2018 Vienna - ATP 500

Who wins? (Top 9 in order of most likely to win from Ultimate Tennis Statistics)

  • Dimitrov!

    Votes: 3 14.3%
  • Nishikori

    Votes: 4 19.0%
  • Isner

    Votes: 1 4.8%
  • Anderson

    Votes: 1 4.8%
  • Thiem

    Votes: 5 23.8%
  • Coric

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • Raonic

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Fognini

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • Khachanov

    Votes: 1 4.8%
  • Other

    Votes: 2 9.5%

  • Total voters
    21

Meles

Bionic Poster
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Definitely not the flare of Basel, but greater depth of seeds in Vienna with most of the top 30 present. Pouille defending his win over Tsonga in ATP 500. Thiem, Anderson, Isner, Fognini, and Nishikori vie for the final spots at WTF.o_O Raonic, Chung (unlikely as just pulled out of Stockholm), Gasquet, Khachanov, and a resurgent Tsonga make for a dangerous floaters list. No byes so even the top seeds are not safe.

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See post 6 for qualifiers draw
 
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Meles

Bionic Poster
Biggest picture I've ever posted on TTW and from my phone. Some good names trying to qualify including Rublev:
2018ViennaQualy.png
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Vienna has much better field than Basel this year.
A lot of talent in Basel, but yeah I agree because none of that talent is playing great, great tennis right now other than Medvedev who may be cooling off in Moscow. Thiem could get going at this event if not stymied with a tough draw to start. Khachanov excellent right now. Anderson, Nishikori, Edmund, Schewartzman, Fognini, Coric, Gasquet, and Kohly all playing quite well.

Noticeable surface speed difference between Basel and Vienna, but some of that may be a bit higher altitude in Basel.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
As veteran Thieminator, let me just say Thiem needs an easy first round opponent. And of the 16 possibilities these have wins over him:
14 Schwartzman, Diego (ARG)
18 Coric, Borna (CRO)
19 Pouille, Lucas (FRA)
20 Raonic, Milos (CAN)
24 Gasquet, Richard (FRA)
25 Khachanov, Karen (RUS)
29 Verdasco, Fernando (ESP)
36 Kohlschreiber, Philipp (GER)
61 Querrey, Sam (USA)
73 Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried (FRA)

10/16 players basically likely to catch Thiem napping in the first round. So over two rounds Thiem has a 14% chance of avoiding all of these players, a 47% chance of just one lining up in either round, and a 39% chance of a back to back guantlet. Worst double I can think of would be Raonic first round followed by Tsonga 2nd round. Thiem's first return was good enough against Anderson from the parking lot at Flushing Meadows, but not that kind of room in Vienna and low bouncing surface just gonna make it easier for those serves to punch through Thiem.o_O
 

Hamnavoe

Hall of Fame
Big tournament for the WTF race here. With Del Potro now probably out, and presuming that Nadal will be fit to play, it's a race between Isner and Nishikori for the final spot at the finals.

Isner is 20 points ahead in the race right now after vulturing some points in Stockholm (could be up to 180 by the end of the weekend) so the onus is on Kei to have a good tournament and put himself back in the driving seat for the final place.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
NextGen contingent spread fairly well with only Khach and Tiafoe with potential 2nd round clash.:)
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Surprised he has left it to him and Rafa going head to head in Paris and London...Still massive favourite but a little surprised....I wonder how much Laver Cup has taken out of him...
He was thinking about it, but after reaching Shanghai final it was a no brainer to chop it. His game is sharp and better to be fresh for Paris and WTF.

Nadal based on last year should think long and hard about even showing for WTF. He played pretty well, but it seemed like it screwed up his season until clay. Better to let Nole have his day in the sun uncontested.
 

irishnadalfan1983

Hall of Fame
He was thinking about it, but after reaching Shanghai final it was a no brainer to chop it. His game is sharp and better to be fresh for Paris and WTF.

Nadal based on last year should think long and hard about even showing for WTF. He played pretty well, but it seemed like it screwed up his season until clay. Better to let Nole have his day in the sun uncontested.

As a Rafa fan I’d agree - I can’t see him doing better than Nole in Paris and London....He should rest up the knees - we all know what happened last season...Hoepfully his team will convince him to stay at home...Nole is quite a heavy favourite to win both and even 100% Rafa won’t trouble him at these tournaments...
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Voted Dimitrov, but looking at draw seriously thought about Edmund (other) who beat Gasquet handily today and may have an easy much around with Monfils in Antwerp Final. Edmund had a bye and a 2nd match walkover in Antwerp so should be exceptionally fresh for Vienna.

The forecast from Ulitmate Tennis (for right or for wrong) is not looking at play from the current week of tournaments, so its under forecasting Edmund and Khachanov and normally this might not be a bad thing as fatigue an issue. With Edmund, probably way off this week.
 

RF-18

Talk Tennis Guru
He was thinking about it, but after reaching Shanghai final it was a no brainer to chop it. His game is sharp and better to be fresh for Paris and WTF.

Nadal based on last year should think long and hard about even showing for WTF. He played pretty well, but it seemed like it screwed up his season until clay. Better to let Nole have his day in the sun uncontested.

Damn great line up tbh. Even if Djoko signed up wouldn't be a sure thing he'd win it. I think it is for the better Aswell. He could have tired himself out for Paris.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Time to discuss race for WTF since all contenders in Vienna:
7 Kevin Anderson 3720
8 Dominic Thiem 3535
9 John Isner 3020
10 Kei Nishikori 3000
11 Borna Coric 2300
12 Fabio Fognini 2225
13 Kyle Edmund 2050
14 Stefanos Tsitsipas 1985

Delpo is already out of WTF so 9th in race makes it. Reasonable chance Nadal will not play WTF as he's out right now and last year's attempt did not work out well. So 10th in ATP race may be enough.

Edmund will be fresh and at 2250 points if he wins European Open. He and Isner are in the same quarter here. Monfils could hit Isner 2nd round and is playing reasonably well, but likely to be even more gassed than Isner after grindathon with Tsitsipas. (Tsits is in Basel next and if he beats Monfils will still be alive like Edmund, so Tsits needs for Monfils to rollover quickly so he's fresher for Isner.:D)

Coric is the best positioned WTF dark horse and needs at least 700 points between here and Paris to catch Nishikori and Isner. Coric has a pretty cushy quarter with Anderson. Anderson however has to get by Basilashvili (Beijing winner) and then likely Raonic before he can get to Coric. Borna very much alive.

Fognini's quarter is great, but he's a little beat up. @Red Rick he's still in draw on ATP site. Get by Dimitrov's slot and Fabio could do really well here.

Nishikori and Thiem are in the same quarter, but Kei has the white hot Khachanov whose probably winning Moscow tomorrow. Thiem's draw is rough in that players all are bad matchups for him. After getting bounced first match in Shanghai, Thiem will be rusty and Gasquet no picnic. Thiem is probably safe for WTF as even with only Delpo dropping means both Isner and Nishikori have to make up over 500 points and so both making final here gives only 300 to the loser requiring SF at Paris assuming Thiem doesn't do well.

We could easily have to wait until QFs Friday for the race to start clarifying.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Damn great line up tbh. Even if Djoko signed up wouldn't be a sure thing he'd win it. I think it is for the better Aswell. He could have tired himself out for Paris.
He's already playing well, no need to over schedule. Plus probably good idea to tempt Nadal to come out and play which won't happen if Nadal is eliminated or nearly so.
 

Sysyphus

Talk Tennis Guru
Looks like the Russian Roublette will have to hope for a Lucky Loser slot. Losing against Kukushkin at the moment. Which sucks; he needs to get some wins and points under his belt again.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Gasquet withdraws from the tournament because of a right wrist injury, Thiem has now a much easier draw.
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Huge, that easier needed tune-up match. That just doubled Thiem's chances of winning tournament and now 2nd favorite behind Nishikori. (Dimi drops to 3rd)
 
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