Zverev: Medvedev #1 Player in the World

Meles

Bionic Poster
The Zedulous One just declared today, Medvedev #1 Player in the World

Top 20 Points since Wimbledon:
1 Daniil Medvedev 23 3950
2 Rafael Nadal 33 3000
3 Alexander Zverev 22 1330
4 Novak Djokovic 32 1220
5 Dominic Thiem 26 1210

6 Matteo Berrettini 23 1135
7 David Goffin 28 1060
8 Andrey Rublev 21 930
9 Stefanos Tsitsipas 21 870
10 Nikoloz Basilashvili 27 870
11 Gael Monfils 33 820
12 Pablo Carreno Busta 28 807
13 Grigor Dimitrov 28 805
14 Diego Schwartzman 27 800
15 Alex de Minaur 20 790
16 Karen Khachanov 23 730
17 Albert Ramos-Vinolas 31 725
18 John Isner 34 655
19 Nick Kyrgios 24 645
20 Roger Federer 38 630

And he's right.o_O
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
@Meles I just posted in another thread five minutes ago that Medvedev has a great chance of becoming #1 either after Australia or, perhaps more likely, at some point in March or early April depending on how Indian Wells and Miami go.
Thank you. I've been posting this in a number of threads this week.

I'm surprised you think he can pass Nadal that quickly, but it makes sense especially if Nadal does not defend his Australian Open Final well.

Here are points since Australian Open:
1 Rafael Nadal 33 7980
2 Novak Djokovic 32 5855
3 Daniil Medvedev 23 5045
4 Roger Federer 38 5010
5 Dominic Thiem 26 4390
6 Stefanos Tsitsipas 21 2595
7 Matteo Berrettini 23 2435
8 Alexander Zverev 22 2420
9 David Goffin 28 2170
10 Fabio Fognini 32 2100
11 Roberto Bautista Agut 31 1920
12 Karen Khachanov 23 1605
13 Diego Schwartzman 27 1580
14 Benoit Paire 30 1483
15 John Isner 34 1390
16 Gael Monfils 33 1355
17 Kei Nishikori 29 1345
18 Felix Auger-Aliassime 19 1336
19 Nikoloz Basilashvili 27 1270
20 Stan Wawrinka 34 1190
21 Dusan Lajovic 29 1186
22 Andrey Rublev 21 1136
23 Grigor Dimitrov 28 1117
24 Borna Coric 22 1090
25 Guido Pella 29 1075
26 Taylor Fritz 21 1075
27 Denis Shapovalov 20 1030
28 Pablo Carreno Busta 28 1017
29 Albert Ramos-Vinolas 31 1015
30 Jan-Lennard Struff 29 1010
31 Hubert Hurkacz 22 998
32 Alex de Minaur 20 955

Three thousand points is a lot to make up. Daniil probably would need to sweep the rest of the tournaments this year to get himself in position.
 
@Meles Realistically, he can only get to #1 after Australia if Nadal is injured and so doesn't play again this year and/or loses early in Australia. Medvedev definitely has a shot at #2 after Australia, though.

I was thinking more that Medvedev might get to #1 after Indian Wells or Miami. Sure, Nadal could gain points there, too, so it won't be easy, but Medvedev could also gain a lot.
 
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Deleted member 763691

Guest
Rafa will probably gain huge points in the clay season, because he can do far better than what he did this year :)
And I doubt Rafa will lose points at the AO anyway, considering how consistent he's been at slams recently..... its almost a given that he'll made the semis or final.
Also, Medvedev isn't as close to beating Rafa as you think.....this year they met at Canada and Rafa won 63 60, and they met at the USO and Rafa was up 2 sets to love and a break!
 
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Deleted member 629564

Guest
3 Alexander Zverev 1330
4 Novak Djokovic 1220

tenor.gif
 

Meles

Bionic Poster

Meles

Bionic Poster
He is even No.1 since the start of the grass season

1. Medvedev 4220
2. Nadal 3720
3. Djokovic 3220
4. Federer 2330
He could gain a lot of ground on grass in 2020 as that is the surface he broke out on in 2017. 2018 he was injured. 2019 frustrated by Goffin.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Rafa will probably gain huge points in the clay season, because he can do far better than what he did this year :)
And I doubt Rafa will lose points at the AO anyway, considering how consistent he's been at slams recently..... its almost a given that he'll made the semis or final.
Also, Medvedev isn't as close to beating Rafa as you think.....this year they met at Canada and Rafa won 63 60, and they met at the USO and Rafa was up 2 sets to love and a break!
The simple problem for any of the Big 3 is they will not play nearly as many events as the Mad Lad who is finishing 2019 with 4 events in a row. ;)
 

UnderratedSlam

G.O.A.T.
Very good. I've been warning of him for quite some time, but he's exceeded my hopes tremendously on movement and return this year.

His potential is not even fully realized because his serve will likely get a bit better in the coming years.
Six finales in a row, including a slam and three M1000s.

That's ATG at the beginning of a career, right there. Zero doubts. He will dominate.

Unless someone can find me a non-ATG who ever achieved that...
 

UnderratedSlam

G.O.A.T.
Well if they want to be year end number one they probably should right that off for the foreseeable future. ;)
As I said, it's not their main goal.

However, Bearerer can't be no 1 unless he wins a slam. That won't be easy, regardless how well he is playing... That is the big IF here.

Or if he becomes no 1 with 2 slam finales that won't be a real no 1...
 
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Meles

Bionic Poster
However, Bearerer can't be no 1 unless he wins a slam. That won't be easy, regardless how well he is playing... That is the big IF here.

Or if he becomes no 1 with 2 slam finales that won't be a real no 1...
Are you saying that if a player sweeps all the ATP Masters 1000 events that they can't be ATP year end number one without winning one major?:unsure:
 

UnderratedSlam

G.O.A.T.
Are you saying that if a player sweeps all the ATP Masters 1000 events that they can't be ATP year end number one without winning one major?:unsure:
Such a scenario is impossible, even if the player's name is Zverev.

Numerically you can have all sorts of absurd no 1 scenarios, but only 2-3 times did a player become no 1 without having a slam title until then, Lendl and Rios. Lendl of course eventually won many.

Especially absurd scenario given the Big 3 dominance.

But then again, you might have been trolling...
 

James P

G.O.A.T.
Not good enough to compare with Bearerer's run...

... which isn't even over yet.

Besides, Rios isn't an obscurity, sort of a half-ATG.
Both are fair points. I'd be surprised if Medvedev didn't stretch his streak to at least 8. We'll have to see how he fairs in Paris should he get to 8.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Such a scenario is impossible, even if the player's name is Zverev.

Numerically you can have all sorts of absurd no 1 scenarios, but only 2-3 times did a player become no 1 without having a slam title until then, Lendl and Rios. Lendl of course eventually won many.

Especially absurd scenario given the Big 3 dominance.

But then again, you might have been trolling...
I'm saying Medvedev can become number one without winning a slam.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
Rafa will probably gain huge points in the clay season, because he can do far better than what he did this year :)
And I doubt Rafa will lose points at the AO anyway, considering how consistent he's been at slams recently..... its almost a given that he'll made the semis or final.
Also, Medvedev isn't as close to beating Rafa as you think.....this year they met at Canada and Rafa won 63 60, and they met at the USO and Rafa was up 2 sets to love and a break!
Medvedev is only going to improve while Nadal is only going to decline. Father time is undefeated. So sooner or later Medvedev will defeat Nadal (and Djokovic) in Slams.
 

Apun94

Hall of Fame
He could theoretically get to #1 post-AO, but it's pretty early to imagine Shanghai W followed by Moscow W followed by Vienna W followed by Paris W followed by London max point W followed by ATP Cup W followed by Auckland W followed by Australian Open W. Like really, really, really early.
Lol easy there
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
The Zedulous One just declared today, Medvedev #1 Player in the World

Top 20 Points since Wimbledon:
1 Daniil Medvedev 23 3950
2 Rafael Nadal 33 3000
3 Alexander Zverev 22 1330
4 Novak Djokovic 32 1220
5 Dominic Thiem 26 1210

6 Matteo Berrettini 23 1135
7 David Goffin 28 1060
8 Andrey Rublev 21 930
9 Stefanos Tsitsipas 21 870
10 Nikoloz Basilashvili 27 870
11 Gael Monfils 33 820
12 Pablo Carreno Busta 28 807
13 Grigor Dimitrov 28 805
14 Diego Schwartzman 27 800
15 Alex de Minaur 20 790
16 Karen Khachanov 23 730
17 Albert Ramos-Vinolas 31 725
18 John Isner 34 655
19 Nick Kyrgios 24 645
20 Roger Federer 38 630

And he's right.o_O
The year did not start after Wimbledon. Sure, Medvedev's explosion was after Wimbledon. But he can't be #1 in 2020 if he keeps those poor numbers on clay. He won 0 Masters on clay and lost in the first round of RG. His height is an issue for the mobility and speed on clay. He won't take the #1 from Nadal until he improves on clay.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
The year did not start after Wimbledon. Sure, Medvedev's explosion was after Wimbledon. But he can't be #1 in 2020 if he keeps those poor numbers on clay. He won 0 Masters on clay and lost in the first round of RG. His height is an issue for the mobility and speed on clay. He won't take the #1 from Nadal until he improves on clay.
Lets look at what it will really take just to get to #1. The minimum assumption is Nadal defends all his points through Wimbledon in 2020. That is 6225 points. Medvedev so far since Wimbledon has a 4350 points to 3000 lead. Medvedev needs to get to 9225 points after Wimbledon, so 4875 points versus Nadal 6225 in 2020 through Wimbledon. :sneaky:

Rest of 2019:
We'll assume WTF is a wash between the players and that Nadal skips Paris:
Moscow - wins it and 250 points
Vienna - no bye, skips (wins if he plays, but then loses final in Paris so points close, plays if he goes out early Moscow to Rublev in QF)
Paris - 1000 point win, which seems reasonable as Djokovic slightly beatable right now

The following super imposes results over 2020 schedule:
27 / 2019 Wimbledon SF 720
R32 Grass David Goffin Daniil Medvedev 4-6 6-2 3-6 6-3 7-5 H2H
25 / 2019 Queen's F 300
SF Grass Gilles Simon Daniil Medvedev 6-7(4) 6-4 6-3 H2H
24 / 2019 Stuttgart - F 150
R16 Grass Lucas Pouille Daniil Medvedev 7-6(6) 4-6 6-2 H2H
22 / 2019 FO - RG QF 360
R128 Clay Pierre-Hugues Herbert Daniil Medvedev 4-6 4-6 6-3 6-2 7-5 H2H
20 / 2019 Rome Masters - QF 180
R64 Clay Nick Kyrgios Daniil Medvedev 6-3 3-6 6-3 H2H
19 / 2019 Madrid Masters - QF 180
R64 Clay Guido Pella Daniil Medvedev 6-2 1-6 6-3 H2H
17 / 2019 Barcelona - SF 180
F Clay Dominic Thiem Daniil Medvedev 6-4 6-0 H2H
16 / 2019 Monte Carlo Masters - QF 180
SF Clay Dusan Lajovic Daniil Medvedev 7-5 6-1 H2H
12 / 2019 Miami Masters - SF 360
R16 Hard Roger Federer Daniil Medvedev 6-4 6-2 H2H
10 / 2019 Indian Wells Masters - SF 360
R32 Hard Filip Krajinovic Daniil Medvedev 6-3 6-2 H2H
9 / 2019 Dubai - 300 points final
R32 Hard Richard Berankis Daniil Medvedev 6-3 6-3 H2H
7 / 2019 Rotterdam - 500 point win
SF I Hard Gael Monfils Daniil Medvedev Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 46 63 64 H2H
6 / 2019 Sofia - skips
F I Hard Daniil Medvedev Marton Fucsovics 6-4 6-3 H2H
3 / 2019 Australian Open - SF 720
R16 Hard Novak Djokovic Daniil Medvedev 6-4 6-7(5) 6-2 6-3 H2H
1 / 2019 Brisbane - replaced by ATP Cup, 180 in group, 120 for quarterfinal win or plays Adelaide/Auckland - 300 points
F Hard Kei Nishikori Daniil Medvedev 6-4 3-6 6-2 H2H

The above alone is 6150 points, 1300 points past the goal post. It assumes he plays to his seed for the most part. It removes Sofia from schedule which probably will be on his schedule, but might be dropped if Medvedev makes SF at Australian Open. This would have him within 75 points. It also gets much easier once Medvedev passes Djokovic for #2 as that means Nadal guaranteed to seed out with Djokerer SFs at every major event. If Medvedev continues to cruise towards WTF he'll probably be within at least 1500 points of Djokovic and a good chance to pass him before IW/Miami swing and grab the #2 seed.;) Nadal could easily have better results for the first half, but that assumes he stays healthy the whole period, etc., etc. and I'd bet against that. Medvedev also does not have a ton of ATP 250/500 points which I failed to adjust for in the above. Med has Final in 500 at Washington and 500 for winning Moscow and St. Pete. Monte Carlo will count as one of those so he has 5 250/500 in the above tally so he loses 450 points right there.:( In short its very doable unless Medvedev completely derails due to injury or mental fatigue he has 850 points to drop from the proposed results and the above gives him no slam finals or Masters 1000 victories.:sneaky:
 
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ghostofMecir

Hall of Fame
Very good. I've been warning of him for quite some time, but he's exceeded my hopes tremendously on movement and return this year.

His potential is not even fully realized because his serve will likely get a bit better in the coming years.

This is true. His serve has much more potential at that height and at that point, he’ll be very, very difficult to defeat in any match since he already is right now. He would have won the USO final without too many difficulties with a maxed out serve,

Also, Zverev’s and service hold %s don’t make any sense. This guy blasts it out wide at 132 mph and gets broken left and right by nobodies. It’s obvious the future is with 6’4+ giants on tour.
 

topher

Hall of Fame
First of all, hate the mentality of Zverev to hype his opponent before getting beat. Of course I’m sure he’d love for the Big 3 to fall off, Med as emperor would likely spot him a couple slams in the next few years.

Med likely can be number 1 though, for 3 reasons: 1) He’s peaking at the right time, as the Big 3 lost another step this year and are not getting younger. 2) He’s got it between the ears where his contemporaries do not. 3) No major weaknesses in his game.

That said, Novak is not dead and neither really are Fedal. And he’s tall and plays defensive, no one knows how his body will hold up.
Lets look at what it will really take just to get to #1. The minimum assumption is Nadal defends all his points through Wimbledon in 2020. That is 6225 points.

Rest of 2019:
We'll assume WTF is a wash between the players and that Nadal skips Paris:
Moscow - wins it and 250 points
Vienna - no bye, skips (wins if he plays, but then loses final in Paris so points close, plays if he goes out early Moscow to Rublev in QF)
Paris - 1000 point win, which seems reasonable as Djokovic slightly beatable right now

The following super imposes results over 2020 schedule:
27 / 2019 Wimbledon SF 720
R32 Grass David Goffin Daniil Medvedev 4-6 6-2 3-6 6-3 7-5 H2H
25 / 2019 Queen's F 300
SF Grass Gilles Simon Daniil Medvedev 6-7(4) 6-4 6-3 H2H
24 / 2019 Stuttgart - F 150
R16 Grass Lucas Pouille Daniil Medvedev 7-6(6) 4-6 6-2 H2H
22 / 2019 FO - RG QF 360
R128 Clay Pierre-Hugues Herbert Daniil Medvedev 4-6 4-6 6-3 6-2 7-5 H2H
20 / 2019 Rome Masters - QF 180
R64 Clay Nick Kyrgios Daniil Medvedev 6-3 3-6 6-3 H2H
19 / 2019 Madrid Masters - QF 180
R64 Clay Guido Pella Daniil Medvedev 6-2 1-6 6-3 H2H
17 / 2019 Barcelona - SF 180
F Clay Dominic Thiem Daniil Medvedev 6-4 6-0 H2H
16 / 2019 Monte Carlo Masters - QF 180
SF Clay Dusan Lajovic Daniil Medvedev 7-5 6-1 H2H
12 / 2019 Miami Masters - SF 360
R16 Hard Roger Federer Daniil Medvedev 6-4 6-2 H2H
10 / 2019 Indian Wells Masters - SF 360
R32 Hard Filip Krajinovic Daniil Medvedev 6-3 6-2 H2H
9 / 2019 Dubai - 300 points final
R32 Hard Richard Berankis Daniil Medvedev 6-3 6-3 H2H
7 / 2019 Rotterdam - 500 point win
SF I Hard Gael Monfils Daniil Medvedev Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 46 63 64 H2H
6 / 2019 Sofia - skips
F I Hard Daniil Medvedev Marton Fucsovics 6-4 6-3 H2H
3 / 2019 Australian Open - SF 720
R16 Hard Novak Djokovic Daniil Medvedev 6-4 6-7(5) 6-2 6-3 H2H
1 / 2019 Brisbane - replaced by ATP Cup, 180 in group, 120 for quarterfinal win or plays Adelaide/Auckland - 300 points
F Hard Kei Nishikori Daniil Medvedev 6-4 3-6 6-2 H2H

The above alone is 6150 points, just 75 points off the goal post. It assumes he plays to his seed for the most part. It removes Sofia from schedule which probably will be on his schedule, but might be dropped if Medvedev makes SF at Australian Open. This would have him within 75 points. It also gets much easier once Medvedev passes Djokovic for #2 as that means Nadal guaranteed to seed out with Djokerer SFs at every major event. If Medvedev continues to cruise towards WTF he'll probably be within at least 1500 points of Djokovic and a good chance to pass him before IW/Miami swing and grab the #2 seed.;) Nadal could easily have better results for the first half, but that assumes he stays healthy the whole period, etc., etc. and I'd bet against that. In short its very doable unless Medvedev completely derails due to injury or mental fatigue. Medvedev also does not have a ton of ATP 250/500 points which I failed to adjust for in the above. Med has Final in 500 at Washington and 500 for winning Moscow and St. Pete. Monte Carlo will count as one of those so he has 5 250/500 in the above tally so he loses 450 points right there.:( This means he needs one big result like a final in a major or win Masters 1000 at IW/Miami to close the proposed gap.

You act like living up to a top 3 seed is an easy assumption, ask Zverev how automatic it was after he hit #3.
 
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