daggerman
Hall of Fame
Connors 1975
Will Djokovic reach 400 weeks at #1?
- Thread starter Lew II
- Start date
Connors 1975
BGod
G.O.A.T.
Losing the French would allow Tsitsipas a chance to get the #1 rank after USO.
Winning the French almost certainly guarantees he keeps #1 until late this year if not until AO.
Medvedev is defending USO SF, the WTF and Paris Masters so even if he did well at Wimbledon and Novak blundered that would be a short lived reign barring a USO victory.
It's looking pretty likely he crosses 350 with ease, then that's less than a year. Federer added 8 weeks in twilight years, Agassi 14 and Connors for his time period 17. So for the counter view it would appear if Novak loses the #1 for any extended period of time say 3-4 months at this juncture he might not have many left.
Winning the French almost certainly guarantees he keeps #1 until late this year if not until AO.
Medvedev is defending USO SF, the WTF and Paris Masters so even if he did well at Wimbledon and Novak blundered that would be a short lived reign barring a USO victory.
It's looking pretty likely he crosses 350 with ease, then that's less than a year. Federer added 8 weeks in twilight years, Agassi 14 and Connors for his time period 17. So for the counter view it would appear if Novak loses the #1 for any extended period of time say 3-4 months at this juncture he might not have many left.
GhostofPetros
Semi-Pro
This is not the Srichaphan era where everything is possible
R. Schweikart
Professional
Bu how many of those weeks was Djokovic undisputed?
D
Deleted member 771911
Guest
Easily.
NAS
Hall of Fame
Med is defending around 6700 points after Wimbledon ( Canada final, Washington final ,us open final and Cincinnati, Shanghai, Paris ,yec).
Because of best of two year ranking Med is literally defending everything
NAS
Hall of Fame
Every week, he never was undisputed champion, hell he can still loose number one inspite of holding three slam
NAS
Hall of Fame
I think 400( means next year September maybe) is out of reach to some extent and Djokovic has started cutting schedule. But I think if everything goes well we may see 350 weeks for the first time in atp open era
NAS
Hall of Fame
Well I don't , I think from this usopen all the big three will face big problems, Wimbledon is last free ride.
Actually new guns were already coming( Med in us open 19 final and zverev and Thiem in AO 20) before Covid disrupted their preparation. But after last year us open they have performed great on hc, it is clay and grass where they lack experience.
One of the many reason I want Novak to get Wimbledon before problem starts
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Realistically, he shouldn't lose #1 before Paris if things go even semi-decently. That gives Djokovic another 20ish weeks practically guaranteed, meaning 350ish.
If he can string together a win at Wimbledon or the USO, win the AO next year, and do pretty well in some M1000s, he should have 400.
If he can string together a win at Wimbledon or the USO, win the AO next year, and do pretty well in some M1000s, he should have 400.
Sunny014
Legend
What about that pathetic era almost 2 and 1/2 decades back when a person who never won a slam became rank 1 and a guy who won his 1st slam became rank 3 while a multiple time champion was pushed to rank 2 like a weakling?
Sunny014
Legend
Novak will definitely be ending the year as 1.
He has won like 2 slams this year, you could count on him to win 1 more, unless you have Medvedev defending all of his points and also winning wimbledon+USO there is no way novak will lose 1 because he too will be winning.
Novak most certainly will get the CYGS or come very close to it and will take the 7th YE1 and maybe aim even for 400, everything is possible now.
He has won like 2 slams this year, you could count on him to win 1 more, unless you have Medvedev defending all of his points and also winning wimbledon+USO there is no way novak will lose 1 because he too will be winning.
Novak most certainly will get the CYGS or come very close to it and will take the 7th YE1 and maybe aim even for 400, everything is possible now.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
Street
Semi-Pro
He is only around 600 points ahead of tsitsipas in the race rankings so nothing is guaranteed yet.
NAS
Hall of Fame
Tsitsipas might get tired towards end as he has already played 50 matches and he keep on playing many hc tournaments
Sunny014
Legend
but overall Djokovic is on 12K+ points in the ATP Rankings while Stefanos is still on 7900+ and Novak is the fav to win wimbledon too.
How can Stefanos be at an advantage in the second half of the year unless you expect him to win the remaining 2 slams? If he does that then sure, he will beat.... but if Novak wins wimbledon then isn't it game over?
Street
Semi-Pro
He doesn't have to win the two remaining slams, they are almost even at this point in terms of race ranking points, if djokovic and tsitsipas win a slam each until the end of the year, tsitsipas would just need to outperform djokovic in the masters series events which isn't unlikely with djokovic's reduced schedule. Djokovic is the big favourite of course but nothing is guaranteed so far.
Texas Tennis Fan
Professional
YE No. 1 and the No. 1 ranking are entirely different due to YE No. 1 being only points this year and No. 1 ranking influenced by the COVID way of retaining 50% points up to Cincinnati. Consequently, Djokovic has two different players who are his main challengers for each.
The weekly No. 1 has the main challenger being Medvedev, but this is not a very strong challenger since Medvedev is mainly a hardcourt player, lost early at Halle, and has a ton of points to defend during the hardcourt season. If Djokovic loses early in Wimbledon and Medvedev wins or is in finals then Medvedev can take over No. 1 but it will be a short time because of all those points to defend. Nadal was a threat until his defeat at RG and because he is less likely to win on hardcourt and is likely to cut back on his schedule as he tends to do. Unless Nadal wins Wimbledon which he hasn't won for 10 years, he really is not much of a threat.
Djokovic is also likely to go deep into Wimbledon if not win it (there is a danger of an early upset until he full gets his 'grass-legs" so to speak). There are just not that many players capable of winning on grass. He also can gain a LOT of points at US Open which he will put a lot of emphasis on doing well. So, I think at this point, barring injury, or an major drop-off, he is 90% likely to hold No. 1 the whole year which puts him at 353 weeks total. Whether he gets to 400 weeks then depends on his motivation, how he continues to do at slams, and how many other tournaments he plays. Hs biggest threat here may be Jelena and his kids
YE No. 1, I think he will push for this year, since only Tsitsipas is close and if Djokovic does well in Wimbledon and US Open, he is in great shape to win No. 1. Tsitsipas has the all-court game, but historically has not done as well on hardcourt as on clay. He also has the challenge of lots of matches and maybe tiring and a lot more really good hardcourt players.
Having a lot more good hardcourt players makes it harder for Djokovic to win the US Open as well as other high-level hardcourt tournaments, but it also means that there is likely to be a lot of splitting of points by the younger players, making it harder for anyone to pass him up.
So, the YE No. 1 is still Djokovic's to lose, but I'd give it a bit lower than retaining the weekly no. 1, say at 75-80% likely.
The weekly No. 1 has the main challenger being Medvedev, but this is not a very strong challenger since Medvedev is mainly a hardcourt player, lost early at Halle, and has a ton of points to defend during the hardcourt season. If Djokovic loses early in Wimbledon and Medvedev wins or is in finals then Medvedev can take over No. 1 but it will be a short time because of all those points to defend. Nadal was a threat until his defeat at RG and because he is less likely to win on hardcourt and is likely to cut back on his schedule as he tends to do. Unless Nadal wins Wimbledon which he hasn't won for 10 years, he really is not much of a threat.
Djokovic is also likely to go deep into Wimbledon if not win it (there is a danger of an early upset until he full gets his 'grass-legs" so to speak). There are just not that many players capable of winning on grass. He also can gain a LOT of points at US Open which he will put a lot of emphasis on doing well. So, I think at this point, barring injury, or an major drop-off, he is 90% likely to hold No. 1 the whole year which puts him at 353 weeks total. Whether he gets to 400 weeks then depends on his motivation, how he continues to do at slams, and how many other tournaments he plays. Hs biggest threat here may be Jelena and his kids
YE No. 1, I think he will push for this year, since only Tsitsipas is close and if Djokovic does well in Wimbledon and US Open, he is in great shape to win No. 1. Tsitsipas has the all-court game, but historically has not done as well on hardcourt as on clay. He also has the challenge of lots of matches and maybe tiring and a lot more really good hardcourt players.
Having a lot more good hardcourt players makes it harder for Djokovic to win the US Open as well as other high-level hardcourt tournaments, but it also means that there is likely to be a lot of splitting of points by the younger players, making it harder for anyone to pass him up.
So, the YE No. 1 is still Djokovic's to lose, but I'd give it a bit lower than retaining the weekly no. 1, say at 75-80% likely.
Nadal_Django
Legend
#bringbacklew2
mahesh69a
Semi-Pro
Its a travesty that the mods banned Lew II who posted stats, cherry-picked most of the time with an obvious bias, but there are worse people in this forum with even more prejudice and outright trolls like USO whose every post wreaks of hatred toward Djokovic and some of them even wished that Djokovic would get covid at the beginning of 2020.#bringbacklew2
Nadal_Django
Legend
Yeah mods, let Lew II repent his sins and allow him back on the forum.
Thanks in advance.
onyxrose81
Hall of Fame
He did say he was going to reduce his schedule but instead of this year, it’ll probably happen next year. I think he said he was going to go all out for one more year.
Texas Tennis Fan
Professional
He did reduce it a bit early in the year, but with Wimbledon, Olympics, and US Open fairly close together, he will be busy for a the next two months. Then, if he is still in great position to win the YE No. 1, I am sure he will participate in the tournaments he needs to so as to maximize wining the YE No. 1.
Tennisfan339
Professional
YE No. 1 and the No. 1 ranking are entirely different due to YE No. 1 being only points this year and No. 1 ranking influenced by the COVID way of retaining 50% points up to Cincinnati. Consequently, Djokovic has two different players who are his main challengers for each.
The weekly No. 1 has the main challenger being Medvedev, but this is not a very strong challenger since Medvedev is mainly a hardcourt player, lost early at Halle, and has a ton of points to defend during the hardcourt season. If Djokovic loses early in Wimbledon and Medvedev wins or is in finals then Medvedev can take over No. 1 but it will be a short time because of all those points to defend. Nadal was a threat until his defeat at RG and because he is less likely to win on hardcourt and is likely to cut back on his schedule as he tends to do. Unless Nadal wins Wimbledon which he hasn't won for 10 years, he really is not much of a threat.
Djokovic is also likely to go deep into Wimbledon if not win it (there is a danger of an early upset until he full gets his 'grass-legs" so to speak). There are just not that many players capable of winning on grass. He also can gain a LOT of points at US Open which he will put a lot of emphasis on doing well. So, I think at this point, barring injury, or an major drop-off, he is 90% likely to hold No. 1 the whole year which puts him at 353 weeks total. Whether he gets to 400 weeks then depends on his motivation, how he continues to do at slams, and how many other tournaments he plays. Hs biggest threat here may be Jelena and his kids
YE No. 1, I think he will push for this year, since only Tsitsipas is close and if Djokovic does well in Wimbledon and US Open, he is in great shape to win No. 1. Tsitsipas has the all-court game, but historically has not done as well on hardcourt as on clay. He also has the challenge of lots of matches and maybe tiring and a lot more really good hardcourt players.
Having a lot more good hardcourt players makes it harder for Djokovic to win the US Open as well as other high-level hardcourt tournaments, but it also means that there is likely to be a lot of splitting of points by the younger players, making it harder for anyone to pass him up.
So, the YE No. 1 is still Djokovic's to lose, but I'd give it a bit lower than retaining the weekly no. 1, say at 75-80% likely.
Thank you. Very well explained. Medvedev is the biggest threat for #1 in short-term, but for YE#1 the danger is clearly Tsitsipas at this point. Both Djokovic and Tsitsipas have more than 4K in the race. Zverev is #3 with less than 3K points, he and other following players (Rublev, Nadal,...) have little chance to catch up unless they win a slam.
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
Lew’s stats weren’t why he got banned.
mahesh69a
Semi-Pro
I don't know what happened and why he got banned, But, surely, Lew did not spout vile hatred like USO where (almost) every post is insulting Djokovic???
Antonio Puente
Hall of Fame
I bet Lew was loving life on Sunday. Probably burned a cross in celebration.
Backspin1183
Talk Tennis Guru
ForehandCross
G.O.A.T.
#bringbacklew2
Yep, the guy must have been ecstatic after what happened at RG. He deserves his moment.
Banning long term posters just makes the forum feel a little empty.
325
Forehanderer
Professional
This is the sandgren era where everything is possible
Texas Tennis Fan
Professional
I out these numbers in the Djokovic News discussion, so sorry for double post.
At the end of RG 2022, Djokovic will have 376 weeks at No.1 if he is still ahead. The next major milestone after that is 400 weeks at No. 1 which I have occurring on November 21, 2022, assuming he remains No. 1 throughout the next year and a half. I am very proud of him!
At the end of RG 2022, Djokovic will have 376 weeks at No.1 if he is still ahead. The next major milestone after that is 400 weeks at No. 1 which I have occurring on November 21, 2022, assuming he remains No. 1 throughout the next year and a half. I am very proud of him!
Sampras-Bruguera 1993
Legend
Most people probably never heard of him before a few years ago. Too long ago. Most people didn’t know the era before Sampras/Agassi. “Who is this rod laver fella?”
Antonio Puente
Hall of Fame
The GOAT? More like the Vulture.
Sampras-Bruguera 1993
Legend
400 years at this rate. We’ll be flying on spaceships and taking teleportation devices to see him dominate the slams against NEXNEXNEXGENMUG
jm1980
Talk Tennis Guru
Says the fan of the guy whose Slams include a Berrettini Open and an Anderson Open
Madinolf
Rookie
Oh maybe you forgot the 6 consecutive seasons with over 11,000 ATP points from 2011 to 2016...
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