TropicalFruit
Rookie
I've been playing a few more rated matches recently, and since the USTA site has WTN posted for almost everyone, I'm trying to use that to gauge my progress. The only problem is... the rating is nonsense.
Now, I would understand the noisy rating were a player to have played only a few matches. Whenever it says "low confidence" or "medium confidence," and the results don't line up at all, I give them a pass. The issue, though, is that even "high confidence" seems extremely far from the player's actual level. The match results never line up.
I have many, many examples from recent matches, but I'll give the most egregious one here. My last tournament had two players:
Player 1 - WTN 18.51 (high confidence, at least 20 matches played in the last month)
Player 2 - WTN 20.9 (also high confidence, also at least 20 matches)
They played and... the 20.9 won 6-2 6-0. This should correspond, roughly, to a UTR 8.3 beating a UTR 9.3 by 6-2 6-0, which is nearly mathematically impossible if they've played enough matches to have real ratings (and no one got injured or anything).
Player 1 (18.51) is 5.0 self rated, player 2 (20.9) is 5.0 computer rated. Player 1 has crushed many, many 4.0 level players, and has played a few close matches (7-5, 6-4) against solid 4.5s - guys in the WTN 25 range. Meanwhile, the 5.0c player is having a strong season playing nothing but Men's 5.0.
It doesn't end there, though. So many of us in this recent round robin had WTNs between 27-29 and yet there were bagels, 6-1s, and 6-2s all over the place; far more than competitive sets. I'd play one guy at WTN 28 and crush him 6-1, and then another guy at WTN 28 and get crushed 6-2. Sure, I played a little better in one of those matches, but the second guy was CLEARLY a far superior player - it felt pretty similar to when I've played other WTN 25s.
I will give one caveat about the 18.51 vs the 20.9 - the 18.51 is the best version of a pusher you can have, an MEP style player. So while it's not surprising that 5.0 players with the right game can beat him 6-2 6-0, I also wouldn't be surprised if he can routinely beat 5.0 players that haven't practiced the right things. It's also not surprising that he routinely crushes 4.0s and 4.5s, but could get into a tight match against a 4.5 with the right game. It is possible that the egregious result is due to the unique matchup, rather than the rating just being bunk.
What have you guys experienced with WTN? Is it as noisy as it seems, or did I just get a few confusing results in a row, but overall it's actaully fine?
Now, I would understand the noisy rating were a player to have played only a few matches. Whenever it says "low confidence" or "medium confidence," and the results don't line up at all, I give them a pass. The issue, though, is that even "high confidence" seems extremely far from the player's actual level. The match results never line up.
I have many, many examples from recent matches, but I'll give the most egregious one here. My last tournament had two players:
Player 1 - WTN 18.51 (high confidence, at least 20 matches played in the last month)
Player 2 - WTN 20.9 (also high confidence, also at least 20 matches)
They played and... the 20.9 won 6-2 6-0. This should correspond, roughly, to a UTR 8.3 beating a UTR 9.3 by 6-2 6-0, which is nearly mathematically impossible if they've played enough matches to have real ratings (and no one got injured or anything).
Player 1 (18.51) is 5.0 self rated, player 2 (20.9) is 5.0 computer rated. Player 1 has crushed many, many 4.0 level players, and has played a few close matches (7-5, 6-4) against solid 4.5s - guys in the WTN 25 range. Meanwhile, the 5.0c player is having a strong season playing nothing but Men's 5.0.
It doesn't end there, though. So many of us in this recent round robin had WTNs between 27-29 and yet there were bagels, 6-1s, and 6-2s all over the place; far more than competitive sets. I'd play one guy at WTN 28 and crush him 6-1, and then another guy at WTN 28 and get crushed 6-2. Sure, I played a little better in one of those matches, but the second guy was CLEARLY a far superior player - it felt pretty similar to when I've played other WTN 25s.
I will give one caveat about the 18.51 vs the 20.9 - the 18.51 is the best version of a pusher you can have, an MEP style player. So while it's not surprising that 5.0 players with the right game can beat him 6-2 6-0, I also wouldn't be surprised if he can routinely beat 5.0 players that haven't practiced the right things. It's also not surprising that he routinely crushes 4.0s and 4.5s, but could get into a tight match against a 4.5 with the right game. It is possible that the egregious result is due to the unique matchup, rather than the rating just being bunk.
What have you guys experienced with WTN? Is it as noisy as it seems, or did I just get a few confusing results in a row, but overall it's actaully fine?