Predicting the Nationals winner 18 & over 3.0 men and women - ESL teams decimated

[schmke]

I posted my predictions for the 18 & Over 3.0 men and women and the favorites appear to be New England, *******, Intermountain, and Pacific . NW for the men, and Florida, Southern Cal, Hawaii, and Missouri Valley for the women.

But in doing my simulations and predictions, I saw once again that some teams from early start leagues had bumped up players allowed to play through Sectionals and are now not eligible for Nationals making them entirely different teams. The Southern women lost 8 players and just barely had enough to still go, the Southern men lost 7 players, and the Southwest women lost 5.

This dramatically changes the simulation and prediction for each event, and I guess is good for the opponents who don't have to play the ringer teams/players, but also tough on the teams beaten at Sectionals and perhaps even Districts/States that may have been a stronger team using a National eligibility rules.

 

[kevrol]

http://computerratings.blogspot.com/2018/10/southern-and-others-bit-by-nationals.html

 

[CHtennis]

Yeah this seems nuts to me. Why would Southern want it this way? You get to play through sectionals but then your team is drastically weakened to the point where it is not really even the same team.

 

[schmke]

Yeah this seems nuts to me. Why would Southern want it this way? You get to play through sectionals but then your team is drastically weakened to the point where it is not really even the same team.

From what I've heard, Southern considers winning Sectionals a bigger deal than Nationals, and so structures their rules such that teams, ESL or not, get to play through Sectionals as is, Nationals eligibility rules be damned. I guess that is nice for the teams to not be broken up and get to prioritize the trip to Sectionals, but it is really tough for a 3.0 team formed in March 2018 to have to play a team at Sectionals in July/August from say Georgia where their 2018 season started in May 2017 and has players that were 3.0s then, but are now solid 3.5s and perhaps some even threatening to be 4.0s now 15 months later.

 

[jacob22]

PNW women are going to take the 3.0 title I believe.

 

[jacob22]

Hawaii, Mo Valley both 0-2 today. Florida and SoCal 2-0 along with Caribbean, PNW, NorCal, and Intermountain. Most of these undefeated will be facing each other tomorrow. I'm guessing the top 4 will end up being the winner of Intermountain vs Florida, winner of Caribbean vs SoCal, winner of NorCal vs PNW, and best remaining 1 loss team.

 

[jacob22]

Intermountain and Norcal went 4-0 with a 5 way tie for 3rd. Caribbean and So Cal take the tiebreakers on match wins. PNW 5th, out of the semis despite beating Caribbean but not enough match wins. Intermountain had an easy road with 3 of their 4 opponents going 0-4. Not a fan of the new format.