Your realistic expectations of Jannik Sinner at AO 2020

How far does the kid go? (Up to 2 votes)


  • Total voters
    43

Jack the Hack

Hall of Fame
The kid looks like he has a great future in pro tennis. However, at #78 in the world, he's going to be unseeded and a lot will depend on his draw. Wawrinka beat him in 4 sets in the 1st round of the US Open, his only match in a major so far.

If he gets a decent draw, I could see him going a round or two. I'm not expecting much at this stage, but hope he can break through and win a couple smaller titles on the main tour in 2020.
 

James P

Hall of Fame
Yeah, it's definitely heavily dependent on draw. That said, I think he can win against even top 20 talent (see Monfils), so he's another interesting floater (Murray & Del Potro) I think many people hope to not see in their brackets.
 

megamind

Hall of Fame
3rd round I think

Mainly because at his current ranking (#78), he is likely to face a top 5 player in a match by then

If he was ranked in the top 30, he could probably squeeze through to the quarters
 

alex87

Rookie
It all depends by the draw. He can beat top 20 players thus he can reach 4R but if it is drawn with most of the top 10 players in the 1R he's immediately out.
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
Very imporrant to remember bis year end form is probably above acerage for him at this point so hes not gonna be in murdeminaur shape forever.

Beating out of top 50 players and or good showing vs top player should be enough for now
 
Third round would be great
While I get what you are saying, and that would be a nice little start for him, he and tennis fans need and want more.

Two wins at the AO (unless big upsets) won't do much in moving the needle. I think if he is as great as everybody is saying he can be, a "great" run would be 4th round (losing to top 20 player) or QF's.

My expectation is third round like you said, but no, I won't see it as "great."
 

Jack the Hack

Hall of Fame
Four.

He won three matches in a Major to get to R1...

Seriously? Nobody counts qualifying matches the same as being in the main draw. Otherwise, a player like Noah Rubin is legendary for his Grand Slam prowess. Qualifying is only best of three sets at the US Open and is the tournament for those guys ranked outside the top 100 in hopes of getting a round 1 or 2 payday, usually doubling their earnings for the year.

Again, Sinner has a great career ahead of him, but Australia will only be his 2nd Slam. (Losing in the 1st round of qualies at Wimbledon last summer doesn't count either.) ;)
 

daggerman

New User
It doesn't matter, to be honest. He's playing with house money this season. If he wins a round or two, that's a success; if he loses in the first round, no big deal. Either way, he's a special, special talent.
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
While I get what you are saying, and that would be a nice little start for him, he and tennis fans need and want more.

Two wins at the AO (unless big upsets) won't do much in moving the needle. I think if he is as great as everybody is saying he can be, a "great" run would be 4th round (losing to top 20 player) or QF's.

My expectation is third round like you said, but no, I won't see it as "great."
He's just turned 18. You want young dudes to stop being useless as early as Oz 2020 Sinner is not your guy probably.
 

Jack the Hack

Hall of Fame
"Nick has the personality of a rotten banana and the game of a 20 year old twinkie. It looks like a delicious twinkie but it is rock hard and beyond expired."

:-D LOL! I love that quote in your signature... too funny... and unfortunately, too true.
 
He's just turned 18. You want young dudes to stop being useless as early as Oz 2020 Sinner is not your guy probably.
Agreed. But I also don't think we should hype these guys so high or this early if we are saying a "great" run is a third round loss.

I think third round for Sinner would be about what a top 50 guy should do.
 

Jack the Hack

Hall of Fame
Agreed. But I also don't think we should hype these guys so high or this early if we are saying a "great" run is a third round loss.

I think third round for Sinner would be about what a top 50 guy should do.
Third round is the round of 32, so a bit better than top 50. If he lives up to his current ranking, he's supposed to lose in the 1st round, so 3rd round seems like it would be a good achievement for someone so inexperienced. For comparison, Zverev didn't make his first 3rd round until age 19 and his 4th major draw... and he's only made it one round further in his career.

Speaking of Zverev, he seems pretty distracted right now... http://baseline.tennis.com/article/86252/zverev-heads-mexico-new-girlfriend. So many pitfalls to a young tennis career... ;)
 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
Seriously? Nobody counts qualifying matches the same as being in the main draw. Otherwise, a player like Noah Rubin is legendary for his Grand Slam prowess. Qualifying is only best of three sets at the US Open and is the tournament for those guys ranked outside the top 100 in hopes of getting a round 1 or 2 payday, usually doubling their earnings for the year.

Again, Sinner has a great career ahead of him, but Australia will only be his 2nd Slam. (Losing in the 1st round of qualies at Wimbledon last summer doesn't count either.) ;)
A better set of qualies “kings” would be Elias Ymer, who is 6-10 in advancing from wins including a CYGS in 2015, OR Peter Polansky, who had a CYGS of reaching MD as a LL in 2018.

Sinner’s rapid climb from sub-qualies ranking to DE level will ensure his two slam qualifying efforts in 2019 will be his last for a very long time. His pair of appearances matches fedr’s two 1999 slam qualies and is one less than Joe Kovic’s efforts in 2005. Nadal never appeared in qualies, gaining MDs at 2003 Wimbledon and USO from a winter-to-late spring rush of points from several Challengers finals/titles and two R16s at M1K M-C and Hamburg.
 

megamind

Hall of Fame
A better set of qualies “kings” would be Elias Ymer, who is 6-10 in advancing from wins including a CYGS in 2015, OR Peter Polansky, who had a CYGS of reaching MD as a LL in 2018.

Sinner’s rapid climb from sub-qualies ranking to DE level will ensure his two slam qualifying efforts in 2019 will be his last for a very long time. His pair of appearances matches fedr’s two 1999 slam qualies and is one less than Joe Kovic’s efforts in 2005. Nadal never appeared in qualies, gaining MDs at 2003 Wimbledon and USO from a winter-to-late spring rush of points from several Challengers finals/titles and two R16s at M1K M-C and Hamburg.
sureshian translation:

nagal is da goat
 
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