Zverev and Kyrgios Compared

[Devin]

Alexander Zverev and Nick Kyrgios are two up and coming tennis stars with tons of potential. A rivalry between the two players is highly anticipated in the next couple of years, and even though Kyrgios has won their first two matches, I feel as if the entire thing in the end could go either way.

I thought I'd compare the two players and show who excels over the other in certain categories. This could be important in determining what future outcomes will be.

Disclosure: I have only watched a few matches and highlights from these people, it's okay to disagree with me.

Serve:

Nick Kyrgios without a doubt. I don't think the numbers lie whatsoever. He already has more than twice Zverev's aces (even though he's been on the tour longer), but he also has made less double faults than Zverev.

Forehand:

It's really hard to say, but I'd give Zverev a slight edge here. Sure, Kyrgios can hit the ball with an insane amount of pace if he wants to (I don't know how consistently), but his wristy forehand seems to irritate me in the way that he doesn't do enough with potential putaway shots. This has caused Kyrgios to sometimes blow the advantage he's had in certain points before. Also, I think Zverev gets more consistent depth on his shots (just a comparison to Kyrgios...) because some of Kyrgios' rally forehands land somewhat short. Zverev's forehand is pretty loopy too, but I think his technique will serve him better in the long run (no pun intended).

Backhand:

I would probably give this one to Zverev too. This one is an close call, but I feel as if Zverev puts more depth on his shots. I've also noticed that Kyrgios' backhand is far more wristy, and he doesn't have as much of a follow-through. If Kyrgios involved his legs more and got a little bit more power on his shot, my verdict could change.

Speed:

Both are relatively tall tennis players, but I think Kyrgios is faster than Zverev. I've seen them both manage some insane gets (Zverev's coverage against Murray at the AO), but Kyrgios' get against Raonic at Wimbledon back then was an insane demonstration of speed, so I will give it to him.

Tactics/Playing Style:

Kyrgios can definitely use his far superior feel to his advantage (I don't think that's very debatable, even though his drop shot use can become predictable at times). However, it's pretty obvious that Kyrgios sometimes tries to make the point more difficult than it needs to be by showing off when he could've ended it earlier.

--

As of now, Kyrgios has a good edge on the serve, and Zverev doesn't have enough of an edge on the forehand and backhand, so Kyrgios will win the majority of matches. However, as these two age, I think the H2H between the two will even out a little more.

If you disagree with any of my thoughts, feel free to reply here. Discuss about it. What do you think will be the outcome of their future rivalry (if there is one)?

 

[WisconsinPlayer]

I agree for the most part, Im excited to see Zverev develop his serve into a real weapon and fill out his game. Also you need a category for flare

 

[falstaff78]

Return of serve?

 

[Devin]

Return of serve?

I would give it to Zverev, but only slightly. Kyrgios may be a little bit better off of the reaction, but Zverev returns the ball better than him. I honestly haven't paid much attention to the return though. My apologies for not including that though.

 

[falstaff78]

I would give it to Zverev, but only slightly.

Not sure I agree. It's a massive difference

Last 52 weeks:

Kyrgios 34.8% points won on return
Zverev 38.0% points won on return

That's the difference between breaking more than once a set on average vs less than once a set on average.

Not surprisingly Kyrgios has to play the TB lottery much more often :

Kyrgios 35 TBs in 54 matches = 0.65 TBs / match
Zverev 29 TBs in 65 matches = 0.45 TBs / match

 

[Devin]

Not sure I agree. It's a massive difference

Last 52 weeks:

Kyrgios 34.8% points won on return
Zverev 38.0% points won on return

That's a massive difference. It's the difference between breaking more than once a set on average vs less than once a set on average.

Not surprisingly Kyrgios has to play the TB lottery much more often :

Kyrgios 35 TBs in 54 matches = 0.65 TBs / match
Zverev 29 TBs in 65 matches = 0.45 TBs / match

Thanks. I didn't expect such a wide difference.

 

[InsideOut900]

Kyrgios has the better serve and court awareness.The way he uses variety, junkballing and well timed injections of pace is great to watch, clearly a very talented man.

Zverev has steady groundstrokes and is better on defence/when not in control of the point.

At the peak of their powers I would see Zverev as the more consistent player across all surfaces( his game is far more adaptable on clay and he seem to have no weak surface), while Kyrgios might be the better big match player(he can motivate himself fantastically when he wants to prove a point, while Zverev is still too young and hasn't really had a big win, only pushed Nadal very hard on slow HC twice)

 

[AiRFederer]

You are heavily underestimating Nick's forehand

 

[-NN-]

Alexander Zverev and Nick Kyrgios are two up and coming tennis stars with tons of potential. A rivalry between the two players is highly anticipated in the next couple of years, and even though Kyrgios has won their first two matches, I feel as if the entire thing in the end could go either way.

I thought I'd compare the two players and show who excels over the other in certain categories. This could be important in determining what future outcomes will be.

Disclosure: I have only watched a few matches and highlights from these people, it's okay to disagree with me.

Serve:

Nick Kyrgios without a doubt. I don't think the numbers lie whatsoever. He already has more than twice Zverev's aces (even though he's been on the tour longer), but he also has made less double faults than Zverev.

Forehand:

It's really hard to say, but I'd give Zverev a slight edge here. Sure, Kyrgios can hit the ball with an insane amount of pace if he wants to (I don't know how consistently), but his wristy forehand seems to irritate me in the way that he doesn't do enough with potential putaway shots. This has caused Kyrgios to sometimes blow the advantage he's had in certain points before. Also, I think Zverev gets more consistent depth on his shots (just a comparison to Kyrgios...) because some of Kyrgios' rally forehands land somewhat short. Zverev's forehand is pretty loopy too, but I think his technique will serve him better in the long run (no pun intended).

Backhand:

I would probably give this one to Zverev too. This one is an close call, but I feel as if Zverev puts more depth on his shots. I've also noticed that Kyrgios' backhand is far more wristy, and he doesn't have as much of a follow-through. If Kyrgios involved his legs more and got a little bit more power on his shot, my verdict could change.

Speed:

Both are relatively tall tennis players, but I think Kyrgios is faster than Zverev. I've seen them both manage some insane gets (Zverev's coverage against Murray at the AO), but Kyrgios' get against Raonic at Wimbledon back then was an insane demonstration of speed, so I will give it to him.

Tactics/Playing Style:

Kyrgios can definitely use his far superior feel to his advantage (I don't think that's very debatable, even though his drop shot use can become predictable at times). However, it's pretty obvious that Kyrgios sometimes tries to make the point more difficult than it needs to be by showing off when he could've ended it earlier.

--

As of now, Kyrgios has a good edge on the serve, and Zverev doesn't have enough of an edge on the forehand and backhand, so Kyrgios will win the majority of matches. However, as these two age, I think the H2H between the two will even out a little more.

If you disagree with any of my thoughts, feel free to reply here. Discuss about it. What do you think will be the outcome of their future rivalry (if there is one)?

Good effort.

I don't think the backhands are close and give Zverev a very clear advantage. Both have excellent game sense, especially Kyrgios. Zverev shows much greater mentality when behind and Kyrgios seems to get antsy when approaching the finish line, such as getting a decisive break in a second set after winning the first set, although he does tend to carry it through and win the match. Overall, Kyrgios impresses me more with his mentality with how he's gone about the challenge of taking out top players whereas Zverev's mental efforts against a. Kyrgios recently and b. Nadal at the AO were just very strange and paradoxically submissive given his overt and obnoxious celebrations and bravado (conversely not the case with Kyrgios whose audacity seems to mimic his obnoxious bravado). However, with his back against the wall Zverev does not give in and is far less prone to tanking, packing it in, or not giving full effort on each and every point. In that sense, his mental application is clearly superior.

Overall in terms of game style, Zverev is vanilla and Kyrgios is highly inventive and unique.

Both are very good prospects and I really like both guys.. I'm definitely a fan.

 

[Devin]

You are heavily underestimating Nick's forehand

I've seen how much power and pace he can hit it with, and it's insane when he goes for it. Some of his forehands are, without a doubt, faster than 110 mph. However, he doesn't do it very often, and I've seen him blow the advantage he's had in points by hitting weak put-away shots. If he made that change, it would for sure improve his game.

 

[-NN-]

Kyrgios is kinda all arm with his strokes which no doubt leads to his troubles in creating a consistent rally shot pace. He shovels and guides his backhand so much of the time and isn't terribly interested in maximising the proficiency of his kinetic chains but would rather spend the least possible effort in producing his results. In a sense that leads to good efficiency but it also puts a huge load on his arm especially for his FH stroke, and that's dangerous long-term.


The problem a lot of people on this board have with Zverev is a. his height (no precedent for such a player being a great) and b. his game lacking a supposed X-factor.

 

[AiRFederer]

I've seen how much power and pace he can hit it with, and it's insane when he goes for it. Some of his forehands are, without a doubt, faster than 110 mph. However, he doesn't do it very often, and I've seen him blow the advantage he's had in points by hitting weak put-away shots. If he made that change, it would for sure improve his game.

That forehand plus his serve can singlehandedly beat the big 5 any day of the week, zverev's on the other hand won't.

 

[Gary Duane]

Not sure I agree. It's a massive difference

Last 52 weeks:

Kyrgios 34.8% points won on return
Zverev 38.0% points won on return

That's the difference between breaking more than once a set on average vs less than once a set on average.

Not surprisingly Kyrgios has to play the TB lottery much more often :

Kyrgios 35 TBs in 54 matches = 0.65 TBs / match
Zverev 29 TBs in 65 matches = 0.45 TBs / match

Bottom line stat and cuts to the chase.

I figure Kyrgios is close to at the height of his service game, and Zverev is at least a couple years away. I don't expect the Kyrgios return game is going to be better and may get worse. If both stay healthy I'm expecting Zverev to overtake Nick and gain dominance in one to two years.

I don't trust players who depend too much on TBs to win matches, because that style of play is typical of servebots.

 

[Gary Duane]

That forehand plus his serve can singlehandedly beat the big 5 any day of the week, zverev's on the other hand won't.

Not when he hits a slump in serving and the forehand cools off. If those two weapons are enough to beat the Big Five any day of the week, none of them will be beating him again in the future. He's not that good - yet.

 

[ojo rojo]

I don't trust players who depend too much on TBs to win matches, because that style of play is typical of servebots.

 

[AiRFederer]

Not when he hits a slump in serving and the forehand cools off. If those two weapons are enough to beat the Big Five any day of the week, none of them will be beating him again in the future. He's not that good - yet.

My bad, should've clarified, his forehand plus serve combo gives him a CHANCE that I don't think anyone else in the tour has, to be able to beat the top dogs any day of the week.

 

[ZiggyStardust]

I agree with the OP except in that Nick's FH is better than Zverev's (which is quite limited). Zverev has much better ROS. Nick has much more touch and creativity.

 

[falstaff78]

Bottom line stat and cuts to the chase.

I figure Kyrgios is close to at the height of his service game, and Zverev is at least a couple years away. I don't expect the Kyrgios return game is going to be better and may get worse. If both stay healthy I'm expecting Zverev to overtake Nick and gain dominance in one to two years.

I don't trust players who depend too much on TBs to win matches, because that style of play is typical of servebots.

Why am i not surprised that a statistician like you sees through the Kyrgios hype!!

 

[falstaff78]

My bad, should've clarified, his forehand plus serve combo gives him a CHANCE that I don't think anyone else in the tour has, to be able to beat the top dogs any day of the week.

What his serve and forehand combo do is give him a chance of reaching a TB against top 5 guys.

Kyrgios vs. top 5, career record 6-7

.................#........#SetsPld........#TBsPld
wins........6............15...................10
losses ....7............19....................1

To illustrate how streaky Kyrgios is, consider that he was 8-2 in the 10 tie breaks he played against the top 10 in wins. If he had been 5-5, he would likely have lost a couple of those matches. However, no amount of tiebreak luck would have rescued him in the 7 losses.

 

[Dolgopolov85]

Bottom line stat and cuts to the chase.

I figure Kyrgios is close to at the height of his service game, and Zverev is at least a couple years away. I don't expect the Kyrgios return game is going to be better and may get worse. If both stay healthy I'm expecting Zverev to overtake Nick and gain dominance in one to two years.

I don't trust players who depend too much on TBs to win matches, because that style of play is typical of servebots.

I think so too. On the other hand, I see a good opening for NK this year given he has beaten Nole back to back on a surface where I'd ordinarily give Nole the edge. Fought very hard against Fed who has thus far this year been the man to beat. I think this and the next year present N(adir)'s big chance. I don' think his ground game is very sustainable and for that reason, I see him eventually slumping. Z gives me the impression of having more upside, of having a higher level of play within his grasp. Whether he gets to it or not may have to do with the stuff between the ears but in that department too, he has matured this year vis a vis earlier years like the match against Berdych at Wimbledon where he gave up too soon. He has shown more willingness to grit it out this year and his decision making under pressure has also been impressive for where he's at in terms of his career. The game is mostly played on slow-medium HC these days and on that surface as well as clay, I see Z having the advantage. IF the courts/conditions move back to fast, things could change.

 

[AiRFederer]

What his serve and forehand combo do is give him a chance of reaching a TB against top 5 guys.

Kyrgios vs. top 5, career record 6-7

.................#........#SetsPld........#TBsPld
wins........6............15...................10
losses ....7............19....................1

To illustrate how streaky Kyrgios is, consider that he was 8-2 in the 10 tie breaks he played against the top 10. If he had been 5-5, he would likely have lost a couple of those matches. However, no amount of tiebreak luck would have rescued him in the 7 losses.

Dude that's the main point of having a chance...

 

[falstaff78]

Dude that's the main point of having a chance...

Indeed. I'm agreeing with you and providing evidence to substantiate your claim.

 

[AiRFederer]

Indeed. I'm agreeing with you and providing evidence to substantiate your claim.

Sorry then

 

[falstaff78]

Sorry then

No problem!

The downside for NK is that he will, in all likelihood, never be a consistent top 5 player, reach number 1, or win 3+ majors

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Good effort.

I don't think the backhands are close and give Zverev a very clear advantage. Both have excellent game sense, especially Kyrgios. Zverev shows much greater mentality when behind and Kyrgios seems to get antsy when approaching the finish line, such as getting a decisive break in a second set after winning the first set, although he does tend to carry it through and win the match. Overall, Kyrgios impresses me more with his mentality with how he's gone about the challenge of taking out top players whereas Zverev's mental efforts against a. Kyrgios recently and b. Nadal at the AO were just very strange and paradoxically submissive given his overt and obnoxious celebrations and bravado (conversely not the case with Kyrgios whose audacity seems to mimic his obnoxious bravado). However, with his back against the wall Zverev does not give in and is far less prone to tanking, packing it in, or not giving full effort on each and every point. In that sense, his mental application is clearly superior.

Overall in terms of game style, Zverev is vanilla and Kyrgios is highly inventive and unique.

Both are very good prospects and I really like both guys.. I'm definitely a fan.

I've seen the Zverev BH up close at IW the last two years.

It's already one of the top 3 2HBH in men's tennis (along with Sock jk; seriously, it's right there with Djokovic and Murray).

Zverev has better movement and defense imo. I agree that Kyrgios, strangely enough, has the edge on mentality right now, but that's only so far in 2017. He hasn't really faced much adversity due to his excellent level at IW and Miami. I also agree that Kyrgios is much more likely to throw in the towel if things aren't going well. Zverev has shown very impressive grit against Isner in the Miami tiebreak and against Kyrgios in that second set tiebreak.

I'd love to see both of these guys win at least a Masters this year. It will be fascinating to see them evolve in the coming years and hopefully win multiple slams.

 

[Dolgopolov85]

Dude that's the main point of having a chance...

Right, but he also needs to be winning sets off a break of serve as opposed to tiebreaks. He definitely needs to return better to have a chance to win say a slam. Kyrgios is already at 90.4% on service games won for the last 52 weeks. Only Raonic and Karlovic beat him. He can't better that imo. He's reached the limit of how well he can serve. But on the return games won, he is at an abysmal 17.6% and way down below at no. 65. Say if he was winning 25% return games, he would be kryptonite for the tour. Right now, he is way off on the return and hence dependent on winning tiebreaks. That's the servebot recipe for success and hasn't yielded slams in a long, long time.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

The bot is alerting us that he is on low battery mode and needs a charge!

 

[AiRFederer]

No problem!

The downside for NK is that he will, in all likelihood, never be a consistent top 5 player, reach number 1, or win 3+ majors

I refuse to believe that, I really like Nick even way before when the hate for him was much worse. And that talent, such a beauty to watch when on.

 

[AiRFederer]

Right, but he also needs to be winning sets off a break of serve as opposed to tiebreaks. He definitely needs to return better to have a chance to win say a slam. Kyrgios is already at 90.4% on service games won for the last 52 weeks. Only Raonic and Karlovic beat him. He can't better that imo. He's reached the limit of how well he can serve. But on the return games won, he is at an abysmal 17.6% and way down below at no. 65. Say if he was winning 25% return games, he would be kryptonite for the tour. Right now, he is way off on the return and hence dependent on winning tiebreaks. That's the servebot recipe for success and hasn't yielded slams in a long, long time.

I think he's not as limited as for example raonic or karlovic, pure example of servebots, for me the problem has always been attitude. Feels like the dude doesnt go 100% every point, cliche as it sounds but looking like the truth.

 

[ANDYbhGENIUS]

Not sure I agree. It's a massive difference

Last 52 weeks:

Kyrgios 34.8% points won on return
Zverev 38.0% points won on return

That's the difference between breaking more than once a set on average vs less than once a set on average.

Not surprisingly Kyrgios has to play the TB lottery much more often :

Kyrgios 35 TBs in 54 matches = 0.65 TBs / match
Zverev 29 TBs in 65 matches = 0.45 TBs / match

Just two remarks; 3.2% points won on return difference is a negligable difference to me, for a number of reasons, one being purely statistically, regardless of opponents met, like Isner, Karlovic, big guys, big names, twice Djokovic, etc., and the other is that Kyrgios does not mind a tiebreak against a lesser server, as he will have big plus chances to win a TB against those, simply because a tiebreak is NOT, and never will be, a "lottery", another thing, myth, in your post.

Nick's percentages are very fluctuating anyway, since a number of his matches he plays with much less motivation than others, so his "stats" can be wildly different, and conclusions, based from that perspective, are false.

 

[Gary Duane]

Why am i not surprised that a statistician like you sees through the Kyrgios hype!!

I'm not calling it hype, but I'm not on the Kyrgios train yet.

Color me hopeful but a bit skeptical!

Hopeful because I want to see geriatric tennis turned on its head a bit, but skeptical because I'm sort of a bottom line guy, which is why I keep putting so much emphasis on games, which also means points. He's got the points this year so far on HCs, but they have to stay there for a year. If he has 55% of points or even close at the end of this year, he's the real deal.

If you want to talk about someone hugely over-hyped, put Sock at the top of the list. He has a good match record so far this year but NOTHING else to back it up!

 

[BeatlesFan]

FOREHAND: It's really hard to say, but I'd give Zverev a slight edge here. ave as much of a follow-through.

Have to disagree here strongly. Zverev's FH is a weak shot considering his height and Nick's FH (when it's on) is lethal. Nick just doesn't go for his FH that often, but as he matures, he surely will. Z's strength is his BH, which is a great shot. I also disagree that there's any doubt about who is faster: Nick by a HUGE margin. He's a natural athlete with explosive speed. Z is literally Raonic compared to Nick in speed.

I'm not impressed at all by Z's game, unlike many others here. He does nothing unique or special in comparison to other top players. He is defensive in his mindset and play. For me, he's just a larger version of Thiem. He's tall but his serve speed/placement doesn't reflect that at all.

I think Nick's mental deficiencies are also disparaged too much. Basically I think Nick's tremendous talent will make up for many of his weaknesses. He doesn't need to work or train as much as Z (or anyone else) because his innate talent makes up for so much. The only question is whether he wants it enough to keep his brain in the game over 7 matches in a best 3/5 format. If his mental issues clear up, he will be LETHAL and a force in tennis for the next decade or more. But even if he doesn't, I don't see Z dominating the game at all. The truly great players show it by the age of 19, Z has failed that test to a spectacular degree.

 

[ANDYbhGENIUS]

Have to disagree here strongly. Zverev's FH is a weak shot considering his height and Nick's FH (when it's on) is lethal. Nick just doesn't go for his FH that often, but as he matures, he surely will. Z's strength is his BH, which is a great shot. I also disagree that there's any doubt about who is faster: Nick by a HUGE margin. He's a natural athlete with explosive speed. Z is literally Raonic compared to Nick in speed.

I'm not impressed at all by Z's game, unlike many others here. He does nothing unique or special in comparison to other top players. He is defensive in his mindset and play. For me, he's just a larger version of Thiem. He's tall but his serve speed/placement doesn't reflect that at all.

I think Nick's mental deficiencies are also disparaged too much. Basically I think Nick's tremendous talent will make up for many of his weaknesses. He doesn't need to work or train as much as Z (or anyone else) because his innate talent makes up for so much. The only question is whether he wants it enough to keep his brain in the game over 7 matches in a best 3/5 format. If his mental issues clear up, he will be LETHAL and a force in tennis for the next decade or more. But even if he doesn't, I don't see Z dominating the game at all. The truly great players show it by the age of 19, Z has failed that test to a spectacular degree.

But several players including Nadal, who is reluctant to heap praise on young up and comers, said Zverev is likely a future world number one, paraphrased.

 

[SinjinCooper]

The Kyrgios serve is a bit of a mirage, really.

He hits it pretty hard, but the men's game has dealt with serves every bit as fast -- and some faster -- as well as FAR heavier once spin is added to the equation.

What's making Kyrgios's so lethal is its quirkiness. Same thing that made Roddick's so untouchable for a while. You heard it when Federer said after the first go around, that he, "just couldn't find the timing."

That advantage goes away as the best players see it more and more often. Again, just as happened with Roddick. The most unbelievable serve in history for a while, then the big guns caught onto it. And Roddick's delivery was MUCH heavier overall.

Once that advantage gets mitigated by repeat viewings, Nick's going to have to raise the rest of his game by a substantial margin to hang onto that top ten position. I have trouble seeing how that's going to happen.

Zverev's already got a complete game. Just needs to grow into his body a bit more and get a little more seasoning. If he stays healthy, it's hard to see how he isn't a future HOF'er.

Kyrgios? Might luck into a slam, might not. But I don't see any sustained success. He doesn't have the right tools, the body, the brain, or the fitness for it.

 

[Zebrev]

Almost all aspects of Zverev game is better than Kurious, except for serve and volley. If it were still 1990's, Kurious would be the better player by far. Thankfully it isn't.

 

[Dolgopolov85]

I think he's not as limited as for example raonic or karlovic, pure example of servebots, for me the problem has always been attitude. Feels like the dude doesnt go 100% every point, cliche as it sounds but looking like the truth.

I am not saying he is as limited as Karlovic or Raonic (who isn't very limited anyway). I am saying only they have better serve numbers than him in the last year or so, so he's hit his ceiling there. And if he doesn't improve his return/ground game, he cannot get better because he can't GOAT any further on serve.

 

[BlackSilver]

Both are overrated. Zverev incredibly so. Another tennis message board invention, like Dimitrov or Gasquet. Quite possibly there will be other youngsters better than both, even if as I suspect we are at the beginning of a global dry on tennis talent and competition will go down compared to today

Their formation years are over, which means technical improvements will be small. What will be make a big difference is if they can construct a more efficient game based on their tools.