UnderratedSlam
G.O.A.T.
Predicting the winner is impossible. Even at the QF stage it might be very difficult. Always a crap-shoot, at least in recent years.
However, I can tell you which players have no chance, which have very small chances, and which belong to that "narrower" circle of favourites.
Based on recent results, mental strength, past results and other things.
Sweetek - Has a pretty decent draw. Should reach R4 comfortably, where she might face Pinko or Annie Simova, which she might or might not survive. But she won't win the title. She's been confused and sub-par lately, and she complained about the USO balls used by women. She basically hates them.
Counterfight - The posh Estonian has an easy beginning, but in R3 Tomljanovic will defeat her. Anyway, she's been a failure at slams, and her recent form has been average. 100% won't win the title.
Alexandrovna - coming back from an injury, she's struggling to find form. 100% no chance.
Jabba the Ons aka Jabberwocky - Her R2 opponent might defeat her, and if not, then R4 or QF is her limit. She's been average this HC Summer, and is generally anyway too pressured to win a slam, which is not a good thing. After Wimbledon, expectations will be high - and on the WTA tour we know that means the results will be low... 100% she will not win this.
Gauff - should reach R4 where Halep might be waiting. Then Garcia or Haddadoper in QF. So I don't expect a slam title from her at this USO. Not impossible but chance is 15%.
Haddad - fingers crossed she loses to Garcia in R3. If not, she gets Halep or Gauff in QF. Chances of winning are solid, she can do it. Top 10 favourites.
Andreeeescu - Loses in R2 to Haddad. She doesn't practice very much - is my impression. The rest of her career will be nothing until she steps it up. Zero chance.
Garcia - Good chance of winning. One of the top 5 favourites. Leading acer this year, Garciabot has variety, confidence and experience.
Bencic - her best slam by far, so she could perhaps reach R4 or QF, her absolute maximum though. However Pliskova or Bouzkova can beat her in R3. Zero chance of winning title.
Badosa - a good draw, should reach R4 or QF, but I definitely don't expect her to win it. She just isn't good enough. Very low odds, nearly zero.
Pegula - at her age having just one title... No chance. She can get very far, SF for example, but she would have to beat Pera in R4. Zero chance.
Pera - One of the top 3 favourites. She can definitely win this. Chances are high she wins this. Fingers crossed she doesn't, she is so boring...
Q Zheng - she's not good enough yet, will win a slam in a few years. Zero chance.
Ostapinko - has a very tough draw, almost every step of the way. Her bombing style won't work in 7 matches in a row. Zero chance.
Raducanu - getting the giant-killing Cornet in R1 is unlucky, and she might lose that one. If not, Osaka in R3 could beat her. Zero chance.
Shabalenka - very unpredictable, but the draw allows for a SF. Eventually she'll win a slam title, but when, nobody knows. I have no clue.
Annie Simova - Very up and down, inconsistent, no plan B, recent form is average. Zero chance.
Potapova - highly motivated, a fighter, but zero chance.
Kvitova - lost her last 3 big finals, she is no longer clutch, hasn't won a slam in 8 years. Zero chance.
Pliskova - she will never win a slam, so zero chance. Her draw is quite tough, in every round, so likely she loses by R3.
Halep - USO is her weakest slam, so I doubt it. Places too much pressure on herself. She won Cincy but nevertheless low odds.
Sakkari - will never win a slam, no chance. If she survives R1 and R2, R4 is a given but there she will definitely lose to Haddad or Garcia.
Kasatkina - is a pusher, limited ceiling, very low chances. Will have a tough R3 vs Kuder, but if she wins it could reach QF or even SF.
Osaka - has an easy draw, could reach R4, if she beats Shabalenka could go all the way. I doubt it, but it's possible. Has a decent chance.
Tomlja - will reach R4 where she faces a tough opponent Samsonova. If she beats her a SF is not impossible. She has zero chances for the title though because aged 29 never won a title.
Samsonova - is in great form, can reach QF or SF, but a title is very doubtful. Low odds.
Fernandez - back from an injury, her form is not good. Will lose early, probably R2 to Samsonova. Zero chance.
Serena - predictably she was handed a doable R1, but will lose R2 at the very latest, to Counterfight. Zero chance.
Krejcikova - R3 at the very most, likely even earlier. Zero chance.
Kuder - if she beats Kazakh Tina in R3 she might reach QF, but that's the limit. Almost zero chance.
Rybakina - will lose R3 to Shabalenka, or R4 at the latest. Zero chance.
Stephens - 5 years ago she won USO, she won't win another one slam, zero chance.
Keys - tough draw, R2 or R3. Zero chance.
Collins - might lose R1 to Osaka, hasn't played in a while, won't go far, zero chance.
Muguruza - will lose early, bad form the entire year, zero chance.
Teichmann - never will win a slam, so no chance. If she survives a tough R1 then she might lose in R3 to Halep.
Cornet - R3 or R4. Zero chance.
I'll be adding more names later, for example qualifiers, until Monday. Some qualifiers can win this potentially. After that, I'm not editing this intro anymore.
However, I can tell you which players have no chance, which have very small chances, and which belong to that "narrower" circle of favourites.
Based on recent results, mental strength, past results and other things.
Sweetek - Has a pretty decent draw. Should reach R4 comfortably, where she might face Pinko or Annie Simova, which she might or might not survive. But she won't win the title. She's been confused and sub-par lately, and she complained about the USO balls used by women. She basically hates them.
Counterfight - The posh Estonian has an easy beginning, but in R3 Tomljanovic will defeat her. Anyway, she's been a failure at slams, and her recent form has been average. 100% won't win the title.
Alexandrovna - coming back from an injury, she's struggling to find form. 100% no chance.
Jabba the Ons aka Jabberwocky - Her R2 opponent might defeat her, and if not, then R4 or QF is her limit. She's been average this HC Summer, and is generally anyway too pressured to win a slam, which is not a good thing. After Wimbledon, expectations will be high - and on the WTA tour we know that means the results will be low... 100% she will not win this.
Gauff - should reach R4 where Halep might be waiting. Then Garcia or Haddadoper in QF. So I don't expect a slam title from her at this USO. Not impossible but chance is 15%.
Haddad - fingers crossed she loses to Garcia in R3. If not, she gets Halep or Gauff in QF. Chances of winning are solid, she can do it. Top 10 favourites.
Andreeeescu - Loses in R2 to Haddad. She doesn't practice very much - is my impression. The rest of her career will be nothing until she steps it up. Zero chance.
Garcia - Good chance of winning. One of the top 5 favourites. Leading acer this year, Garciabot has variety, confidence and experience.
Bencic - her best slam by far, so she could perhaps reach R4 or QF, her absolute maximum though. However Pliskova or Bouzkova can beat her in R3. Zero chance of winning title.
Badosa - a good draw, should reach R4 or QF, but I definitely don't expect her to win it. She just isn't good enough. Very low odds, nearly zero.
Pegula - at her age having just one title... No chance. She can get very far, SF for example, but she would have to beat Pera in R4. Zero chance.
Pera - One of the top 3 favourites. She can definitely win this. Chances are high she wins this. Fingers crossed she doesn't, she is so boring...
Q Zheng - she's not good enough yet, will win a slam in a few years. Zero chance.
Ostapinko - has a very tough draw, almost every step of the way. Her bombing style won't work in 7 matches in a row. Zero chance.
Raducanu - getting the giant-killing Cornet in R1 is unlucky, and she might lose that one. If not, Osaka in R3 could beat her. Zero chance.
Shabalenka - very unpredictable, but the draw allows for a SF. Eventually she'll win a slam title, but when, nobody knows. I have no clue.
Annie Simova - Very up and down, inconsistent, no plan B, recent form is average. Zero chance.
Potapova - highly motivated, a fighter, but zero chance.
Kvitova - lost her last 3 big finals, she is no longer clutch, hasn't won a slam in 8 years. Zero chance.
Pliskova - she will never win a slam, so zero chance. Her draw is quite tough, in every round, so likely she loses by R3.
Halep - USO is her weakest slam, so I doubt it. Places too much pressure on herself. She won Cincy but nevertheless low odds.
Sakkari - will never win a slam, no chance. If she survives R1 and R2, R4 is a given but there she will definitely lose to Haddad or Garcia.
Kasatkina - is a pusher, limited ceiling, very low chances. Will have a tough R3 vs Kuder, but if she wins it could reach QF or even SF.
Osaka - has an easy draw, could reach R4, if she beats Shabalenka could go all the way. I doubt it, but it's possible. Has a decent chance.
Tomlja - will reach R4 where she faces a tough opponent Samsonova. If she beats her a SF is not impossible. She has zero chances for the title though because aged 29 never won a title.
Samsonova - is in great form, can reach QF or SF, but a title is very doubtful. Low odds.
Fernandez - back from an injury, her form is not good. Will lose early, probably R2 to Samsonova. Zero chance.
Serena - predictably she was handed a doable R1, but will lose R2 at the very latest, to Counterfight. Zero chance.
Krejcikova - R3 at the very most, likely even earlier. Zero chance.
Kuder - if she beats Kazakh Tina in R3 she might reach QF, but that's the limit. Almost zero chance.
Rybakina - will lose R3 to Shabalenka, or R4 at the latest. Zero chance.
Stephens - 5 years ago she won USO, she won't win another one slam, zero chance.
Keys - tough draw, R2 or R3. Zero chance.
Collins - might lose R1 to Osaka, hasn't played in a while, won't go far, zero chance.
Muguruza - will lose early, bad form the entire year, zero chance.
Teichmann - never will win a slam, so no chance. If she survives a tough R1 then she might lose in R3 to Halep.
Cornet - R3 or R4. Zero chance.
I'll be adding more names later, for example qualifiers, until Monday. Some qualifiers can win this potentially. After that, I'm not editing this intro anymore.
