WTF groups are set. It's clear that Rafa's chances at YE1 are now very low.

What will happen?

  • Medvedevious wins title then boasts he will be no 1 by FO

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    64

Sport

Legend
Wow he bet an ancient Injured Federer once in 2013 in Federer’s worst year on the tour. Federer beat the living hell out of him in 2011 when Nadal was at his absolute peak.
Excuse #3 detected.

The Big 15 excuses to justify Federer's losses:

1. Mono
2. Bad back
3. Age
4. Racquet model
5. Movement
6. Matchup issue
7. Wind
8. Conditions
9. Medical timeout
10. Djokodal ended blue clay
11. No Masters 1000 on grass
12. Beatiful style
13. Winning RG only cements your Clay GOAT status
14. Mentality problems
15. Djokovic pusher, Federer shot-making magician

Not Wimbledon. You can't have the slam of the year where a pusher who wins less points wins the slam over a talented shotmaker like Roger.
 
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Keizer

Professional
Wow he bet an ancient Injured Federer once in 2013 in Federer’s worst year on the tour. Federer beat the living hell out of him in 2011 when Nadal was at his absolute peak.
Rafa is one of the best indoor players in the world.
Rafa beat Federer in straight sets at 2013 World Tour Finals, and Rafa beat Djokovic in straight sets at 2010 World Tour Finals.
Rafa beat Wawrinka in straight sets at 2013 and 2015 World Tour Finals, and Rafa beat Murray at 2010 and 2015 World Tour Finals.
But, Medvedev matches up better with Djokovic and will probably be the reason why Rafa finishes #1 :)
He's, what, 0-15 against Fed and Djoker since 2014 on non-clay? He's the underdog against either of them in this tournament. Like PeoplesChamp said, Montreal means nothing since the only people he's not favored against here didn't play there.
 

topher

Professional
What did he discover since September about Rafa which gave him the knowledge to beat him? He was annihilated in Canada against him and didn't get it down at the USO either.
He discovered the optimal Rafa tactic: play him indoors. 31% of the time, it works every time.

Well, you are discounting the young gen.
Consider if Medvedev beats Nadal in straights at WTF. Suddenly Rafa has a Fedovic type issue with Medvedev too. Because honestly the Russian dominated the 2nd half of the match at the UsOpen and a potential WTF victory would put the balance in his favor for the future. And I believe Medvedev will challenge the big 3 in all hardcourt slams next year - so he's bound to be a formidable foe.

Also Nadal has good records against the nextgen as he has beaten them at slams and big tournaments. But what if Rafa loses to Zverev/TsiTsiPas? I would have laughed to think that those players would be favored against Nadal. But this is LITERALLY the tournament and the surface where Nadal plays his WORST tennis. Look at his WTF record for the past 12 years. IF there is one place where these guys would have chances against Rafa, it is the London O2.
So any loss to these guys will also impact Nadal's confidence for next year.

All in all, it would have been just best for Nadal to skip the WTF. Especially because he is not 100% and not playing his best. That way he could meet all these players on more favorable ground IMO. Nothing good will come out for Nadal in this tournament for sure.
I agree those things are possible (giving NextGen confidence) and that this is his toughest part of the season, but you overstate your case when you say that it is "for sure". Rafa, if his abdomen behaves, will have his chances to win matches in the RR, despite the surface. And if he wins 2-3 and makes the semis, you never know, he could secure YE #1 just by making it there.

Its a risk, but so is any tournament he plays. And I don't think its optimal to pack it up and only play the slams plus clay season. Rafa and his team understand the risk better than we do and think its worth playing.
 

timnz

Legend
Djokovic
Federer
Thiem
Berrettini (hi, tennis_pro)

Nadal
Medvedevious
Tsetsefly
Zverev

This basically means that Djokovic and RF are in the semis already. That much is clear.

This means Rafa loses the semis - if he even gets there. His off-clay record vs Novak and RF has been pathetic since 2013/14. That certainly won't change at Rafa's weakest part of the season...

Since Djokovic is favourite to win WTF, he is very likely to be YE1.

As far as group duels, I believe we can all agree that we're VERY looking forward to:

Nadal - Medvedevious --- I believe the Russian now knows how to beat Rafa, and he has very good chances at doing it. By beating Nadal he will only strengthen his claim to break the Big 3 oligopoly.

Tsetsefly - Medvedevious --- Will 0-5 go to 0-6? Will Tsetse flip his lid again and "accuse" Medvedevious of being Russian (despite Tsetse's mother being Russian)? Will they hate each other even more after this match? To me, this is the most fun group match, from all 12 group matches.

Other interesting matches.

Federer - Thiem --- A chance for RF to decrease the 2-4 H2H lead Thiem has. He'll do it, of course.

Federer - Berrettini --- If RF loses a set to the Italian, will tennis_pro quit TTW? Very exciting.

Djokovic - Federer --- this match will happen twice, group stage and the finale. Or will Medvedevious act as Big 3 crusher and defeat another Big 3 legend after beating Rafa in the group stage?

Finally a WTF when the Big 3 are not the only favourites for the title.

And a question to the ATP:

WHY does the schedule not include Tuesday onwards?

Surely this being a group event they can easily write a schedule up until Friday?
I have analysed the points. Basically Djokovic has to win in the semis or Nadal is YE. number 1 - even if Nadal wins zero matches (in that scenario nadal will finish with 40 more points for the year if Djokovic loses the semis
 

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
I think that an injured Nadal won't survive the Round Robin. I hope that I'm wrong. I'd like to see him in the semis. But he's hurting now and I believe that he'll be careful. Federer hasn't done well at the WTF since 2015. Last year, he laid an egg against Nishikori with his straight-set loss. In the semis, Zverev put Fed away in straight sets. The year before, Goffin beat Fed. Fed's not going to do well here, which is expected.

I'd say that Djoker has a 50% chance of winning,. Medvedev is next at 25%, followed by Tsistipas at 15%. Only Berrettini has worse odds than Federer of winning the WTF. I'd put Federer at 1% and Berrettini at 0.99%,
 

James P

Hall of Fame
For me, Medvedev's storyline is quite interesting. It's quite probable that he has to go through all three of the Big 3 to win the title, and while he can theoretically lose to Nadal, I think it would dog him mentally in the SF/F stage.
 

jm1980

G.O.A.T.
And a question to the ATP:

WHY does the schedule not include Tuesday onwards?

Surely this being a group event they can easily write a schedule up until Friday?
The schedule is pretty straightforward: the winners of the first matches play each other in the second match (obviously the losers play each other as well). Then you play the third match against the guy you haven't played yet.

This ensures you never go into the third day of matches with two guys 0-2 playing each other (and thus already eliminated from contention)
 

oldmanfan

Hall of Fame
I think it's not so cut and dry that YE#1 is on Djokr's racquet. I think it's on Fedalovic's racquets. Nadl can do well if he's close to 100% (as he's proven all year against the youngsters), making it harder for Djokr's YE#1 chances. Fedr could beat Djokr (Djokr won their last 2 matches by taking 5/5 TBs, so it can't get much closer). And Medv can beat any of Fedalovic based on his form post WB19. Fedaledevic are close, imo, so YE#1 is a toss up.

The obvious is that these are top8, so anyone will have their chances.

This promises to be a good WTF!
 

BeatlesFan

Talk Tennis Guru
Nadal was at his absolute peak in WTF 2011? Seek help.
He won a slam and reached the final of two others and ended the year ranked at #2. Most importantly, he was 25 years old. 2011 wasn't Nadal's peak tennis season, but physically he was near peak. I personally think 2008-2010 is peak Nadal physically, but that fact he was playing 2011 WTF shows he was physically at a very high level. He often skips it due to "fatigue" or "injury."
 

UnderratedSlam

Hall of Fame
I have analysed the points. Basically Djokovic has to win in the semis or Nadal is YE. number 1 - even if Nadal wins zero matches (in that scenario nadal will finish with 40 more points for the year if Djokovic loses the semis
I believe Novak has never lost the semis at WTF... Or?
 

Raphael Nadal

Professional
Rafa only needs to make the SF, because Djokovic ain't winning the ATP Finals :)
2018 = Zverev def. Djokovic
2017 = Dimitrov def. Goffin
2016 = Murray def. Djokovic
 

Raphael Nadal

Professional
And Djokovic was psyched out by the young guns last year, losing to Khachanov 75 64 Paris Final, and losing to Zverev 64 63 London Final :)
 

TripleATeam

Legend
Rafa only needs to make the SF, because Djokovic ain't winning the ATP Finals :)
2018 = Zverev def. Djokovic
2017 = Dimitrov def. Goffin
2016 = Murray def. Djokovic
"Djokovic ain't winning the US Open :)
2012 = Murray def. Djokovic
2013 = Nadal def. Djokovic
2014 = Cilic def. Nishikori
"
 
The schedule is pretty straightforward: the winners of the first matches play each other in the second match (obviously the losers play each other as well). Then you play the third match against the guy you haven't played yet.

This ensures you never go into the third day of matches with two guys 0-2 playing each other (and thus already eliminated from contention)
This is right, @UnderratedSlam. Now, I happen to agree with you that they ought to set the full schedule in advance and be willing to have the third day have two guys who are both at 0-2. Back in the day, they used to schedule it usually so that the top two in the group would play third.

But the explanation of how the schedule works that @jm1980 gives is exactly how the schedule does in fact work right now and for the last decade or more.
 
Yeah I would bet on Djokovic. He will be motivated, especially having not won this event for a few years now. And Nadal historically doesn't do well here.
 

MeatTornado

Legend
He’s hitting it pretty hard for someone who allegedly literally tore an abdominal muscle a few days ago.
Well he played through a complete tear at the USO ten years ago. So it's not like it's impossible. He might be able to play through it, it'll just hurt like hell.
 

Raphael Nadal

Professional
He’s hitting it pretty hard for someone who allegedly literally tore an abdominal muscle a few days ago.
By "literally tore" you mean "fantasy", right?
In reality-
Dr. Cotorro: "When there's a strain, a contracture appears, which is what happened in Paris. The area must be treated locally with anti-inflammatories, deep thermotherapy with Indiba, which works well, as well as all the manual and adaptation work....."
:)
 

LETitBE

Hall of Fame
Well he played through a complete tear at the USO ten years ago. So it's not like it's impossible. He might be able to play through it, it'll just hurt like hell.
i really enjoy the humble warrior playing when injured,he shows no signs of pain at all during points.

this bloke would call an ambulance for a papercut
 
Excuse #3 detected.

The Big 15 excuses to justify Federer's losses:

1. Mono
2. Bad back
3. Age
4. Racquet model
5. Movement
6. Matchup issue
7. Wind
8. Conditions
9. Medical timeout
10. Djokodal ended blue clay
11. No Masters 1000 on grass
12. Beatiful style
13. Winning RG only cements your Clay GOAT status
14. Mentality problems
15. Djokovic pusher, Federer shot-making magician
Best post in this thread :alien: :alien:
 

Tennisfan339

New User
Djokovic and Federer are clearly favorites. I can see Djokovic winning the RR match and then losing in final.
Thiem and Berretini, I already eliminate them too. Thiem always had catastrophic results in London, so beating Federer or Djokovic would be a big surprise.
As much as I like Zverev and he impressed me last year, I don't see him doing it again. His opening match againt Nadal will be a key. If he wins, he may have a chance to go to SF.
Tsitsipas for some reason, I don't believe he can perform. He seemed exhausted in Basel and Paris
Nadal and Medvedev clearly favorites of this group.

Here is my top-8 predictions...
1) Federer
2) Djokovic
3) Medvedev
4) Nadal
5) Zverev
6) Tsitsipas
7) Berretini
8) Thiem.
 

BorgTheGOAT

Professional
Th
He has all the Next Gens in his group. With the exception of Medvedev, the others will bend over for him.

He could have got someone like Fed in his group, so things could have been worse.
this. I don’t get why sine people here pretend as if he had a deadly group. While Federer and Djokovic have to deal with each other, Nadal has his next gen pigeons. I know Med has improved a lot, but still he has never beaten Rafa and even if he looses he should still beat the other two. If I was a Nadal fan I would be way more worried if he and Federer switched groups.
 
I think that an injured Nadal won't survive the Round Robin. I hope that I'm wrong. I'd like to see him in the semis. But he's hurting now and I believe that he'll be careful. Federer hasn't done well at the WTF since 2015. Last year, he laid an egg against Nishikori with his straight-set loss. In the semis, Zverev put Fed away in straight sets. The year before, Goffin beat Fed. Fed's not going to do well here, which is expected.

I'd say that Djoker has a 50% chance of winning,. Medvedev is next at 25%, followed by Tsistipas at 15%. Only Berrettini has worse odds than Federer of winning the WTF. I'd put Federer at 1% and Berrettini at 0.99%,
This is hilarious
 

TheGhostOfAgassi

Talk Tennis Guru
He made the prediction as the race was heating up, and then started using this as his avatar:



When he inevitably fell on his face, he started backtracking and claiming it was only what he hoped would happen.
Lol
So you know who posters are from other forums and compare to in here?
how much time do you spend on forums?
and why it is so important to you what posters said elsewhere, if this is true at all? Some prediction long time ago?
 
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