Andy has a very manageable route to the final!

nethawkwenatchee

nethawkwenatchee

Professional
Andy Murray's potential route looks favorable!

Round one: Qualifier... Easy Money

Round two: Matosevic (Aus, 80)/ Qualifier... Straight sets

Round three: Klizan (Svk, 34)... Straight sets

Round four: Dimitrov (Bul, 11)/ Goffin (Bel, 20)... Favorite over either

Quarter-final: Federer (Swi, 2)... Very tough match any way you slice it.

Semi-final: Nadal (Spa, 3)/ Berdych (CZE, 7)... If you saw any action in Abu Dhabi or Perth these past couple weeks you'll agree that Andy is up for either of these two at the moment

Final: Djokovic (Ser, 1)/ Wawrinka (Swi, 4)... Hard work and dedication is what wins these matches... whoever worked harder in the off season will show it!
 
Last edited:
D

Deleted member 688153

Guest
He will make the QF and then get owned by Federer, who has Andy's number at the moment.

Also if Nadal is playing well enough to make the SF, he isn't beating Nadal either.
 
Djokovic2011

Djokovic2011

Bionic Poster
Firstservingman said:
He will make the QF and then get owned by Federer, who has Andy's number at the moment.

Also if Nadal is playing well enough to make the SF, he isn't beating Nadal either.
Click to expand...

I don't think Murray would get owned by Federer. I think Roger would likely win but probably in 4 tough sets. Don't forget Andy still took a set off him last year in only his second tournament since returning from his back surgery.
 
The_Mental_Giant

The_Mental_Giant

Hall of Fame
The problems of djokovic is not losing against fedalovic more often than not.. but his real problem is that even on his primetime he never had complete domination over second-tier players.. such as Ferrer,berdych,wawrinka, delpotro or even the rising young guns dimitrov/nishikori/raonic(The only second tier player he always matched up well was tsonga). You never knew what could happen and he could very well end up losing in thigh 4 or 5 sets.. always very competitive matches vs all of those.. on the other hand fedalovic 80-90% of times just beaten easily all of those... and I'm not talking about murray post-sugery in 2014 .. bu about prime/peak djokovic, you never could say he would have 80% of chances to beat ferrer or berdych for example.


Lets see at andy h2h vs second-tier players (some of them not so anymore..like wawrinka imo)

vs ferrer = 9-6
vs berdych = 3-5
vs delpotro = 5-2
vs wawrinka = 9-4
vs tsonga 10-2 (the exception, he always dominated and matches well against jo)
vs gasquet (borderline second tier) 5-3
vs monfils (borderline second tier) 4-2
______________________
45-24 =65,2% vs second tier players(% decreases considerably if you exclude tsonga)

vs newer generation

vs dimitrov = 4-2 (lost 2 of the last 3 matches)
vs nishikori = 3-1 (lost the last match)
vs raonic = 2-3
________________
9-6 = 60% wins vs young guns.. favorable but not dominant.



Winning/lose ratio combined second tier old+new players: 54-30 = 64,3 %

________________________________________________________________________

Lets compare it with someone like nadal vs the rest:

vs older second tier generation

vs ferrer 22-6
vs berdych 18-3
vs wawrinka 12-1
vs delpotro 8-4
vs tsonga 8-3
vs gasquet (borderline second tier) 10-0
vs monfils (borderline second tier) 10-2
_____________
88-19 = 82,2 % of winning over second tier players. clear domination

vs newer generation

vs dimitrov = 5-0
vs nishikori = 7-0
vs raonic = 5-0
________________
17-0 = 100% wins vs young guns.. utterly domination.


Winning/lose ratio combined second tier old+new players: 105-19 = 84,7 %
There you can see the big difference between someone like murray and nadal, Murray is not only the player who is less often dominant within big 4 matches.. but also has a much lower winning ratio vs second tier player.. and the new second tier players/new guns who are likely to be present at 4R,QF and even sometimes in SF.
 
Last edited:
Mainad

Mainad

Bionic Poster
It's certainly very manageable for him up to the quarter-finals but he'll need to be on his very best form after that in order to progress to the final (cannot afford any 2014 type lapses after that point).
 
The_Mental_Giant

The_Mental_Giant

Hall of Fame
In the worst case for andy:

Q/Matosevic/Klizan/Dimitrov/Federer/Nadal/Djokovic

Not an easy draw in the very least..draw from hell.. Dimitrov is a complicated rival for R4... let alone the 3 most dominant players in a row.
 
M

merlinpinpin

Hall of Fame
Mainad said:
It's certainly very manageable for him up to the quarter-finals but he'll need to be on his very best form after that in order to progress to the final (cannot afford any 2014 type lapses after that point).
Click to expand...

Exactly. First week looks nice for him on paper, but after that--not so much. :???:
 
F

furryballs

Banned
nadal is so bald......if he doesnt wear a cap he will suffer sunstroke in practice,and The Colonel will blast him in straights.
 
racquetreligion

racquetreligion

Hall of Fame
Matsosevic is like a walkover and the only damage is it migh put Muzza to sleep. Klizan & DimSim are easy warm ups then the challenge really starts.
 
SystemicAnomaly

SystemicAnomaly

Bionic Poster
Russeljones said:
Thread title: very manageable
Reality: must beat Dimitrov, Federer, Nadal, Djokovic.

hmm..
Click to expand...

The betting odds for Andy were better prior to the draw. He was 3rd after Novak and Roger at about 8:1 odds. He is now dropped to 4th with 10:1 to 12:1 odds,with Rafa 3rd at 8:1 odds. Odds for Novak (1:1 or 2:1) and Roger (6:1) not changed.
 
D

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
Djokovic2011 said:
I don't think Murray would get owned by Federer. I think Roger would likely win but probably in 4 tough sets. Don't forget Andy still took a set off him last year in only his second tournament since returning from his back surgery.
Click to expand...

and don't forget that was Federer's just 3rd tournament with new racket and he had very weak forehand at that moment but I still don't think Murray will be easy opponent based on WTF humiliation because surface and conditions are different. Murray will still lose IMO but in tough fought 4 sets. Plexicusion demands raw power and athletic abilities which Federer lacks at 33 and Murray is one of the best on tour regarding those aspects but Federer's skills, mentality and experience are still enough to handle players of Murray's potential irrespective of surface. Same can't be said about Djokodal though.

About topic I don't think Murray has 'Very manageable' draw assuming seeds stands. His draw,

4R: Dimitrov (Player who beat Murray in straights on grass)
QF: Federer (11 straight SF appearances on Melbourne Park)
SF: Nadal (Looked very sharp in F4tennis exho) or Berdych (bad matchup)

Overall very tough draw and expected with his current low seeding. Imv he's losing in QF most likely or ultimately will fail in SF. Dimitrov could be dangerous opponent too. Murray should focus on Masters and lower tournaments, where he sucks in last 3 years to build up top 4 rankings. With current ranking his chances are almost none.
 
ThomasGB

ThomasGB

Semi-Pro
I don't think he'd get past Federer imo. If he does, he'll lose to Djokovic. USO or Wimbledon is his best shot at another Slam.
 
Underhand

Underhand

Legend
Firstservingman said:
He will make the QF and then get owned by Federer, who has Andy's number at the moment.

Also if Nadal is playing well enough to make the SF, he isn't beating Nadal either.
Click to expand...

If he eats enough haggis and doesn't push like a 3.5 club hacker he can own the ould Swiss' arse. And Ralph can get injured (seemingly) anytime.
 
Flint

Flint

Hall of Fame
Dimi, Fed, Nad, Djok

Manageable? He'll need to be in the form of his life with no lapses.

He'll also need a high first serve %
 
D

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
RF-18 said:
It looks good until the fourth round.
Click to expand...

Usual Murray story. Looks solid obliterating lower ranked mugs and directly collapses mentally when meets first decent opponent in route. I hope Phycologists will help him improving mental toughness which he lacked last year.
 
kOaMaster

kOaMaster

Hall of Fame
if he'd actually meet & defeat all of those players, Murray would perhaps stand as the player with the toughest draw ever to win a grand slam tournament.
let's see what he does until R4.
 
Steve0904

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
Noleberic123 said:
If he beats Federer he can get to the final
Click to expand...

I think this too. I guess we would have to see how Nadal is playing as well, but if Murray can (and has to) beat Federer there's a high chance he's playing really well. In that event, Nadal would be a favourite, but not a lock. Murray did beat Rafa on this court in 2010. I won't say the match up favours him because it doesn't, but he definitely has more of a chance than Federer if it comes to that.
 
NatF

NatF

Bionic Poster
Mainad said:
As I said, Federer will be Murray's first real test if both are playing to form!
Click to expand...

If Nadal wasn't likely waiting in the next round I'd be extra psyched for that match. I think it could be a great one, I think it will be a tough match like in 2013.

Hopefully Roger will extend his winning h2h over Murray ;)
 
Dedans Penthouse

Dedans Penthouse

Legend
pea brain

furryballs said:
nadal is so bald......if he doesnt wear a cap he will suffer sunstroke in practice,and The Colonel will blast him in straights.
Click to expand...
Yeah, Nadal's losing it on the outside just as surely as you've lost it on the inside : )


Murray v. Fed QF: nice matchup - looks to be a good one. Fed in 4 entertaining, competitive sets.

After that who knows because Nadal in his current form is no sure bet to get to the SF's.
 
batz

batz

G.O.A.T.
Russeljones said:
Thread title: very manageable
Reality: must beat Dimitrov, Federer, Nadal, Djokovic.

hmm..
Click to expand...

I'm probably in the same place as you re the OPs assertion. That said,the reality is not that he must beat Dmitrov, Roger, Rafa and Nole.

The last time Murray had Fedal in his half of a slam draw hw won the event without facing either of them.
 
batz

batz

G.O.A.T.
NatF said:
If Nadal wasn't likely waiting in the next round I'd be extra psyched for that match. I think it could be a great one, I think it will be a tough match like in 2013.

Hopefully Roger will extend his winning h2h over Murray ;)
Click to expand...

So NOW their head to head matters? :)
 
batz

batz

G.O.A.T.
jaggy said:
Karlovic worries me the most.
Click to expand...

:confused: he can't face Dr Ivo until the QFs bud. If Murray makes it that far and Karlovic is standing on the other side of the net then I'll be doing backflips rather than being worried.:)
 
Russeljones

Russeljones

Talk Tennis Guru
D.Nalby12 said:
Usual Murray story. Looks solid obliterating lower ranked mugs and directly collapses mentally when meets first decent opponent in route. I hope Phycologists will help him improving mental toughness which he lacked last year.
Click to expand...

This must be why he went on a significant run when healthy, yes?
 
NatF

NatF

Bionic Poster
batz said:
So NOW their head to head matters? :)
Click to expand...

Of course it does - now Roger is leading it ;)

On a serious note, having a h2h advantage over a big rival is always a plus. Though in this case it would just be icy on the cake for extending the SF streak at the AO :)
 
Homeboy Hotel

Homeboy Hotel

Hall of Fame
Murray always does very well at Melbourne. If he's ever going to pull off a big upset and go on a tear against the top 3 then it's going to be when he's fresh, motivated, healthy and the top 3 being a relatively unknown quantity.
 
nethawkwenatchee

nethawkwenatchee

Professional
I think something that might be important to point out to some of you is this: Andy was in extremely good form prior to back surgery and was coming off of the best two year stretch of his career. 2014 was a disaster in many respects but if you take in to account his career accomplishments and his current form you'll see my points!
 
Homeboy Hotel

Homeboy Hotel

Hall of Fame
nethawkwenatchee said:
I think something that might be important to point out to some of you is this: Andy was in extremely good form prior to back surgery and was coming off of the best two year stretch of his career. 2014 was a disaster in many respects but if you take in to account his career accomplishments and his current form you'll see my points!
Click to expand...

He still got to the QF in 2014 and he was flying through all his matches up to playing Federer, he played decent in that match too.

Only problem that let him down was his match finesses - it just let him down.
 
nethawkwenatchee

nethawkwenatchee

Professional
Homeboy Hotel said:
He still got to the QF in 2014 and he was flying through all his matches up to playing Federer, he played decent in that match too.

Only problem that let him down was his match finesses - it just let him down.
Click to expand...

Very true... SF at Roland Garros was nice as was the last month leading into the world tour final. His big match success was lacking last year and I agree that fitness played a big part. It just appears that Andy had a great off season and was able to regain some quickness around the court that had been a problem last year.
 
syc23

syc23

Professional
You know the generic response with any Murray threads here is that Roger/Nole/Rafa will win and Andy has no chance. Rinse and repeat.

Clearly Murray was not match fit at Melbourne last year and was a combination of a gassed Murray and inspired tennis from Fed that led to the WTF capitulation.

If Murray were to get a chance to play Roger, I'm sure it'll be a much more closer match than last November in London.
 
tennisaddict

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
If Murray shows form and he makes it to final I will be happy for him.

But the drubbing he got in FO 2014 and WTF 2014 against Rafa / Fed is etched in memory and will take a long time to forget.
 
batz

batz

G.O.A.T.
tennisaddict said:
If Murray shows form and he makes it to final I will be happy for him.

But the drubbing he got in FO 2014 and WTF 2014 against Rafa / Fed is etched in memory and will take a long time to forget.
Click to expand...

Can I ask how you know this? Murray didn't seem too phased by Rafa in Abu Dhabi a couple of weeks ago (albeit in an exho), and Murray seemed able to bounce back from losing a Wimbledon final to Roger to winning 9 straight games against Roger on centre court Wimbledon just 4 weeks later.

You can accuse Murray of many things - lacking boucebackability is not one of them.
 
tennisaddict

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
batz said:
Can I ask how you know this? Murray didn't seem too phased by Rafa in Abu Dhabi a couple of weeks ago (albeit in an exho), and Murray seemed able to bounce back from losing a Wimbledon final to win the point where he won 9 straight games against Roger on centre court Wimbledon just 4 weeks later.

You can accuse Murray of many things - lacking boucebackability is not one of them.
Click to expand...

I should have ended the sentence with 'for me'.

On topic, I would be most happy if Nishikori or Murray win AO. I am tired of Federer / Rafa / Novak wins and the wars here.
 
batz

batz

G.O.A.T.
tennisaddict said:
I should have ended the sentence with 'for me'.

On topic, I would be most happy if Nishikori or Murray win AO. I am tired of Federer / Rafa / Novak wins and the wars here.
Click to expand...

No worries mate, we're all entitled to our opinions. Like I said, the ability to bounce back has never been a weakness for Murray IMO. If it were, there's no way he's winning a slam after getting royally pumped in his first 3 finals. He also lost his first five matches on tour to both Nole and Rafa - hasn't stopped him going on to beat both on multiple occasions including in slams.

If you can bounce back from almost being part of a massacre I think sporting setbacks probably look quite easy to deal with.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Aussie Darcy
What has happened to the ATP? (Summary of recent months)
2
Replies
63
Views
4K
SLD76
SLD76
Qubax
Andy Roddick: A breakdown of his game.
Replies
24
Views
3K
Cup8489
Cup8489
socallefty
Which version of Djokovic has a better chance to win the FO final?
Replies
4
Views
413
TheNachoMan
T
noeledmonds
Why Federer has to Win the FO to be a GOAT contender
Replies
37
Views
2K
jhhachamp
J
sseemiller
  • Poll
Do you want ATP media notes and previews?
Replies
14
Views
4K
CBodom
C
Top