Low Risk Theory on Fed's Future Based on Last 24 months

[Federev]

Here is my sense of what's happening to Fed and where he's going.

(This is an expansion from my post on an @smoledman thread. But I wanted Fed fans (and interested non-Fed fans) to weigh in hopefully more if they see it as it's own thread)

It's not complicated or mysterious:

Whatever that long rest did for him in 2016, it shot him to the top in early 2017 like we haven't see in years. I don't know all it entailed (borrowing Rafa's blood spinning machine, adding Lub, hours on the backhand a day, stress free 4 months with legos and cute kids,) ...but it wasn't just Novak's temp demise. It did the trick for real.

IW'17 was the very pinnacle of that rebound in terms of play. Almost peak Fed there. I really think he would have beaten ANYONE there in any shape they brought. He cut Rafa down like a coaching call against Serena - and kept the beat down up all year long even as Rafa clearly gained steam in his own recovery and Nadal assumed a convincing #1, beating anyone not named Fed, and always losing to everyone named Fed.

But since then its been a very very very slow but still steady decline for the GOAT.

Think about the air very slowly coming out of a tire as you recall Fed since his return to glory early last year

2107
AO
IW,
Miami,
Wimby,
Montreal,
USO,
Shang,
Basel,
WTF,
2018
AO,
ROTT,
IW,
MIAMI,
STUTT
Halle
Wimb
CINCI
USO...

Yeah - sure - still winning amazing stuff, and some injuries along the way, but otherwise I think it's been a pretty steady mild downward slope.

Put aside surfaces for a bit and see if you don't agree in general that WC'17 was not quite IW'17 ...and WTF '17 was not Basel and Shanghai '17 and AO'18 was not quite SW'17 and IW'18 was not quite ROTT '18 and Halle '18 was not Stutt' 18... and on and on... you get my drift.

Age is catching up pretty surely - just little by little. But it's steady and consistent. Just like Fed himself.

So - I just think that's going to continue and ... I think he'll wrap it up sometime next year. I just don't think he's going to settle for a couple of years getting Millmaned more and more.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think we'll see AO#7 or GS21 for that matter.

But really - what more could we ask for?

Its been an AMAZING last year and a half; from that 5th Set against Nadal in AO17 to a final week at #1 in Stuttgart and - even a little return to glory against Nick at Wimby.

I'm sure we'll see some flashy moments as we always have (and he's proved us wrong before). But we've never seen 37-38 Fed. And - after what we saw of him in Cincinnati this year - previously his best master - I would not him pick him as fave for any title outright anymore unless Novak, Rafa, Delpo, and maybe Cilic are out.

Sure I'd like more titles, but I'm very grateful for what we've had.

...It's funny, everyone is calling it a "new age" in tennis when all these players will be winning slams at 38 or something now. Kind of puts Fed's amazing late run in a dimmer light.

But until we see someone else doing what he's done at 35-36, I think its just safer to say he's simply doing what a "one and only" GOAT does on their last lap.

 

[Federev]

is this post too long and/or redundant/boring for anyone to care?

WAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!

 

[travlerajm]

is this post too long and/or redundant/boring for anyone to care?

WAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!

This thread will suffer a steady and slow decline in interest.

 

[Federev]

Maybe it will become good fodder for mockery?

 

[Federev]

This thread will suffer a steady and slow decline in interest.

That's actually really well done. LOL for real.

 

[Azure]

There is no doubt in my mind that regardless of the effort put in by Rafa and Fed, it was Nole's absence that brought them the slams they have. Anyone who denies this is clearly biased since everyone here is talking of a strong or a weak draw basis the presence of only one player - Nole.

Fed has been in a steady decline and will continue to decline just like Rafa. However, another good streak and absence of dangerous players in the draw can appear out of nowhere and can put him in a good position to win another one. The long breaks are not helping him.

 

[FiReFTW]

There is no doubt in my mind that regardless of the effort put in by Rafa and Fed, it was Nole's absence that brought them the slams they have. Anyone who denies this is clearly biased since everyone here is talking of a strong or a weak draw basis the presence of only one player - Nole.

Fed has been in a steady decline and will continue to decline just like Rafa. However, another good streak and absence of dangerous players in the draw can appear out of nowhere and can put him in a good position to win another one. The long breaks are not helping him.

No its not, Fed in the first half of 2017 (apart from AO where he was still gathering his form throughout the tournament) played the best tennis he has played since 2012 or even prior to 2012 actually.
His baseline game was plain scary at times, his baseline game was nowhere NEAR this level since at least 2012.
You guys and Djokovic fanboys can theorize all you want, but those are facts and you only need to look at matches and compare to see the difference in consistency and power off both wings from the baseline from first half of 2017 and before.

 

[CYGS]

Easy:

Spoiler

Novak is GOAT

 

[weakera]

Bottom line is Fed can definitely win more titles but now needs favorable circumstances (draw, conditions) to do it.

 

[Azure]

No its not, Fed in the first half of 2017 (apart from AO where he was still gathering his form throughout the tournament) played the best tennis he has played since 2012 or even prior to 2012 actually.
His baseline game was plain scary at times, his baseline game was nowhere NEAR this level since at least 2012.
You guys and Djokovic fanboys can theorize all you want, but those are facts and you only need to look at matches and compare to see the difference in consistency and power off both wings from the baseline from first half of 2017 and before.

First, I am a Rafa fan so all my so called bias is out of the window.

Second, Federer was playing great in '15. One needs to only look at his form against Murray in the semis of Wimbledon. We all know the outcome in the finals.

Third, while Fed played great in '17, as did Rafa, I cannot be blind to the fact that Novak was AWOL.

 

[FiReFTW]

First, I am a Rafa fan so all my so called bias is out of the window.

Second, Federer was playing great in '15. One needs to only look at his form against Murray in the semis of Wimbledon. We all know the outcome in the finals.

Third, while Fed played great in '17, as did Rafa, I cannot be blind to the fact that Novak was AWOL.

Fed's serve was great in 2014 and 2015, but his baseline game was not close to 2017 level, he beat Murray by serving like a madman.

 

[Azure]

Fed's serve was great in 2014 and 2015, but his baseline game was not close to 2017 level, he beat Murray by serving like a madman.

A player ages a lot in 3-4 years. I cannot understand how you can say that Federer's game in '17 was better than may be even before '12. Look at Rafa, the guy was a monster baseliner. He has clearly lost a step or two. 2017 may be more successful years for these two greats but they are not better players than they were.

 

[FiReFTW]

A player ages a lot in 3-4 years. I cannot understand how you can say that Federer's game in '17 was better than may be even before '12. Look at Rafa, the guy was a monster baseliner. He has clearly lost a step or two. 2017 may be more successful years for these two greats but they are not better players than they were.

I never said Fed or Nadal are better than 2012 or 2007, thats madness, they clearly declined in many areas, specially movement, agility, reflexes etc...

Im just saying that in 2014 and 2015 after Fed changed his racquet, his baseline game was horrible, and his only saving grace was an amazing serve that was probably better than 2017 specially in some matches like against Murray.

But in 2017 (first half) after his 6 month break, he obviously worked hard in practice on his baseline game and got really acquanted and proficient with the new racquet with it, and his baseline game from his FH and BH was much more dangerous than it was in 2014 and 2015.
I said the last time his baseline game looked so effective was probably 2012 or so.

In 2014 and 2015 he really had a very inconsistent baseline game, still getting used to his racquet, but in 2017 it was clearly extremely dangerous as witnessed here:

 

[Azure]

I never said Fed or Nadal are better than 2012 or 2007, thats madness, they clearly declined in many areas, specially movement, agility, reflexes etc...

Im just saying that in 2014 and 2015 after Fed changed his racquet, his baseline game was horrible, and his only saving grace was an amazing serve that was probably better than 2017 specially in some matches like against Murray.

But in 2017 (first half) after his 6 month break, he obviously worked hard in practice on his baseline game and got really acquanted and proficient with the new racquet with it, and his baseline game from his FH and BH was much more dangerous than it was in 2014 and 2015.
I said the last time his baseline game looked so effective was probably 2012 or so.

In 2014 and 2015 he really had a very inconsistent baseline game, still getting used to his racquet, but in 2017 it was clearly extremely dangerous as witnessed here:

Baseline game is largely dictated by movement. Racket change, training...all that he did, to his credit brought him 3 more slams and Rafa at least 2 more. Their movement was nothing like what I have seen from them many many times in their younger days. So many balls that these guys could get to, they did not. Movement is key for setting up a shot. Racket comes next. First it is the legs. These two made the best of the absence of Novak and kudos to them. I don't want another dominance of Novak but it seems like it's going to happen again but if that is what is going to happen, I can only tip my hat.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Federer's decline has been apparent for nearly a decade now, so what the OP was saying is that this second (more like third) wind will gradually disappear, in line with this overall development.

The interesting question is whether Federer can muster another physical and mental recovery for what would be his last big surge, or have we witnessed that already.

Physically he doesn't need another six months off, so, whatever is left in the tank there should not be a problem relatively speaking.

The mental side is more interesting.

He gets motivated by records and opponents, but there is only so much that can motivate you, when there are obstacles as big as age and the sense of accomplishment.

He got the job done, when he had to prove that he might have been faced with weak opposition and thus reigned in a weaker times, when he reached that #1 spot at Wimbledon 2012.

He made his point, when he switched equipment to adapt, proving what was on the minds of many people correct: that it was a factor in his demise against younger ATGs.

And, ultimately, he dealt with his nemesis, giving a whole new context to various factors that played a role in their rivalry.

So, the question is, is there a new, bigger challenge to raise to?

I don't think that battling yet another "next gen" is it. The difference in years is already too big for that.

So, the only right answer to that question HAS to be: Novak Djokovic.

 

[Chanwan]

There is no doubt in my mind that regardless of the effort put in by Rafa and Fed, it was Nole's absence that brought them the slams they have. Anyone who denies this is clearly biased since everyone here is talking of a strong or a weak draw basis the presence of only one player - Nole.

Fed has been in a steady decline and will continue to decline just like Rafa. However, another good streak and absence of dangerous players in the draw can appear out of nowhere and can put him in a good position to win another one. The long breaks are not helping him.

Bold is simply not true.
Why can't it be both? Needless to say, a healthy and motivated Novak would have won some in the Fedal renaissance. But they stepped up too and now Novak is also benefitting from Fed being down and Rafa being injured

 

[tacou]

Whether it is Fed, Rafa, or the Williams, the Tokyo Olympics can't be forgotten. Fed especially is a lock for Switzerland still. I think he'll try to play that event barring a serious injury or downturn in results.

 

[mike danny]

First, I am a Rafa fan so all my so called bias is out of the window.

Second, Federer was playing great in '15. One needs to only look at his form against Murray in the semis of Wimbledon. We all know the outcome in the finals.

Third, while Fed played great in '17, as did Rafa, I cannot be blind to the fact that Novak was AWOL.

Then don't be blind to the fact that Novak also benefitted during his 4 in a row run.

 

[Red Rick]

Then don't be blind to the fact that Novak also benefitted during his 4 in a row run.

That ***** #2 and ***** #3 weren't there? Jeez I wonder how that possibly could've ended.

Not even that, he beat Fed 3 times in consecutive Slams during the NCYGS. Murray twice.

 

[Plamen1234]

Bold is simply not true.
Why can't it be both? Needless to say, a healthy and motivated Novak would have won some in the Fedal renaissance. But they stepped up too and now Novak is also benefitting from Fed being down and Rafa being injured

Exactly.Federer form havent been good in the second half of 2018 and Nadal was playing below his level at US Open.So Djokovic is benefiting from this but I dont see a lot of people saying it.I wonder why.

 

[mike danny]

That ***** #2 and ***** #3 weren't there? Jeez I wonder how that possibly could've ended.

How about the absence of a good Nadal on clay and he absence of Wawrinka?

 

[tenisdecente]

Then don't be blind to the fact that Novak also benefitted during his 4 in a row run.

You are asking too much I guess

 

[EloQuent]

I'm not ready to write off a guy who won a slam this year and reached the final of a masters just a few weeks ago. His form can improve, he can get luck of the draw, who knows. Still a top ten player for a few more years.

 

[Sentinel]

Bottom line is Fed can definitely win more titles but now needs favorable circumstances (draw, conditions) to do it.

And your boy doesn't ?

 

[weakera]

And your boy doesn't ?

No he doesn't. He can bulldoze through Roland Garros under the worst of circumstances and nearly ripped past Delpo and Djoko in consecutive grass matches. He could definitely use good circumstances, everyone can, but he can win with a tough draw or at any slam.

 

[mike danny]

No he doesn't. He can bulldoze through Roland Garros under the worst of circumstances and nearly ripped past Delpo and Djoko in consecutive grass matches. He could definitely use good circumstances, everyone can, but he can win with a tough draw or at any slam.

It's a shame he hasn't done it in 4 years.

 

[Sentinel]

No he doesn't. He can bulldoze through Roland Garros under the worst of circumstances and nearly ripped past Delpo and Djoko in consecutive grass matches. He could definitely use good circumstances, everyone can, but he can win with a tough draw or at any slam.

Rain and roof, bro.

 

[weakera]

Rain and roof, bro.

lol I never said he can do it under ANY difficult circumstances but he can do it under difficult circumstances nonetheless. If you're a virtual point away from beating Nole at Wimbledon you "can" win Wimbledon.

 

[weakera]

It's a shame he hasn't done it in 4 years.

Rafa has lost 1 set at RG in two years, safe to say no circumstances on earth could have stopped him even if he made it look easy.

 

[weakera]

Rafa is #1 in the world, SF or better in 6 of the last 8 slams, QF or better in every slam this year but he "NEEDS" favorable circumstances to win a slam?

By this definition EVERYONE needs favorable circumstances to win a slam lol

 

[Steve0904]

Age may have finally caught up to Federer and if so no amount of hypothesizing about anything will help him. His schedule and how many tournaments he plays will not matter one single bit.

That said, I wouldn't draw the curtain on him until his career is over, or at least until I see his level/results at AO and Wimbledon next year. Lest we forget, he actually won one of the four slams this year, and only looked vulnerable against a redlining Cilic. Then at Wimbledon he was either the 1st or 2nd favourite (at some point mid tournament after Novak) to win there, and really should've beaten Anderson. I'd be more worried if he was making the QF's and getting creamed by guys like Anderson, but he had plenty of chances to win that match.

So in summation, if his post Wimbledon form is here to stay then he's screwed, his schedule won't matter, and he'll never win another slam, but if it's not then he's in with a shot at the AO and Wimbledon, even if he'll never be the favourite at either one again.

 

[Azure]

Then don't be blind to the fact that Novak also benefitted during his 4 in a row run.

I am not but that was not the topic in question.

 

[Azure]

Bold is simply not true.
Why can't it be both? Needless to say, a healthy and motivated Novak would have won some in the Fedal renaissance. But they stepped up too and now Novak is also benefitting from Fed being down and Rafa being injured

It is both. I have credited both with training harder and bringing changes but I can't deny that without Novak they simply had it easier.

 

[Xavier G]

The time has to come when Fed has won his last Slam. We might have reached that point, who knows. It does look like a decline this year, but he still won a Slam and he's surprised us all before though, so I won't rule him out ever.

 

[mike danny]

Rafa is #1 in the world, SF or better in 6 of the last 8 slams, QF or better in every slam this year but he "NEEDS" favorable circumstances to win a slam?

By this definition EVERYONE needs favorable circumstances to win a slam lol

Yes, in one way or another, everyone needs favorable circumstances to win a slam.

 

[Chanwan]

It is both. I have credited both with training harder and bringing changes but I can't deny that without Novak they simply had it easier.

I think most people agree with that. Just as Novak has had it easier in parts of his reign (2014 onwards)

 

[Federev]

2017 may be more successful years for these two greats but they are not better players than they were.

I don't think early 2017 was Peak Roger, but it was closer than we'd seen in a long time. Pretty much everyone at the top who analyzed Fed's game upon his return (culminating in IW) noticed two things obviously different and better (wether better than 2012 I don't know):

1. Fed was even more aggressive, taking the ball even earlier off the bounce (successfully) and closer to the baseline than before.
2. His backhand was revamped and went from his achilles heal to a potent weapon shutting down (for a spell) any real exploitable weakness in his game.

Ask Nadal about either of those 2017 features when he's being candid and I'm sure he would add his consent to all the commentators.

As said in the OP, these qualities have not remained as robust as they were. As Fed's age has sadly not remained the same either.

We'll never "for sure" but I would have loved to have seen Fedovic at IW with a better Nole. Fed had given Novak a lot of trouble in BO3 before his injury (2014-15) and I think his form in 2017 would have been well enough to handle Novak.

But we'll never know. Novak could not make the date.

 

[Federev]

I never said Fed or Nadal are better than 2012 or 2007, thats madness, they clearly declined in many areas, specially movement, agility, reflexes etc...

Im just saying that in 2014 and 2015 after Fed changed his racquet, his baseline game was horrible, and his only saving grace was an amazing serve that was probably better than 2017 specially in some matches like against Murray.

But in 2017 (first half) after his 6 month break, he obviously worked hard in practice on his baseline game and got really acquanted and proficient with the new racquet with it, and his baseline game from his FH and BH was much more dangerous than it was in 2014 and 2015.
I said the last time his baseline game looked so effective was probably 2012 or so.

In 2014 and 2015 he really had a very inconsistent baseline game, still getting used to his racquet, but in 2017 it was clearly extremely dangerous as witnessed here:

THIS. And his backhand was downright scary. Had not seen that backhand since peak.

 

[Federev]

Bold is simply not true.
Why can't it be both? Needless to say, a healthy and motivated Novak would have won some in the Fedal renaissance. But they stepped up too and now Novak is also benefitting from Fed being down and Rafa being injured

Your wise, balanced, and mature perspective is simply too grown up for this forum.

You must be one of the ones the Ancients called an....

..."adult".

You should never have come.

LEAVE NOW BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!!!