Cumulative stats - Cilic [7] vs. Querrey [24] - WIM 2017 SF

falstaff78

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Here are cumulative stats for Cilic and Querrey through the first 5 rounds. Same story as Federer vs. Raonic.
  • Cilic more dominant overall winning more sets (88% vs. 68%), more games (59% vs. 55%), more points (56% vs. 53%) and a higher dominance ratio (1.49 vs. 1.26)
  • Furthermore he has achieved this against tougher opposition - average grass ELO ranking 20 vs. 39 (ATP ranking is lower - but grass ELO much more meaningful)
  • On serve their performance has been similiar - both held 91% of games, won 73% and 74% of points, and outperformed the top 100 vs. their respective opponents by 6 and 7 p.p.
  • Cilic's overall better numbers come from return - he's winning 27% of return games vs. 20%, and 41% of return points vs. 33%
  • And this difference would be even more stark if Querrey weren't winning an absurdly higher % of break points than other return points (19 p.p. more!)
  • Fun fact: although Querrey has played 24% more points than Cilic, he has run 16% less distance; he runs one of lowest distances per point in the entire tournament
Bookies have it 77-23 in favour of Cilic.

Enjoy!


mWjE3il.png

THy3mQ9.png


@Meles @Gary Duane @Chanwan @Sysyphus @Red Rick @BeatlesFan
 
Last edited:
mightyjeditribble

mightyjeditribble

Hall of Fame
Nice analysis, thanks. Confirms that (as expected) Cilic is the firm favourite, unless perhaps he could affected by the greater amount of running he has done ... ?
 
H

helterskelter

G.O.A.T.
Nice stats. On the quality of opposition: I think a lot of that comes from the first two rounds. Querrey had Fabbiano and then Basilashvili, while Cilic had Kohlschreiber and Mayer. Cilic's opponents are noticeably better and he beat them considerably more easily. Since then, though, my view is that a run of Tsonga, Anderson, Murray is quite a bit trickier than one of Johnson, Bautista Agut, Muller. I would say that Querrey's opponent in each of those three rounds was more difficult, and I think the only one that's even debatable is Anderson/RBA. But I'd say Anderson was playing better than RBA on Monday.

(I suppose that Murray wasn't as much more difficult than Muller as he would ordinarily be, but Murray wasn't the only one to fade towards the end). I would add that it is at least arguable that each of Querrey's three opponents is more difficult than any of Cilic's, although on the form of this tournament Muller might well be trickier than Anderson or even Tsonga.
 
Russeljones

Russeljones

Talk Tennis Guru
Cilic will live or die by his backhand. If he can hit that flat CC backhand, very few can live with him. If he is serving well along with that, he's going to be a nightmare to play against.
 
-NN-

-NN-

G.O.A.T.
If Fed and Cilic make the final, Fed won't have such an advantage on the return as against previous opponents.

I'd see it as a 55-60% match for Fed.
 
Meles

Meles

Bionic Poster
falstaff78 said:
Here are cumulative stats for Cilic and Querrey through the first 5 rounds. Same story as Federer vs. Raonic.
  • Cilic more dominant overall winning more sets (88% vs. 68%), more games (59% vs. 55%), more points (56% vs. 53%) and a higher dominance ratio (1.49 vs. 1.26)
  • Furthermore he has achieved this against tougher opposition - average grass ELO ranking 20 vs. 39 (ATP ranking is lower - but grass ELO much more meaningful)
  • On serve their performance has been similiar - both held 91% of games, won 73% and 74% of points, and outperformed the top 100 vs. their respective opponents by 6 and 7 p.p.
  • Cilic's overall better numbers come from return - he's winning 27% of return games vs. 20%, and 41% of return points vs. 33%
  • And this difference would be even more stark if Querrey weren't winning an absurdly higher % of break points than other return points (19 p.p. more!)
  • Fun fact: although Cilic has played 24% more points than Cilic, he has run 16% less distance; he runs one of lowest distances per point in the entire tournament
Bookies have it 77-23 in favour of Cilic.

Enjoy!


mWjE3il.png

THy3mQ9.png


@Meles @Gary Duane @Chanwan @Sysyphus @Red Rick @BeatlesFan
Click to expand...
Where are you getting grass ELO?
 
falstaff78

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
helterskelter said:
Nice stats. On the quality of opposition: I think a lot of that comes from the first two rounds. Querrey had Fabbiano and then Basilashvili, while Cilic had Kohlschreiber and Mayer. Cilic's opponents are noticeably better and he beat them considerably more easily. Since then, though, my view is that a run of Tsonga, Anderson, Murray is quite a bit trickier than one of Johnson, Bautista Agut, Muller. I would say that Querrey's opponent in each of those three rounds was more difficult, and I think the only one that's even debatable is Anderson/RBA. But I'd say Anderson was playing better than RBA on Monday.

(I suppose that Murray wasn't as much more difficult than Muller as he would ordinarily be, but Murray wasn't the only one to fade towards the end). I would add that it is at least arguable that each of Querrey's three opponents is more difficult than any of Cilic's, although on the form of this tournament Muller might well be trickier than Anderson or even Tsonga.
Click to expand...

Thanks.

Below are stats for the last 3 rounds. Few observations:
  • You are correct that Querrey's opposition are stronger, although they are roughly comparable.
  • The basic story doesn't change: they are about the same on serve. And Cilic is much better on return.
  • And Querrey's break rate was massively helped by an obscene clutchness of 33 p.p. He won 29% of return points and a staggering 62% of break points. This is unsustainable and will fall.
  • These numbers obviously don't take into account that Murray played injured and padded Sam's stats for two sets.

XAyJCiL.png

ymKnoyV.png
 
H

helterskelter

G.O.A.T.
Thanks. I think that makes a good comparison, because Querrey seems to have improved after a slow start to the tournament - perhaps easing himself in given he had easy competition. (Basilashvili ordinarily quite a bit better than Fabbiano, but his confidence must be low after the 18-1 mauling by Nadal in Roland Garros) - while Cilic had two tricky veterans who are comfortable on grass straight up and probably was determined to get through relatively quickly so was hyper focused for a top player in opening rounds.

In general, I think the basic story is what I'd expect across their careers: roughly equal on serve, Cilic much better on return mostly because his overall ground game is better (less reliant on playing one-strike tennis in which he dominates the point because his backhand technique is better and his movement is less clumsy).

Yeah, I recognize that Murray padded Querrey's numbers. So did Muller in the last set, though.

By the way, what was wrong with RBA? 18-6 was surprisingly one-sided. I generally don't think a top 20 player should lose that badly unless playing poorly. It might be different if he'd been playing Nadal on clay or Federer/Djokovic on grass/hard, but good though Cilic is, he's not that good.

falstaff78 said:
Thanks.

Below are stats for the last 3 rounds. Few observations:
  • You are correct that Querrey's opposition are stronger, although they are roughly comparable.
  • The basic story doesn't change: they are about the same on serve. And Cilic is much better on return.
  • And Querrey's break rate was massively helped by an obscene clutchness of 33 p.p. He won 29% of return points and a staggering 62% of break points. This is unsustainable and will fall.
  • These numbers obviously don't take into account that Murray played injured and padded Sam's stats for two sets.

XAyJCiL.png

ymKnoyV.png
Click to expand...
 
mightyrick

mightyrick

Legend
The stats said that Querrey should have been home in California mowing his lawn by now.

Regardless of what the stats say, I think it is clear that the entire match is on Querrey's racquet. Just like the last three matches have been on his racquet. If he serves well and "hangs around", Querrey is going to win. There is no doubt in my mind.
 
falstaff78

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
helterskelter said:
Thanks. I think that makes a good comparison, because Querrey seems to have improved after a slow start to the tournament - perhaps easing himself in given he had easy competition. (Basilashvili ordinarily quite a bit better than Fabbiano, but his confidence must be low after the 18-1 mauling by Nadal in Roland Garros) - while Cilic had two tricky veterans who are comfortable on grass straight up and probably was determined to get through relatively quickly so was hyper focused for a top player in opening rounds.

In general, I think the basic story is what I'd expect across their careers: roughly equal on serve, Cilic much better on return mostly because his overall ground game is better (less reliant on playing one-strike tennis in which he dominates the point because his backhand technique is better and his movement is less clumsy).

Yeah, I recognize that Murray padded Querrey's numbers. So did Muller in the last set, though.

By the way, what was wrong with RBA? 18-6 was surprisingly one-sided. I generally don't think a top 20 player should lose that badly unless playing poorly. It might be different if he'd been playing Nadal on clay or Federer/Djokovic on grass/hard, but good though Cilic is, he's not that good.
Click to expand...

RBA was 0-4 vs. the top 10 on grass coming into Wimbledon 2017. In those 4 matches he had held serve 60% of the time and broken serve 11% of the time. That's a recipe for a shellacking if you run into a pedigreed grass player like Cilic.

Also I think Cilic is generally underrated as a grass player. He's made the QFs 4 years in a row, pushed Federer to the brink last year, and is putting up ridiculously good stats, as you can see above.

So yeah I wasn't at all surprised by the result.
 
Big_Dangerous

Big_Dangerous

Talk Tennis Guru
-NN- said:
If Fed and Cilic make the final, Fed won't have such an advantage on the return as against previous opponents.

I'd see it as a 55-60% match for Fed.
Click to expand...

Well he did beat Cilic last year at much less than 100%. The fact that Fed is healthy and fit this year, plus the mental scarring that I'm sure Cilic endured essentially choking that match away might play a factor, should the two meet in the final.

FWIW, Cilic Querrey matches have been really close. They've only played 4 times, with Cilic winning all 4 times, but they've played twice at Wimbledon and both previous meeting went 5 sets. Back in 2012 they played 17-15 in the 5th set. :eek:
Querrey has a good shot in this one to be honest. I'm wondering if he's due for a win against Cilic, especially if it's another close match.
 
mightyjeditribble

mightyjeditribble

Hall of Fame
Big_Dangerous said:
Well he did beat Cilic last year at much less than 100%. The fact that Fed is healthy and fit this year, plus the mental scarring that I'm sure Cilic endured essentially choking that match away might play a factor, should the two meet in the final.

FWIW, Cilic Querrey matches have been really close. They've only played 4 times, with Cilic winning all 4 times, but they've played twice at Wimbledon and both previous meeting went 5 sets. Back in 2012 they played 17-15 in the 5th set. :eek:
Querrey has a good shot in this one to be honest. I'm wondering if he's due for a win against Cilic, especially if it's another close match.
Click to expand...
There's no such thing as being "due".

But of course, margins are small, and if the matches keep being close, the laws of probability dictate that he will win one eventually. Whether that's today ... Let's see.

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

falstaff78
  • Poll
Cumulative stats - Federer [3] vs. Berdych [11] - WIM 2017 SF
2
Replies
75
Views
5K
kalyan4fedever
kalyan4fedever
falstaff78
Cumulative stats - Federer [2] vs. Cilic [6] - AO 2018 F
Replies
25
Views
2K
Jaitock1991
Jaitock1991
falstaff78
Cumulative stats - Federer [2] vs. Berdych [19] - AO 2017 QF
Replies
17
Views
1K
Pouet156
P
falstaff78
Cumulative stats - Thiem [2] vs. Zverev [5] - USO 2020 F
Replies
5
Views
372
stringertom
stringertom
falstaff78
  • Poll
Cumulative stats - Federer [3] vs. Cilic [7] - WIM 2017 F
Replies
41
Views
4K
World Beater
W
Top