Match Stats/Report - Thiem vs Federer, Madrid quarter-final, 2019

[Waspsting]

Dominic Thiem beat Roger Federer 3-6, 7-6(11), 6-4 in the Madrid quarter-final, 2019 on clay

Thiem would go onto lose in the semi-final to eventual champion Novak Djokovic, and he would be runner-up shortly after at the French Open for the second year in a row. The two had met recently in Indian Wells final, with Thiem winning. This was Federer’s first tournament on clay since 2016

Thiem won 102 points, Federer 100

Serve Stats
Thiem...
- 1st serve percentage (67/96) 70%
- 1st serve points won (54/67) 81%
- 2nd serve points won (16/29) 55%
- Aces 8
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (34/96) 35%

Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (76/106) 72%
- 1st serve points won (60/76) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (14/30) 47%
- Aces 6
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (42/106) 40%

Serve Pattern
Thiem served...
- to FH 31%
- to BH 65%
- to Body 4%

Federer served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 64%
- to Body 2%

Return Stats
Thiem made...
- 61 (22 FH, 39 BH), including 5 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (2 FH), including 1 runaround FH
- 36 Errors, comprising...
- 17 Unforced (8 FH, 9 BH)
- 19 Forced (8 FH, 11 BH)
- Return Rate (61/103) 59%

Federer made...
- 61 (20 FH, 41 BH), including 3 runaround FHs & 2 return-approaches (both 'sneak attacks')
- 26 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (5 FH, 6 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 15 Forced (7 FH, 8 BH)
- Return Rate (61/95) 64%

Break Points
Thiem 2/12 (5 games)
Federer 2/5 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Thiem 23 (16 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Federer 27 (9 FH, 7 BH, 5 FHV, 3 BHV, 3 OH)

Thiem's FHs -3 cc (1 pass), 1 runaround dtl return pass, 7 inside-out (2 passes - 1 a return that Federer seemed to leave), 5 inside-in (1 at net)
- BHs - 2 cc (1 at net), 2 dtl (1 pass), 1 drop shot at net

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first volley BHV

Federer's FHs - 1 cc, 1 cc/longline, 1 dtl pass, 3 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 longline, 1 longline/cc at net
- BHs - 2 cc, 2 dtl, 1 inside-out, 1 longline, 1 drop shot

- 4 from serve-volley points - 3 first volleys (2 FHV, 1 BHV) & 1 second volley (1 OH), that can reasonably be called a FHV

- 1 other BHV was a swinging, non-net pass & 1 other OH was a non-net shot

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Thiem 30
- 21 Unforced (11 FH, 10 BH)... with 1 FH at net
- 9 Forced (6 FH, 2 BH, 1 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.7

Federer 42
- 25 Unforced (14 FH, 9 BH, 2 BHV)... with 1 FH at net
- 17 Forced (3 FH, 9 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 BHOH)... with 1 baseline FHV, a flagrantly forced pass attempt
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.2

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Thiem was...
- 9/13 (69%) at net, including...
- 1/2 serve-volleying, both 2nd serves

Federer was...
- 22/34 (65%) at net, including...
- 12/20 (60%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 9/14 (64%) off 1st serve and...
- 3/6 (50%) off 2nd serve
---
- 0/2 return-approaching

Match Report
Good, if unusual, serve-shot dominated match. Thiem has big power advantage from the back, Federer comes to net guilefully, particularly via serve-volleying and throws out a smorgasbord of serves to keep his opponent off-balance. Result is most fitting with Thiem having slightly better of things on a quick for clay court, though not the venue

Federer has 2 match points in the tiebreak, both return points and both dealt with with authority. Thiem has 6 set points in the same game - 3 of them before Fed has his first set/match point. According to commentary, this is the 21st time Fed had lost a match after having match point. He’d add at least one more later in the year in Wimbledon final. Probably a record, and not one anyone would want to claim

Thiem winning couple more points while serving 10 fewer isn’t too important - percentage terms, winning 50.5% points while serving 47.5%, but the break point figures -

- Thiem 2/12 (5 games), Fed 2/5 (3 games)

… is a fair reflection of his having better of things. 5 games with break points in them is high, in context of his giving up 40% freebies. He’s got Fed down 0-40 3 times and 15-40 once

Serving (good from both) and returning (more poor from both than the serving is good) are at center of match

Serve & Return
Unreturned serves - Thiem 35%, Fed 40%, are atypical for clay. Less so for Madrid than other events, but still its abnormally high. Good serving from both, both faulty returning has as big a hand in the matter. To compare -

- in semi-final, Tsitsipa 12%, Nadal 14%
- in semi-final, Djokovic 29%, Thiem 22%
- in the final, Djoko 20%, Tsitsipas 18%

In their match in Indian Wells earlier in the year, the rates were 23% and 29% respectively

Both with good in-counts (Thiem 70%, Fed 72%). Thiem with the more powerful first serve. Fed though cycles through his full repertoire - flat, slice, kick, both directions in both courts, from slowly thrown very wide to pace-ily close to Thiem and everything in between, with plenty of variety in the second serves too. He does not place the serve uniformly excellently, there’s no small amount of of in-swing zone stuff, and plenty that’s teasingly wide at not great pace

Return error breakdown -
- UEs - Thiem 17, Fed 11
- FEs - Thiem 19, Fed 15

Relatively hard UEs, but still, UEs. Kind of thing a good returner would be frustrated at missing. Both players missing a lot, and blackmark next to both players returning

Fed plays around with return position some, rarely falling well back to take second returns. Most of the time, he takes return early, blocking them back as he likes to. His timing is pretty good and the blocks more often than his norm don’t leave Thiem excess time to wind up. The odd firm smack longline or dtl with BH to open side of court, couple of ‘SABRs’ (loses both, leaving sitting duck passes). Some pseudo-drop returns sliced short to draw Thiem forward. Just 3 runaround FHs isn’t a good move. He doesn’t blast them, but loops them with heavy spin, deep almost like Nadal and its good enough to keep Thiem honest. Not his usual and perhaps Thiem, generally a fine player of the high ball, might have got a grip on it more where it a more regular thing - but under-use of the shot by Fed

High kickers, including first serve ones, to BH cause Fed some trouble. Tries to take them early to keep them from getting too high, without much success. Good few misses and usually, soft return when not. His movements are below average - both for the return and in play. Shot tolerance on return is fine, less so in rallies (more on that later)

It looks like Fed just isn’t a very good returner at this stage of his career. In general (time free), like everyone he has good days and not so good ones, but his movement at least is something that could always be counted on. Not here. And certainly doesn’t have the reactions to take Thiem’s powerful first serve early. He’d employed a similar strategy in their Indian Wells finals earlier in the year - with similar not good results

Thiem more likely is just kept off guard by the vast variations Fed serves down, enhanced still more with unpredictable serve-volleying (he serve-volleys 20% off first serves and 22% off seconds). Only God and Federer knows what the next serve is likely to be. Fed serves good lot of high kickers to Thiem’s BH too (he doesn’t overly depend on any one serve), and Thiem’s at most, a bit more reliable at handling it then Fed is (he tends to return neutrally rather than weakly). Thiem usually returns from well back, though is forced to move forward to counter-act the random serve-volley plays

17/36 UEs isn’t pretty, but less of a blackmark against Thiem than Fed. He’s probably experienced enough that something like variation shouldn’t disrupt him to the extent it does, but this is as varied and random a mix of serving from Fed as there can be

 

[Waspsting]

Gist of all that is the grass court’ish freebie rate (and first serve points won - Thiem’s 81%, Fed 79%) accounting for comfy or easy holds most of the time. And things are left to be played out on second serve points

Second serve points won - Thiem 55%, Fed 47%

Significant superiority for Thiem, but with such high in-counts and such success behind first serves, not necessarily decisive

Play - Baseline & Net
Thiem has substantial power advantage from back, Fed hangs in smartly best he can (which isn’t great, but he rarely does anything stupid) and is even able to find some gorgeous, placement-based point ending shots from there while relying on net play as first line of offence

Winners - Thiem 23, Fed 27
Errors Forced - Thiem 17, Fed 9
UEs - Thiem 21, Fed 25

For starters, both players with more winners than UEs on clay is very rare and speaks to a well-played match. More so than is warranted, as its not a baseline match, with Fed playing an all-court game and relying primarily on net play for offence (though he hits some gorgeous ground winners, particularly BHs)

Off the ground, Thiem is much more powerful, but he keeps that power in check (with Fed’s variety encouraging him too)

Non-pass, ground winners read Thiem 16, Fed 15
(Thiem also has 5 passing winners, to Fed’s 1)

In context of the hitting, that’s excellent from Fed’s point of view. He’s patient and crafty in mixing up pace of his shots - BH does all kinds of slicey stuff, and he even goes with high top-spin with the FH at times, but excellent shot selection in looking for the point ending shot. He’s not drawing short or weak balls to dispatch or even drawing many weak returns, so finding such shots and hanging even with the bigger hitter is very good from Fed

With both wings starring, if anything, the BH more. 9 FH winners include a pass and net shot, but all 7 BHs are ground-to-ground (1 a putaway from mid-court against a poor attempt at a drop shot). Meanwhile, FH with match high 14 UEs, BH match low 9 (not big difference, with Thiem having 11 and 10 off his 2 shots)

Good, but short of Thiem’s powerhouse FH that boasts by far match high 16 winners (next highest is 9). And the biggest difference is in the FEs

Thiem has 9 total. Fed has 9 BHs and 8 others. He’s not quick to move and Thiem’s FH inside-out is the main error forcer there. That rally looks a mismatch - heavy FHs from Thiem, feeble BH resistance from Fed, but they are ‘rallies’ at least; Thiem doesn’t blast point ending FH inside-outs, he hits big ones to break down Fed’s BH. Even Thiem’s hefty BH cc’s have Fed pushed back, but Fed neatly keeps the UEs down (BH UEs - Thiem 10, Fed 9)

Rallying to net -
- Thiem 8/11, Fed 10/12

Both very successful and for Fed, not much coming forward. In context of how much he trails in hitting, its high. If he was playing a baseline game with hitting balance being what it is, he might be coming to net just to shake hands. Meanwhile, good lot of Thiem’s approaches are his being drawn forward by Fed’s short slices

Bigger part of Fed’s net game is the serve-volleying, which he does 20 times, about 20% off the time off both serves. Winning 60% isn’t unduly high, but good enough. Some lovely volleys from Fed

For all the faltering on return, its 2 return winners that prove the most crucial points of the match. Thiem grabs the decisive mini-break with a runaround FH dtl pass winner. He wouldn’t have been sure Fed would 2nd serve-volley ahead of time, though would have been alert to the possibility of it and lands the ball perfectly wide

And he secures decisive break in the third set with FH inside-out pass winner on the stretch, which Fed probably misjudges and lets go. Usually, you’d be extra cautious in doing that in high altitude and not Fed’s finest moment there

His finest moments though are gorgeous. Running BH inside-out winner, a regal BH cc dispatched with class and a perfect, disguised drop BHV from a sneak in as he sees Thiem about to slice all stand out. For Thiem, a falling back FH inside-in winner against a deep ball is reminscient of the kinds of FHs Fed used to hit not infrequently in his heydey

Match Progression
Serve-bottish first set (or to be more accurate, whatever the opposite of ‘return-bottish’ is), with lots of freebies for both players. As much due to faulty returning as good serving

Fed makes 21/25 first serves, including his first 15, but has just 2 aces (including first point of match). Lots of variety to his serving of pace, of placement, of type and he serve-volleys occasionally as a surprise. He’s good with the just-wide enough to draw error serves - they’re more makeable than not, but if they’re drawing errors, why go for more?

Fed tries to take returns early but isn’t upto handling Thiem’s good pace on the serve. Misses lots of regulation returns being rushed from around the baseline. Plays with the return too, looking for slicey, pseudo-drop returns and throws in a ‘sneak attack’

Just the one break, and it’s a poor game by Thiem. Fed holds to open, finishing with a nice third ball BH dtl winner. And Thiem’s broken in 10 point game right after.There’s a double fault and 4 third ball ground UEs (also 2 third ball ground winners) by Thiem against just normal returns. Brains are one of the main reason Thiem hasn’t reached his potential - and its in full show here

Rest of set is comfy holds. Thiem slams down 3 aces in one of his holds and has 4 for the set

Action picks up in the second set, with there being more rallies in the first half of it and Thiem nailing some great shots. It falls back to serve-shot dominant in second half, but the serving during that period is a step up from the first set

Thiem has better of the set. He has 5 break points across 2 games (15-40 and 0-40), Fed has none. Going into ‘breaker, Thiem loses just 4 points in holding 6 times, Fed 9

Thiem has better of the ‘breaker too and reaches 6-4, with a return point to come. He has 3 set points before Fed has the first of his 2 set/match points (both of them return points) and finally converts the 6th one

Thiem opens ‘breaker with a third ball FH error, and after 4 unreturned serves, Fed hands back the favour to keep things at 3-3. Thiem grabs the mini by pounding down Fed’s BH before finishing with a FH inside-in winner to reach 6-4

That’s 6-5 after a Fed unreturned serve, but now its Thiem’s serve. Fed works Thiem over from the baseline artfully before finishing with a BH drop shot winner to level at 6-6

Both of Fed’s match points are on Thiem’s serve. He misses a routine first return on the first, taking a calculated risk of smacking it longline early (worth the risk, though it fails) to make things 8-8. And at 10-9, gets a second serve that he puts in play, but Thiem’s FH inside-out is too much for his BH to handle

At 11-11, Thiem runsaround a BH to strike a second return, that Fed happens to come in behind. He places the ball perfectly dtl for a winner. Fed had won his only other 2nd serve-volley in the game on point 7 with a beautiful, under-net first FHV winner

Thiem putsaway an OH to end the set and push match into decider

That decider progresses beautifully, with Thiem again having better of it. He’s got Fed in trouble in opening game, and some good volleys and strong serves go into Fed saving a break point to hold it. And he breaks second times of asking, with Fed on cusp of again squeezing out off a 0-40 hold, but this time, Thiem’s big FH inside-in gets him the break to 30

Fed has his first break points since the second game of the match, where he plays smartly from the back in picking his moments to go for shots (while making returns, not at all a given in this match). Its Thiem’s FH that delivers the key blows to see him hold

Good game by Fed to break back for 4-4, with a couple of returns to the baseline to start the game and decent, deep returns towards the end (though Thiem does stumble in making UEs against them)

A better one by Thiem to break right back - strong returns, followed up by domineering FHs and ending with FH winners gets him to 0-40 again. Fed saves first 2 break points serve-volleying and is at it again on the last of them. Fed stretches out to push a return FH inside-out, that Fed seems to leave, only for it to land near the baseline for a winner

Thiem serves out to 15. One last flourish from Fed down 40-0 as he swipes away a FH inside-out winner off his own, before Thiem draws a routine BH error to end things

Summing up, good though flawed match. Thiem is far more powerful off the ground and his FH in particular is damaging, with back-away inside-out and inside-ins played with equal comfort and both scoring. Federer is a bit slow in moving and isn’t upto handling pace of Thiem’s hits, especially to his BH but is clever in mixing up his shots, keeping his errors low and when he chooses to attack, picks his moments and executes regularly. He also uses net to attack, particularly serve-volleys, and volleys beautifully up there, against not inconsiderable opposition in Thiem’s power passes

More than court action, match is shaped by serve-return complex. Strong serving from both - with seemingly endless variety behind Federer’s showing, power Thiem’s - but often inept returning, with both players missing bundles of makeable returns

So many freebies won with the serve makes chances for returner scarce, and Thiem is better enough in court action that odds would favour him coming out on top as he ends up doing

Stats for Thiem’s semi-final with Novak Djokovic - Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Thiem, Madrid semi-final, 2019 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

 

[Angrybirdstar]

It looks like Fed just isn’t a very good returner at this stage of his career. In general (time free), like everyone he has good days and not so good ones, but his movement at least is something that could always be counted on. Not here. And certainly doesn’t have the reactions to take Thiem’s powerful first serve early. He’d employed a similar strategy in their Indian Wells finals earlier in the year - with similar not good results

the odd thing to me is that while this aligns with what i saw of Federer at this time, stats seem to suggest that he was miserable in 2018 but still decent in 2017 and 2019, especially considering the deterioration of his movement and groundstrokes. i think he may have been decent at putting returns in play and giving himself something to work with but not able to trouble elite servers/+1ers?

he secures decisive break in the third set with FH inside-out pass winner on the stretch, which Fed probably misjudges and lets go. Usually, you’d be extra cautious in doing that in high altitude

why do you think this? i would think that altitude means less air resistance and more balls going long, so in fact you wouldn't have to be as careful against passes

 

[Sport]

Fantastic insight of a trepidant battle.

 

[Waspsting]

...stats seem to suggest that (Federer) was miserable (on the return) in 2018 but still decent in 2017 and 2019, especially considering the deterioration of his movement and groundstrokes. i think he may have been decent at putting returns in play and giving himself something to work with but not able to trouble elite servers/+1ers?

Was he breaking much against anyone - not just elite servers/+1ers - around the whole period?
Would have to check stats on that

Couple of things I remember of top of my head

- '18 Aus final vs Cilic... just managing to poke return back to Cilic's BH is good enough, with Cilic mucking up. Its quick court and returning a serve that big to even that minimal a standard is decent. I'd blame Cilic for mucking up for how that went, but maybe its something that most players weren't able to do?

- '18 Cincy final vs Djokovic... the most atrocious returning I've seen from Federer. Or anyone else for that matter

'19 Wimb semi vs Nadal... gives up massive unreturned rate, to Nadal off all people, but returns deftly and troublingly what he does. That's a good ploy if your confident of being able to hold regularly. I thought he could have done the same in the final but suspect he wasn't confident of being able to hold (even though he did for most of match)

'17 US Open vs del Potro (which I haven't statted and am going on memory with) - has a really hard time returning that hefty serve, standing close in. Its a slow court and feeling I got was he just isn't good enough to return from that close up

It stood out next to how safely Nadal returned Delpo, standing well back

Doesn't return either Thiem or Delpo too well in their Indian Wells finals

As for his grounstrokes deteriorating - he's been up and down. 2014 was pretty good year for him, especially coming off 2013
His groundies are pretty feeble. I think worse than this 2018/19 period. He's getting overpowered by David Ferrer in Cincy and downright blasted off court by Tsonga in Canada

why do you think this? i would think that altitude means less air resistance and more balls going long, so in fact you wouldn't have to be as careful against passes

My reasoning is when in doubt, play the ball (especially down break point late in the decider)
And logically, you should be in more doubt in irregular conditions of altitude that your not overly familiar with (leaving aside how crucial the point is)

He doesn't seem to even change his mind, the way a player does when he lifts his racquet, but pulls it away at end. He doesn't even lift his racquet, so he must have no doubts

Fantastic insight of a trepidant battle.

I think this is the first time I've had to use a dictionary for something someone said on this forum

 

[Pheasant]

Great match breakdown as always, @Waspsting We appreciate the great work.

I was impressed watching this; mainly since the 37 1/2 year old Fed had only played two matches on clay since 2016. The old guy was rusty as hell on that surface(by far his worst surface), yet was able to go to match point against peak Thiem. I truly thought going in that Thiem would win 6-2, 6-1 going in. This is a match where Fed impressed the heck out of me and disappointed me at the same time(another damn match lost while having match point).

Looking back now, I’m proud of Fed’s valiant effort here. He did quite well, considering all things.

 

[Angrybirdstar]

Was he breaking much against anyone - not just elite servers/+1ers - around the whole period?

comparing to '15 where he broke 30.2% of the time on hard courts, he was 26.5, 25.1, and 27.1% from '17-19. that'd be good for top 5-10ish out of the top 50 in the past few years. not an elite return game in any absolute sense but good enough to get by with his service game. similar sorts of tiering and trend if you separate by return points or filter by better opposition.

 

[Waspsting]

comparing to '15 where he broke 30.2% of the time on hard courts, he was 26.5, 25.1, and 27.1% from '17-19.

Thanks
Better in '19 than '17
Wouldn't have expected that

Far as I recall, the deadly BH thing just lasted in early hard court season in '17 and was gone by autumn, but that looked a pretty deadly Federer. Probably only time in his career where I felt there's no safe place to go to to him

I was impressed watching this; mainly since the 37 1/2 year old Fed had only played two matches on clay since 2016. The old guy was rusty as hell on that surface(by far his worst surface), yet was able to go to match point against peak Thiem. I truly thought going in that Thiem would win 6-2, 6-1 going in. This is a match where Fed impressed the heck out of me and disappointed me at the same time(another damn match lost while having match point).

Looking back now, I’m proud of Fed’s valiant effort here. He did quite well, considering all things.

Agreed. Fed could be pretty crafty. Playing on clay after so long against a mammoth hitter like Thiem... wouldn't have expected much. But he works him over every which way other than grinding and hammering groundies (what exactly does that leave on clay?)

Crazy winds in the French Open semi might even have equalized things to give Fed lottery chances against Nadal, but Nadal with a with a masterclass there (well beyond his form for the season)
And that's taking for granted Fed's ability to reach the semis there in the first place, which is itself is outstanding