The so called tennis pundits that have been saying since 2005 that Nadal wouldn't last one winter. But Nadal has infact lasted 9 consecutive seasons,he actually has the record for a guy who plays arguably the most punishing style of tennis the game has ever seen. So underestimate Ralph at your own peril. If these tennis pundits still haven't learnt their lesson then god help them.
I think it's safe to say(or is it? :lol: ) that Nadal's not winning slams in 2016. So as it stands, he has to win 5 out of the next 9 slams starting from USO 2013 to equal Fed's slam count and 6/9 to surpass it. It's a tall order but doable.
The slams he has the best shot of winning imo are:
1)RG
2)AO
3)Wimby
4)USO.
RG:
He could win 1 or 2 RGs OR he could lose to Novak next year and disappear into oblivion. But I don't still see an end to his RG reign anywhere in the near future,sadly. So 1-2 RGs is a conservative estimate given that Novak is his ONLY threat there who still hasn't beaten him and Delpo has an outside shot but he has to play first.That's 14 slams out of which 10 would be RGs. :lol:
Wimby: I know he's flamed out in 2 consecutive Wimbys in the first week. But that's the catch for me because history shows that when Ralph does make the second week he ends up in the final. So say he somehow luckily makes it to 2nd week(like he did in 2010) out of the next 2 Wimbys, he could snag 1?
Slam count: 15.
AO: I believe after RG, AO is his best chance for a HC slam. Nice slow high bouncing surface(like IW 2013) suits his spinners. 2014 maybe his last chance though since he might be seeded 1 or 2 for it and Novak might lose the SF to Murray and Ralph might beat the latter in the final. Recall that Ralph came tantalisingly close to beating the unbeatable GOAT at the AO *cough* Yoda *cough* in 2012, so he might make another final there and end up on the winning side.
So, taking all things into account, let's say 1 AO.
Slam count: 16
USO: He has 3 bites at the cherry(2013-2015 included). Realise that he's always gone deep at USO since 08(SF,SF,W,F,DNP) so writing him off would be silly. Say he gets another USO 10 draw he could bag 1 more(would be much easier if he avoids Novak here).
Final Slam count :17(10 RG, 3 Wimby, 2 AO, 2 USO). So ofcourse it's doable and a lot will depend on how he'll handle Novak and Murray, the former being his biggest threat at RG and the latter at Wimby and their combined threat at HC slams.
I must say that outside of Novak and Murray, I can't see anyone else beating Nadal in slams(except getting Rosoled in the first week of Wimby) till 2015 USO, a big statement to make but it's the internet so what the heck.