Year-End #1 Article

[marc45]

by BrainGame

https://www.braingametennis.com/rafael-nadal-pole-position-for-year-end-no-1/

Rafael Nadal. Pole Position for year-end No. 1
Is 2017 Rafa’s year… already?

The stats are overwhelmingly in his favor.

Firstly, let’s understand the two separate rankings in men’s tennis.

1. Singles Ranking (best 18 tournament results from past 52 weeks).
2. Emirates ATP Race To London: year-end No. 1 (only 2017 results).

What we are focused on here is the second one – the year-end No. 1, which is only about 2017. It’s an extremely converted award for the best player of each season.

Rafa has been year-end No. 1 three times:

1. 2008
2. 2010
3. 2013
4. 2017?

One of the key elements of our game that I am always focused on is the dynamic of getting ahead – playing from in front. The more you get out in front in our sport, the more you tend to stay there.

This applies with making a first serve, instead of missing it. It also has the same impact going up 15-0 in a game, rather than down 0-15. Same thing goes for winning the first set of a match. Nobody in the history of our sport has a winning record after dropping the first set of their match. Nobody.

The ATP website just put out some fascinating data that supports the “getting ahead” dynamic – in the race to year-end No. 1.

Consider this:

For the past 13 seasons (2004-2016), the year-end No. 1 player has either been ranked No. 1 or No. 2 after Roland Garros.

WOW!

The No. 3 player in the world, Dominic Thiem, is much more “rank outsider” than “contender”.

We are right around the mid point of the season, with two Grand Slam events and four Masters 1000 still to come – not to mention eight ATP 500’s, and the end of season Nitto ATP World Tour Finals (1500 points).

There seems to be so much tennis ahead of us, but history suggests that the goose may already be cooked.

Following are the rankings AFTER Roland Garros for the past 13 seasons. The eventual year-end No. 1 is in bold.

2017

1. Rafael Nadal – 6,915 points
2. Roger Federer – 4,045 points

2016

1. Novak Djokovic – 7,950 points
2. Andy Murray – 4,725 points

2015

1. Novak Djokovic – 7,585 points
2. Andy Murray – 4,440 points

2014

1. Rafael Nadal – 6,465 points
2. Novak Djokovic – 5,250 points

2013

1. Rafael Nadal – 7,000 points
2. Novak Djokovic – 5,030 points

2012

1. Rafael Nadal – 6,750 points
2. Novak Djokovic – 6,120 points

2011

1. Novak Djokovic – 7,695 points
2. Rafael Nadal – 6,390 points

2010

1. Rafael Nadal – 6,300 points
2. Roger Federer – 3,285 points

2009

1. Rafael Nadal – 6885 points
2. Roger Federer – 5,460 points

2008

1. Rafael Nadal – 710 points
2. Novak Djokovic 611 points

2007

1. Rafael Nadal – 886 pojnts
2. Roger Federer – 801 points

2006

1. Roger Federer – 772 points
2. Rafael Nadal – 584 points

2005

1. Roger Federer – 710 points
2. Rafael Nadal – 665 points

2004

1. Roger Federer – 546 points
2. Guillermo Coria – 449 points

Here’s the breakdown of being ranked No. 1 or No. 2 after Roland Garros, and going on to being the No. 1 player at the end of the year.

• No. 1 after Roland Garros = No. 1 year-end EIGHT times.
• No. 2 after Roland Garros = No. 1 year-end FIVE times.

Nadal has been ranked in the top two after Roland Garros in an astounding 11 of the past 14 seasons.

Will Rafa finish No. 1? It’s an intriguing thought that the 31-year-old Spaniard is poised to return back to the pinnacle of our sport. Click here to read the ATP analysis.

 

[ojo rojo]

Who can stop him

 

[ultradr]

The best player usually end a year as #1.
Only issues from 2004 or so are
1. Importance of Masters increased.
2. Relative % of total points for slams decreased.

Murray was an example of these issues last year.
It happened more often in WTA but are usually rare in ATP.
Along with baseline game on slow surfaces,
this is one of things that WTA-rized since 2004 or so.

 

[MichaelNadal]

If he can not implode and stay healthy it's looking like it. But you never know, Fed has been known to go on a killing spree the last 2 months of the season, so nothing is set in stone.

 

[clayqueen]

2014

1. Rafael Nadal – 6,465 points (Didn't play a full season. Injury)
2. Novak Djokovic – 5,250 points

2013

1. Rafael Nadal – 7,000 points - Year end #1
2. Novak Djokovic – 5,030 points

2012

1. Rafael Nadal – 6,750 points (Didn't play a full season. Injury)
2. Novak Djokovic – 6,120 points

2010

1. Rafael Nadal – 6,300 points - Year end #1
2. Roger Federer – 3,285 points

2009

1. Rafael Nadal – 6885 points (Didn't play a full season. Injury)
2. Roger Federer – 5,460 points

Without being sidelined with injury in 2009, 2012 & 2014 Rafa would most likely have ended those years as #1.

 

[MasturB]

Good for Rafa. You can't count his second half vacation breaks against Roger.

Not his fault his game of grind didn't allow him to stay healthy while Fed played an easier game on his body.

As a Fed die hard I'd be happy if Rafa got #1 over Fed. If Rafa falls off in second half I expect Fed to put up a fight for it especially if he goes SF/F the last two majors plus he's playing Cinncy and other tourneys to rack up points he's not defending.

 

[clayqueen]

I just hope Rafa stays fit and injury free for the rest of the year.

 

[Paul Harman]

I think Nadal probably will get the top slot, however that article had little to no analysis to say either way.

Brain Game Tennis is the world leader researching and teaching strategy in tennis.

 

[Phoenix1983]

Nadal shall, unbelievably, finish the year as world No 1 for the 4th time - all of them non-consecutive (2008, 2010, 2013, 2017).

What a successful, yet bizarre career.

 

[clayqueen]

Nadal shall, unbelievably, finish the year as world No 1 for the 4th time - all of them non-consecutive (2008, 2010, 2013, 2017).

What a successful, yet bizarre career.

Punctuated by injury.