Would djokovic have beaten zverev if fit in AO 2025

[nolefam_2024]

Djokovic is AO GOAT. He had beaten Carlos Alcaraz in QF. But he got injured in Alcaraz Match.

While Djokovic zverev set 1 was competitive , it was very clear to see Djokovic was bailing out of most rallies.

Based on how ao finals went and yesterday match, do you think Djokovic was favored to win if fit or not?

Ps: I know if if if doesn't exist. Just looking for your opinions.

 

[Hood_Man]

I believe so. He still has a great serve and great hands (and mind), it was his leg injury that let him down.

 

[Kralingen]

I guess if we assume he’s just 100% fully fit he would’ve probably won.

but imo he would have struggled physically in the sun as the match went on (similar to the SF from the previous year). It’s definitely possible that Z could’ve won regardless if we say Novak’s hamstring was only a “minor” issue rather than a major one.

 

[Daniel Andrade]

Yes, and loses to Sinner in a tighter match.

 

[StrongRule]

For Djokovic being injured somehow means playing better than ever. So a fit Djokovic probably goes down in straight sets without any tiebreaks.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I guess if we assume he’s just 100% fully fit he would’ve probably won.

but imo he would have struggled physically in the sun as the match went on (similar to the SF from the previous year). It’s definitely possible that Z could’ve won regardless if we say Novak’s hamstring was only a “minor” issue rather than a major one.

Yes. I think this is kind of like the match they had in Cincinnati. It was pretty close 2 sets. And zverev was playing relatively well, great serve percentage.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Yes, and loses to Sinner in a tighter match.

Sinner is totally different animal but Djokovic never made to the final.

 

[helterskelter]

Yes, and loses to Sinner in a tighter match.

I don't think he'd have done much better against Sinner than Zverev did. Perhaps switch sets one and two - e.g. he'd have started better but Sinner would have pulled away after getting the lead.

Even though the AO has always been Djokovic's favorite event, at his age, I think he has more chance against Sinner at RG or WI, just because Sinner's yet to prove himself on clay or grass.

 

[Berrettini_Fan]

Yes but then he would've lost to Sinner in the Finals, making his H2H worse there. So in the long run, it was better he retired vs Zvererev.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I don't think he'd have done much better against Sinner than Zverev did. Perhaps switch sets one and two - e.g. he'd have started better but Sinner would have pulled away after getting the lead.

Even though the AO has always been Djokovic's favorite event, at his age, I think he has more chance against Sinner at RG or WI, just because Sinner's yet to prove himself on clay or grass.

I agree that nole has better chances at wimby than AO vs sinner but don't agree about rg.
AO is his home.

 

[helterskelter]

I agree that nole has better chances at wimby than AO vs sinner but don't agree about rg.
AO is his home.

So how do you think a Sinner/Djokovic AO final would have gone? I see it as similar to the Zverev one: 3-0 with one tight set. Maybe something like 7-6 6-3 6-4. AO is becoming Sinner's home now, but he's still got to prove himself on clay (or on grass). Djokovic by contrast is a great player at all slams, so I think his comparative advantage against Sinner is now WI + RG, where Sinner is weaker.

BTW, my response to your op was the third option: I think a Zverev/Djokovic SF would have been very close had Djokovic been able to maintain his fitness.

 

[nolefam_2024]

So how do you think a Sinner/Djokovic AO final would have gone? I see it as similar to the Zverev one: 3-0 with one tight set. Maybe something like 7-6 6-3 6-4. AO is becoming Sinner's home now, but he's still got to prove himself on clay (or on grass). Djokovic by contrast is a great player at all slams, so I think his comparative advantage against Sinner is now WI + RG, where Sinner is weaker.

BTW, my response to your op was the third option: I think a Zverev/Djokovic SF would have been very close had Djokovic been able to maintain his fitness.

This is tricky because I didn't feel Djokovic was playing near his best at start of the year. Not sure if this is Murray effect or the fact that he lost so badly to opelka. Remember he struggled vs faria and basavareddy.



I think this year nole was not ready to win AO. While in rg , he is looking far better. People have just ignored that he easily went to semis losing just 1 set. And even that set he could have won.


So this year sinner would have won I think in 4/5 sets at AO. Djokovic wouldn't lose 3-0 no. he is not that bad yet and sinner is not that good. Unless it's like 7-6 7-6 7-5 or something then ok.

 

[tudwell]

Trick question. If he hadn't gotten injured, he wouldn't have won the quarterfinal and there would have been no match with Zverev.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Trick question. If he hadn't gotten injured, he wouldn't have won the quarterfinal and there would have been no match with Zverev.

That is giving Carlos too much credit though. He has not done well vs Djokovic at hard courts. 0-3

 

[tudwell]

That is giving Carlos too much credit though. He has not done well vs Djokovic at hard courts. 0-3

I'm mostly joking lol. I mean, I think the Djokovic injury threw Carlos off and he played too conservatively for a while and let Djokovic coast along until he started feeling a bit better. (If I remember correctly, Alcaraz had one forehand unforced error in the second set. One. And it wasn't because he was redlining, it was because he was doing nothing with the forehand, just keeping it in play and expecting a hampered Novak to eventually hit the error.) The injury also made Djokovic more aggressive and seemed to give him the eagle eye he needed to start timing the ball impeccably. Maybe that would have come anyway, but I think feeling backed into a corner by the leg issue helped him zone in because he knew there was no other possible way he would win the match. He may still have won if healthy but it also probably would have looked rather different, especially that second set when Carlos got way too timid.

 

[messiahrobins]

Djokovic is AO GOAT. He had beaten Carlos Alcaraz in QF. But he got injured in Alcaraz Match.

While Djokovic zverev set 1 was competitive , it was very clear to see Djokovic was bailing out of most rallies.

Based on how ao finals went and yesterday match, do you think Djokovic was favored to win if fit or not?

Ps: I know if if if doesn't exist. Just looking for your opinions.

Thats true, except when it comes to Zverev and choking. There are no ifs. There only when's

 

[FlyingSaucer]

Trick question. If he hadn't gotten injured, he wouldn't have won the quarterfinal and there would have been no match with Zverev.

LOLLLLLLL

 

[gamelovergold]

Yes but then he would've lost to Sinner in the Finals, making his H2H worse there. So in the long run, it was better he retired vs Zvererev.

I believe nowdays novak think less of H2H data.

 

[darthrafa]

no chance at all. the weather condition pose hugh problem on his type-1 diabetes condition, let alone that djoker was fresh at the season beginning and z being zchoker

 

[jm1980]

I believe nowdays novak think less of H2H data.

If Novak cared about the H2H, he would have avoided Nadal on clay