Would Ash Barty beat peak Serena on all surfaces?

[Dolgopolov85]

Hingis didn’t have a better fh than barty but she was very solid from the baseline without any UFE and definitely is a better mover and anticipator than barty which helped her against the William sisters.

Again, read above, the last time she beat Serena was AO 01. That's not THE Serena who would dominate women's tennis. I know, I was there. After 99, Serena went on a walkabout for two whole years and only in late 01 did she start to pick up the pieces. 2002-03 was peak Serena. Hingis never faced that version (well except Miami 2002 which she lost, duh). The Serena she beat was pretty much a UE machine and highly inconsistent.

 

[insideguy]

I just don't think people remember very well that Serenas serve was a monster. She was winning matches before she stepped on the court if she had a decent serving day. When you have that advantage, you put so much pressure on the other players serve.

I mean honestly the last few years when she was winning slams her serve won them for her. And the last few years when she wasn't winning slams her serve had left her. So she was slower and had to rally off the lines with much younger players. But her serve was so good for so long especially in her late 20s it gave her a huge advantage. She was really good.

I mean she was in 32 slam finals

 

[NAS]

Barty is not better than Serena on any surface including indoors.

 

[Wander]

No. Peak Serena had best serve of all time. This is why she won so much. Many easy points

Interestingly enough the gap between Barty's and Serena's career stats seems to be bigger on return. Barty has a very good serve and these days is posting serve point win% numbers very similar to some peak Serena years. On return games she's further behind behind.

For example:
For last 52 weeks Barty's won 75.3% of 1st serve points.

This is in fact a higher number than Serena's 1st serve points won % from 2003 to 2009, equal to Serena in 2010 and out of the more 'full' schedule Serena seasons only falls behind 2012, 2015 and 2016.*
On 2nd serve their career numbers are very close. 49.4% Ash, 49.7% Serena. For the last 52 weeks Ash is at 50.1%

It is worth pointing out that Serena through her career has had a higher ace% than Ash - most likely because she hit 1st serves with more pace - but Ash's placement and serve +1 shot are so good that they seem to almost make up for it.


But on return. Serena won 47% of all return points since 2003.* Ash is at 44.2% for career and even for the last 52 weeks 'only' at 45.6%.
It is entirely possible that peak Serena had the best serve of all time, but I'm just pointing out here that Ash's serve is so good that this is most likely not the biggest difference maker between these two and their career results thus far.


*Tennis Abstract only has the numbers from 2003 onwards

 

[gadge]

Interestingly enough the gap between Barty's and Serena's career stats seems to be bigger on return. Barty has a very good serve and these days is posting serve point win% numbers very similar to some peak Serena years. On return games she's further behind behind.

For example:
For last 52 weeks Barty's won 75.3% of 1st serve points.

This is in fact a higher number than Serena's 1st serve points won % from 2003 to 2009, equal to Serena in 2010 and out of the more 'full' schedule Serena seasons only falls behind 2012, 2015 and 2016.*
On 2nd serve their career numbers are very close. 49.4% Ash, 49.7% Serena. For the last 52 weeks Ash is at 50.1%

It is worth pointing out that Serena through her career has had a higher ace% than Ash - most likely because she hit 1st serves with more pace - but Ash's placement and serve +1 shot are so good that they seem to almost make up for it.


But on return. Serena won 47% of all return points since 2003.* Ash is at 44.2% for career and even for the last 52 weeks 'only' at 45.6%.
It is entirely possible that peak Serena had the best serve of all time, but I'm just pointing out here that Ash's serve is so good that this is most likely not the biggest difference maker between these two and their career results thus far.


*Tennis Abstract only has the numbers from 2003 onwards

What are the stats on second serve. Barty doesn’t attack the second serves as much as Serena and Serena’s second serve is a lot better than barty.

 

[tx10is]

Barty is very good, but she is no Serena. People may have issues with her on court behavior sometimes, but when it comes to strictly just playing tennis, most people will agree that Serena in her prime was one of the best to ever play the game.

 

[ibbi]

If by peak Serena you mean the elderly fatty that almost won the grand slam, then absolutely. If you mean actual peak Serena 02/03, then it is highly unlikely. Ash Barty has yet to even make a major final on a hard court, so the idea of her beating Serena at her best is a bit lol worthy.

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Ok, this is officially a stupid thread. I just looked up the stats. They have played 3 times. First two were 2014 and 2018, well past Serena's prime, and Serena won both of them. The one in 2014 was closer to Serena's prime and she demolished Barty. The third was 2021. Serena was ahead 5-1 first set and had to retire.

Like I said earlier, a prime Serena would have murderized Barty.

Not you not understanding google. They didn’t play in 2021. Serena gave Barty a walkover. The 5-1 you quote? Serena was the 5th seed, Barty the 1st seed lmao.

Serena has never played Barty since she’s become a slam champion and #1 so don’t compare those matches ok?

 

[aman92]

This thread topic is frankly beyond ludicrous. Serena has owned players light years ahead of Barty in terms of skill level

 

[Tostao80]

This thread topic is frankly beyond ludicrous. Serena has owned players light years ahead of Barty in terms of skill level

Lol yeah. How many slams has Barty won, to warrant the comparison?

 

[ibbi]

Has Medvedev been taking serving lessons from Zverev?

 

[IgoatFerlkeVogus]

I never said that. If you had read upthread, I said clearly there that peak Serena would destroy Barty. It was you who conflated the argument about Barty with one about how some of these other players were better ball strikers than Barty. Actually Dementieva was a better BALL STRIKER than Barty, yes, but didn't have a great serve. Hingis - no serve and an OK forehand.

Big Delusion

 

[IgoatFerlkeVogus]

Imagine Ash’s sliced BH return against peak Serena as Jason once said, Peak Serena didn’t miss first serves. She would eat those returns for lunch.

Hell, forget the serve, imagine Ash trying to do battle with Serena from the ground. You can get Serena to cough up some errors with the slice and variety (this is a slight weakness of hers that I think favors Graf in a hypothetical) but Serena has:

-better court coverage
-better accuracy
-way way more power
-better ability to attack 2nd serves
-better FH
-better BH
-better ball striking on every single surface
-better volleying and forward movement

Barty is a good player, she really does have talent and a great tennis brain. But let’s not forget who Serena is.

Wishful thinking

 

[puppybutts]

barty couldn't even beat serena in 2018, a year before barty won FO and just months after serena gave birth. serena played better tennis, and tactically she knew how to play barty's slice, moving to net on a few of ash's floaters. barty has of course improved since then, but not as much as serena's level dropped. serena dominated for 20 years across multiple eras. comparatively barty has only began dominating the past few years. as barty was claiming #1 rank, serena was still making the most slam finals of anyone.

i mean just watch serena vs azarenka USO 2012/2013, or serena vs kuznetsova FO 2013, serena vs anyone during her 2012/2015 wimbledon runs. then watch any of barty's matches on any surface from any year. the level does not come close to comparison. and that's not even bringing up pre-2012 stuff serena accomplished well before barty's age now.

 

[Jokervich]

Explain the 2021 match in which a sick/injured well-past-her-prime Serena was up 5-1 in the first set? Well? I'll wait.

Well we'll never know the result of that match because it wasn't completed, so kind of a moot point.

 

[Keizer]

Barty isn’t even beating prime Henin lol

 

[onefineday]

I am sorry to say this, as I respect Barty, but are we talking about Serena 2002-2003? She would beat Barty in straights on any surface.

 

[ND-13]

No one but Alize Cornet knew how to beat Serena.

 

[Autodidactic player]

Serena would win on all surfaces. But, I'd still like Barty more!

 

[MiamiWeekendWarrior]

Not you not understanding google. They didn’t play in 2021. Serena gave Barty a walkover. The 5-1 you quote? Serena was the 5th seed, Barty the 1st seed lmao.

Serena has never played Barty since she’s become a slam champion and #1 so don’t compare those matches ok?

Thank you for the clarification. I did indeed see the seed numbers and mistook it for the score. That said, none of that changes anything I said. Any version of Barty has absolutely nothing for Serena. And in case I didn't mention it, I can't stand Serena. She is my least favorite player of all time and I am happy every time she loses. My answer is 100% objective.

 

[abmk]

Nope, the last time Hingis beat Serena was AO 2001. Serena won their last three matches in 2001 and 2002 and that was just when her juggernaut was getting started. Had Hingis played in 2003, she would have suffered more losses at the hands of Serena. Hingis is way overrated here and I suspect mostly because her days of dominating the WTA in 97-98 evoke nostalgic memories for 90s kids. I loved watching Hingis too. I don't confuse that with overrating her. Hingis had no answer to power, period.

I didn't watch WTA of that time that much, I think the problem was Hingis had to face a field of too many competent+ power hitters (Serena, Venus, Davenport, Capriati, Seles, Pierce etc.). She could take down 1 power hitter and maybe 2, but 3 in a row was too much.
She ran circles around Seles (admittedly a past her best Seles)

Edit: reading the thread, I think you under-rate Hingis. yeah, 3 slams in 97 was too much, but she was denied too many slams due to the deep field in 00-02.

 

[Steffi-forever]

Imagine Ash’s sliced BH return against peak Serena as Jason once said, Peak Serena didn’t miss first serves. She would eat those returns for lunch.

Hell, forget the serve, imagine Ash trying to do battle with Serena from the ground. You can get Serena to cough up some errors with the slice and variety (this is a slight weakness of hers that I think favors Graf in a hypothetical) but Serena has:

-better court coverage
-better accuracy
-way way more power
-better ability to attack 2nd serves
-better FH
-better BH
-better ball striking on every single surface
-better volleying and forward movement

Barty is a good player, she really does have talent and a great tennis brain. But let’s not forget who Serena is.

Peak and prime Serena lost vs several journey women, slamless players. Barty is a quality player, she would beat her sometimes.

 

[Kralingen]

Peak and prime Serena lost vs several journey women, slamless players. Barty is a quality player, she would beat her sometimes.

She went 10-2 vs. Amelie Mauresmo which is basically where I think a H2H ends up in real life. Utter dominance from Serena.

I am not convinced Barty is actually better than Mauresmo for what it's worth. Would love to hear a convincing argument that she is.

 

[Steffi-forever]

She went 10-2 vs. Amelie Mauresmo which is basically where I think a H2H ends up in real life. Utter dominance from Serena.

I am not convinced Barty is actually better than Mauresmo for what it's worth. Would love to hear a convincing argument that she is.

The thread is about if Barty would be able to beat Serena! I said say yes, but I didn’t say she would dominate her!

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Thank you for the clarification. I did indeed see the seed numbers and mistook it for the score. That said, none of that changes anything I said. Any version of Barty has absolutely nothing for Serena. And in case I didn't mention it, I can't stand Serena. She is my least favorite player of all time and I am happy every time she loses. My answer is 100% objective.

Stosur who possessed a game no better than Barty defeated a great Serena in the 2011 USO final so I’m sure Barty could definitely defeat Serena. Not saying she’d win at every slam but people here are saying Barty is so weak she couldn’t even defeat Serena at her weakest.

Serena lost in straight sets to Osaka at last years AO SF, Anisimova defeated Osaka at this years AO 3R in straight sets and Barty defeated Anisimova in straight sets. Barty is doing everything in style. What more do people want? Barty would relish the chance to play Serena right now but she ain’t playing. She’d love to play Osaka right now but she lost 3R. To blame Barty for all of this is ludicrous.

 

[Quaichang]

I don't follow the womens game much, but Ash Barty seems to be dominating it right now. She is crushing all her competition in the Australian Open, not even dropping a set so far.

I am curious to know if she would beat peak Serena on all surfaces. Or if she's just dominating a weak womens era right now and she's not actually that good.

The slice bh won’t work against peak Serena

 

[Quaichang]

Stosur who possessed a game no better than Barty defeated a great Serena in the 2011 USO final so I’m sure Barty could definitely defeat Serena. Not saying she’d win at every slam but people here are saying Barty is so weak she couldn’t even defeat Serena at her weakest.

Serena lost in straight sets to Osaka at last years AO SF, Anisimova defeated Osaka at this years AO 3R in straight sets and Barty defeated Anisimova in straight sets. Barty is doing everything in style. What more do people want? Barty would relish the chance to play Serena right now but she ain’t playing. She’d love to play Osaka right now but she lost 3R. To blame Barty for all of this is ludicrous.

Stosur played the best match of her life in that USO final

 

[Purestriker]

Stosur who possessed a game no better than Barty defeated a great Serena in the 2011 USO final so I’m sure Barty could definitely defeat Serena. Not saying she’d win at every slam but people here are saying Barty is so weak she couldn’t even defeat Serena at her weakest.

Serena lost in straight sets to Osaka at last years AO SF, Anisimova defeated Osaka at this years AO 3R in straight sets and Barty defeated Anisimova in straight sets. Barty is doing everything in style. What more do people want? Barty would relish the chance to play Serena right now but she ain’t playing. She’d love to play Osaka right now but she lost 3R. To blame Barty for all of this is ludicrous.

Today I agree, Serena is not beating her. But at her peak, I don't think Barty would beat her.

 

[Graf1stClass]

Imo Ashleigh is now somewhat like Graf was back in the day.. Like a 'mini' Graf. She has the slice and she has the court craft, maybe even a little smarter than Graf and is more tactical, but she does not have anything like Steffi's athleticism or the mental toughness... Peak Serena had all of these things, in spades. Comparing her to Ashleigh is slander

Just because she beat Pegula, she deserves to be #1 but let's not oversell her just yet. Her USO loss was a debacle and it gave us the Emma saga.. Pegula (bless her heart) besides does not have the game to play a slice n dicer anyhow.... we all remember her issues

https://imgur.com/ja2Gi9W

 

[Graf1stClass]

Hingis had no answer to power, period.

Sonica Meles

 

[Nostradamus]

no she can
t

 

[Bhagi Katbamna]

No way. She doesn't have the fire power in her backhand to trouble peak Serena. Those slices would be eaten up.

 

[gadge]

Stosur who possessed a game no better than Barty defeated a great Serena in the 2011 USO final so I’m sure Barty could definitely defeat Serena. Not saying she’d win at every slam but people here are saying Barty is so weak she couldn’t even defeat Serena at her weakest.

Serena lost in straight sets to Osaka at last years AO SF, Anisimova defeated Osaka at this years AO 3R in straight sets and Barty defeated Anisimova in straight sets. Barty is doing everything in style. What more do people want? Barty would relish the chance to play Serena right now but she ain’t playing. She’d love to play Osaka right now but she lost 3R. To blame Barty for all of this is ludicrous.

A Serena who was just coming off a life threatening lay off. Apart from that one match tell their other matches. Regards to Osaka, she’s good but no where near Serena. She’s got the first serve and ground strokes similar to Serena and that’s where the similarities end. Serena has much better tennis IQ and is a miles ahead in terms of movement and variety.

We’re talking about peak Serena not the nearly 40 year old Serena who has very little mobility and mental strength.

 

[MiamiWeekendWarrior]

Stosur who possessed a game no better than Barty defeated a great Serena in the 2011 USO final so I’m sure Barty could definitely defeat Serena. Not saying she’d win at every slam but people here are saying Barty is so weak she couldn’t even defeat Serena at her weakest.

Serena lost in straight sets to Osaka at last years AO SF, Anisimova defeated Osaka at this years AO 3R in straight sets and Barty defeated Anisimova in straight sets. Barty is doing everything in style. What more do people want? Barty would relish the chance to play Serena right now but she ain’t playing. She’d love to play Osaka right now but she lost 3R. To blame Barty for all of this is ludicrous.

No one's blaming Barty for anything. Just saying that a peak Serena is better than a peak Barty. A peak Serena is better than pretty much anyone with a few exceptions, maybe Hingis, Steffi, and one or two others.

 

[wangs78]

I don't think Barty would even beat peak Clijsters and Henin...

 

[gadge]

I don't think Barty would even beat peak Clijsters and Henin...

No she wouldn’t. Unlike most players these days the Belgians had more than one dimension to their game.

 

[fed1]

No way. She doesn't have the fire power in her backhand to trouble peak Serena. Those slices would be eaten up.

Like she ate up those Vinci slices !!!

 

[gadge]

Like she ate up those Vinci slices !!!

That was the only time Vinci beat Serena. Serena crumbled under the CYGS. We’re talking about beating her consistently.

 

[pat200]

Peak Serena, peak Graf and peak Navratilova would probably win everything in sight in the current wta tour...So many of the players are horrible movers, big ball bashers with no brains, and almost no mental strength whatsoever.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Peak Osaka would

 

[gadge]

Peak Osaka would

On clay and grass too?

 

[thrust]

I don't follow the womens game much, but Ash Barty seems to be dominating it right now. She is crushing all her competition in the Australian Open, not even dropping a set so far.

I am curious to know if she would beat peak Serena on all surfaces. Or if she's just dominating a weak womens era right now and she's not actually that good.

On clay, perhaps but peak Serena would dominate Ash and any of today's top players on any surface off clay. So would Venus, Justine, Kim, Lindsay, Maria and Hingis.

 

[heftylefty]

I think Barty would fair well against Serena on clay. Serena serve and big ground strokes would be blunted by the surface. Also, the one thing working in Barty's favor is she's an athlete who can play tennis. This gives her a puncher's chance against Serena or the other all time greats.

 

[PilotPete]

Thank you for the clarification. I did indeed see the seed numbers and mistook it for the score. That said, none of that changes anything I said. Any version of Barty has absolutely nothing for Serena. And in case I didn't mention it, I can't stand Serena. She is my least favorite player of all time and I am happy every time she loses. My answer is 100% objective.

Huh? Of course it changes what you said about them playing in 2021.

 

[MiamiWeekendWarrior]

Huh? Of course it changes what you said about them playing in 2021.

You're not paying attention or deliberately being obtuse. What I said is that no version of Barty beats a peak Serena. None of what you said changes that.

 

[insideguy]

I think Barty would fair well against Serena on clay. Serena serve and big ground strokes would be blunted by the surface. Also, the one thing working in Barty's favor is she's an athlete who can play tennis. This gives her a puncher's chance against Serena or the other all time greats.

I don't think anyone here is saying Ash wouldn't beat Serena sometimes, but she wouldn't beat her most of the time. Just like no one else did.

 

[PilotPete]

You're not paying attention or deliberately being obtuse. What I said is that no version of Barty beats a peak Serena. None of what you said changes that.

You said none of that changes ANYTHING you said. Part of anything you said was that they played in 2021. This is incorrect.

 

[MiamiWeekendWarrior]

You said none of that changes ANYTHING you said. Part of anything you said was that they played in 2021. This is incorrect.

The fact that they didn't play in 2021 does not change anything. The salient point here is that any version of Barty would not beat a peak Serena.

 

[Krish872007]

I don't follow the womens game much, but Ash Barty seems to be dominating it right now. She is crushing all her competition in the Australian Open, not even dropping a set so far.

I am curious to know if she would beat peak Serena on all surfaces. Or if she's just dominating a weak womens era right now and she's not actually that good.

I think we could have left it here to be honest...
Serena's serve at its best was huge and would cause enough problems for starters. To be fair Barty does have a great slice (which no one on the tour seems to be able to deal with properly), her main hope would be to avoid getting into a hitting contest and hope Serena is off her game

 

[PilotPete]

The fact that they didn't play in 2021 does not change anything. The salient point here is that any version of Barty would not beat a peak Serena.

It changes what you wrote. What you wrote is part of 'anything'.