Which is more likely, peak Djokovic defeating peak Federer at Wimbledon or peak Djokovic defeating peak Nadal at Roland Garros?

[Megafanoftennis100]

Countless tennis fans emphasise how incredibly dominant Nadal has been on clay, particularly at Roland Garros, and he is unequivocally the greatest clay courter of all time.
At the same time, many tennis fans say that peak Djokovic stands no chance against peak Federer on grass, and they use this power-scaling method which implies that because post-prime Federer gave prime Djokovic very close matches at Wimbledon, and peak pre-2011 Federer is "significantly" better than the Federer that Djokovic faced at Wimbledon, that automatically means that 2003-2009 Federer would straight set Djokovic on grass with ease.
But then at the same time, those fans claim that Federer on grass is nowhere near as dominant as Nadal on clay, and apprently, peak Djokovic did pose major challenges to peak Nadal on clay on several occasions, even though clay is by far Djokovic's worst surface.
So which outcome seems more likely, peak Federer on grass losing to peak Djokovic or peak Nadal on clay losing to peak Djokovic?

 

[RS]

Let's say the former happens 3/10 and the later happens 0/10

 

[Milanez82]

We had peak Djokovic taking peak Nadal to 5 on Rolland Garros and then Nadal hit something like 23 winners in that 5th set to win it so we already know what's historically less likely since Djokovic wasn't going to reach some imaginary higher level.

 

[fedfan24]

Former is like 1/10. Peak Nadal djokovic goes 0/10.

 

[SonnyT]

Which is more likely, peak Federer or peak Nadal defeating peak Djokovic at Laver Arena? Federer is stronger physically on HC, but weaker mentally than Nadal!

 

[Megafanoftennis100]

Let's say the former happens 3/10 and the later happens 0/10

I wouldn't necessarily say 0/10 lol. Did you watch the 2013 Roland Garros semi-final match? Both players were in their prime (in fact, Nadal was having one of the best seasons of his career), and Nadal barely won 9-7 in the 5th set.
Djokovic also put up a decent fight in Roland Garros 2012.
Maybe 2-3/10 would be more likely.
As for peak Federer vs peak Djokovic at Wimbledon, I do understand that their 3-1 H2H in no way accurately answers this, because all those matches took place outside of Federer's peak. Nonetheless, I think that the best versions of Djokovic that stand a chance against 2003-2009 Federer on grass would be his 2011 and 2015 forms, possibly even 2014. Although his 2012, 2013 and 2016 forms would get slaughtered though.
In 2011, he was playing super aggressively and the way he dismantled Nadal was really something to behold. I think Federer, even at his peak, would have encountered difficulties handling such an aggressive player on grass. Not to mention that Djokovic's elite returns would be enough to neutralize Federer's serves, making it harder for the latter to earn free points or hold his serve as easily as he did against Nadal.
In 2015, Djokovic was a more complete player with better serves and net game. His performance in the final was nearly flawless - his returns and groundstrokes, whilst not exactly on his 2011 level, were still exceptionally good. But then considering how monstrous prime Federer's forehand was back then, Djokovic would really have to exert himself to stay in rallies with prime Fed and sprint really frequently to retrieve shots like his life depends on it (which I am sure he can, considering his form in the 2015 final).
Also, not many people acknowledge this but in 2012, Djokovic learned of his grandfather's death only a couple of months before entering Wimbledon, and surely as anyone else would be, he was emotionally devastated (even more than Fed was after losing the Wimbledon 2019 final for real). And honestly, how can you expect any athlete, however good they are, to perform at their best if their family member literally passes away not long before they participate in a tournament? The fact that he even made it to the semi-finals of Wimbledon is actually very impressive. Pete Sampras had a somewhat similar experience in 1996 when he learned of his coach's demise before facing Krajicek in the quarters. As incredible as Krajicek was in that match, Sampras was visibly affected by his coach's demise and you could tell that he wasn't mentally fully prepared for the match. Honestly, had Sampras's coach not died, Krajicek would have been slamless and Sampras would have held the record for winning 8 consecutive Wimbledon titles.
In 2013, Djokovic was exhausted from his match against Del Potro in the semis, combined with the fact that Murray basically had the entire stadium backing him throughout the match. I am not saying that Djokovic would have won the final without those disadvantages, but surely, he could have put up a much better fight.
In 2014, Djokovic faced a still very capable Federer and was very close to finishing him in 4 sets had he not choked badly in the 4th set. (I mean, going from 5-2 up to 5-7 down seems seriously unprecedented for an ATG player).
And remember, prime Federer also took 4 sets to beat players at Wimbledon, who were of the same caliber as 2014 Federer, e.g. 2005 Roddick and 2006 Nadal.
Honeslty, I think that a match between peak Fed and peak Djokovic would be closer than most people think, but Federer still gets the edge, so I would say 4/10 for peak Djokovic.

 

[Megafanoftennis100]

Which is more likely, peak Federer or peak Nadal defeating peak Djokovic at Laver Arena? Federer is stronger physically on HC, but weaker mentally than Nadal!

This isn't hypothetical. We have the matches in history. Look at the 2011 AO semi-final match between Federer and Djokovic and compare that to the 2012 AO final between Nadal and Djokovic, and there you have your answer.
2011 was still peak Federer, although it was definitely the final stage. He was only 29 years old in 2011 AO and was the defending champion. Djokovic defeated him in straight sets.
In 2012, Nadal and Djokovic went to a very close 5-setter.

 

[The Blond Blur]

 

[nolefam_2024]

Peak Djokovic can definitively beat Peak Federer at Wimbledon. If Nadal can Nole will. Federer is no unbeatable fellow in Wimbledon.

But Nadal at RG is looking straight at defeat. Maybe Djokovic gets 1/10 chance to beat Nadal.

 

[Megafanoftennis100]

Peak Djokovic can definitively beat Peak Federer at Wimbledon. If Nadal can Nole will. Federer is no unbeatable fellow in Wimbledon.

But Nadal at RG is looking straight at defeat. Maybe Djokovic gets 1/10 chance to beat Nadal.

Nadal only beat peak Fed at Wimbledon because of the significant match-up advantage he has over Fed. Djokovic has no such advantage. In fact, if anything, Federer is a bad match-up for Djokovic, which is why he was able to defeat peak Djokovic a handful of times despite not being in his prime himself.
Also, does barely winning 9-7 in the 5th set (largely thanks to your opponent throwing away a crucial opportunity by failing to put away the easiest smash) sound like 1/10 chance to you? lol

 

[nolefam_2024]

Nadal only beat peak Fed at Wimbledon because of the significant match-up advantage he has over Fed. Djokovic has no such advantage. In fact, if anything, Federer is a bad match-up for Djokovic, which is why he was able to defeat peak Djokovic a handful of times despite not being in his prime himself.
Also, does barely winning 9-7 in the 5th set (largely thanks to your opponent throwing away a crucial opportunity by failing to put away the easiest smash) sound like 1/10 chance to you? lol

He is not. Nole wins H2H.
Nole won 3-1 vs Federer in Wimbledon. Peak prime is all ********.

 

[Megafanoftennis100]

He is not. Nole wins H2H.
Nole won 3-1 vs Federer in Wimbledon. Peak prime is all ********.

But didn't the 4 matches take place after Federer's prime years on grass?
Also, if peak prime is all "********" as you claim, then did Nadal play as well in 2015 as he did in 2010? Or Djokovic in 2017 as good as in 2015?
Even as a Djokovic fan myself, I still think it would be too extreme to call Federer from 2014, 2015 and 2019 "prime" Fed. Maybe 2012, yes, but the later years, no.

 

[nolefam_2024]

But didn't the 4 matches take place after Federer's prime years on grass?
Also, if peak prime is all "********" as you claim, then did Nadal play as well in 2015 as he did in 2010? Or Djokovic in 2017 as good as in 2015?
Even as a Djokovic fan myself, I still think it would be too extreme to call Federer from 2014, 2015 and 2019 "prime" Fed. Maybe 2012, yes, but the later years, no.

That's your OPINION, its not a fact.
Federer won 2017 Wimbledon beating everyone without dropping a set. That was smack dab in the middle of Nole's reign. Peak prime is for losers.

 

[Federev]

He is not. Nole wins H2H.
Nole won 3-1 vs Federer in Wimbledon. Peak prime is all ********.

Wimbledon 2012 and RG 2011 say hi.

 

[Kralingen]

Roland Garros.

 

[Federev]

This isn't hypothetical. We have the matches in history. Look at the 2011 AO semi-final match between Federer and Djokovic and compare that to the 2012 AO final between Nadal and Djokovic, and there you have your answer.
2011 was still peak Federer, although it was definitely the final stage. He was only 29 years old in 2011 AO and was the defending champion. Djokovic defeated him in straight sets.
In 2012, Nadal and Djokovic went to a very close 5-setter.

You don’t have to use the AO.

You can use Wimbledon 2012 where peak Novak played the closest he could to peak Federer, (who was well past his peak, but still closer than any of ‘14, ‘15, ‘19) and you have 2012 where peak Novak played peak age Rafa.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Wimbledon 2012 and RG 2011 say hi.

Hi

 

[fedfan24]

That's your OPINION, its not a fact.
Federer won 2017 Wimbledon beating everyone without dropping a set. That was smack dab in the middle of Nole's reign. Peak prime is for losers.

he basically had no opponents that year, altho he would’ve won any of 2014-2022 imo with that form but not without dropping a set (minus 2015, 2014 could go either way.

old man fed was still excellent on grass but djokovic was a bad match up for him. You need the mid 20s fed to take him down there.

 

[DSH]

Which is more likely, peak Federer or peak Nadal defeating peak Djokovic at Laver Arena? Federer is stronger physically on HC, but weaker mentally than Nadal!

Who wins, Federer from the 2007 Australian Open vs Djokovic from the 2011 Australian Open?

 

[Megafanoftennis100]

Who wins, Federer from the 2007 Australian Open vs Djokovic from the 2011 Australian Open?

2011 Djokovic in 4 or 5.
I don't think there was a landslide of a difference between 2007 Federer and 2011 Federer at the AO.

 

[fedfan24]

2011 Djokovic in 4 or 5.
I don't think there was a landslide of a difference between 2007 Federer and 2011 Federer at the AO.

depends on the court too. 2011 looked horribly slow, not much beef in fed’s shots compared to how he looked in 04/05/07 or even 09-10 there. Prefer his 2012 form too.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Both not going to happen in reality. But yes taking Fed down at W is relatively easy task. But let's not forget Djokovic had match up problem against Fed carrying 90 sq inch racket. So it was equally difficult for Djokovic imo

 

[duaneeo]

Peak Djokovic wouldn't beat peak Federer at Wimbledon or peak Nadal at Roland Garros.

And which is "peak" Djokovic? Djokovic in his 20s or Djokovic in his 30s?

 

[Razer]

On Grass peak in terms of ability Federer is 1/2 a tier above Djokovic and 1 full tier above Nadal but due to age gap (with respect to Djokovic) & matchup disadvantage (with respect to Nadal) Federer and Djokovic are in the same tier in achievements & they both are 2 tiers above Nadal in achievements, in the real world history will only see achievements..... so thats that.

 

[socallefty]

What I learned on TTW is that Djokovic is not good at winning hypothetical matches even though in real matches on tour, he has the highest career winning % in history and has won the most big tournaments. Go figure!

Federer who ranks at number 100 on the career ATP Return leaderboard largely due to his weaker 1HBH is somehow the best at winning hypothetical matches.

Leaderboard | ATP Tour | Tennis

Statistical measures of the best-performing players in three key categories in men's professional tennis.

www.atptour.com

 

[ppma]

I'd go for Fed. More actively aggressive game has more chances to fail than spiny consistent passive aggression.

 

[alexio]

betonfred

 

[GoatNo1]

Two things about Nole are absolutely astounding:

1. how much he wins in real life!

and

2. How much he loses in hypothetical matches!

 

[ppma]

3. How devoted their fans are in promoting him, even if they are not paid.

 

[smalahove]

Federer who ranks at number 100 on the career ATP Return leaderboard largely due to his weaker 1HBH is somehow the best at winning hypothetical matches.

Leaderboard | ATP Tour | Tennis

Statistical measures of the best-performing players in three key categories in men's professional tennis.

www.atptour.com

Nick @intuitivetennis explains why, despite his mediocre return stats, Fed is one the greatest returners of all times, which I think is pretty spot on. This is something seen among a lot of the truly great servers, and we'll probably see this in Novak's game, as he gets older: choosing in which return games to use energy, whilst relying on solid serving.

Btw this is not a dig at Novak, or taking sides in the hypothetical debate.

 

[SonnyT]

But didn't the 4 matches take place after Federer's prime years on grass?
Also, if peak prime is all "********" as you claim, then did Nadal play as well in 2015 as he did in 2010? Or Djokovic in 2017 as good as in 2015?
Even as a Djokovic fan myself, I still think it would be too extreme to call Federer from 2014, 2015 and 2019 "prime" Fed. Maybe 2012, yes, but the later years, no.

Federer was very consistent during his prime years, not deviating downwards at all. He himself said that. How do you know Fed of '14-15 couldn't beat Fed of 05-07?

Peak Federer was an invention produced by Fedfans and Djoko-haters.

 

[Megafanoftennis100]

Federer was very consistent during his prime years, not deviating downwards at all. He himself said that. How do you know Fed of '14-15 couldn't beat Fed of 05-07?

Peak Federer was an invention produced by Fedfans and Djoko-haters.

Come on, even as a Djokodal fanatic, you gotta be completely delusional to say that Fed of 14-15 would even stand a chance againt 05-07. It is clear as day that he played considerably better in 05-07.
In that case, how would you know that Djokovic of 2011 would convincingly beat himself from 2017?

 

[Subway Tennis]

Nick @intuitivetennis explains why, despite his mediocre return stats, Fed is one the greatest returners of all times, which I think is pretty spot on. This is something seen among a lot of the truly great servers, and we'll probably see this in Novak's game, as he gets older: choosing in which return games to use energy, whilst relying on solid serving.

Btw this is not a dig at Novak, or taking sides in the hypothetical debate.

It’s been a while since I’ve seen the particular brilliance of Federer’s return game summed up so well.

Thanks for posting this. Absolutely fascinating video and an example of the contextualisation of statistical data with more insight that we’re craving on here.

 

[RaulRamirez]

Hypothetically, if I had a hypothetical vote, I'd go with defeating Fed at Wimby.
(And yes, I think Fed hit and sustained greater heights at Wimby than Novak, but I don't get too worked up over these types of scenarios. When I do, much as Fed is the more dynamic, classic grass player, I envision small margins)

We need a TTWTTTT, which (of course) stands for Talk Tennis Warehouse Time Travel Tennis Tour.

 

[RS]

I wouldn't necessarily say 0/10 lol. Did you watch the 2013 Roland Garros semi-final match? Both players were in their prime (in fact, Nadal was having one of the best seasons of his career), and Nadal barely won 9-7 in the 5th set.
Djokovic also put up a decent fight in Roland Garros 2012.
Maybe 2-3/10 would be more likely.
As for peak Federer vs peak Djokovic at Wimbledon, I do understand that their 3-1 H2H in no way accurately answers this, because all those matches took place outside of Federer's peak. Nonetheless, I think that the best versions of Djokovic that stand a chance against 2003-2009 Federer on grass would be his 2011 and 2015 forms, possibly even 2014. Although his 2012, 2013 and 2016 forms would get slaughtered though.
In 2011, he was playing super aggressively and the way he dismantled Nadal was really something to behold. I think Federer, even at his peak, would have encountered difficulties handling such an aggressive player on grass. Not to mention that Djokovic's elite returns would be enough to neutralize Federer's serves, making it harder for the latter to earn free points or hold his serve as easily as he did against Nadal.
In 2015, Djokovic was a more complete player with better serves and net game. His performance in the final was nearly flawless - his returns and groundstrokes, whilst not exactly on his 2011 level, were still exceptionally good. But then considering how monstrous prime Federer's forehand was back then, Djokovic would really have to exert himself to stay in rallies with prime Fed and sprint really frequently to retrieve shots like his life depends on it (which I am sure he can, considering his form in the 2015 final).
Also, not many people acknowledge this but in 2012, Djokovic learned of his grandfather's death only a couple of months before entering Wimbledon, and surely as anyone else would be, he was emotionally devastated (even more than Fed was after losing the Wimbledon 2019 final for real). And honestly, how can you expect any athlete, however good they are, to perform at their best if their family member literally passes away not long before they participate in a tournament? The fact that he even made it to the semi-finals of Wimbledon is actually very impressive. Pete Sampras had a somewhat similar experience in 1996 when he learned of his coach's demise before facing Krajicek in the quarters. As incredible as Krajicek was in that match, Sampras was visibly affected by his coach's demise and you could tell that he wasn't mentally fully prepared for the match. Honestly, had Sampras's coach not died, Krajicek would have been slamless and Sampras would have held the record for winning 8 consecutive Wimbledon titles.
In 2013, Djokovic was exhausted from his match against Del Potro in the semis, combined with the fact that Murray basically had the entire stadium backing him throughout the match. I am not saying that Djokovic would have won the final without those disadvantages, but surely, he could have put up a much better fight.
In 2014, Djokovic faced a still very capable Federer and was very close to finishing him in 4 sets had he not choked badly in the 4th set. (I mean, going from 5-2 up to 5-7 down seems seriously unprecedented for an ATG player).
And remember, prime Federer also took 4 sets to beat players at Wimbledon, who were of the same caliber as 2014 Federer, e.g. 2005 Roddick and 2006 Nadal.
Honeslty, I think that a match between peak Fed and peak Djokovic would be closer than most people think, but Federer still gets the edge, so I would say 4/10 for peak Djokovic.

Nah on a serious note I tend to have RG 9-1. I think 8-2 or 7-3 is very generous to Nole.

 

[Winners or Errors]

That's your OPINION, its not a fact.
Federer won 2017 Wimbledon beating everyone without dropping a set. That was smack dab in the middle of Nole's reign. Peak prime is for losers.

Um, 2017 was the beginning of the CIE and Fed definitely gained from the weak competition by vulturing a few slams in 2017 and 2018. Not his fault any more than Djokovic's. Still just as pathetic.

 

[Oceans II]

Peak Djokovic wouldn't beat peak Federer at Wimbledon or peak Nadal at Roland Garros.

And which is "peak" Djokovic? Djokovic in his 20s or Djokovic in his 30s?

Can peak Federer defeat peak Djokovic at AO and peak Nadal at RG?

 

[nolefam_2024]

Can peak Federer defeat peak Djokovic at AO and peak Nadal at RG?

Haha lol got them

 

[duaneeo]

Can peak Federer defeat peak Djokovic at AO and peak Nadal at RG?

Can peak Djokovic defeat peak Murray at Wimbledon and peak Wawrinka at Roland Garros?

 

[BauerAlmeida]

Nadal is better at RG than Federer at Wimbledon, and Djokovic is better at Wimbledon than at Roland Garros. So it's unquestionably vs Federer at Wimbledon.

I think he'd go something like 1-9 vs peak Nadal at Roland Garros and something like 3-7 vs peak Federer at Wimbledon.

 

[CoolCoolCool]

Defeating Rog at Wimbledon, simply because trying to defeat peak Rafa at RG is like trying to defy the laws of physics.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Nadal is better at RG than Federer at Wimbledon, and Djokovic is better at Wimbledon than at Roland Garros. So it's unquestionably vs Federer at Wimbledon.

I think he'd go something like 1-9 vs peak Nadal at Roland Garros and something like 3-7 vs peak Federer at Wimbledon.

2-8 vs peak Nadal and 5-5 vs peak Federer.

 

[FedeRadi]

Easily Federer at Wimbledon.

I think something like this:

PEAK
Djokovic WIM 15 vs Federer WIM 05: 6-4 Federer
Djokovic RG 13 vs Nadal RG 08: 9-1 Nadal

PRIME
Djokovic WIM 11-15/18/21 vs Federer WIM 03-09: 6-4 Federer
Djokovic RG 11-16/21 vs Nadal RG 07-13 or 08-14: 8-2 Nadal

 

[Megafanoftennis100]

Easily Federer at Wimbledon.

I think something like this:

PEAK
Djokovic WIM 15 vs Federer WIM 06: 6-4 Federer
Djokovic RG 16 vs Nadal RG 08: 9-1 Nadal

PRIME
Djokovic WIM 11-15/18/22 vs Federer WIM 03-09: 6-4 Federer
Djokovic RG 11-16/21 vs Nadal RG 07-13 or 08-14: 8-2 Nadal

Fixed.
Federer in 2006 was better on grass.
Djokovic made too many errors in the 2013 Roland Garros semi-final match. 2016 was better.
Djokovic was poor at Wimbledon 2021. He only benefitted due to very weak grass competitors. He was playing easily better the following year.

 

[The Blond Blur]

Nadal is better at RG than Federer at Wimbledon, and Djokovic is better at Wimbledon than at Roland Garros. So it's unquestionably vs Federer at Wimbledon.

I think he'd go something like 1-9 vs peak Nadal at Roland Garros and something like 3-7 vs peak Federer at Wimbledon.

2-8 vs peak Nadal and 5-5 vs peak Federer.

So 2015 and 2021 are peak RAFA? That’s like saying 2017-2018 was peak Joker at the AO.

 

[nolefam_2024]

So 2015 and 2021 are peak RAFA? That’s like saying 2017-2018 was peak Joker at the AO.

Rafa fans can choose which 10 years. Nole is not bad at all, a three time champ himself. He will win 2 times vs peak Rafa. Yes.

 

[The Blond Blur]

Rafa fans can choose which 10 years. Nole is not bad at all, a three time champ himself. He will win 2 times vs peak Rafa. Yes.

Dude you guys have no idea what peak means if you honestly think that 2015 and 2021 were RAFA’s peak. That’s completely different from saying Joker isn’t good on clay or at RG.

 

[Holmes]

Djokovic has already beaten peak Federer at Wimbledon twice, so I would say that is more likely.

 

[bnjkn]

Peak Djokovic would be utterly destroyed by peak Nadal at RG. It's not even close.

It's not true that Djokovic has beaten peak Fed at W. In 2004-06 he was drinking milk from a bottle. But such a match (peak vs. peak) would be very close, an epic 5 set battle imo.

 

[Bastion]

How about Peak Novak beating ... Peak Sampras, or is it Pete Sampras?