Yes, Jannik Sinner is really this good! written by Tennisabstract's Jeff Sackmann

Rovesciarete

Rovesciarete

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Please head over to this excellent article, which offers deep insight into this beautiful sport and comes up with a great way to frame Sinner's special serve stats. Do not spoil yourself, I will at first just post the opening nugget:

I wrote in December about what I called the “most exclusive clubs” in tennis. Since 1991, when the ATP began keeping these stats, Andre Agassi and Novak Djokovic have been the only two players to finish a season in the top three of both hold percentage and break percentage. (Agassi did it twice.) Well, in the last 52 weeks, Sinner ranks second in hold percentage behind Hubert Hurkacz, and he stands third in break percentage, trailing only Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz. It’s not a calendar year so we can’t officially add him to the list, but he’s playing as well on both sides of the ball as anyone ever has, apart from two all-time greats.
Click to expand...
Oh, and on hard courts, Sinner out-holds even Hurkacz. He gets broken less than anyone in the game, securing his serve 89.9% of the time.

But wait–it’s even better than that. Alex Gruskin pointed out that since Wimbledon, Sinner’s hold percentage is 91.1%, within shouting distance of John Isner’s career mark of 91.8%. Isner cracked the top ten by combining that monster serve with a return that only a mother could love. Sinner, on the other hand, pairs absolutely dominant serving with one of the best returns in the game. Ever wonder what would happen if Big John had an elite return? Now you know.
Click to expand...
 
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weakera said:
I'm not buying this. I think Djokovic would have trashed him most years. Not seeing "playing as well on both sides of the ball as anyone ever has, apart from two all-time greats." Medvedev was like 4 points away from a straight set win.
Click to expand...

Well you don't have to buy it but you can read it...

The stats don't lie, even if they are a bit inflated compared to Novak. His incredible overperformance at saving break points will go down, but his serve quality should go up over the years so good things will still happen.

I had to laugh a bit when I saw a graph labelled Super-Sinner.
 
Rovesciarete said:
Well you don't have to buy it but you can read it...

The stats don't lie, even if they are a bit inflated compared to Novak. His incredible overperformance at saving break points will go down, but his serve quality should go up over the years so good things will still happen.

I had to laugh a bit when I saw a graph labelled Super-Sinner.
Click to expand...


The stats clearly lie if it is suggesting no one has ever played as well on both sides other than two players. That is laughable.
 
weakera said:
The stats clearly lie if it is suggesting no one has ever played as well on both sides other than two players. That is laughable.
Click to expand...

Just read the article and you should understand. It refers to the last thirty years where we have stats. Only Agassi and Djokovic could combine top 5 performances at both ends during that timeframe.

Sinner is no god but extremely good at both holding and breaking serve and he keeps improving.
 
weakera said:
I'm not buying this. I think Djokovic would have trashed him most years. Not seeing "playing as well on both sides of the ball as anyone ever has, apart from two all-time greats." Medvedev was like 4 points away from a straight set win.
Click to expand...
Sinner is good, man. Believe me when I say this. He's no joke.
His ceiling is disgustingly high because if you look closely he looks nowhere near as "seasoned" as Alcaraz, Rune or Musetti.
Now, what happens when he starts focusing on footwork? On passing shots? On his biggest weapons, namely forehand on the run and backhand down the line?
Jannik Sinner is talented in a very unpretentious way, which is what makes him so special.
 
Rovesciarete said:
Just read the article and you should understand. It refers to the last thirty years where we have stats. Only Agassi and Djokovic could combine top 5 performances at both ends during that timeframe.

Sinner is no god but extremely good at both holding and breaking serve and he keeps improving.
Click to expand...
I read the article a few hours ago (I'm on the Tennis Abstract blog email list), and your second comment sums things up well.
 
Kralingen said:
Yes, when watching Sinner, I am often reminded of watching John Isner.

What a joke of an article. That entire sentence is so purely bald-faced in its stupidity and lack of appreciation for the actual viewing experience of tennis, that I cannot take the rest of it seriously.
Click to expand...
LOL, the only stupidity is yours for failing to read the very next line in the article ("Isner cracked the top ten by combining that monster serve with a return that only a mother could love.")
 
Kralingen said:
Yes, when watching Sinner, I am often reminded of watching John Isner.

What a joke of an article. That entire sentence is so purely bald-faced in its stupidity and lack of appreciation for the actual viewing experience of tennis, that I cannot take the rest of it seriously.
Click to expand...

Sinner is right now holding almost as many service games as Isner. Obviously it is meant to create mental outrage, I had also had a good laugh imaging old Ironman gliding around the court...

I take stats quite seriously but they are not the endpoint.. Thank god the world is not just numbers but you need those too to get a grasp of ours.
 
CHIP72 said:
LOL, the only stupidity is yours for failing to read the very next line in the article ("Isner cracked the top ten by combining that monster serve with a return that only a mother could love.")
Click to expand...
The only place Jannik Sinner's serve and hold game is anywhere comparable to John Isner's is on a spreadsheet.

Which is the entire point I'm making.
 
Dwell said:
Sinner is good, man. Believe me when I say this. He's no joke.
His ceiling is disgustingly high because if you look closely he looks nowhere near as "seasoned" as Alcaraz, Rune or Musetti.
Now, what happens when he starts focusing on footwork? On passing shots? On his biggest weapons, namely forehand on the run and backhand down the line?
Jannik Sinner is talented in a very unpretentious way, which is what makes him so special.
Click to expand...
I think the thing about Sinner, something I didn't fully realize until Sunday, is that he didn't focus solely on tennis until a relatively late age. He also had an undistinguished junior career. Relative to most young tennis players (say 21 years and younger), both in terms of relative experience and playing style, he probably had/has more potential. Sinner may be in the process of truly reaching that potential right now (or has been in that process since mid-2023).
 
Don't have to read an article to know Sinner is that good. He just owned the AO 2024 coming off a solid 2023. Young man is vai'ng against Alcaraz to be that next top guy, with both sharing great popularity and the rivalry. Tennis is doing good just on those two making the next era as Fedal ends.
 
CHIP72 said:
I think the thing about Sinner, something I didn't fully realize until Sunday, is that he didn't focus solely on tennis until a relatively late age. He also had an undistinguished junior career. Relative to most young tennis players (say 21 years and younger), both in terms of relative experience and playing style, he probably had/has more potential. Sinner may be in the process of truly reaching that potential right now (or has been in that process since mid-2023).
Click to expand...

That is one main line of reasoning in the old Sinner thread. We don't know how things will be - thank god life - but it is exciting to think ahead.

I hate the worshipping of heroes and find the analytics more intriguing.
 
Kralingen said:
The only place Jannik Sinner's serve and hold game is anywhere comparable to John Isner's is on a spreadsheet.

Which is the entire point I'm making.
Click to expand...
LOL, you could fooled me with your original comment.

You are aware that nowhere did Jeff Sackmann or anyone else say Sinner's serve is like John Isner's, only that Sinner's effectiveness as a server in recent months hasn't been far off from Big John's very high level in that category, right? I don't think anyone believes Sinner is or will be as effective a server as Isner, but what IS possible is Sinner in the longer term will rank high in both serve hold percentage and serve break percentage (like he has over the last 12 months), a rare combination that makes a player hard to beat, as was the case with Djokovic and Agassi during their best seasons.

One other serious note - if you haven't checked the Tennis Abstract blog previously, I recommend reading the player entries for various players in the "128 Series" (an attempt to rank the top 128 players in the history of tennis, male and female, through the end of 2022). Those articles, for players like Djokovic and Nadal, give useful insights as to why they were such great players for so long.
 
Rovesciarete said:
That is one main line of reasoning in the old Sinner thread. We don't know how things will be - thank god life - but it is exciting to think ahead.

I hate the worshipping of heroes and find the analytics more intriguing.
Click to expand...
I love the worshipping because it spices things up on the forum.
I definitely don't talk like this about Sinner in real life. I'm an engineer, I eat math for breakfast lunch and dinner but when I come to TTW, it's party time.
I find the analytics insightful but when all is said and done, will I remember the crazy storylines and over-the-top threads or the down-to-earth stats?
"Jannik Godzilla" and "Jannik Oppenheimer" or "2023 return of serve stats"?
By the way, this account is on its last breath as I'm reverting to my original Sinner worshipping form. :D
 
CHIP72 said:
I don't think anyone believes Sinner is or will be as effective a server as Isner, but what IS possible is Sinner in the longer term will rank high in both serve hold percentage and serve break percentage (like he has over the last 12 months), a rare combination that makes a player hard to beat, as was the case with Djokovic and Agassi during their best seasons.
Click to expand...

Well stated. Serve points won % and so forth are the outcome of something. Holding flows largely from service points won but their quality matters too. Sinner has been saving an extreme amount of pressure points relative to the history of the tour. Indeed of the best ways to understand elite tennis is to compare players with each other and tour averages.

spw-hh.png


Hubert Hurkacz holds serve more than anybody. He makes hay early while losing some later. Keep in mind that short rallies are much more common than longer ones, so the early point haul is much bigger than it seems. Let us now insert Sinner's data since 2021:

spw-js.png


As expected from an elite baseliner his margins over the tour increases the longer the game goes on but crucially, as Jeff points out, he never dips below average from the start. Let us look now at the cheekily named Super-Sinner since the start of 2023:



spw-js-super.png


I will let just Jeff speak:

At the beginning of the point, Sinner is almost equal to Hurkacz. From then on, he takes over. A surprising gap comes early, at the two-plus rally mark, indicating that he doesn’t make many mistakes with his plus-one shot, even if he doesn’t put away an overwhelming number of them. No matter how long the point continues, the Italian outperforms tour average for that particular situation.

In tennis, it’s almost impossible to be good at everything. You can put together a nice, quite lucrative career by merely getting close to average in most categories and having one or two standout weapons. Sinner, we’re beginning to see, is not just good at everything, he is verging on great.
Click to expand...

As I'm very familiar with the data this doesn't surprise me as much as others. I was possibly the first to point out the key variable in writing, at least here.

I found it fascinating that Jannik talked that he enjoyed playing the pressure points, that he loves to dance in the storm of pressure and that the data shows he is possibly the best at exactly that.
 
CHIP72 said:
I think the thing about Sinner, something I didn't fully realize until Sunday, is that he didn't focus solely on tennis until a relatively late age. He also had an undistinguished junior career. Relative to most young tennis players (say 21 years and younger), both in terms of relative experience and playing style, he probably had/has more potential. Sinner may be in the process of truly reaching that potential right now (or has been in that process since mid-2023).
Click to expand...
He took a break from Tennis between ages 7 and 8. Apart from that, he has had more or less the same trajectory as anyone else his age. In fact his turning pro at 14 is earlier than even other phenoms such as Alcaraz turned pro.

But it's true that all that immense work he's put in to complement his astounding talent has begun to come to fruition. Hail the peak Sinner who waltzes in front of us.
 
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At any rate, it's clear that the increase in effectiveness in Sinner's serve game is what has elevated him from top 10 to top player. He already was a top returner.

Now start the fun times when players will try to find chinks in his armor. People will start paying attention to what strategies give him trouble, and will try to implement them to the best of their ability.
 
aldeayeah said:
At any rate, it's clear that the increase in effectiveness in Sinner's serve is what has elevated him from prospect to top player. He already was a top returner.

Now start the fun times when players will try to find chinks in his armor. People will start paying attention to what strategies give him trouble, and will try to implement them to the best of their ability.
Click to expand...

As he said himself. I expect more of a nuanced game with some counter-punching, a shift towards Novak's ability to morph.
 
Sinner won fewer receiving points than his opponent in both the Rublev and Medvedev matches. Against Khachanov he won only 37-30. Djokovic was completely MIA. Medvedev was 5 points from victory and up 2-0.


Really not understanding the attempts to make this seem like it was a dominant slam win.
 
I noticed in the YEC final, that Sinner got much better into the match, when he began to serve wide to Djokers forehand. He lost in the end, but it showed a way to play Nole. As Sackmann writes, those serve-forehand combination with emphasis on the third point seems to be crucial. Sinner gets many points with a serve wide, and then follow up with the the sharp forehand. This gives him the instant winner or at least lets him dictate the further point. Federer did this serve-forehand combo indeed to great effect, especially on grass. On clay, it will to be seen, if he can produce more topspin, to clear the net, when the rallies are longer. He still looks rather thin in his legs and arms. I will to be seen, if his body can tolerate the effort of staying on top, which is more difficult than reaching the top..
 
Basically, it's nice and all, reflecting that Sinner has been looking quite good against a variety of opponents, but against the highest level he's recently faced - which is Djokovic in the YEC final and Medvedev in the first two sets of the AO final - he looked completely lost and out if it. So all of Sinner's recent success does nothing to dispel the idea that if his opponent plays well enough (and it doesn't have to be peak big 3 level), he's toast. Until that changes, the weak era mug label continues to apply.
 
Sinner's game is quite good on both wings. He is able to return and hold with equal prowess. Feels so Djokovic in the making. A longer limbed version of him - who will get more balls in and probably in his prime will win a lot.

What's yet to be tested - is Mental strength. Too early to talk about it. Every champion had to face the fact that he was the one who was being chased. So far Sinner wasn't chased. If numbers stack up and he become world #1 too - a lot will change. Players will develop specific strategies to play against him.

Let's see how he finds solutions to that. But for now - it all looks good and a future ATG in the making
 
urban said:
I noticed in the YEC final, that Sinner got much better into the match, when he began to serve wide to Djokers forehand. He lost in the end, but it showed a way to play Nole. As Sackmann writes, those serve-forehand combination with emphasis on the third point seems to be crucial. Sinner gets many points with a serve wide, and then follow up with the the sharp forehand. This gives him the instant winner or at least lets him dictate the further point. Federer did this serve-forehand combo indeed to great effect, especially on grass. On clay, it will to be seen, if he can produce more topspin, to clear the net, when the rallies are longer. He still looks rather thin in his legs and arms. I will to be seen, if his body can tolerate the effort of staying on top, which is more difficult than reaching the top..
Click to expand...

He has now a more serve variety, better disguise and hits the spots better - exactly as I hope three years ago. His second serve is also much improved and he was always winning more rallies than not.

Thinking about it this Super-Sinner will drop some but with a considerably better serve, improved bh slice and the most efficient net attacks he might do better in Wimby than in the last years where he only lost to a guy who had dominated that surface for years.
 
Off the top of my head, since ‘91, an 89/28 sgw/rgw split over a 52 week span has been matched or bested by Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Agassi and Sampras, numerous times for the first three. I believe Federer averaged 90/30 over a four year span.
 
Just a little updated before Indian Wells numbers are coming in, and there are some of the most dominant ones you will see. Of course they will come down to earth but very impressive indeed:


TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
[x] Time Span: 2024; Level...
13-0 (100%)​
2-1 (67%)​
8.2%​
61.6%​
78.0%​
58.2%​
94.2%​
70.4%​
30.9%​
40.8%​
55.4%​
1.38​
Last 52
61-11 (85%)​
15-13 (54%)​
8.3%​
60.1%​
76.2%​
56.3%​
88.7%​
68.3%​
29.2%​
40.6%​
54.0%​
1.28​
Hard
45-5 (90%)​
11-8 (58%)​
8.7%​
61.1%​
76.6%​
55.5%​
90.0%​
68.4%​
28.6%​
39.9%​
53.9%​
1.26​
Clay
8-3 (73%)​
3-3 (50%)​
3.6%​
58.0%​
71.1%​
57.0%​
80.9%​
65.2%​
37.9%​
44.8%​
54.7%​
1.29​
Grass
8-3 (73%)​
1-2 (33%)​
11.7%​
57.9%​
80.0%​
58.8%​
90.6%​
71.1%​
23.5%​
39.3%​
53.7%​
1.36​
Grand Slams
16-3 (84%)​
3-4 (43%)​
9.4%​
57.9%​
77.6%​
58.7%​
91.1%​
69.6%​
29.8%​
41.1%​
54.7%​
1.35​
vs Top 10
14-4 (78%)​
7-5 (58%)​
8.8%​
62.0%​
74.4%​
53.8%​
87.7%​
66.6%​
19.9%​
36.1%​
51.6%​
1.08​
vs Righties
57-10 (85%)​
14-12 (54%)​
8.2%​
59.8%​
76.1%​
56.3%​
88.7%​
68.1%​
28.5%​
40.3%​
53.9%​
1.27​
vs Lefties
4-1 (80%)​
1-1 (50%)​
10.2%​
64.6%​
78.3%​
56.2%​
87.9%​
70.5%​
39.0%​
44.1%​
56.1%​
1.49​
Best of 3
45-8 (85%)​
12-9 (57%)​
7.8%​
61.2%​
75.6%​
55.0%​
87.4%​
67.6%​
28.9%​
40.3%​
53.7%​
1.24​
Best of 5
16-3 (84%)​
3-4 (43%)​
9.4%​
57.9%​
77.6%​
58.7%​
91.1%​
69.6%​
29.8%​
41.1%​
54.7%​
1.35​
show yearly totalshide splits

94.2 hold percentage is obviously absurd, especially if combined with a break percentage of 30.9...
 
Rovesciarete said:
Just a little updated before Indian Wells numbers are coming in, and there are some of the most dominant ones you will see. Of course they will come down to earth but very impressive indeed:


TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
[x] Time Span: 2024; Level...
13-0 (100%)​
2-1 (67%)​
8.2%​
61.6%​
78.0%​
58.2%​
94.2%​
70.4%​
30.9%​
40.8%​
55.4%​
1.38​
Last 52
61-11 (85%)​
15-13 (54%)​
8.3%​
60.1%​
76.2%​
56.3%​
88.7%​
68.3%​
29.2%​
40.6%​
54.0%​
1.28​
Hard
45-5 (90%)​
11-8 (58%)​
8.7%​
61.1%​
76.6%​
55.5%​
90.0%​
68.4%​
28.6%​
39.9%​
53.9%​
1.26​
Clay
8-3 (73%)​
3-3 (50%)​
3.6%​
58.0%​
71.1%​
57.0%​
80.9%​
65.2%​
37.9%​
44.8%​
54.7%​
1.29​
Grass
8-3 (73%)​
1-2 (33%)​
11.7%​
57.9%​
80.0%​
58.8%​
90.6%​
71.1%​
23.5%​
39.3%​
53.7%​
1.36​
Grand Slams
16-3 (84%)​
3-4 (43%)​
9.4%​
57.9%​
77.6%​
58.7%​
91.1%​
69.6%​
29.8%​
41.1%​
54.7%​
1.35​
vs Top 10
14-4 (78%)​
7-5 (58%)​
8.8%​
62.0%​
74.4%​
53.8%​
87.7%​
66.6%​
19.9%​
36.1%​
51.6%​
1.08​
vs Righties
57-10 (85%)​
14-12 (54%)​
8.2%​
59.8%​
76.1%​
56.3%​
88.7%​
68.1%​
28.5%​
40.3%​
53.9%​
1.27​
vs Lefties
4-1 (80%)​
1-1 (50%)​
10.2%​
64.6%​
78.3%​
56.2%​
87.9%​
70.5%​
39.0%​
44.1%​
56.1%​
1.49​
Best of 3
45-8 (85%)​
12-9 (57%)​
7.8%​
61.2%​
75.6%​
55.0%​
87.4%​
67.6%​
28.9%​
40.3%​
53.7%​
1.24​
Best of 5
16-3 (84%)​
3-4 (43%)​
9.4%​
57.9%​
77.6%​
58.7%​
91.1%​
69.6%​
29.8%​
41.1%​
54.7%​
1.35​
show yearly totalshide splits

94.2 hold percentage is obviously absurd, especially if combined with a break percentage of 30.9...
Click to expand...

Son,Thanks for confirming what Sinner fans have always been saying for months!! @CHillTennis see how dominant are his numbers, it's time for you to repent, son!
 
Who the hell wants to engage with the low-IQ posts of the Sinner trolldom, hell-bent on hijacking all sorts of threads anyway?

On topic, @Rovesciarete is a hell of a poster, and his latest post is as usual, beautiful. If the rest of the miserable fandom even had half the class of posters like him do, the forum would be a little less of a trainwreck.

Great times to be a Sinner fan indeed. Congratulations to all OG fans of his.

​

 
Sinner seems to play better and better on break point itself. For example, he’s 6th in SPW % this year but 1st in hld%. He’s down at 9th in break points allowed per game, but 1st in hold %. This is unusual as players who allow this many break points or lose this many serve points (relatively speaking) don’t hold this well. The reason for this success is that he’s #1 in break points saved % at an absurd 83.3%.

Some of this luck as it is with any player and sooner or later, opponents will take these break point opportunities. But a lot of it is Sinner’s play when down BP.

In 2024, Sinner is 1st in hold percentage, sixth in SPW%, 9th in break points allowed per game.

In 2023, Djoko was 1st in hold percentage, first in SPW% and third in break points allowed per game.

In 2022, Hurk was 1st in hold percentage, second in SPW% and 1st in break points allowed per game.
 
weakera said:
I'm not buying this. I think Djokovic would have trashed him most years. Not seeing "playing as well on both sides of the ball as anyone ever has, apart from two all-time greats." Medvedev was like 4 points away from a straight set win.
Click to expand...
woulda coulda shoulda
 
ghostofMecir said:
Sinner seems to play better and better on break point itself. For example, he’s 6th in SPW % this year but 1st in hld%. He’s down at 9th in break points allowed per game, but 1st in hold %. This is unusual as players who allow this many break points or lose this many serve points (relatively speaking) don’t hold this well. The reason for this success is that he’s #1 in break points saved % at an absurd 83.3%.

Some of this luck as it is with any player and sooner or later, opponents will take these break point opportunities. But a lot of it is Sinner’s play when down BP.

In 2024, Sinner is 1st in hold percentage, sixth in SPW%, 9th in break points allowed per game.

In 2023, Djoko was 1st in hold percentage, first in SPW% and third in break points allowed per game.

In 2022, Hurk was 1st in hold percentage, second in SPW% and 1st in break points allowed per game.
Click to expand...
No way this is sustainable over the long run. Either service points have to catch up or break point numbers will drop. Still, he’s good enough on serve and return to be competing for slams and the number one ranking even without his current absurd break points saved stat.
 
Sinner has mastered the relaxed swing which is helped by his insistence on using rackets a smaller than recommended grip size. This relaxed swing allows maximum acceleration of the racket head , enhanced topspin, and Supreme confine that the shot will stay in. No one is more relaxed swinging the racket than Sinner. Will be # 1 by next year.
 
fecund345 said:
Sinner has mastered the relaxed swing which is helped by his insistence on using rackets a smaller than recommended grip size. This relaxed swing allows maximum acceleration of the racket head , enhanced topspin, and Supreme confine that the shot will stay in. No one is more relaxed swinging the racket than Sinner. Will be # 1 by this year.
Click to expand...
Fixed for you.
:p
 
FeroBango said:
Who the hell wants to engage with the low-IQ posts of the Sinner trolldom, hell-bent on hijacking all sorts of threads anyway?

On topic, @Rovesciarete is a hell of a poster, and his latest post is as usual, beautiful. If the rest of the miserable fandom even had half the class of posters like him do, the forum would be a little less of a trainwreck.

Great times to be a Sinner fan indeed. Congratulations to all OG fans of his.

​

Click to expand...

@Djokovic_is_the_best#1 lol
 
hes a very good player but i would not put his serve in the same league as isners.
isner wins points off his serve. sinner wins points when hes serving.
 
fecund345 said:
Sinner has mastered the relaxed swing which is helped by his insistence on using rackets a smaller than recommended grip size. This relaxed swing allows maximum acceleration of the racket head , enhanced topspin, and Supreme confine that the shot will stay in. No one is more relaxed swinging the racket than Sinner. Will be # 1 by next year.
Click to expand...

what if the other players start using smaller grips and relaxed swings lol
 
TTW and beyond went through a period of delirium after Charlie won his first major as well.


FEDR retired. Vamos on his last legs. Egg will age out in the not too distant future. Tennis is desperate.
 
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Match Stats/Report - Sinner vs Tiafoe, Cincinnati final, 2024
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Match Stats/Report - Medvedev vs Sinner, Miami final, 2023
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