Is the 2017 French Open going to be that "changing of the guard" moment for Djokovic?

[McEnroeisanartist]

Anyone else feel like this year's 2017 French Open will be a huge grand slam for Djokovic. Win it and talk of his steep decline goes away. Lose and it may be a changing of the guard moment like the following moments:

2001 Wimbledon - Federer defeats Sampras - for the first time since 1993 French Open, Sampras did not hold at least one of the four majors.

2011 Australian Open - Djokovic defeats Federer - for the first time since 2003 French Open, Federer did not hold at least one of the four majors.

2015 French Open - Djokovic defeats Nadal - Nadal no longer held one of the four Grand Slams and his streak at the tournament came to an end

2017 French Open - If he loses, for the first time since 2014 French Open, Djokovic will no longer hold one of the four Grand Slams, if he loses before the final, it will be the first time since 2010 French Open and Wimbledon that he failed to reach the final in consecutive Grand Slams.

 

[Mr Feeny]

I think there's a big chance he doesn't win it.

 

[sureshs]

Stevie Johnson is coming off a clay court victory and will be the surprise winner of the FO

 

[1HBH-DownTheLine]

i can't see novak winning it. i could see him getting to the semis and losing though.

 

[Mr.Lob]

Changing of the guard... to who? There's no changing of the guard If he loses. If Novak loses in a early round, just furthers the discussion of why he has declined so much so fast.

 

[boredone3456]

Changing of the guard... to who? There's no changing of the guard If he loses. If Novak loses in a early round, just furthers the discussion of why he has declined so much so fast.

Bingo..who is there to inherit the throne? right now the list of favorites at the french is arguable the exact same people its been for a while now. I don't see any new name really poised to smash through and win the thing, Maybe Thiem could shock us all if his smaller clay court titles lead to success. Outside of Novak, Rafa, Fed, Stan and Murray who else is really a threat to win RG this year? I mean honestly if Murray and Novak are struggling and Fed doesn't play that to me just says Stan might get major #4 if Rafa can't deliver.

 

[McEnroeisanartist]

Well obviously Sampras losing to Federer at 2001 Wimbledon didn't send Federer to the top of the throne, but I think it was a changing of the guard, in that Sampras now longer held a Grand Slam, after kinda struggling for 3 years, "only" winning Wimbledon in 1998, 1999, and 2000, he could now longer count on winning Wimbledon to save his year.

 

[1HBH-DownTheLine]

but I think it was a changing of the guard

 

[tennisaddict]

If Murray, Rafa or Stan win would it be 'Change of Guard' ?

chances of someone else other than these 4 winning is 1%

 

[Bukmeikara]

If Murray, Rafa or Stan win would it be 'Change of Guard' ?

chances of someone else other than these 4 winning is 1%

So Thiem playing 100 times RG, would win just one?! Nishikori and Tsonga also have a bigger % than 1.

 

[TripleATeam]

Anyone else feel like this year's 2017 French Open will be a huge grand slam for Djokovic. Win it and talk of his steep decline goes away. Lose and it may be a changing of the guard moment like the following moments:

2001 Wimbledon - Federer defeats Sampras - for the first time since 1993 French Open, Sampras did not hold at least one of the four majors.

2011 Australian Open - Djokovic defeats Federer - for the first time since 2003 French Open, Federer did not hold at least one of the four majors.

2015 French Open - Djokovic defeats Nadal - Nadal no longer held one of the four Grand Slams and his streak at the tournament came to an end

2017 French Open - If he loses, for the first time since 2014 French Open, Djokovic will no longer hold one of the four Grand Slams, if he loses before the final, it will be the first time since 2010 French Open and Wimbledon that he failed to reach the final in consecutive Grand Slams.

The Sampras-Djokovic comparison of changing of the guards is lacking. Djokovic held 1 major at least since 2014. 3 years. Sampras had 8 years.

 

[tennisaddict]

So Thiem playing 100 times RG, would win just one?! Nishikori and Tsonga also have a bigger % than 1.

No disrespect to these players, I doubt any of them would even make the SF

 

[papertank]

I think you're absolutely right that the French Open will be make it or break it for him. If he doesn't do well this clay season he not only won't hold any grand slams, but he may fall dangerously close to the number 3 ranking.

 

[Mazz Retic]

The question is who.
The changing of the guard seemed inevitable in retrospect from Sampras to Federer.
I can see a young gun knocking any of the big 5 out but chances of them winning are slim. If this is a changing of the guard moment then we may only see it with time.

 

[every7]

I feel like this year's French Open will offer no changing of the guard whatsoever.

It will still be great and historic, but more for reasons like Nadal reaching 10 FO titles (hopefully) and already established young clay guys continuing to do well (maybe Thiem making another SF)

There will be changing of the guard moments during the clay swing generally for sure, though. I'm thinking someone like Thiem will win a M1000 and continue to build his clay resume.

The question is who.
The changing of the guard seemed inevitable in retrospect from Sampras to Federer.
I can see a young gun knocking any of the big 5 out but chances of them winning are slim. If this is a changing of the guard moment then we may only see it with time.

I think it is fairly obvious that it is going to be Kyrgios on most surfaces. With a coach I think he can also develop an extremely effective clay game as soon as 2018 FO.

 

[BeatlesFan]

So Thiem playing 100 times RG, would win just one?!

No, Thiem playing RG 100 times wins it.... never.

 

[SinjinCooper]

There's no guard to change. Novak abdicated his post a year ago.

 

[SLD76]

Changing of the guard... to who? There's no changing of the guard If he loses. If Novak loses in a early round, just furthers the discussion of why he has declined so much so fast.

I agree,it won't be so much a changing of the guard so much as confirmation of decline

Unless of course Thiem or Zverev come thru which.....doubltful

 

[SLD76]

Well obviously Sampras losing to Federer at 2001 Wimbledon didn't send Federer to the top of the throne, but I think it was a changing of the guard, in that Sampras now longer held a Grand Slam, after kinda struggling for 3 years, "only" winning Wimbledon in 1998, 1999, and 2000, he could now longer count on winning Wimbledon to save his year.

It was sort of a changing of the guard

Federer was lauded as a junior and had high expectations (like a gasquet)

And while he had been having solid results, he hadn't had early success like Safin and Hewitt

So, him putting all that potential together in a magnificent match to beat the what..5 time defending champ?


That was a changing of the guard ...He just didn't sit on the throne for another 2 years

 

[tennis_hand]

djokovic may struggle to beat Nadal this year, if they meet in FO. Nadal has the highest chance of winning FO, given his current confidence and form.

 

[every7]

No, Thiem playing RG 100 times wins it.... never.

 

[MichaelNadal]

It was sort of a changing of the guard

Federer was lauded as a junior and had high expectations (like a gasquet)

And while he had been having solid results, he hadn't had early success like Safin and Hewitt

So, him putting all that potential together in a magnificent match to beat the what..5 time defending champ?


That was a changing of the guard ...He just didn't sit on the throne for another 2 years

How many Friscos have you had since making that your avatar?

 

[NEW_BORN]

Yes, Federer is ready to accept the baton, to usher in a new era of unprecedented dominance. ALLEZ!!

 

[donquijote]

Stevie Johnson is coming off a clay court victory and will be the surprise winner of the FO

Stevie Wonder probably has a better chance.

 

[Elektra]

This French Open, I highly doubt will be a changing of the guard. The same projected players and outcomes will possibly win this grandslam. Clay is not a popular surface, so it should benefit a certain number of players who know how to play on the dirt. The grass benefits contemporary style of play nowadays where people want to play big serve and quick points. Keep eyes open for the grass, cause the young generation plays like grass players nowadays.

 

[-NN-]

This French Open, I highly doubt will be a changing of the guard. The same projected players and outcomes will possibly win this grandslam. Clay is not a popular surface, so it should benefit a certain number of players who know how to play on the dirt. The grass benefits contemporary style of play nowadays where people want to play big serve and quick points. Keep eyes open for the grass, cause the young generation plays like grass players nowadays.

When will real men start to rise and take over the tour from these pathetic metrosexuals???

We've got utter fools like Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray ruling the tour in the last couple of years. It was a funny joke for a while. Now it isn't. We even have some old man winning Slams again because slow and relatively untalented following generations can't do anything at the top level. Now our best future prospect is currently 6'6'' and there's no precedent for such a tall player going on to become wildly successful. But at least they are real men and I know that you're a great and big fan of men who are not fake but are instead real (meaning that they are not fake and are made out of things that really exist such as fairy dust). Real men of blood, sweat and no tears. But the man of the future is a big wuss. Be careful with who you marry.

 

[Bukmeikara]

Simple stat for you guys. Since Gimeno in 1972 no one older than 30 has won the French. Djokovic, Wawrinka and Gomez were the only ones aged 29 or 30 to win it. So the top favorits this year are:

Nadal - 31
Djokovic, Murray - 30
Federer - 36
Wawrinka - 32
Tsonga, Berdych, Gasquet, Monfils - 31,32

Guys like Thiem, Nishikori and Zverev have a lot bigger chances than you think

 

[Chanwan]

Anyone else feel like this year's 2017 French Open will be a huge grand slam for Djokovic. Win it and talk of his steep decline goes away. Lose and it may be a changing of the guard moment like the following moments:

2001 Wimbledon - Federer defeats Sampras - for the first time since 1993 French Open, Sampras did not hold at least one of the four majors.

2011 Australian Open - Djokovic defeats Federer - for the first time since 2003 French Open, Federer did not hold at least one of the four majors.

2015 French Open - Djokovic defeats Nadal - Nadal no longer held one of the four Grand Slams and his streak at the tournament came to an end

2017 French Open - If he loses, for the first time since 2014 French Open, Djokovic will no longer hold one of the four Grand Slams, if he loses before the final, it will be the first time since 2010 French Open and Wimbledon that he failed to reach the final in consecutive Grand Slams.

Now that's a wild stat in and of itself. I have a feeling we're on the verge of a Djoko comeback, but let's see how the first clay Masters plays out.

Simple stat for you guys. Since Gimeno in 1972 no one older than 30 has won the French. Djokovic, Wawrinka and Gomez were the only ones aged 29 or 30 to win it. So the top favorits this year are:

Nadal - 31
Djokovic, Murray - 30
Federer - 36
Wawrinka - 32
Tsonga, Berdych, Gasquet, Monfils - 31,32

Guys like Thiem, Nishikori and Zverev have a lot bigger chances than you think

The top-10 is also easily the oldest since the early 70's these years. So is the top-100.
Thiem, Zverev, Nishikori etc. are not without chances, but collectively speaking, I wouldn't rate the under 30 players chances much higher than 20-25 % - if even that high.
Might adjust after seeing how the Masters play out.

 

[SLD76]

How many Friscos have you had since making that your avatar?

Quite a few when I was in TX last summer lol

 

[SLD76]

When will real men start to rise and take over the tour from these pathetic metrosexuals???

We've got utter fools like Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray ruling the tour in the last couple of years. It was a funny joke for a while. Now it isn't. We even have some old man winning Slams again because slow and relatively untalented following generations can't do anything at the top level. Now our best future prospect is currently 6'6'' and there's no precedent for such a tall player going on to become wildly successful. But at least they are real men and I know that you're a great and big fan of men who are not fake but are instead real (meaning that they are not fake and are made out of things that really exist such as fairy dust). Real men of blood, sweat and no tears. But the man of the future is a big wuss. Be careful with who you marry.

That you John Wayne?

 

[tenisdecente]

Not. happening.now. sorry.

Djokovic wont win it but change of guard my @$$

 

[RF-18]

He has a chance to make history again. Winning all the majors atleast twice. Upcoming FO is huge for Djokovic.

 

[donquijote]

Simple stat for you guys. Since Gimeno in 1972 no one older than 30 has won the French. Djokovic, Wawrinka and Gomez were the only ones aged 29 or 30 to win it. So the top favorits this year are:

Nadal - 31
Djokovic, Murray - 30
Federer - 36
Wawrinka - 32
Tsonga, Berdych, Gasquet, Monfils - 31,32

Guys like Thiem, Nishikori and Zverev have a lot bigger chances than you think

So you're basically saying no one over 30 won the FO since 1972 but Wawrinka and Gomez were over 30. lol

 

[Bukmeikara]

So you're basically saying no one over 30 won the FO since 1972 but Wawrinka and Gomez were over 30. lol

Over 30 is 31, nobody aged 31 has not won it since 72

 

[donquijote]

Over 30 is 31, nobody aged 31 has not won it since 72

 

[chut]

Back to AO 2010, Murray beat Nadal and Nadal was no longer a GS title holder for the 1st time since 2005. Was that a changing of the guard?
Be careful before trying to put cornerstones before you know where to put them. For now, we can only watch how everyone (but Federer) is doing on clay. We'll maybe start writing obituaries after USO but right now is way too soon to tell

 

[DjokoFan1987]

When will real men start to rise and take over the tour from these pathetic metrosexuals???

We've got utter fools like Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray ruling the tour in the last couple of years. It was a funny joke for a while. Now it isn't. We even have some old man winning Slams again because slow and relatively untalented following generations can't do anything at the top level. Now our best future prospect is currently 6'6'' and there's no precedent for such a tall player going on to become wildly successful. But at least they are real men and I know that you're a great and big fan of men who are not fake but are instead real (meaning that they are not fake and are made out of things that really exist such as fairy dust). Real men of blood, sweat and no tears. But the man of the future is a big wuss. Be careful with who you marry.

You're kidding me? You're a fool! You just said something that I don't even want to think about. How disgusting of you to just attack them like that! For the record, Novak Djokovic, as much as people may hate him, is as much of a "man" as you can get (with the possible exception of Rafael Nadal. If you've seen his matches (which I'm guessing you haven't haha), you've seen his desire, his passion, his willingness to overcome all obstacles. That sir is something I won't take lightly. Wow.

 

[1477aces]

If Murray, Rafa or Stan win would it be 'Change of Guard' ?

chances of someone else other than these 4 winning is 1%

Ok let's do a 99-1 odds bet then. I'll owe you $10 if one of those 4 wins, you ow me $990 if someone else wins.

 

[Mr Feeny]

You're kidding me? You're a fool! You just said something that I don't even want to think about. How disgusting of you to just attack them like that! For the record, Novak Djokovic, as much as people may hate him, is as much of a "man" as you can get (with the possible exception of Rafael Nadal. If you've seen his matches (which I'm guessing you haven't haha), you've seen his desire, his passion, his willingness to overcome all obstacles. That sir is something I won't take lightly. Wow.

Looked real manly taking multiple medical timeouts for a bloody toe at the US open against Stan. Everyone on this board has had serveral bloody toes playing football and I'd venture a guess that a good bunch of them have never and would have never thought of sitting aside and tending to it.
That was one of the goofiest things I've seen. The number of times I've gone home and taken off my socks to find bloody toes, only to wash it away in the shower is unfathomable and I can't be the only one here. Nobody thinks twice of it. You play through it.

Yet a professional athlete was out there crying like a little girl because of one bloody toe. Grimacing at every turn and moaning as he slid on the court. He's a great player but please save me the laughter by labelling him the second "manliest" player on tour. He's a diva.

 

[Gary Duane]

Simple stat for you guys. Since Gimeno in 1972 no one older than 30 has won the French. Djokovic, Wawrinka and Gomez were the only ones aged 29 or 30 to win it. So the top favorits this year are:

Nadal - 31
Djokovic, Murray - 30
Federer - 36
Wawrinka - 32
Tsonga, Berdych, Gasquet, Monfils - 31,32

Guys like Thiem, Nishikori and Zverev have a lot bigger chances than you think

Let's flip that around.

50 RGs in the OE. Five of them won by guys over age 30. And no one under 28 has won a major since the middle of 2015.

 

[-NN-]

You're kidding me? You're a fool! You just said something that I don't even want to think about. How disgusting of you to just attack them like that! For the record, Novak Djokovic, as much as people may hate him, is as much of a "man" as you can get (with the possible exception of Rafael Nadal. If you've seen his matches (which I'm guessing you haven't haha), you've seen his desire, his passion, his willingness to overcome all obstacles. That sir is something I won't take lightly. Wow.

There is absolutely no way that Rafael Nadal is more of a man than Novak Djokovic. I cannot take this view lightly, sir.

 

[Deleted member 716271]

I'm willing to say that if ND has a bad showing at RG, he might never be # 1 again, and might only win 1 or 2 more slams in an extended sort of swan song for the last years of his career.

I think if he makes the semis or finals and especially if he wins though, we could be in for some more dominance and numerous slams. People will be surprised IMO as I'm picking him to win. No use arguing with me this point, let's just wait and see what happens over the next month and a half

 

[Thundergod]

Back to AO 2010, Murray beat Nadal and Nadal was no longer a GS title holder for the 1st time since 2005. Was that a changing of the guard?

He simply joined the guard.

 

[Jackuar]

Changing of the guard already happened, except that it happened on 4 matches. Nick K def. Big 4 in his first match vs them.

There will be a second change of guard when A.Zverev completes his set of first win vs Big 4 + def. Nick K.

 

[mike danny]

He had one of these moments of not holding a major before 2014 RG. Was that a changing of the guard?

Hardly.

 

[Jackuar]

He had one of these moments of not holding a major before 2014 RG. Was that a changing of the guard?

Hardly.

It could've been if the next gen had grabbed it. Let's see if they do better this time.

 

[mike danny]

It could've been if the next gen had grabbed it. Let's see if they do better this time.

The next gen should have beaten Djokovic for that to happen. Instead, a guy older than Nole beat him - Stan.

 

[DerekNoleFam1]

2014 AO, Djoker defeated by Wawrinka in QF's and no longer holds a Slam.
2014 RG, Djoker loses and goes 6-7 in Major finals, it looks like he is done.
2014 Wimby - 2016 RG, Djoker wins 6 out of 8 Slams.
No, it aint over until it's over.

 

[Jackuar]

The next gen should have beaten Djokovic for that to happen. Instead, a guy older than Nole beat him - Stan.

Yes, right. It didn't happen. So for your question, "Was that a changing of guard?", the answer is No, it didn't turn out to be.

Also see my other answer. I think a change of guard moment need not always be a single history-defining-match. This era, I think its happening in phases, like Nick K defeating the Big 4 slowly but steadily. And soon A.Zverev and others to take over.

 

[mike danny]

Yes, right. It didn't happen. So for your question, "Was that a changing of guard?", the answer is No, it didn't turn out to be.

Also see my other answer. I think a change of guard moment need not always be a single history-defining-match. This era, I think its happening in phases, like Nick K defeating the Big 4 slowly but steadily. And soon A.Zverev and others to take over.

Let's see if Nick will be able to translate those victories into slam victories. Only then, I might consider it a changing of the guard.