Year-end Ratings WILL BE HIGHER

Hey "Island Tennis," (j/k with the "I have a fan," but thanks for your support)!

I didn't want to get into it between the two of you, but it was obvious your information was coming from a reliable source and then you were doing some fun extrapolation of what it would be like if National followed the same percentage at Viz's section. We had our disagreement of the 5 vs. 6, but other than that your info has seemed to be spot on including the timing on when you started the post.

Not that you needed me to defend you, but I do think that it is important that the board discern solid information from simple beliefs. Especially when those beliefs are stated as "FACT" from someone expressing their gut feeling.
 
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catfish

Professional
I didn't think Javier was attacking 10sguy. I thought he was making a general statement about people speculating and presenting their speculations as facts. It happens all the time in the USTA league tennis community. I was a local coordinator for quite some time, and I used to get really irritated by captains and players not looking at facts, but instead they'd go by "what John Doe told them". 10sguy seems to know what he's talking about, and he may be a Sectional Coordinator or some other person who is involved in ratings. So I believe what he is saying. And I have heard my sectional coordinator talk about tweaks to the NTRP rating calculations each year. The system evolves and improves all the time.
 

JavierLW

Hall of Fame
If I'm not mistaken, there are multibillion dollar industries built around the fact that people DO do this all the time. Isn't this what is done on all the daily/weekly/yearly (including pre-season) sports shows and in the newspapers, not to mention among the betting crowd in Vegas? Apparently people enjoy speculating on sports. Why are you so combative?
Because you're making arguments that are not very well thought out.

Making football picks is not the same thing as stating that something is fact. Everyone who makes football picks for a living understands that it's really just a estimation of what happens, it's not like fortune telling or anything...
 

JavierLW

Hall of Fame
Not that you needed me to defend you, but I do think that it is important that the board discern solid information from simple beliefs. Especially when those beliefs are stated as "FACT" from someone expressing their gut feeling.
I would agree with this statement.

However since you cant even mention who you supposably received this information from, and you're basing you whole acknowledgement of 10sguy on the basis of "I believe he's talked to someone who knows what they are talking about", then you obviously cant say that you know the difference between FACT and someone just expressing their gut feeling either.

As far as his "predictions" he hasnt said anything that someone who was reading the rule changes on usta.com (2010 rule changes have been on there for months now) wouldnt of already known, it's just that everyone doesnt happen to browse the site so they depend on meetings for that.

The only one that may seem like new news is the new rule that you will not get an appeal granted if you played 6 or more matches. That was out there a few months ago (at least in the appeal section), but they apparently decided not to publish it so they are not mentioning it. (it's part of the formula on whether you'll win your appeal or not so they need not publish it)

They also took out the part where they explain how you will win if it's within .05, so it's probably just an attempt to hide more info from us. (which could help keep people from trying to doctor the system)
 
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Because you're making arguments that are not very well thought out.

Making football picks is not the same thing as stating that something is fact. Everyone who makes football picks for a living understands that it's really just a estimation of what happens, it's not like fortune telling or anything...

here's what the OP said: "there is an expectation of an overall "bump up" of most player's NRTP's in an attempt to more closely match player ratings to NTRP descriptions."

he said "expectation" not "fact."

Lighten up.
 

JavierLW

Hall of Fame
here's what the OP said: "there is an expectation of an overall "bump up" of most player's NRTP's in an attempt to more closely match player ratings to NTRP descriptions."

he said "expectation" not "fact."

Lighten up.
Yes, that's the funny thing about it, he even admits himself that it's a guess or an expectation. (yet he's warning us all about it, "word to the wise")

But some of you have to feel you're going to come in to say somehow he knows what he's talking about.

It's not like a sports prediction at all.

You need to lighten up.
 

sunshinez

New User
What are your thoughts of raising many players ratings. With 1 match to go in a mixed double season, 4 out of 5 men are going to get bumped up on our team. Do you think that USTA should have made it known that it was their plan to re-align the ratings levels as some were bumped down in early ratings?:
 
Javier,

Let us know what you find out from you District coordinator. If you do not bother to contact them, you will see what 10sguy has been telling you is accurate within a few months. That is with the possible extrapolation of one league's numbers to the whole nation's, and he didn't imply that would be accurate or that he had inside information that it was.

No need to pollute this thread any further.

Have a good tennis season.
 

fe6250

Semi-Pro
What are your thoughts of raising many players ratings. With 1 match to go in a mixed double season, 4 out of 5 men are going to get bumped up on our team. Do you think that USTA should have made it known that it was their plan to re-align the ratings levels as some were bumped down in early ratings?:
Remember that year-end ratings bumps don't go into effect until January even though they are published now. It shouldn't impact current league play in most cases.
 

amarone

Semi-Pro
Remember that year-end ratings bumps don't go into effect until January even though they are published now. It shouldn't impact current league play in most cases.
If there is a general move up in the year-end ratings, it gives a significant advantage to teams playing in Early Start Leagues. These teams were able to put a roster together using pre-bump-up players, and will be allowed to keep those players (other than dynamic DQs, which don't affect most players) through Championship play.
 

sunshinez

New User
early start ratings are only good in our section until 10 days after the year end ratings come out. At that point you must use the year end ratings. This is a change from last year.
 

amarone

Semi-Pro
Here is what it means for the distribution of players across the levels:

Code:
		Previous			New	
2.5	 19,352 	6.2%		 12,193 	3.9%
3.0	 82,803 	26.6%		 56,262 	18.1%
3.5	 121,270 	38.9%		 119,856 	38.5%
4.0	 66,717 	21.4%		 91,596 	29.4%
4.5	 18,605 	6.0%		 27,942 	9.0%
5.0	 2,698 		0.9%		 3,546 		1.1%
5.5	 143 		0.05%		 192 		0.06%
Total	 311,588 			 311,587
So the number of 3.5s stay the same but 3.0 decreases significantly and 4.0 increases significantly, in numeric terms. There are 50% more 4.5s than previously.
 

J011yroger

Talk Tennis Guru
How do we know it's a "he"? ;-)
Hmmmm...I didn't at all consider that the ratings were combined. Gross oversight on my part.

I wonder if the split was even, or if a higher percentage of men or women were bumped and the other left alone.

J
 

Blask

Semi-Pro
holy crap, my whole team got moved. Some deserved, many are not. They appear to weigh heavily on doubles results as well.
 

Matt H.

Professional
My home park has two 4.0 teams and combined we had about a dozen that got bumped to 4.5

I was told 11 of the people on the 3.5 team got bumped to 4.0. Talk about getting your team wiped out mid-season.
 

innoVAShaun

Hall of Fame
As seen on http://tennislink.usta.com/leagues/reports/NTRP/FindRating.asp

USTA League 2009 Year End Ratings
Notice of Important Changes


The year end 2009 NTRP ratings will reflect a nationwide movement in which a higher percentage of players will move upward this year. This reflects the concerns of the National Oversight Group, the Observers (Verifiers), charged with protecting the integrity of our NTRP levels as defined below. It was also the clear consensus of many others including staff, volunteers, team captains and players that the system is in need of adjustment as too many players were above the NTRP level they were playing at. Additionally, the same issue was noted through player concerns raised in survey work. A growing disconnect was seen between the standards used in the Self Rating guidelines and the actual characteristics of players on court at various levels, along with players who had been allowed for many years to appeal their year end ratings downward.

Of the 300,000+ league players nationally, more than 90,000 will be seeing movement in their NTRP rating that should coincide with their appropriate skills. With almost a third of the players seeing movement, please know that if you are in this group, you will not be alone. We recognize that there may be initial concerns and questions, but we believe rating adjustments are necessary to protect the integrity of the NTRP and insure that the vast majority of all league players will have competitive matches.

USTA League 2009 Year End Ratings have been published to TennisLink. Click here to find your rating. If you have any questions or concerns, please contact leagues@usta.com.

The table below shows the movement of players up and down from their previous rating levels. Players will continue to have compatible and competitive matches, although many will now be playing at a different level.

Players will also find that there will be far less ability to appeal NTRP ratings successfully based on current appeal guidelines.

This table shows a broad overview of the movement of players at 2009 year end.

 
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