Would Federer have had >50% chance against Nadal in USOs 2010,2011

Suppose, in a alternative universe, Federer beat Djokovic in the semis in 2010/2011. Would he have had a >50% chance of beating Rafa? Given his mental demons against Rafa were not vanquished until 2015, I think not. He had been too badly scarred from W2008 and AO2009.

Welcome your insights. Thank you.
 

Tennisfan339

Professional
FedererDjokovic's match in 2011 was much much better than 2010, it's like comparing apples and oranges. In 2010 only the 2nd half of the 5th set was good quality, the rest of the match was very forgettable. Federer vultured the 1set and 3rd set 7-5 but it was a very bad day for him overall. Djokovic was far from his best level for 80% of the match. In 2011 I thought the entire match was more than decent (from both), except maybe the 4th set. Much better quality from the beginning. Still not as good as the French Open that year, but close.
Also, Nadal Uso2010 > Uso2011. In 2010 I don't think anyone could've touched him. Djokovic played a much better match in final but only grabbed 1 set...

So, I'd say 2010 Federer had 5% chance.
2011 it would have been closer to 50-50. (jmo)
 
FedererDjokovic's match in 2011 was much much better than 2010, it's like comparing apples and oranges. In 2010 only the 2nd half of the 5th set was good quality, the rest of the match was very forgettable. Federer vultured the 1set and 3rd set 7-5 but it was a very bad day for him overall. Djokovic was far from his best level for 80% of the match. In 2011 I thought the entire match was more than decent (from both), except maybe the 4th set. Much better quality from the beginning. Still not as good as the French Open that year, but close.
Also, Nadal Uso2010 > Uso2011. In 2010 I don't think anyone could've touched him. Djokovic played a much better match in final but only grabbed 1 set...

So, I'd say 2010 Federer had 5% chance.
2011 it would have been closer to 50-50. (jmo)
Exactly my thoughts. Thank you
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Yeah, 2010 Nadal was high level combined with Fed not being great and his mental/matchup issues then and you get a near guaranteed loss. 5-15%. 2011 I'd favor Federer actually. The matchup/mental would still be against him, but I think it'd be a 50-60% chance for Fed to win given what I saw then in terms of level.
 

wang07

Semi-Pro
2011 Federer is really, really underrated. The raw level of play was there, most of the important matches he lost that year were results of mental lapses in crucial points and choking from winning positions. He was even going toe to toe with Nadal in the RG final for 3 grueling sets - yet lost 2 of them because Rafa was mentally stronger.

Nadal on the other hand was significantly worse than the year before - his serve was nowhere near that level, it was relatively easy to attack, and he just seemed totally hopeless against Djoker for 2 sets, then barely snatched a set and checked out. Nothing remarkable. I think Fed could've attacked Rafa just as well as Djoker, if not better, so Rafa still would've had the same issues, the court was fast enough for Fed to close out most of the points. So I think going into that match, Federer would've been the slight favourite, now whether he could've clutched it in the important moments - that's another question and we will never find out.

2010 Final would be Nadal in straights, not much to say there.
 

ForehandCross

G.O.A.T.
No chance for Federer in 2010. Gets straight setted.

In my eyes favorite in 2011.He was actually pushing Nadal around on clay very easily in their RG F, should have been 2-1 up even. He was also in control of first 1 and half hour of their 2012 AO match.

There's no reason that if his BH held up fine in RG and at Madrid, and next year's AO, it won't hold here.

Coupled with the fact that serve is a bigger factor at USO then AO and Nadal served abysmally in the final, with Federer doing well on serve against Djokovic in SF, Federer should take it.
 

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
FedererDjokovic's match in 2011 was much much better than 2010, it's like comparing apples and oranges. In 2010 only the 2nd half of the 5th set was good quality, the rest of the match was very forgettable. Federer vultured the 1set and 3rd set 7-5 but it was a very bad day for him overall. Djokovic was far from his best level for 80% of the match. In 2011 I thought the entire match was more than decent (from both), except maybe the 4th set. Much better quality from the beginning. Still not as good as the French Open that year, but close.
Also, Nadal Uso2010 > Uso2011. In 2010 I don't think anyone could've touched him. Djokovic played a much better match in final but only grabbed 1 set...

So, I'd say 2010 Federer had 5% chance.
2011 it would have been closer to 50-50. (jmo)

100% agreed. No way 2010 Federer was going to beat best version of hard court-dal.
 

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
No chance for Federer in 2010. Gets straight setted.

In my eyes favorite in 2011.He was actually pushing Nadal around on clay very easily in their RG F, should have been 2-1 up even. He was also in control of first 1 and half hour of their 2012 AO match.

There's no reason that if his BH held up fine in RG and at Madrid, and next year's AO, it won't hold here.

Coupled with the fact that serve is a bigger factor at USO then AO and Nadal served abysmally in the final, with Federer doing well on serve against Djokovic in SF, Federer should take it.

I think it was going to be mental Battle for Federer to win 2011 match. Nadal didn't go down easily to even Djokovic despite latter being in his head in 2011 season. Federer might've choked/came short on crucial points if Nadal pushed him hard. Just few months later Nadal defeated him AO SF where IMO Federer played even better.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
No chance for Federer in 2010. Gets straight setted.

In my eyes favorite in 2011.He was actually pushing Nadal around on clay very easily in their RG F, should have been 2-1 up even. He was also in control of first 1 and half hour of their 2012 AO match.

There's no reason that if his BH held up fine in RG and at Madrid, and next year's AO, it won't hold here.

Coupled with the fact that serve is a bigger factor at USO then AO and Nadal served abysmally in the final, with Federer doing well on serve against Djokovic in SF, Federer should take it.

only one disagreement. It probably goes 4 sets in USO 2010 final.
Given djoko took a set off USO 2010 final Nadal, with fed having MPs vs djoko, fed wouldn't get straight-setted.
 

T007

Hall of Fame
Suppose, in a alternative universe, Federer beat Djokovic in the semis in 2010/2011. Would he have had a >50% chance of beating Rafa? Given his mental demons against Rafa were not vanquished until 2015, I think not. He had been too badly scarred from W2008 and AO2009.

Welcome your insights. Thank you.
Both 2008 wimb and 09 AO were closely fought matches...At least he could have won 1 specially the 2011 one where Nadals serve wasn't that good compared to his 2010 one.
 

SonnyT

Legend
Nope, Federer had trouble with young Nadal's defensive speed back then. Nadal retrieved so many balls, would force Federer to hit 2 or 3 winners just to win a point. Federer invariably would become discouraged, and lose the match.

Back then, Djokovic had the same problems with Nadal, as Federer. Just watch their 2 seminal matches of '11 USO and '12 AO, and you see what I mean. But Djokovic is made of sterner stuff than Federer. He had the attitude: if you want to chase some balls, I'll make you chase some more balls. Of course a major difference was that Federer has always been more error-prone than Djokovic.
 
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Sunny014

Legend
No chance for Federer in 2010. Gets straight setted.

In my eyes favorite in 2011.He was actually pushing Nadal around on clay very easily in their RG F, should have been 2-1 up even. He was also in control of first 1 and half hour of their 2012 AO match.

There's no reason that if his BH held up fine in RG and at Madrid, and next year's AO, it won't hold here.

Coupled with the fact that serve is a bigger factor at USO then AO and Nadal served abysmally in the final, with Federer doing well on serve against Djokovic in SF, Federer should take it.

Straight sets in 2010 is too much, it would have gone 4 or maybe even 5 sets but yes Nadal would win it for sure, that was his year.

2011 - Federer
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
I'm a Fed fan and gave him almost no chance in 2010 or 2011 in a presumptive final against Nadal. In retrospect, I still agree. Rafa owned him mentally at that time and it wouldn't matter if Nadal was off his game, Fed would have found a way to choke.
 
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Deleted member 629564

Guest
2010 Nadal, 2011 Nadal: F=0 N+1 D-1, GS race: N21-F20-D19
2010 Nadal, 2011 Federer: F+1 N=0 D-1, GS race: F21-N20-D19
2010 Federer, 2011 Nadal: F+1 N=0 D-1, GS race: F21-N20-D19
2010 Federer, 2011 Federer: F+2 N-1 D-1, GS race: F22-N19-D19

Fedal lost the slam race at Flushing Meadows 10 years ago with Federer hands.
 

Sunny014

Legend
2010 Nadal, 2011 Nadal: F=0 N+1 D-1, GS race: N21-F20-D19
2010 Nadal, 2011 Federer: F+1 N=0 D-1, GS race: F21-N20-D19
2010 Federer, 2011 Nadal: F+1 N=0 D-1, GS race: F21-N20-D19
2010 Federer, 2011 Federer: F+2 N-1 D-1, GS race: F22-N19-D19

Fedal lost the slam race at Flushing Meadows 10 years ago with Federer hands.

What does this mean?? You mean to say Federer tanked Rafa's chances by losing to Novak?
 

Sunny014

Legend
Federer lost the slams race because of his wimbledon defeats, he should have held on to Grass firmly like Rafa held on to clay firmly, Federer's 12 finals converted to 8 wins, those should have been 11-12 wins for for him.

HCs he could not have won everything, Novak would have triumped in 2010s for sure as Fed's time was over on HCs as the number 1 player, Novak had arrived..... Maybe not wining USO for 12+years also was a blunder, should have stolen a USO or 2 in this duration since Murray and Stan also won them...

But Grass he could still have held on tightly, he threw it away via bad play.
 

Rosstour

G.O.A.T.
I think everyone is right. 2010 no. 2011 absolutely. 2010 Rafa obviously won the whole thing, but if 2011 Rafa wasn't good enough to beat Djok, and Fed was...no reason he couldn't have won.
 

nolefam_2024

G.O.A.T.
Any version of Federer is losing to Rafa before Rafa lost his speed. In AO 2014, Federer received a drubbing. It's not a issue of Fed being better or worse. Rafa had huge matchup advantage.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Any version of Federer is losing to Rafa before Rafa lost his speed. In AO 2014, Federer received a drubbing. It's not a issue of Fed being better or worse. Rafa had huge matchup advantage.
Let's not forget that after that 2014 AO match, Roger has only lost once to Nadal (at RG when Roger was almost 38), and has compiled a 7-1 record against Nadal since AO 2014. It's not that Rafa lost all his speed, it's because Fed finally solved his mental demons against his greatest rival.

Any version of Federer is losing to Rafa before Rafa lost his speed.

Hmm.... Fed beat Nadal 11 times prior to 2014 when Nadal's speed was still other-wordly. So "any version" of Federer didn't lose constantly to Nadal even when Rafa had his wheels.
 

brc444

Rookie
Not sure the mentally owned theory would apply to the USO in 2010, 2011 or earlier years. Fed may have had the necessary confidence from his 2004 through 2009 USO success (5 slams and a finalist). Remember, Fed mentally seemed like he was able to differentiate between surfaces and tournaments when it came to his H2H with Nadal. For example, Fed started 2-0 at Wim and 4-0 on indoor hard against Nadal despite a bad over all H2H, especially on clay.
 

MrFlip

Professional
If Federer somehow managed to avoid the backhand

2011 Nadal would have beaten Federer. Nadal 2011 obviously turned into mental midget when playing Djokovic that year.

Give Nadal the win in 4
 

The Blond Blur

G.O.A.T.
RAFA wins in straights in 2010 and a tough 4 setter in 2011. Just because Ol’ Rog had Joker on the ropes doesn’t mean he’d be favored against RAFA. While Joker was a mental block for RAFA in 2011 the exact opposite was true against Ol’ Rog. The matchup disadvantage and mental scares would have too much of an effect.
 
D

Deleted member 748597

Guest
RAFA wins in straights in 2010 and a tough 4 setter in 2011. Just because Ol’ Rog had Joker on the ropes doesn’t mean he’d be favored against RAFA. While Joker was a mental block for RAFA in 2011 the exact opposite was true against Ol’ Rog. The matchup disadvantage and mental scares would have too much of an effect.
You seem to forget that peak to peak debate is like video game.
 
Thanks for your replies.

The reason I think Fed has slim chance is because he did not beat Rafa in a GS for almost 10 years (2007W --> 2017AO). And he received a drubbing at Rafa's hands in AO 2012/2014 and a closely contested loss in RG2011. There were more losses in Master's 1000 tourneys especially in 2013.


Indeed as Fed says, the only reason he was able to reverse the match up somewhat is that he did not play Rafa much between 2014-2016. And this helped him relax more and not over-think while playing Rafa in 2017. Tennis is such a confidence game. Given the numerous losses, I think it is pretty obvious Fed had slim (non existent) chances playing Rafa in USO 2010/2011.
 
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FedrMatt

Professional
I think Nadal owned Fed mentally and the matchup on hard courts at the time so would have still won the 2011 one. It might have went 5 sets but would take Rafa to still win.

Nah I don’t think so. 2010 would’ve been 4 sets to Nadal.

At the end of 2011, Fed was in this ruthless mood (that I can’t explain). If he beat Novak in the semi, he 100% would’ve won the final just based off pure momentum. Fed should’ve at least been up 2-1 in the FO final of that year. The USO is not clay and, in 2011, played very differently (I.e. faster) to what it does now. Adv Fed, likely in 4.
 

nolefam_2024

G.O.A.T.
I think federer rarely has > 50% chance vs Nadal anywhere. Except grass. Even USOpen Nadal would be the favorite.

Fed can play his best vs Nadal but the matchup issue will be hard to solve. Federer solved it post 2016 but Nadal was a little bit slow by then.
 

fedfan24

Hall of Fame
Edge to Federer in 2011. Quicker court than 2012 AO which was a match he outplayed Nadal for large parts of.
 

nolefam_2024

G.O.A.T.
Supposedly AO sandpaper and USO was average speed.
Yes but uts shows they were about the same. And Nadal has been known to struggle in AO low bounce. Even then in a night match he beat Federer in 4. What will happen on USOpen with wind and high bounce ?
 

fedfan24

Hall of Fame
Yes but uts shows they were about the same. And Nadal has been known to struggle in AO low bounce. Even then in a night match he beat Federer in 4. What will happen on USOpen with wind and high bounce ?
AO balls sit up, easy for Nadal to tee off passing shots all day. Fed was largely the better more proactive player that match but couldn’t break Nadal down. USO balls fly off court quicker, better conditions for winners. 2012 was as slow as it gets for hc at slams. USO never been that bad i dont think.
 

SonnyT

Legend
2010-11 sat smack in the middle of the Federer domination by Nadal. Remember the Nadal wins over Federer at AO in '12 and '14, the latter one in straights.
 
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