Yes, Jannik Sinner is really this good! written by Tennisabstract's Jeff Sackmann

Sinner is competing against mugs. You have said as much yourself. 2020-present is the worst era of all-time.

Sinner would get trashed if he had to compete in any other decade.

No hard feelings that you are promoting your content, mate, as you are also pushing interesting stat stuff related to Sinner and Tennis.

To get back to basics, the ability of Charlie and Janni to win return points sets them likely apart from the almost all the youngsters in this age of serve dominance.
 
Sinner seems to play better and better on break point itself. For example, he’s 6th in SPW % this year but 1st in hld%. He’s down at 9th in break points allowed per game, but 1st in hold %. This is unusual as players who allow this many break points or lose this many serve points (relatively speaking) don’t hold this well. The reason for this success is that he’s #1 in break points saved % at an absurd 83.3%.
Some of this luck as it is with any player and sooner or later, opponents will take these break point opportunities. But a lot of it is Sinner’s play when down BP.

In 2024, Sinner is 1st in hold percentage, sixth in SPW%, 9th in break points allowed per game.

In 2023, Djoko was 1st in hold percentage, first in SPW% and third in break points allowed per game.

In 2022, Hurk was 1st in hold percentage, second in SPW% and 1st in break points allowed per game.

He did it again lol. He’s at like 85% BPs saved
 
I think the thing about Sinner, something I didn't fully realize until Sunday, is that he didn't focus solely on tennis until a relatively late age. He also had an undistinguished junior career. Relative to most young tennis players (say 21 years and younger), both in terms of relative experience and playing style, he probably had/has more potential. Sinner may be in the process of truly reaching that potential right now (or has been in that process since mid-2023).
It does make you think that tennis talent will emerge if given the chance. Sinner is kind of a prodigy that wasn't forced to be. Wawrinka was similar. Rios didn't even play until he was 11
 
Will have more time later but it’s well worth to update this thread where Sackmann pointed out that Sinner was holding serve like Isner while breaking like the very best of the returners. After four tournaments it got even better, brutal stuff.



TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Last 52
65-11 (86%)​
16-12 (57%)​
8.3%​
60.5%​
76.8%​
57.2%​
89.6%​
69.1%​
28.7%​
40.6%​
54.3%​
1.31​
hide yearly totalsshow splits
2024
22-1 (96%)​
3-1 (75%)​
8.3%​
62.2%​
79.0%​
59.6%​
93.8%​
71.7%​
31.0%​
41.4%​
55.9%​
1.46​
2023
64-15 (81%)​
18-13 (58%)​
8.2%​
59.8%​
76.0%​
56.1%​
87.3%​
68.0%​
28.6%​
40.6%​
53.9%​
1.27​
2022
47-16 (75%)​
16-7 (70%)​
7.6%​
58.4%​
74.5%​
53.4%​
83.4%​
65.7%​
26.5%​
39.9%​
52.6%​
1.16​
2021
49-22 (69%)​
22-14 (61%)​
5.9%​
59.9%​
71.1%​
54.4%​
81.0%​
64.4%​
27.0%​
39.9%​
52.0%​
1.12​
2020
20-14 (59%)​
7-6 (54%)​
4.4%​
60.7%​
71.5%​
49.5%​
79.1%​
62.8%​
27.8%​
40.6%​
51.7%​
1.09​
2019
61-23 (73%)​
15-12 (56%)​
7.4%​
57.5%​
72.3%​
52.6%​
78.8%​
63.9%​
30.4%​
41.0%​
52.1%​
1.14​
2018
16-17 (48%)​
5-5 (50%)​
5.3%​
55.6%​
66.3%​
44.7%​
63.1%​
56.7%​
22.9%​
36.1%​
46.8%​
0.83​
Career
279-108 (72%)​
86-58 (60%)​
7.0%​
59.3%​
73.5%​
53.8%​
82.9%​
65.5%​
28.2%​
40.4%​
52.7%​
1.17​
 
Last edited:
He’s likely to finish at 1.38+ DR and 55%+ total points won which is peak big 3 numbers.

Could be possible. He might dominate some lesser players even more on clay while having more trouble with the best. Alcaraz is also on the way to make a huge season, despite his ‘troubles’.
 
So I see a lot of bad analysis towards medvedev bc he’s lost to sinner twice and alcaraz.
Coming into the semi finals and finals : med you can argue was actually playing excellent tennis then get absolutely wiped off the court by sinner.

Then comes dimitrov who took alcaraz to school in dominate fashion and took down a hot zverev in 3 playing amazing tennis at a high level.

Sinner beats these two as if they weren’t top 10 or 5 players. He made it look easy.

This is a level of tennis that might ascend to one of the greats. But I don’t want to put that label on him at this moment while it looks to be promising. I’m enjoying this sheer dominance by such a humble kid. He’s playing tactical tennis at a high level with elite weapons. That’s a dangerous combo.
 
So I see a lot of bad analysis towards medvedev bc he’s lost to sinner twice and alcaraz.
Coming into the semi finals and finals : med you can argue was actually playing excellent tennis then get absolutely wiped off the court by sinner..

Medvedev would be scary with his serve at the 2022 level, he has been breaking at a very impressive clip. Ironically to some extent the same situation Sinner found himself in 2022 and stretches of 2023…
 
Just your post-Master update. Interestingly his SPW% has remained constant while his RPW% has gone down just by the slightest of margins. Hold and break percentages more so, which might have to do with leaving his strongest surface and the adaption process to clay. Obviously without the referee error he would have slightly higher numbers. Overall incredibly impressive.

TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Last 52
63-11 (85%)​
15-13 (54%)​
8.5%​
60.7%​
77.5%​
57.2%​
90.4%​
69.6%​
27.5%​
40.0%​
54.2%​
1.31​
hide yearly totalsshow splits
2024
25-2 (93%)​
3-2 (60%)​
7.7%​
61.3%​
79.6%​
59.2%​
93.4%​
71.7%​
30.6%​
41.3%​
55.9%​
1.46​
2023
64-15 (81%)​
18-13 (58%)​
8.2%​
59.8%​
76.0%​
56.1%​
87.3%​
68.0%​
28.6%​
40.6%​
53.9%​
1.27​
2022
47-16 (75%)​
16-7 (70%)​
7.6%​
58.4%​
74.5%​
53.4%​
83.4%​
65.7%​
26.5%​
39.9%​
52.6%​
1.16​
2021
49-22 (69%)​
22-14 (61%)​
5.9%​
59.9%​
71.1%​
54.4%​
81.0%​
64.4%​
27.0%​
39.9%​
52.0%​
1.12​
2020
20-14 (59%)​
7-6 (54%)​
4.4%​
60.7%​
71.5%​
49.5%​
79.1%​
62.8%​
27.8%​
40.6%​
51.7%​
1.09​
2019
61-23 (73%)​
15-12 (56%)​
7.4%​
57.5%​
72.3%​
52.6%​
78.8%​
63.9%​
30.4%​
41.0%​
52.1%​
1.14​
2018
16-17 (48%)​
5-5 (50%)​
5.3%​
55.6%​
66.3%​
44.7%​
63.1%​
56.7%​
22.9%​
36.1%​
46.8%​
0.83​
Career
282-109 (72%)​
86-59 (59%)​
6.9%​
59.2%​
73.6%​
53.8%​
83.0%​
65.6%​
28.2%​
40.4%​
52.7%​
1.17​
 
So I see a lot of bad analysis towards medvedev bc he’s lost to sinner twice and alcaraz.
Coming into the semi finals and finals : med you can argue was actually playing excellent tennis then get absolutely wiped off the court by sinner.

Then comes dimitrov who took alcaraz to school in dominate fashion and took down a hot zverev in 3 playing amazing tennis at a high level.

Sinner beats these two as if they weren’t top 10 or 5 players. He made it look easy.

This is a level of tennis that might ascend to one of the greats. But I don’t want to put that label on him at this moment while it looks to be promising. I’m enjoying this sheer dominance by such a humble kid. He’s playing tactical tennis at a high level with elite weapons. That’s a dangerous combo.
The easier paths to the semi and final in AO and miami played a part

At least the finals in both events the opponent looked gassed
.but sinner earned his advantage. Very very reserved and passionless panther on the court to contrast with the mildly reserve sampras panther of old
 
The easier paths to the semi and final in AO and miami played a part

At least the finals in both events the opponent looked gassed
.but sinner earned his advantage. Very very reserved and passionless panther on the court to contrast with the mildly reserve sampras panther of old
I mean no doubt the AO final med came in with what 8 hours spent more on court? Didn’t look it up but wasn’t talking AO.

Sinner is just balling right now. One can argue if not for a horrendous call to go up a double break in 3rd set at MC - he’d have a masters on clay right now.
 
I mean no doubt the AO final med came in with what 8 hours spent more on court? Didn’t look it up but wasn’t talking AO.

Sinner is just balling right now. One can argue if not for a horrendous call to go up a double break in 3rd set at MC - he’d have a masters on clay right now.
You can argue but who knows how.ruud would come out against him on the day or the demands of winning a first clay final at that level...
Dont forget the lucky call early on in set 3 against stefanos.. it cuts both ways close or not.
 
You can argue but who knows how.ruud would come out against him on the day or the demands of winning a first clay final at that level...
Dont forget the lucky call early on in set 3 against stefanos.. it cuts both ways close or not.
The officiating to start the clay season even before Monte Carlo has been atrocious.
 
The officiating to start the clay season even before Monte Carlo has been atrocious.
And nothing new..sinner also contrived to lose in indian wells
.if he truly was so strong as you perhaps suggest then a bad game of calls would not matter. He still had the break and stefanos still was a tough opponent who had won the first set quite handily.
 
And nothing new..sinner also contrived to lose in indian wells
.if he truly was so strong as you perhaps suggest then a bad game of calls would not matter. He still had the break and stefanos still was a tough opponent who had won the first set quite handily.
Stefanos has been playing well and he’s healthy. But clay is his best and most comfortable surface too.
Sinner is indeed a strong player. You’re confusing strong with untouchable or unbeatable - which was never said. He literally has 2 losses through 4 months of the year. Pretty darn strong if you ask me.
 
Stefanos has been playing well and he’s healthy. But clay is his best and most comfortable surface too.
Sinner is indeed a strong player. You’re confusing strong with untouchable or unbeatable - which was never said. He literally has 2 losses through 4 months of the year. Pretty darn strong if you ask me.
Im only addressing what you said.
AtG and dominant. Yes sinner is off to the best start this year.. but still a lot can happen. I still see a lock for top 3 season end and probably top 2 though.
 
Im only addressing what you said.
AtG and dominant. Yes sinner is off to the best start this year.. but still a lot can happen. I still see a lock for top 3 season end and probably top 2 though.
Also difference between being an ATG and having ATG potential. At 22 - he’s got the potential to win several slams.
 
Just another update after the clay swing with RG. Dropped only slightly in hold% but breaks more. TPW are still at an incredible 55.9%, only the vary best seasons of the very best are very slightly better then that.


TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Last 52
67-9 (88%)​
14-10 (58%)​
8.7%​
60.9%​
78.1%​
57.2%​
91.1%​
69.9%​
27.9%​
40.0%​
54.5%​
1.33​
hide yearly totalsshow splits
2024
33-3 (92%)​
4-2 (67%)​
7.5%​
62.0%​
79.5%​
58.8%​
92.9%​
71.6%​
31.6%​
41.4%​
55.9%​
1.46​
2023
64-15 (81%)​
18-13 (58%)​
8.2%​
59.8%​
76.0%​
56.1%​
87.3%​
68.0%​
28.6%​
40.6%​
53.9%​
1.27​
2022
47-16 (75%)​
16-7 (70%)​
7.6%​
58.4%​
74.5%​
53.4%​
83.4%​
65.7%​
26.5%​
39.9%​
52.6%​
1.16​
2021
49-22 (69%)​
22-14 (61%)​
5.9%​
59.9%​
71.1%​
54.4%​
81.0%​
64.4%​
27.0%​
39.9%​
52.0%​
1.12​
2020
20-14 (59%)​
7-6 (54%)​
4.4%​
60.7%​
71.5%​
49.5%​
79.1%​
62.8%​
27.8%​
40.6%​
51.7%​
1.09​
2019
61-23 (73%)​
15-12 (56%)​
7.4%​
57.5%​
72.3%​
52.6%​
78.8%​
63.9%​
30.4%​
41.0%​
52.1%​
1.14​
2018
16-17 (48%)​
5-5 (50%)​
5.3%​
55.6%​
66.3%​
44.7%​
63.1%​
56.7%​
22.9%​
36.1%​
46.8%​
0.83​
Career
290-110 (73%)​
87-59 (60%)​
6.9%​
59.3%​
73.7%​
53.8%​
83.0%​
65.6%​
28.3%​
40.4%​
52.7%​
1.17​


What I have found remarkable is his performance in the longer rallies. Only the last two sets against Alcaraz come into mind where he underperformed against another top player, overall he won more then the best clay courter!

Much will depend on his serve which clearly suffered after the forced 2-3 week stop.
 
Just another update after the clay swing with RG. Dropped only slightly in hold% but breaks more. TPW are still at an incredible 55.9%, only the vary best seasons of the very best are very slightly better then that.


TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Last 52
67-9 (88%)​
14-10 (58%)​
8.7%​
60.9%​
78.1%​
57.2%​
91.1%​
69.9%​
27.9%​
40.0%​
54.5%​
1.33​
hide yearly totalsshow splits
2024
33-3 (92%)​
4-2 (67%)​
7.5%​
62.0%​
79.5%​
58.8%​
92.9%​
71.6%​
31.6%​
41.4%​
55.9%​
1.46​
2023
64-15 (81%)​
18-13 (58%)​
8.2%​
59.8%​
76.0%​
56.1%​
87.3%​
68.0%​
28.6%​
40.6%​
53.9%​
1.27​
2022
47-16 (75%)​
16-7 (70%)​
7.6%​
58.4%​
74.5%​
53.4%​
83.4%​
65.7%​
26.5%​
39.9%​
52.6%​
1.16​
2021
49-22 (69%)​
22-14 (61%)​
5.9%​
59.9%​
71.1%​
54.4%​
81.0%​
64.4%​
27.0%​
39.9%​
52.0%​
1.12​
2020
20-14 (59%)​
7-6 (54%)​
4.4%​
60.7%​
71.5%​
49.5%​
79.1%​
62.8%​
27.8%​
40.6%​
51.7%​
1.09​
2019
61-23 (73%)​
15-12 (56%)​
7.4%​
57.5%​
72.3%​
52.6%​
78.8%​
63.9%​
30.4%​
41.0%​
52.1%​
1.14​
2018
16-17 (48%)​
5-5 (50%)​
5.3%​
55.6%​
66.3%​
44.7%​
63.1%​
56.7%​
22.9%​
36.1%​
46.8%​
0.83​
Career
290-110 (73%)​
87-59 (60%)​
6.9%​
59.3%​
73.7%​
53.8%​
83.0%​
65.6%​
28.3%​
40.4%​
52.7%​
1.17​


What I have found remarkable is his performance in the longer rallies. Only the last two sets against Alcaraz come into mind where he underperformed against another top player, overall he won more then the best clay courter!

Much will depend on his serve which clearly suffered after the forced 2-3 week stop.

You’re doing valuable work showcasing Sinner’s unbelievable talent. It’s a shame so many reactionaries refuse to acknowledge his abilities because he lost a 5-set match coming off a 3-week period without even holding a racquet.
 
Yeah I'm not a Sinner fan but I think his RG run was really solid considering the circumstances.

Even in the semi he lost, he was totally smoking Charlie in the first set before his serve deserted him, and then the cramps.

I consider him the favorite/co-favorite at worst for Wimbledon given that he only lost to Novak in recent years and has improved since.
 
You’re doing valuable work showcasing Sinner’s unbelievable talent. It’s a shame so many reactionaries refuse to acknowledge his abilities because he lost a 5-set match coming off a 3-week period without even holding a racquet.
Is constant training always such a good thing? Federer at the aussie open 2017 had lots of time off
 
Is constant training always such a good thing? Federer at the aussie open 2017 had lots of time off

Federer in 2017 was 35, uniqely blessed with a low-injury career and had nothing significant to learn. Sinner, on the other hand, is still young and has much to improve. He needs to stay match fit.
 
Yes, JanN1ck is a great #1, #fulltechpackage! Only pb, Alcaraz ran away w/ the RG Title. This time ;) Both guys are formidable!

Not an excellent article :(

'Sinner, then, has the whole package,
even if no single one of his weapons stands out like the Isner serve.'




Lineage clue - TioJack (and TioN1ck)
 
August 2017, 7 years ago, we had some of the biggest server the sport has seen in full swing. Karlo and John, Nick and Milos with Roger in between. Interesting to compare it to the current ATP...

RkPlayer
SPW​
Ace%​
DF%​
1stIn​
1st%​
Hld%​
31Ivo Karlovic [CRO]
72.3%​
23.3%​
6.1%​
64.4%​
81.8%​
91.3%​
18John Isner [USA]
72.8%​
22.5%​
2.2%​
69.9%​
79.8%​
91.1%​
3Roger Federer [SUI]
72.5%​
12.7%​
2.1%​
63.3%​
80.1%​
89.9%​
20Nick Kyrgios [AUS]
69.9%​
18.2%​
4.1%​
65.8%​
77.6%​
88.9%​
10Milos Raonic [CAN]
70.9%​
18.2%​
4.6%​
63.8%​
80.1%​
87.3%​
12Jo Wilfried Tsonga [FRA]
69.2%​
12.1%​
3.4%​
61.0%​
79.8%​
87.2%​
49Leonardo Mayer [ARG]
67.9%​
7.5%​
3.4%​
65.3%​
74.3%​
87.1%​
21Gilles Muller [LUX]
69.4%​
17.5%​
4.6%​
62.5%​
79.9%​
87.0%​
14Tomas Berdych [CZE]
68.8%​
11.2%​
3.2%​
58.7%​
79.1%​
85.8%​
45Kevin Anderson [RSA]
69.0%​
15.1%​
3.9%​
63.5%​
77.3%​
84.6%​
6Marin Cilic [CRO]
69.2%​
14.2%​
3.7%​
57.1%​
79.8%​
83.5%​
2Rafael Nadal [ESP]
68.0%​
4.4%​
2.1%​
67.8%​
72.4%​
83.5%​
11Grigor Dimitrov [BUL]
67.4%​
9.5%​
4.0%​
63.3%​
76.1%​
82.9%​
28Feliciano Lopez [ESP]
66.4%​
12.3%​
3.3%​
59.5%​
76.9%​
82.6%​
34Steve Johnson [USA]
66.6%​
9.3%​
4.1%​
60.2%​
75.3%​
82.4%​
8Alexander Zverev [GER]
66.6%​
9.9%​
4.5%​
63.5%​
74.0%​
82.4%​
32Juan Martin Del Potro [ARG]
66.7%​
9.9%​
2.9%​
63.9%​
75.2%​
82.0%​
4Stanislas Wawrinka [SUI]
66.1%​
7.9%​
2.5%​
59.7%​
73.0%​
81.6%​
19Jack Sock [USA]
65.4%​
7.9%​
4.5%​
59.9%​
73.3%​
80.6%​
26Mischa Zverev [GER]
65.0%​
8.4%​
3.1%​
65.2%​
73.2%​
80.2%​
5Novak Djokovic [SRB]
65.9%​
5.2%​
3.1%​
64.6%​
72.7%​
80.2%​
 
RkPlayer
M W%​
SPW​
SPW-InP​
Ace%​
DF%​
1stIn​
1st%​
2nd%​
2%-InP​
Hld%​
1Jannik Sinner [ITA]
90.7%​
70.8%​
69.4%​
9.5%​
2.2%​
62.5%​
78.6%​
57.7%​
61.3%​
91.7%​
44Matteo Berrettini [ITA]
77.8%​
71.2%​
68.6%​
12.5%​
2.0%​
70.4%​
78.5%​
53.9%​
57.7%​
91.7%​
4Alexander Zverev [GER]
74.7%​
70.0%​
67.9%​
11.1%​
2.2%​
72.6%​
75.6%​
55.1%​
60.0%​
90.2%​
7Hubert Hurkacz [POL]
71.8%​
69.8%​
65.3%​
16.1%​
1.7%​
63.8%​
78.9%​
53.7%​
56.3%​
89.6%​
13Ben Shelton [USA]
63.3%​
68.5%​
67.8%​
10.9%​
4.2%​
67.5%​
75.7%​
53.4%​
61.2%​
88.6%​

Interesting to compared the hold percentages from 7 years ago. Mr. attacking game Federer had some monster (serve) stats in 2017 but could not hold as much as Sinner. He doesn't ace much but follows the serve up with amazing ball striking. Overall we not have any longer those serve bots and a half like Ivo, John, Raonic and Nick.

RkPlayer
M W%​
SPW​
SPW-InP​
Ace%​
DF%​
1stIn​
1st%​
2nd%​
2%-InP​
Hld%​
31Ivo Karlovic [CRO]
53.1%​
72.3%​
69.4%​
23.3%​
6.1%​
64.4%​
81.8%​
55.0%​
66.4%​
91.3%​
18John Isner [USA]
63.0%​
72.8%​
66.7%​
22.5%​
2.2%​
69.9%​
79.8%​
56.4%​
60.8%​
91.1%​
3Roger Federer [SUI]
93.9%​
72.5%​
70.3%​
12.7%​
2.1%​
63.3%​
80.1%​
59.6%​
63.2%​
89.9%​
20Nick Kyrgios [AUS]
68.3%​
69.9%​
66.5%​
18.2%​
4.1%​
65.8%​
77.6%​
54.9%​
62.5%​
88.9%​
10Milos Raonic [CAN]
70.9%​
70.9%​
68.2%​
18.2%​
4.6%​
63.8%​
80.1%​
54.5%​
62.4%​
87.3%​
 
RkPlayer
M W%​
SPW​
SPW-InP​
Ace%​
DF%​
1stIn​
1st%​
2nd%​
2%-InP​
Hld%​
1Jannik Sinner [ITA]
90.7%​
70.8%​
69.4%​
9.5%​
2.2%​
62.5%​
78.6%​
57.7%​
61.3%​
91.7%​
44Matteo Berrettini [ITA]
77.8%​
71.2%​
68.6%​
12.5%​
2.0%​
70.4%​
78.5%​
53.9%​
57.7%​
91.7%​
4Alexander Zverev [GER]
74.7%​
70.0%​
67.9%​
11.1%​
2.2%​
72.6%​
75.6%​
55.1%​
60.0%​
90.2%​
7Hubert Hurkacz [POL]
71.8%​
69.8%​
65.3%​
16.1%​
1.7%​
63.8%​
78.9%​
53.7%​
56.3%​
89.6%​
13Ben Shelton [USA]
63.3%​
68.5%​
67.8%​
10.9%​
4.2%​
67.5%​
75.7%​
53.4%​
61.2%​
88.6%​

Interesting to compared the hold percentages from 7 years ago. Mr. attacking game Federer had some monster (serve) stats in 2017 but could not hold as much as Sinner. He doesn't ace much but follows the serve up with amazing ball striking. Overall we not have any longer those serve bots and a half like Ivo, John, Raonic and Nick.

RkPlayer
M W%​
SPW​
SPW-InP​
Ace%​
DF%​
1stIn​
1st%​
2nd%​
2%-InP​
Hld%​
31Ivo Karlovic [CRO]
53.1%​
72.3%​
69.4%​
23.3%​
6.1%​
64.4%​
81.8%​
55.0%​
66.4%​
91.3%​
18John Isner [USA]
63.0%​
72.8%​
66.7%​
22.5%​
2.2%​
69.9%​
79.8%​
56.4%​
60.8%​
91.1%​
3Roger Federer [SUI]
93.9%​
72.5%​
70.3%​
12.7%​
2.1%​
63.3%​
80.1%​
59.6%​
63.2%​
89.9%​
20Nick Kyrgios [AUS]
68.3%​
69.9%​
66.5%​
18.2%​
4.1%​
65.8%​
77.6%​
54.9%​
62.5%​
88.9%​
10Milos Raonic [CAN]
70.9%​
70.9%​
68.2%​
18.2%​
4.6%​
63.8%​
80.1%​
54.5%​
62.4%​
87.3%​
Sinner has this year held in Federer territory.

Nole improved his serve under goran a lot and as a pure serve I think it's better than sinners and closer to Rogers. But nole did it in 30s where his ground game is declining.

Sinner is in early 20s and has huge ground game to support the serve and has been holding this crazy amount.
 
Sinner has this year held in Federer territory.

Nole improved his serve under goran a lot and as a pure serve I think it's better than sinners and closer to Rogers. But nole did it in 30s where his ground game is declining.

Sinner is in early 20s and has huge ground game to support the serve and has been holding this crazy amount.

Nobody can predict the future but I think Sinner's track record indicates that he is very good at improving and learning. Serve is the most improvable stroke during a career.
 
Funny to get cited by the AI, kudos obviously must go exclusively to Jeff…

Jannik Sinner's hold percentage is indeed impressive, but let's see how it stacks up against other top players:

1. **Jannik Sinner**: As mentioned, his hold percentage is around **91.1%**¹.
2. **Hubert Hurkacz**: He leads the tour with a slightly higher hold percentage, often around **91.8%**².
3. **John Isner**: Known for his powerful serve, Isner has a career hold percentage of **91.8%**, which is among the highest in the history of the ATP tour².
4. **Daniil Medvedev**: Medvedev also has a strong hold percentage, typically in the high 80s².
5. **Carlos Alcaraz**: Alcaraz's hold percentage is slightly lower but still impressive, usually in the mid to high 80s².

Sinner's ability to hold serve consistently places him among the elite servers on the tour, showcasing his strong serving game and overall resilience.

Is there another player whose stats you're curious about?

¹: [Tennis Abstract: ATP Match Results, Splits, and Analysis](http://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/leaders.cgi)
²: [Yes, Jannik Sinner Really Is This Good - Heavy Topspin](https://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2024/01/29/yes-jannik-sinner-really-is-this-good/)

(1) Yes, Jannik Sinner is really this good! written by Tennisabstract's .... https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...tten-by-tennisabstracts-jeff-sackmann.764091/.
(2) Yes, Jannik Sinner Really Is This Good - Heavy Topspin. https://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2024/01/29/yes-jannik-sinner-really-is-this-good/.
(3) Jannik Sinner career statistics - Wikipedia. https://bing.com/search?q=Jannik+Sinner+hold+percentage+vs+other+top+players.
(4) Jannik Sinner career statistics - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jannik_Sinner_career_statistics.
(5)
 
Can Sinner become elite Server ?
In 2022 he hit 172 aces , 7.6% ace rate and 74.5% first serve pts won , 16the in top 50
In 2023, he hit 146 aces only, 8.2% ace rate and 76.0% first serve pts won, 16th in top 50
In 2024, he has hit 594 aces, 9.9% ace rate and 79.3% first serve pts won, 3rd in top 50 behind Dimtirov and Perricard.

In last 10 matches, his ace rate is as below.
14.5
11.9
16.3
9.1
8.2
19.6
25.0
12.1
7.0
25.1

In 2024 he has hit 20% aces 6 times


Almost 80% first serve pts won, its so bizarre that great Roger Federer had only 4 seasons better between 2015 to 2018 where he heavily skipped clay tournaments and played limited schedule. And 1 more in 2009.

Fedfans's favorite Berdych never won so many pts on first serve.
Tsonga did just for 2 seasons.
Cilic did just for 1 season.
Roddick did for 5/6 seasons.
Medvedev never did.
Zverev never did.
Kyrgios did for just 2 seasons.
Del Potro never did.
Of course other baseliners like Nadal/Murray/Djokovic don't belong in this conversation.

How high up can Sinner push this? He is 6'4" so almost Raonic height. Can he push it into early 80s like Raonic now?

@ghostofMecir calculated matches played with no straight sets losses, Sinner is right behind Federer, and his Serve is big part of it. But can he make it even more impactful?
 
Can Sinner become elite Server ?
In 2022 he hit 172 aces , 7.6% ace rate and 74.5% first serve pts won , 16the in top 50
In 2023, he hit 146 aces only, 8.2% ace rate and 76.0% first serve pts won, 16th in top 50
In 2024, he has hit 594 aces, 9.9% ace rate and 79.3% first serve pts won, 3rd in top 50 behind Dimtirov and Perricard.

In last 10 matches, his ace rate is as below.
14.5
11.9
16.3
9.1
8.2
19.6
25.0
12.1
7.0
25.1

In 2024 he has hit 20% aces 6 times


Almost 80% first serve pts won, its so bizarre that great Roger Federer had only 4 seasons better between 2015 to 2018 where he heavily skipped clay tournaments and played limited schedule. And 1 more in 2009.

Fedfans's favorite Berdych never won so many pts on first serve.
Tsonga did just for 2 seasons.
Cilic did just for 1 season.
Roddick did for 5/6 seasons.
Medvedev never did.
Zverev never did.
Kyrgios did for just 2 seasons.
Del Potro never did.
Of course other baseliners like Nadal/Murray/Djokovic don't belong in this conversation.

How high up can Sinner push this? He is 6'4" so almost Raonic height. Can he push it into early 80s like Raonic now?

@ghostofMecir calculated matches played with no straight sets losses, Sinner is right behind Federer, and his Serve is big part of it. But can he make it even more impactful?
The serve can absolutely improve, and that’s pretty wild to think about. I don’t think he has the greatest placement nor does he get as many free points as he could theoretically peak at.
 
Almost 80% first serve pts won, its so bizarre that great Roger Federer had only 4 seasons better between 2015 to 2018 where he heavily skipped clay tournaments and played limited schedule. And 1 more in 2009.

......

How high up can Sinner push this? He is 6'4" so almost Raonic height. Can he push it into early 80s like Raonic now?

@ghostofMecir calculated matches played with no straight sets losses, Sinner is right behind Federer, and his Serve is big part of it. But can he make it even more impactful?

There is some scope for improvement I think but Raonic was so bulky that he should be very difficult to reach.

P.S: There might be a typo in the absolute ace numbers for 2022 and 2023
 
@ghostofMecir calculated matches played with no straight sets losses, Sinner is right behind Federer, and his Serve is big part of it. But can he make it even more impactful?
Roger Federer: 194 matches
2004-2006
Streak ended by Andy Murray in TMS Cincinnati 2006-- last ss loss before that was to Guga at 2004 RG

Bjorn Borg: 160 matches
1979-1980
Streak ended by Gene Mayer in the Masters in 1981 (there was a match in which he was ahead 4-1 and retired so technically wasn’t defeated in straight sets)

John McEnroe: 109 matches
1983-1984 (Henrik Sundstrom, Davis Cup finals)

Nastase: 107 matches
1973 (Okker, London)

Lendl: 103 matches
1988-1989 (Stefan Edberg, Masters)

Ivan Lendl: 101 matches
1981-1982 (Vilas, Monte Carlo)

Connors: 96* matches
1976-77 (Barrazutt, Richmond WCT)
(One match ended at 6-6 vs. Gottfired in LA with Connors being defaulted

Sinner: 81 matches
2023-2024 (Djokovic, Tour Finals)

 
The serve can absolutely improve, and that’s pretty wild to think about. I don’t think he has the greatest placement nor does he get as many free points as he could theoretically peak at.

During the last 52 weeks he improved further, with the ace rate now over 10%. More importantly he wins most points excluding aces and double faults among the elite. This makes his 2nd% stand out and enables a better hold percentage than Federer eight years ago.

RkPlayer
SPW​
SPW-InP​
Ace%​
DF%​
1stIn​
1st%​
2nd%​
2%-InP​
Hld%​
1Jannik Sinner [ITA]
71.5%​
70.2%​
10.1%​
2.5%​
61.3%​
79.7%​
58.4%​
62.4%​
91.5%​
30Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard [FRA]
70.5%​
67.8%​
21.1%​
6.1%​
64.9%​
79.6%​
53.7%​
65.0%​
90.1%​
15Grigor Dimitrov [BUL]
68.4%​
68.4%​
10.7%​
5.0%​
60.0%​
79.2%​
52.1%​
59.5%​
86.0%​
4Taylor Fritz [USA]
70.8%​
68.1%​
13.4%​
2.3%​
63.4%​
79.1%​
56.4%​
60.1%​
89.5%​
29Matteo Berrettini [ITA]
70.6%​
67.4%​
13.8%​
1.9%​
69.3%​
78.3%​
53.3%​
56.8%​
90.5%​
14Jack Draper [GBR]
67.4%​
66.0%​
11.5%​
3.9%​
61.1%​
77.4%​
51.6%​
57.3%​
84.4%​
22Hubert Hurkacz [POL]
68.4%​
64.4%​
14.7%​
1.8%​
63.2%​
76.9%​
54.0%​
56.8%​
87.6%​
2Alexander Zverev [GER]
70.0%​
68.4%​
11.7%​
3.0%​
70.3%​
76.7%​
54.3%​
60.4%​
89.0%​
 
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