Sets dropped by Big3 before playing each other

[Lew II]

Sets dropped before playing each other:

FEDERER VS DJOKOVIC

2007 AO - Federer 0, Djokovic 1
2007 UO - Federer 2, Djokovic 3
2008 AO - Federer 2, Djokovic 0
2008 UO - Federer 2, Djokovic 4
2009 UO - Federer 2, Djokovic 2
2010 UO - Federer 0, Djokovic 2
2011 AO - Federer 3, Djokovic 1
2011 RG - Federer 0, Djokovic 1
2011 UO - Federer 1, Djokovic 1
2012 RG - Federer 5, Djokovic 4
2012 WI - Federer 3, Djokovic 1
2014 WI - Federer 1, Djokovic 4
2015 WI - Federer 1, Djokovic 2
2015 UO - Federer 0, Djokovic 2
2016 AO - Federer 1, Djokovic 2
2019 WI - Federer 3, Djokovic 2
2020 AO - Federer 5, Djokovic 1

Total sets dropped: Federer 31, Djokovic 33

NADAL VS DJOKOVIC

2006 RG - Nadal 2, Djokovic 2
2007 RG - Nadal 0, Djokovic 3
2007 WI - Nadal 4, Djokovic 5
2008 RG - Nadal 0, Djokovic 1
2010 UO - Nadal 0, Djokovic 4
2011 WI - Nadal 3, Djokovic 3
2011 UO - Nadal 1, Djokovic 3
2012 AO - Nadal 2, Djokovic 3
2012 RG - Nadal 0, Djokovic 4
2013 RG - Nadal 2, Djokovic 1
2013 UO - Nadal 1, Djokovic 3
2014 RG - Nadal 1, Djokovic 2
2015 RG - Nadal 1, Djokovic 0
2018 WI - Nadal 2, Djokovic 2
2019 AO - Nadal 0, Djokovic 2

Total sets dropped: Nadal 19, Djokovic 38

FEDERER VS NADAL

2005 RG - Federer 0, Nadal 1
2006 RG - Federer 2, Nadal 2
2006 WI - Federer 0, Nadal 2
2007 WI - Federer 1, Nadal 4
2007 RG - Federer 1, Nadal 0
2008 RG - Federer 3, Nadal 0
2008 WI - Federer 0, Nadal 1
2009 AO - Federer 2, Nadal 2
2011 RG - Federer 1, Nadal 2
2012 AO - Federer 0, Nadal 1
2014 AO - Federer 1, Nadal 1
2017 AO - Federer 5, Nadal 5
2019 RG - Federer 1, Nadal 1
2019 WI - Federer 2, Nadal 1

Total sets dropped: Federer 19, Nadal 23

 

[Lew II]

So Federer dropped less sets against both, and Djokovic dropped more sets against both. So this means that Federer had a form advantage while Djokovic had a form disadvantage.

 

[Red Rick]

Uuh I think it means Djokovic simply has more minor brainfarts in early rounds

 

[TripleATeam]

Could this not be a good thing for Federer? It seems like this is saying Djokovic was less consistent generally through his career and won fewer sets against lower-ranked opponents, while Federer didn't.

The statistic doesn't really mean anything, it's all how you interpret it.

 

[Lew II]

Uuh I think it means Djokovic simply has more minor brainfarts in early rounds

False. He's the one who drops the least sets instead, Federer the most.

Sets won before the semis in their career:

Djokovic 732/877 (83.47%)
Nadal 696/835 (83.35%)
Federer 953/1153 (82.66%)

 

[Krish872007]

I draw the following conclusions

- Indicator of good form
- Indicator of "weaker" or more out-of-form opponents

You can believe either of the above depending on your agenda or which "theory" of tennis you subscribe to.
But above all, the key conclusion for me is:

- Only performance on the day matters. And anyone could beat anyone on any given day.

 

[Lew II]

I draw the following conclusions

- Indicator of good form
- Indicator of "weaker" or more out-of-form opponents

You can believe either of the above depending on your agenda or which "theory" of tennis you subscribe to.
But above all, the key conclusion for me is:

- Only performance on the day matters. And anyone could beat anyone on any given day.

Not everyone has the same chances though.

 

[junior74]

Fewer players upset Federer, because he mostly dictates his matches. Opponents have better chances against Djokovic than against Federer, because Djokovic to a lesser degree takes the racquet out of their hands, more rhythmic tennis, which most players prefer. My 2 cents.

 

[Breakpointerer]

I don't think this necessarily means what you think it means.

 

[Lew II]

Fewer players upset Federer, because he mostly dictates his matches. Opponents have better chances against Djokovic than against Federer, because Djokovic to a lesser degree takes the racquet out of their hands, more rhythmic tennis, which most players prefer. My 2 cents.

See post #5.

 

[Silverbullet96]

So Federer dropped less sets against both, and Djokovic dropped more sets against both. So this means that Federer had a form advantage while Djokovic had a form disadvantage.

So struggling more in earlier rounds mostly because of incompetence is a 'disadvantage' now ?

 

[Lew II]

So struggling more in earlier rounds because of incompetence (other reasons being injuries, etc.), is a 'disadvantage' now ?

Considering that in his career Djokovic lost less sets than Fedal, yes. It was a form disadvantage.

 

[Silverbullet96]

Considering that in his career Djokovic lost less sets than Fedal, yes. It was a form disadvantage.

What are you talking about right now ?
Career sets lost before semis or sets lost before meeting the other Big 3 ? My previous post was about you saying Djokovic on average having a 'form disadvantage' against Big 3 because he lost more sets coming into the match.

 

[Red Rick]

False. He's the one who drops the least sets instead, Federer the most.

Sets won before the semis in their career:

Djokovic 732/877 (83.47%)
Nadal 696/835 (83.35%)
Federer 953/1153 (82.66%)

P value?

 

[junior74]

I don't think this necessarily means what you think it means.

I don't even know what he wants it to mean

 

[Breakpointerer]

I don't even know what he wants it to mean

I think it's Fed/Ned in peak form when they face him, Djoko in worse form, Djoko still wins. Or something similar.

 

[junior74]

I think it's Fed/Ned in peak form when they face him, Djoko in worse form, Djoko still wins. Or something similar.

Exhibits all over the place

 

[TearTheRoofOff]

It's always odd to look at 'form' as being antithetical to how good a player is. If we are to assume the correlation as you have, it looks like at some of Djoker's absolute peak slam showings he was in 'worse form' than Federer, which is an odd take. He lost more sets so he was worse which means he was better(er) for beating a better player? Obviously the difference wasn't static for the encounters; is it the increase in form we're lauding here? It's a mess.

Besides, there is very rarely a huge disparity between the players in each instance; I only count 7 individual entries where the difference in sets lost is 3 or more (across all three matchups). One bad day can account for 2 sets (like Nadal's blip against Isner or Djoker's against Anderson). Totalling the sets lost obfuscates this by increasing the absolute difference in the values. Looking at Federer vs Djoker, 30 vs 34 is a difference of 4; if we average that difference over the whole 17 matches, we get under a quarter of a set difference on average per slam. I don't really see how this tells us much. Their matches have often been about as close as you might predict, even from this very dodgy correlation. Djoker getting the upper hand in the H2H is largely due to some razor fine margins falling one way (40-15 is about as close as it gets (x3))

Finally, as @metsman has talked about in other threads, tennis is about matchups and the dynamics between the specific players is complicated. Nadal was an absolutely Kryptonite matchup for Fed (which obviously isn't excusing Fed, per se), and funnily enough Fed managed to 4 set him at 37 years old whilst in 'poorer form'. There just isn't a substantial or consistent story here as far as I can see.

 

[Lew II]

Sets lost before their last 6 matches:

Djokovic 13, Federer 11

Who would have guessed a 6-0 score if I told you Federer dropped less sets in the tournament?

 

[beard]

P value?

<0.0001

 

[HetTheGreaterer]

2006 RG - Nadal 2, Djokovic 2

Nadal didn't drop a set in 2006-2007-2008 RG editions apart from the 2006-2007 finals with roger federer

 

[Lew II]

Nadal didn't drop a set in 2006-2007-2008 RG editions apart from the 2006-2007 finals with roger federer

In 2006 he dropped a set each to Hewitt and Mathieu.

 

[Third Serve]

In 2006 he dropped a set each to Hewitt and Mathieu.

That second match was epic, though. One of the finest match performances I've seen from a player of Mathieu's caliber.

 

[NatF]

That second match was epic, though. One of the finest match performances I've seen from a player of Mathieu's caliber.

I watched the whole thing recently, the guy was CLUBBING the ball. It was like Soderling except three years earlier. Hewitt played pretty well too, I often think Hewitt showed the prototype gameplan for Djokovic to beat Nadal e.g. taking the ball earlier with angle and depth into the Nadal forehand. Wasn't able to keep it going for more than a couple of sets though. I find Nadal's 2006 FO win to be a bit underrated, largely because of some tough opponents in early rounds.

 

[Third Serve]

I watched the whole thing recently, the guy was CLUBBING the ball. It was like Soderling except three years earlier. Hewitt played pretty well too, I often think Hewitt showed the prototype gameplan for Djokovic to beat Nadal e.g. taking the ball earlier with angle and depth into the Nadal forehand. Wasn't able to keep it going for more than a couple of sets though. I find Nadal's 2006 FO win to be a bit underrated, largely because of some tough opponents in early rounds.

Yeah. Certainly, Nadal wasn't at the level of, say, his 2007, 2008, or 2012 self, but that tournament was definitely one of his tougher roads to an RG title.

 

[JaoSousa]

I don't think this necessarily means what you think it means.

My response to every single one of his threads...

 

[NoleFam]

2010 UO - Nadal 0, Djokovic 4
2011 UO - Nadal 1, Djokovic 3
2013 UO - Nadal 1, Djokovic 3

Sets lost
Nadal 2, Djokovic 10

...but Nadal has a 2-1 head to head at the USO...

 

[Lew II]

Wins over 0/1 sets dropping Big3:

Djokovic, Nadal 9
Federer 4

 

[travlerajm]

False. He's the one who drops the least sets instead, Federer the most.

Sets won before the semis in their career:

Djokovic 732/877 (83.47%)
Nadal 696/835 (83.35%)
Federer 953/1153 (82.66%)

What was Federer’s record for % sets won before the semi’s through age 32?

 

[MeatTornado]

Do you go through and look at the scores of every single match or is this already pre-tabulated somewhere?

 

[Dekalog12]

False. He's the one who drops the least sets instead, Federer the most.

Sets won before the semis in their career:

Djokovic 732/877 (83.47%)
Nadal 696/835 (83.35%)
Federer 953/1153 (82.66%)

Fed goes down because of his pre-2003 stats.

Starting from when they first made their first semifinal at a grandslam - Djokovic (counting from RG 2007) has won 676/786 or 86.01% of sets before semifinal stage and Federer (counting from Wimbledon 2003) has won 858/994 or 86.32%

Only counting slams where they have atleast made the semifinals - Djokovic has won 536/596 or 89.93% while Federer has won 90.75%

 

[Lew II]

Fed goes down because of his pre-2003 stats.

Starting from when they first made their first semifinal at a grandslam - Djokovic (counting from RG 2007) has won 676/786 or 86.01% of sets before semifinal stage and Federer (counting from Wimbledon 2003) has won 858/994 or 86.32%

Only counting slams where they have atleast made the semifinals - Djokovic has won 536/596 or 89.93% while Federer has won 90.75%

Basically equal. My point stands.

What about Nadal?

 

[Dekalog12]

Basically equal. My point stands.

What about Nadal?

BTW you flipped Federer and Djokovic's RG 2012 numbers. Its Federer 5 and Djokovic 4. So the final tally is Fed 31, Novak 33........More or less the same

Edit - Nadal's is 667/785 or 84.97% for the first stat (the worst of the three) and 482/526 or 91.63% for the second stat (the best of the three)

 

[RelentlessAttack]

I watched the whole thing recently, the guy was CLUBBING the ball. It was like Soderling except three years earlier. Hewitt played pretty well too, I often think Hewitt showed the prototype gameplan for Djokovic to beat Nadal e.g. taking the ball earlier with angle and depth into the Nadal forehand. Wasn't able to keep it going for more than a couple of sets though. I find Nadal's 2006 FO win to be a bit underrated, largely because of some tough opponents in early rounds.

At AO08, Djokovic and Tipsy talked about studying Nalby 07’s indoor season tactics

 

[nolefam_2024]

So Federer dropped less sets against both, and Djokovic dropped more sets against both. So this means that Federer had a form advantage while Djokovic had a form disadvantage.

No


Federer and Djokovic are quite even. But Nadal dropped least sets as most of the matches were at RG especially vs Djokovic. Nadal had barely lost sets at RG while he has lost many sets in AO but Djokovic lost least sets in AO and they met each other 2 times.

 

[Neptune]

Impressive thread, @Lew II.

This statistical evidence strongly suggests that Slam draws are heavily rigged against Nole, with Rafa benefiting the most!

 

[SonnyT]

The Nadal-Djokovic disparity reflects the RG preponderance on their matchup.

The rough Federer-Djokovic equality justly reflected the confidence Federer carried into their matches.