AO R3: Rafael Nadal (ESP [2] vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) [27]

Who will win?

  • Nadal in 3

    Votes: 9 23.7%
  • Nadal in 4

    Votes: 19 50.0%
  • Nadal in 5

    Votes: 2 5.3%
  • Kohlschreiber in 3

    Votes: 4 10.5%
  • Kohlschreiber in 4

    Votes: 1 2.6%
  • Kohlschreiber in 5

    Votes: 3 7.9%

  • Total voters
    38

Augustus

Hall of Fame
Karlovic stands no chance against Rafa, especially not in a slam. He'll have to serve lights out the whole time in order to even make it to a tiebreak. Maybe, if luck is on his side, he might win a set, but no chance in hell he wins three. If he does, I'll never watch tennis again, and my last post will be a picture of me eating my own shoes... :lol:
 

davey25

Banned
This is the first non clown opponent Rafa played so it was a good guage of his form. I thought he played pretty well. It was a tough match but he overall looked good. He will still have to play better to win the event. At times he got a bit too much on his heels.
 

JennyS

Hall of Fame
Anyway, I am a little tired of talking about it. Plenty of people disagree and that's fine, I hope they are right. I would like to see another 2-3 years at least of Nadal on the top of the game, but I just don't see it whatsoever.

We will see what happens. I predict he will start losing earlier and earlier in these tournaments.

Many of the best "grinders" have tended to go downhill once they get close to their mid 20's. Consider Wilander and Courier:

Wilader:
Age at last Grand Slam title/final: 24
Age at last Grand Slam semi: 25
Age at last Grand Slam quarter: 25


Courier:
Age at last Grand Slam title: 22
Age at ast Grand Slam final: one month before 23rd birthday
Age at last Grand Slam semi: age 25
Age at last Grand Slam quarter: age 25
 

P_Agony

Banned
Kohl was mentally poor (Nadal seems to have that affect) Something scary 4 Nadal fans no one has picked up on: His biggest issue today was RETURNING. Think about his next opponent and his chances there.

Yep, especially from the deuce court to Nadal's BH, he seems to either slice it back ala Federer but it isn't nearly as lethal (not low enough), or run to his right and hit a FH, but in this match the FH just landed short in the middle of the court, allowing PK to dominate the point.

It seems Nadal still isn't comfortable hitting his great topspin BH on the return, and that could prove costly, especially against a serve like Ivo's.
 

P_Agony

Banned
Karlovic stands no chance against Rafa, especially not in a slam. He'll have to serve lights out the whole time in order to even make it to a tiebreak. Maybe, if luck is on his side, he might win a set, but no chance in hell he wins three. If he does, I'll never watch tennis again, and my last post will be a picture of me eating my own shoes... :lol:

I don't know, Karlovic actually managed to hit some good baseline shots and actually got to break Ljubicic. It was facinating.
 

davey25

Banned
Courier was not nearly as good as Nadal though. he was overrated and in a weak field

Courier is not as great a player as Nadal (though he might well be just as good or better on hard courts) but he is alot better than you seem to think. First of all weak field my ass. When Courier was at his peak in 91-93 he faced Becker and Edberg still at the top, up and coming Sampras, Agassi who was actually playing some of his good tennis of his up and down career in the early 90s, Krajicek and Ivanisevic who were up and coming forces too, Stich at his career peak, Bruguera and Muster on clay, Chang who was already really good, Lendl who was past his prime but still a force. Yet he was still the best player in the World in 92, and at worst the 2nd best player in the World in 91 (behind Edberg) and 93 (behind Sampras). Obviously Sampras is a much greater player than Courier but Sampras faced a weaker field than Courier. Edberg and Courier were both done at the top of the game after Wimbledon 1993, Becker was on decline and past his prime from 91 onwards, Agassi played most of the worst tennis of his whole career from 93-98 when Pete was on top with the exception of late 94 and 95 which was some of his best ever, Stich was never the same player after 1993.
 

West Coast Ace

G.O.A.T.
This is the first non clown opponent Rafa played so it was a good guage of his form. I thought he played pretty well. It was a tough match but he overall looked good. He will still have to play better to win the event. At times he got a bit too much on his heels.
Rafa played well? Seriously? In the rallies his balls were dropping real short - others will rip them for winners on him. And PK had a good strategy of coming in - just couldn't execute. Murray and Roddick won't blow their opportunities.
 

JennyS

Hall of Fame
I don't know, Karlovic actually managed to hit some good baseline shots and actually got to break Ljubicic. It was facinating.

Karlovic breaks of serves:
Ljubicic: 2
Benneteau: 5
Stepanek: 4

Pretty impressive for him. And here's a shocking stat: he's only played 2 tiebreaks in 13 sets!
 

clayman2000

Hall of Fame
I love the Nadal bashing.

Kohlschrieber is essentially Andreev, but with a much better BH.

People were praising Fed's mental toughness and comeback against a dangerous opponent, but when Nadal plays a similar type of player he gets crucified?
 

davey25

Banned
I love the Nadal bashing.

Kohlschrieber is essentially Andreev, but with a much better BH.

People were praising Fed's mental toughness and comeback against a dangerous opponent, but when Nadal plays a similar type of player he gets crucified?

Andreev IMO is a more talented player than Kohlschreiber by a long ways. Kohlschreiber gets more out of his abilities though. I disagree with your comparision somewhat. No way does Kohlschreiber have the forehand of Andreev which IMO is better than anything Kohlschreiber has in his game including his backhand (his own best shot).
 

West Coast Ace

G.O.A.T.
I love the Nadal bashing.

Kohlschrieber is essentially Andreev, but with a much better BH.

People were praising Fed's mental toughness and comeback against a dangerous opponent, but when Nadal plays a similar type of player he gets crucified?
Maybe because one was a 1st round match and the other was a 3rd round match.

The fact that you don't make any comments about specifics of the Rafa - Kohl match makes me think you didn't see it and just another kid who can't take any criticism of Rafa.
 

TheMusicLover

G.O.A.T.
I love the Nadal bashing.

Kohlschrieber is essentially Andreev, but with a much better BH.

People were praising Fed's mental toughness and comeback against a dangerous opponent, but when Nadal plays a similar type of player he gets crucified?

Huh? I don't see any bashing of him at all. Or do you think every critical comment equals 'bashing'? :rolleyes:
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
Andreev IMO is a more talented player than Kohlschreiber by a long ways. Kohlschreiber gets more out of his abilities though. I disagree with your comparision somewhat. No way does Kohlschreiber have the forehand of Andreev which IMO is better than anything Kohlschreiber has in his game including his backhand (his own best shot).
Are you insane? Kohl has beaten Djokovic and Roddick in slams recently. What major upset did Andreev pull? Kohl is definitely the more dangerous of the 2.
 

kanamit

Hall of Fame
Anybody who is dismissing Karlovic, or pretending that Karlovic will be a cakewalk for Nadal, or claiming that Karlovic is just a serve, obviously hasn't seen Karlovic play this year. He has improved his ground and net game by leaps and bounds. If I were a Nadal fan, I'd be a little nervous.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
As I said above, the serve return was bad vs. Kohl and that will be a HUGE problem against the Doctor.

Hard to choose:
Rafa- Like style of play, hate personality
Doctor- Hate style of play, like personality. Think I'm going w/ Ivo
Dream on. Karlovic cannot sustain Rafa's groundgame and Rafa will put much more pressure on his serve than his former opponents could. This is not a fast hard court. K's serve will falter. Rafa will do it in 3 or 4 sets.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
Anybody who is dismissing Karlovic, or pretending that Karlovic will be a cakewalk for Nadal, or claiming that Karlovic is just a serve, obviously hasn't seen Karlovic play this year. He has improved his ground and net game by leaps and bounds. If I were a Nadal fan, I'd be a little nervous.
It won't be a cakewalk but it won't be insurmountable either. I expect it to be a tad easier than the Kohl match.
 

kanamit

Hall of Fame
It won't be a cakewalk but it won't be insurmountable either. I expect it to be a tad easier than the Kohl match.

LOL! Admittedly I stopped watching the match after Kohl choked away his 19th break point by not being able to put Nadal's serve into play, but I'm willing to bet that Karlovic is going to be tougher than Clownschreiber.
 

bolo

G.O.A.T.
It won't be a cakewalk but it won't be insurmountable either. I expect it to be a tad easier than the Kohl match.

Yeah it will be tricky but he will probably win and he will also get some rest. Nadal looked like he needed a breather in the 3rd set of the Kohl. match.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
Courier was not nearly as good as Nadal though. he was overrated and in a weak field
Courier lasted what? 2 years? Rafa has been at the top for 5 years already. The comparison doesn't stand. Rafa is no Courier, Hewitt or Safin. He has already proven he's not a flash in the pan (abundantly). Top 2 for 5 years, minimum of 5 titles a year for 5 years, at least 1 slam a year for 5 years, I won't even mention # of master shields because that's just ridiculous. Those are Borg/Sampras type of stats, certainly not guys like Courier.
 
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veroniquem

Bionic Poster
Yeah it will be tricky but he will probably win and he will also get some rest. Nadal looked like he needed a breather in the 3rd set of the Kohl. match.
True, he had a slump. If you're gonna have one, it's better to have it when already leading 2 sets to 0!
 

bodave2

Professional
I love the Nadal bashing.

Kohlschrieber is essentially Andreev, but with a much better BH.

People were praising Fed's mental toughness and comeback against a dangerous opponent, but when Nadal plays a similar type of player he gets crucified?

31-22 GS record Andreev
24-22 GS recod Kohlschrieber

never the less, I don't think Nadal or Fed deserve praising. They should have both cleaned the floor with the opposition. Both are not in top form I hope Nadal picks up his game. Nadal and Fed have some serious competitors coming and they will both get owned if they don't pick it up a notch.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
31-22 GS record Andreev
24-22 GS recod Kohlschrieber

never the less, I don't think Nadal or Fed deserve praising. They should have both cleaned the floor with the opposition. Both are not in top form I hope Nadal picks up his game. Nadal and Fed have some serious competitors coming and they will both get owned if they don't pick it up a notch.
Neither Murray, Delpo nor Djoko would have beaten Kohl in straights. Give me a break: Delpo got bageled by Mayer and Djoko lost a set to a much less threatening player. Murray has only played clowns so far. I expect he'll lose at least a set to Isner but we'll see.
 

bolo

G.O.A.T.
Courier and wilander aren't bad models for thinking about nadal but they aren't necessarily good ones either. Grinders seem to run out of motivation (wilander, borg) or are just not as talented (courier) as the smoother guys (compared to say sampras) and get overtaken.

The question is whether these things are going to happen to nadal. My gut is the first is not going to happen, Toni said that nadal's desire to play/win is greater than borg's. I also don't see him losing interest like wilander after wilander made it to the top. The 2nd is also not likely to happen, at least not right away, nadal still has highground on clay and probably still on grass as well.

At somepoint nadal is going to stop playing but he will very likely have put in a good 9-10 years of high level play before that happens. That's not bad at all.
 
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bodave2

Professional
Neither Murray, Delpo nor Djoko would have beaten Kohl in straights. Give me a break: Delpo got bageled by Mayer and Djoko lost a set to a much less threatening player. Murray has only played clowns so far. I expect he'll lose at least a set to Isner but we'll see.

I never said anyone is looking that great, Nikolay Davydenko looks better so far than anybody. But Nadal was not looking to Sharp IMO. Better than Roger did but not anything that would lead me to believe hes ready to defend the title. I hope I'm wrong.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
He didn't look that sharp but none of the other top players do (except for maybe Davy) so Rafa has as much chance as anyone else in the end.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
LOL! Admittedly I stopped watching the match after Kohl choked away his 19th break point by not being able to put Nadal's serve into play, but I'm willing to bet that Karlovic is going to be tougher than Clownschreiber.
Well you're wrong. Kohl's baseline game is WAY more dangerous than Karlovic's. But we'll soon see, won't we?
 

malakas

Banned
Anybody who is dismissing Karlovic, or pretending that Karlovic will be a cakewalk for Nadal, or claiming that Karlovic is just a serve, obviously hasn't seen Karlovic play this year. He has improved his ground and net game by leaps and bounds. If I were a Nadal fan, I'd be a little nervous.

hm yes.not just this year it has been going for some years now-hence the transformation from only a serve to tournament winner-.It seems everyyear he learns more and more how to play tennis and not just serve.
But still think Nads will pull through.He had already much trouble defeating Ljubo.
 

malakas

Banned
The key word in this sentence being "against Hanescu". I expect him to look sharp against Montanes too :)

exactly.So far the big guns have only faced low ranked players.Kohli as good as he is-and I am a fan- is not what you would call exactly a slam contender.

When the opposition gets harder then we will see.
 

malakas

Banned
I would also like to note my serious dissapointment on the lack of upsets so far.What happened to AO these past 2 years?:(
 

kanamit

Hall of Fame
The key word in this sentence being "against Hanescu". I expect him to look sharp against Montanes too :)

You seem to be under the mistaken assumption that a player looking sharp is somehow relative to their opponent. It's not. Fed beat Andreev and looked terrible, just as Nadal looked awful beating Clownschreiber yesterday. Fed looked GREAT Thursday regardless of who he was playing.
 

kanamit

Hall of Fame
Ya think? :)

I will assume kanamit wasn't talking about Dr. Ivo's groundies - he'll be at the net ASAP on every point.

I said that Karlovic improved his ground game and net game. He has. I didn't say that he's a favorite to beat Nadal, just that it's silly to be cocky about how Nadal is going to crush Karlovic. Especially in light of how he played against Clownschreiber.
 
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