on the tour seems able to deal with her variety and her slice.
 
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Ok, this is officially a stupid thread. I just looked up the stats. They have played 3 times. First two were 2014 and 2018, well past Serena's prime, and Serena won both of them. The one in 2014 was closer to Serena's prime and she demolished Barty. The third was 2021. Serena was ahead 5-1 first set and had to retire.

Like I said earlier, a prime Serena would have murderized Barty.
 
MiamiWeekendWarrior said:
Ok, this is officially a stupid thread. I just looked up the stats. They have played 3 times. First two were 2014 and 2018, well past Serena's prime, and Serena won both of them. The one in 2014 was closer to Serena's prime and she demolished Barty. The third was 2021. Serena was ahead 5-1 first set and had to retire.

Like I said earlier, a prime Serena would have murderized Barty.
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Barty didn't enter her prime until 2019. In 2014 she was just 17 lol.
 
Forget about Serena, barty would struggle against peak henin, Venus, clijsters and perhaps even Maria. The current tour is fairly inconsistent and lack variety to tackle the barty slice.

One of the most underrated aspects of Serena’s game is her ability to problem solve. Barty might trouble Serena initially with her slices and variety but Serena would find a way.
 
The thing with Serena is when she was playing at her peak level there was not really such a thing as a “match from the baseline”.

Unless you were serving with great disguise and placement, you’re starting 85% of return points from a disadvantage and 60% of your 2nd serves from a disadvantage. Clijsters and Henin could mitigate this with incredible ball striking and defense, Venus/MaSha could sometimes overpower her, but Barty has neither. note that Barty’s returning while good is mainly blocking/slicing returns back, she’s not particularly aggressive.

a really good Barty comparison is Amelie Mauresmo actually. Crafty, 1HBH player who sliced a lot. Serena absolutely owned her. And importantly peak Serena’s mental strength was her best trait which is why even if Barty somehow did get a lead, Serena would come back and hit lasers for 4 games stright.

Barty's only experience with something approaching Serena's raw power is Sabalenka, who she has a 4-4 record with. So imagine Sabalenka, except make her the best mover on the entire WTA tour, add 10mph and more spin to her serve, and now she has better shot tolerance, mental strength, and footwork than anyone Barty's ever played. That's somewhat approaching what peak Serena was.
 
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Kralingen said:
Imagine Ash’s sliced BH return against peak Serena :-D:-D:-D as Jason once said, Peak Serena didn’t miss first serves. She would eat those returns for lunch.

Hell, forget the serve, imagine Ash trying to do battle with Serena from the ground. You can get Serena to cough up some errors with the slice and variety (this is a slight weakness of hers that I think favors Graf in a hypothetical) but Serena has:

-better court coverage
-better accuracy
-way way more power
-better ability to attack 2nd serves
-better FH
-better BH
-better ball striking on every single surface
-better volleying and forward movement

Barty is a good player, she really does have talent and a great tennis brain. But let’s not forget who Serena is.
Click to expand...

Barty could win a random match here or there when Serena plays poorly, but this list covers why Serena is several tiers ahead of Barty as a player putting aside accomplishments.
 
MichaelNadal said:
:-D
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This. End thread. Barty would get a few games, is all. It would be carnage for the most part.

That said, saying that someone who's not as good as Serena is not that good is the polar opposite extreme. There have been lots of wonderful WTA players, some among the greatest of the game, who would still get beaten by peak Serena. Peak Serena is more than a force of nature. The best serve, return and groundie combo ever in the women's game.
 
gadge said:
The only players with more than 4 wins against Serena:
Venus
Hingis
Henin
Dementieva
Capriati

They all are better ball strikers and movers than barty and played Serena in her early years (except henin and dementieva)
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Hingis isn't a better ball striker than Barty. And had a much weaker serve, by far. If we are talking about weak or inconsistent eras, Hingis walked into one of the biggest voids ever seen. No Graf, no Seles and with Williams sisters, Davenport et al still a long way from contending for slams. There's no way Hingis wins three slams in a year with Venus and Serena being competitive.
 
Dolgopolov85 said:
Hingis isn't a better ball striker than Barty. And had a much weaker serve, by far. If we are talking about weak or inconsistent eras, Hingis walked into one of the biggest voids ever seen. No Graf, no Seles and with Williams sisters, Davenport et al still a long way from contending for slams. There's no way Hingis wins three slams in a year with Venus and Serena being competitive.
Click to expand...
779976.jpg
 
Dolgopolov85 said:
Hingis isn't a better ball striker than Barty. And had a much weaker serve, by far. If we are talking about weak or inconsistent eras, Hingis walked into one of the biggest voids ever seen. No Graf, no Seles and with Williams sisters, Davenport et al still a long way from contending for slams. There's no way Hingis wins three slams in a year with Venus and Serena being competitive.
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Hingis atleast had a backhand. Barty just slices. Regarding the serve dementieva had an even worse serve. So does kerber.
 
Dolgopolov85 said:
Hingis isn't a better ball striker than Barty. And had a much weaker serve, by far. If we are talking about weak or inconsistent eras, Hingis walked into one of the biggest voids ever seen. No Graf, no Seles and with Williams sisters, Davenport et al still a long way from contending for slams. There's no way Hingis wins three slams in a year with Venus and Serena being competitive.
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Explain why hingis has a respectable h2h against Serena and Venus.
 
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Dolgopolov85 said:
No, Barty doesn't just slice, she has a double hander and uses it often, watch some more and don't resent her getting success in the wake of Osaka's decline or something. And Barty has a way better forehand than Hingis, it's not even close.
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Barty rarely hits a two hander and it’s not that great. Her forehand is better than hingis but we’re talking about success against Serena and not who’s a better player.
 
gadge said:
Explain why hingis has a respectable h2h against Serena and Venus.
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Simply because she played them in their early years before they became relentless win machines. Both Williams sisters needed to grow into their fully mature physical selves, unlike Hingis, because power was an important component of their game. Hingis was like Peter Pan in a way, she never got more powerful as she hit her late teens or early twenties. She was the same and the tour overtook her in short order. Helped on likely by her own arrogance and belief that her tactical genius would overcome all obstacles, until it didn't.
 
gadge said:
Barty rarely hits a two hander and it’s not that great. Her forehand is better than hingis but we’re talking about success against Serena and not who’s a better player.
Click to expand...

No, no, don't divert, you included Hingis in a list of players who strike the ball better than Barty. Very doubtful how you can do that with a much weaker forehand.
 
Dolgopolov85 said:
Simply because she played them in their early years before they became relentless win machines. Both Williams sisters needed to grow into their fully mature physical selves, unlike Hingis, because power was an important component of their game. Hingis was like Peter Pan in a way, she never got more powerful as she hit her late teens or early twenties. She was the same and the tour overtook her in short order. Helped on likely by her own arrogance and belief that her tactical genius would overcome all obstacles, until it didn't.
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I did mention only henin and dementieva had success against Serena after her early years. ‍♂️
 
gadge said:
I did mention only henin and dementieva had success against Serena after her early years. ‍♂
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But you also said Hingis is a better ball striker than Barty. Don't backtrack now. The forehand is the more dominant of the groundstrokes, so with a weaker forehand you are not going to be a better ball striker than another player.
 
Jokervich said:
I don't follow the womens game much, but Ash Barty seems to be dominating it right now. She is crushing all her competition in the Australian Open, not even dropping a set so far.

I am curious to know if she would beat peak Serena on all surfaces. Or if she's just dominating a weak womens era right now and she's not actually that good.
Click to expand...
She’s good but Serena is one of the GOATs. Being good isn’t enough to beat Serena. Vika, Maria, clijsters were also pretty good but they didn’t have much success against Serena either.
 
gadge said:
Regarding the serve dementieva had an even worse serve. So does kerber.
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And I don't remember agreeing with you that Dementieva is better than Barty. She's not. She just played Serena lots of times. Most of her wins came from 2008-10 when Serena was hampered by illnesses. Serena won all of their first four matches played in 2003-04. Oh and one of the wins Dementieva earned was a walkover. So it's actually four and not five wins if you are using H2H to determine competitiveness with that player.
 
Dolgopolov85 said:
And I don't remember agreeing with you that Dementieva is better than Barty. She's not. She just played Serena lots of times. Most of her wins came from 2008-10 when Serena was hampered by illnesses. Serena won all of their first four matches played in 2003-04. Oh and one of the wins Dementieva earned was a walkover. So it's actually four and not five wins if you are using H2H to determine competitiveness with that player.
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Ok fine I accept defeat. Barty would destroy Serena every time they play, okay?
 
Hingis was 6-7 vs. Serena, and that was the most athletic version of Serena ever.
Hingis even beat Serena and Venus back-to-back at the 2001 AO, and Hingis retired from tennis the next year!
8TVcje5.jpg


Dolgopolov85 said:
Nope, the last time Hingis beat Serena was AO 2001. Serena won their last three matches in 2001 and 2002 and that was just when her juggernaut was getting started. Had Hingis played in 2003, she would have suffered more losses at the hands of Serena. Hingis is way overrated here and I suspect mostly because her days of dominating the WTA in 97-98 evoke nostalgic memories for 90s kids. I loved watching Hingis too. I don't confuse that with overrating her. Hingis had no answer to power, period.
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Serena only beat the injured Hingis, and Hingis only played 2 slams in 2002 and retired with torn ankle ligaments and sued the shoe company.
Serena got lucky, similar to Graf being lucky when Seles was tragically stabbed.
 
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gadge said:
Ok fine I accept defeat. Barty would destroy Serena every time they play, okay?
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I never said that. If you had read upthread, I said clearly there that peak Serena would destroy Barty. It was you who conflated the argument about Barty with one about how some of these other players were better ball strikers than Barty. Actually Dementieva was a better BALL STRIKER than Barty, yes, but didn't have a great serve. Hingis - no serve and an OK forehand.
 
deliberate23stranger said:
Hingis was 6-7 vs. Serena, and that was the most athletic version of Serena ever.
Hingis even beat Serena and Venus back-to-back at the 2001 AO, and Hingis retired from tennis the next year!
8TVcje5.jpg
Click to expand...
Nope, the last time Hingis beat Serena was AO 2001. Serena won their last three matches in 2001 and 2002 and that was just when her juggernaut was getting started. Had Hingis played in 2003, she would have suffered more losses at the hands of Serena. Hingis is way overrated here and I suspect mostly because her days of dominating the WTA in 97-98 evoke nostalgic memories for 90s kids. I loved watching Hingis too. I don't confuse that with overrating her. Hingis had no answer to power, period.
 
Dolgopolov85 said:
I never said that. If you had read upthread, I said clearly there that peak Serena would destroy Barty. It was you who conflated the argument about Barty with one about how some of these other players were better ball strikers than Barty. Actually Dementieva was a better BALL STRIKER than Barty, yes, but didn't have a great serve. Hingis - no serve and an OK forehand.
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Hingis didn’t have a better fh than barty but she was very solid from the baseline without any UFE and definitely is a better mover and anticipator than barty which helped her against the William sisters.
 
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