Duel Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Roddick & Federer vs Blake, Cincinnati finals 2005 & 2007

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Roger Federer beat Andy Roddick 6-3, 7-5 in the Cincinnati final, 2005 on hard court

It was Federer's first title at the event and he would go onto win the US Open shortly after

Federer won 61 points, Roddick 48

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (32/50) 64%
- 1st serve points won (28/32) 88%
- 2nd serve points won (10/18) 56%
- Aces 6, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (21/50) 42%

Roddick...
- 1st serve percentage (33/59) 56%
- 1st serve points won (24/33) 73%
- 2nd serve points won (12/26) 46%
- Aces 11, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (21/59) 36%

Serve Patterns
Federer served...
- to FH 41%
- to BH 51%
- to Body 8%

Roddick served...
- to FH 29%
- to BH 62%
- to Body 9%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 37 (10 FH, 27 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 8 Errors, comprising...
- 1 Unforced (1 BH)
- 7 Forced (3 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (37/58) 64%

Roddick made...
- 28 (13 FH, 15 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- 9 Forced (2 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (28/49) 57%

Break Points
Federer 4/6 (4 games)
Roddick 1/2 (2 games)

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Federer 13 (7 FH, 3 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV)
Roddick 7 (3 FH, 1 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)

Federer's FHs - 3 cc (1 pass), 3 dtl (1 return) and 1 inside-out
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 1 dtl and 1 drop shot (likely accidental)

- 2 from serve-volley points - 1 first volley FHV and 1 second volley BHV (a stop)

Roddick's FHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl and 1 inside-out
- BH - 1 dtl pass

- the FHV was a first volley of a serve-volley point, the BHV was played net-to-net and the BH1/2V was a stop

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Federer 19
- 11 Unforced (5 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV)
- 8 Forced (4 FH, 4 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 39.1

Roddick 25
- 13 Unforced (6 FH, 4 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV)
- 12 Forced (2 FH, 4 BH, 1 FH1/2V, 2 BHV, 3 BH1/2V)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.9

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 9/12 (75%) at net, including...
- 5/6 (83%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 5/5 off first serve and...
- 0/1 off second serve

Roddick was...
- 12/23 (52%) at net, including...
- 6/13 serve-volleying, comprising...
- 4/7 (57%) off first serve and...
- 2/6 (33%) off second serve
------
Match Report
A silky exhibition of superiority from Roger Federer that leaves Andy Roddick looking helpless

After opening with a love hold, Roddick has a break point on his first return game, thanks to 3 consecutive errors from Federer. Roddick misses a makeable first serve return on it - and lets out a cry of anguish. Understandable as he barely gets a sniff against the serve afterwards and one senses, he knew that would be the case

Federer's 'plan' is straightforward; play normally. Roddick's big serve weapon - according to commentators, his average first serve speed for the tournament was 130 mph - doesn't bother him unduly. While huge, the serve usually isn't licking lines. I imagine against virtually anybody else, it wouldn't have to to win points.... but Federer is a different kettle of fish. Anything that isn't unreturnable, comes back

Roddick's attack is based on taking the net and serve-volleying. And its hard to imagine a more clueless demonstration of this style of play. He serves so hard that even blocked returns (Federer mostly blocks back returns) reach him while he's out of position. And he's out of position both because he's slow to move forward and because he doesn't seem to know what he's trying to do

Roddick looks like he's hoping the return doesn't come back and if it does, he can hit a groundstroke at net. In other words, he's not committed to actually volleying. He makes rarely seen types of errors - misses slow, loopy floaters that are dipping a bit, misses half-volleys when he could have stepped back and hit a groundstroke, misses half volleys he could have come forward to more and volleyed. The volleys he does make aren't particularly well placed and he doesn't look likely to make difficult volleys. He doesn't have to because Federer wisely doesn't go for too much on passes.... he can see what he's doing is enough for Roddick's limited net skills

But what were his alternatives? Baseline to baseline, he leans back and takes big cuts at the ball, but Federer's movement and defence can handle it facilely. On the other hand, Federer's taking-it-early style of attack - which he holds back going full throttle on - is enough to forcefully close out points

And Roddick is prone to errors and completely harmless off the BH side to boot

Federer himself comes to net a fair bit - serve-volleying 6 times. He wins a point with a beautiful pair of volleys, the killing strike being a low, 2nd volley stop BHV for the winner

Federer is even more untouchable on serve in the second set but against the run of play, Roddick conjures a break, helped by a pair of Fed groundstroke errors but also forcing a passing error and striking a BH dtl pass. He can't consolidate though as Fed breaks back with a couple of FH dtl winners (including a return, as Roddick slips after serving) and Roddick finishes the job for him by missing an easy volley. Match continues on serve til Roddick makes 3 regulation errors to give up the match

Statistical Points of Interest
- Note Federer leading the unreturned serve count 42% to 36%. Mostly a product of the Swiss' extraordinary ability to return the huge Roddick serve, which makes his own look like its in slow motion. Roddick's return isn't the best though.... he misses a number of makeable returns that were marked forced (he has 9 return FEs in all), let alone the 5 unforced ones

- Fed's UEFI of 39.1 is the lowest I've tracked and the only time I've seen that figure end under 40 (i.e. under neutral). His 11 UEs comprise 2 defensive, 6 neutral and 3 attacking shots (he doesn't miss a winner attempt). Its a sign he was playing within himself.... that's all he needed to do against an opponent who couldn't hurt him, once the serve was returned
---

Summing up, a consummate showing from Federer. His ability to return the huge Roddick serve is the key.... without that, the American doesn't seem able to hurt him and both players seem to know it. Beyond that, Fed playing within himself, doing just enough and not trying for unnecessary fireworks. Roddick making a mess of matters at net, but its unlikely he would've done much better from the baseline
 

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Roger Federer beat James Blake 6-1, 6-4 in the Cincinnati final, 2007 on hard court

It was Federer's second title at the event and he would go onto win the US Open shortly after

Federer won 65 points, Blake 48

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (41/66) 62%
- 1st serve points won (34/41) 83%
- 2nd serve points won (10/25) 40%
- Aces 9 (2 second serves), Service Winners 3
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/66) 39%

Blake...
- 1st serve percentage (24/47) 51%
- 1st serve points won (15/24) 63%
- 2nd serve points won (11/23) 48%
- Aces 3
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (9/47) 19%

Serve Patterns
Federer served...
- to FH 28%
- to BH 67%
- to Body 5%

Blake served...
- to FH 37%
- to BH 60%
- to Body 2%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 34 (12 FH, 22 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 6 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 4 Forced (3 FH, 1 BH)
- Return Rate (34/43) 79%

Blake made...
- 38 (8 FH, 30 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 1 return-approach
- 1 Winner (1 FH), a runaround FH
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (2 BH)
- 12 Forced (5 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (38/64) 59%

Break Points
Federer 3/6 (4 games)
Blake 0/5 (2 games)

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Federer 11 (7 FH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH)
Blake 12 (8 FH, 1 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

Federer's FHs - 1 cc, 2 dtl (1 pass), 2 inside-out, 1 inside-in and 1 lob at net

- 1 BHV was the first volley of a serve-volley point

Blake's FHs - 2 cc (1 runaround return), 2 dtl, 2 inside-out, 1 inside-in and 1 running-down-a-drop-shot at net
- BH - 1 cc pass

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Federer 25
- 14 Unforced (10 FH, 4 BH)
- 11 Forced (5 FH, 6 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.4

Blake 24
- 14 Unforced (10 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV)
- 10 Forced (3 FH, 5 BH, 1 FH1/2V, 1 BH1/2V)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.9

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 8/9 (89%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a first serve

Blake was...
- 7/13 (54%) at net, with...
- 1/1 return-approaching
----
Match Report
A straight forward match. Federer delivers a boatload of unreturned serves and is reactive in play, while Blake looks to hammer away with his huge FH. Playing uncharacteristically passively, Federer is even in play with the brutally powerful Blake.... and the large comparative advantage he has on serve is more than enough to put him comfortably ahead overall

Federer breaks in the second game with Blake making 3 FH errors. He has to survive a gruelling 20 point service game (saving 3 break points), but breaks to love immediately afterwards and serves out the set

First game of second set, Blake serves 4 double faults in the first 7 points and is lucky to hold serve. After Federer breaks to take a 4-3 lead, Blake has 2 break points to restore parity - and he earns that position by forcing 2 third ball errors with big BH returns. Federer however, saves both by coming to net... and next service game, closes the match

Playing Dynamics & Stats
There's no subtlety to Blake's game. His serve isn't powerful, and Federer gets it back comfortably - just 19% unreturned serves for the American (Fed has 39%). After that, he looks to land haymaker FHs. He's in the net positive on the FH - 8 winners to 10 UEs, but most of the 11 errors he forces out of Federer come from the Blake FH too.... but its not a strategy that's likely to hold game after game after game because making errors goes with the territory of being as big and aggressive with the FH as Blake is. And that's how he loses - he makes 5 FH UEs in the 2 games that he's broken in the first set (he also makes 3 in the game he's broken in the second - 1 FH, 1 BH and 1 FHV).

Blake's BH is harmless and passive. It not breaking down and bleeding errors is a good result for him - and in that light, he has a good day with it. Just the 3 UEs (Federer has 4). But with neither the serve, nor the BH doing damage.... the consistency to deliver with the FH is too much to expect

Federer by contrast leads with the serve... and obviously, he's much more in control of it than Blake is with his FH. For one thing, he directs it predominantly to Blake's relatively weak BH - 67% serve to a particular side is high for Federer. Winning 83% of first serves gives Federer the cushion he needs to stay on top - without taking risks

If anything, Federer overdoes the passivity. For large parts of the second set, he's actually playing standard 'pushing' tennis - closed court, up and down the middle stuff with no great power. Doing this, there's always a chance of Blake making an aggressive FH error

Look at numbers in play. Winners - Fed 11, Blake 12. Unforced errors - both players with 14. Forced errors - Fed 11, Blake 10. They're virtually dead even. But the Swiss has the 39-19% unreturned serve headstart…. he doesn't have to outplay Blake to win and doesn't seem to try too hard to do so

Federer is also much better on defence. Running down balls side to side or flicking very deep balls off the baseline.... it takes a lot more to get an error out of him than it does the comparatively slow and utterly offence minded American.

An odd stat is second serve points won in the first set. The two players combine for a total of 2/17 (Fed 2/13, Blake 0/4). Indeed, both finish with sub-50% numbers. Federer does worse (40% to Blake's 48%), but his serve percentage is much better (62% to 51%) and he's much stronger on first serve points won (83% to 63%)… but the second serve numbers are showing that in play, Blake was a touch the better player

Summing up, Federer riding to victory on the back of his serve, while passively content to play second fiddle in court action. Blake, overdependent on the FH, which delivers but not to the extent necessary to hang tight with the big servers
 
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