Because I am convinced that only Thiem (and maybe Medvedev) can defeat Novak in an AO final. I also don't believe that Novak will magically start losing before the finals, I consider that he will indeed lose some AO finals before retiring. It is only my opinion, I can be wrong of course.
Great post as usual. I agree except I think Medvedev is more likely to defeat Novak in AO than Thiem is.
It's hard to overestimate the mental impact of these tough losses in a major. The fact that Thiem was 2 sets to up against a less than 100% (B game) Novak, and still couldn't close the deal, will continue to haunt the Austrian. Will he ever face a worse Djokovic in a slam final? One can reasonably assume that Thiem will lack belief against Novak EVEN MORE while closing out future matches. Plus Djokovic will gain confidence for next time the Serb faces Thiem in a major - the big 3 have killer instinct in spades. You show them a weakness and they pounce on it.
Most of the future world #1 and great champions don't fail to close the deal. Nadal did, Federer did and so did Novak. The fact that Thiem is 0-3 in grand slam finals does NOT augur well for his future. You cannot keep missing opportunities until it messes you completely. Thiem clearly CANNOT beat Novak/Nadal until both decline. Once they do, there will be younger and hungrier players who will foil Thiem again.
You got to make hay while the sun shines. For Thiem unfortunately, the sun won't be shining much longer. He had the best chance of his career, and blew it. The putative prince will NEVER be a King IMO.