Sinner on the verge of crossing 2200 ELO points

travlerajm

Talk Tennis Guru
ELO is a chess statistic which assumes equal weight across all matches (no surface weighting, and no tournament weighting - a 250 is viewed the same as a Slam) and for this reason has very little place in the context of informed tennis discussion.
I would agree.

There are many reasons why the best players tend to perform best in the slams. And for some of those reasons, the best players tend to underperform in other tournaments.

ELO would be more useful, in my opinion, if it was restricted to slam ELO.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
I would agree.

There are many reasons why the best players tend to perform best in the slams. And for some of those reasons, the best players tend to underperform in other tournaments.

ELO would be more useful, in my opinion, if it was restricted to slam ELO.
That's a good suggesion but the top players rarely meet in slams. So we are mostly looking at top players beating some bottom feeders to reach QF/Semis of slams?
 

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
I would agree.

There are many reasons why the best players tend to perform best in the slams. And for some of those reasons, the best players tend to underperform in other tournaments.

ELO would be more useful, in my opinion, if it was restricted to slam ELO.
That’s the other thing. Bo5 tennis compared to Bo3 tennis is fundamentally a different proposition.
 

socallefty

G.O.A.T.
At the end of the day in tennis, we look at records at the big tournaments (Slams, ATP Finals, Masters 1000) with a higher rating weighing factor to compare players. If ELO doesn’t do that, then it is not much use for me in terms of looking at relative caliber of different players.

There were always top players who performed best at big tournaments and were prone to upsets at smaller events - this was particularly true before the Big 3 era where players were less professional with more drinking/drugs/late-night partying and there was less surface speed homogenity. ELO probably wouldn’t judge how tough they could be in Slams or Masters tournaments accurately.

Even players who are very professional are more likely to do so when they are younger and feel like they can sustain that intensity throughout the year at every single tournament they play. Older players will play less tournaments and also look at small tournaments more as tuneups to help them peak at Slams rather than go all out all the time. So, again ELO might not reflect how tough these older players can be at Slams.

Also the ability to win Bestof3 matches over a week in other tournaments doesn’t always directly correlate to the ability to win Bestof5 matches over two weeks to win Slams. Some players are really good at knowing how to tune their level/intensity during a five-set match and over 2 weeks with rest days while others don’t know how to do that mentally or get physically affected more by Bestof5 matches. Again ELO wouldn’t catch these nuances well.

I think the ATP system of ratings over 12 months with weighing based on the tournament size/prestige gives a pretty good indication of the relative rankings of players as fans would rate them also. I wish they would publish surface ratings also for clay, outdoor/indoor hard courts, grass over two years as it would give a pretty good idea of the relative capability of players when they play on different surfaces also.
 
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jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
No, I was referring to peak ELO.

Ferrer was nowhere near the level of peak Wawrinka, Safin and Del Potro.

Even Nishikori has higher peak ELO than Wawrinka and Safin... ELO is comedy.
This is if you have no idea of how Elo works (and it's Elo, named after Arpad Elo, not "ELO")

Elo punishes you for "bad" losses to players with a low Elo, and the reality is guys like Wawrinka and Safin had a number of bad losses even in their best seasons, which absolutely tanks their Elo. Don't want a bad Elo? Then don't lose to guys like Haase or Delbonis in your best season.

Safin lost to a 472nd ranked qualifier at the 2000 AO, 86th ranked Damm at 2000 Wimby, and ended the year ranked #1. An objective system can't just discard losses like these
 
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junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
This is if you have no idea of how Elo works (and it's Elo, named after Arpad Elo, not "ELO")

Elo punishes you for "bad" losses to players with a low Elo, and the reality is guys like Wawrinka and Safin had a number of bad losses even in their best seasons, which absolutely tanks their Elo. Don't want a bad Elo? Then don't lose to guys like Haase or Delbonis in your best season.

Safin lost to a 472nd ranked qualifier at the 2000 AO, 86th ranked Damm at 2000 Wimby, and ended the year ranked #1. An objective system can't just discard losses like these

There aren't really meaningful losses in tennis. Stan beat the very best on the biggest stages. Unlike Ferrer.

Want a good Elo? You don't have to win slams, but by all means make sure you don't lose to low ranked players!
 
I still can't comprehend the Djoker peak of 2470 at 29 . Alcaraz was already mighty with 2239 at only 20. Murray 2347 at almost 30. I guess we will see the Sinner peak only after 27.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2023-11-27
Rank​
Player​
Age​
Elo​
Peak Age​
Peak Elo​
1​
36.4​
2226.7​
28.8​
2470.3​
2​
22.2​
2196.7​
22.2​
2196.7​
3​
20.5​
2148.8​
20.2​
2239.7​
4​
27.7​
2104.4​
25.9​
2191.9​
5​
26.5​
2024.0​
24.7​
2161.7​
6​
26.0​
2020.5​
23.4​
2106.2​
7​
32.4​
2010.9​
23.2​
2090.6​
8​
26.7​
1983.1​
26.7​
1998.8​
9​
25.2​
1973.9​
22.8​
2133.4​
10​
26.0​
1946.6​
25.4​
2041.3​
11​
24.7​
1945.1​
20.8​
1993.5​
12​
20.5​
1936.0​
20.0​
2070.1​
13​
25.3​
1930.4​
25.3​
1930.4​
14​
27.3​
1899.7​
26.2​
2072.6​
15​
23.2​
1898.1​
22.2​
2053.1​
16​
24.8​
1895.1​
23.4​
2064.0​
17​
21.0​
1892.4​
21.0​
1924.3​
18​
26.4​
1879.8​
25.8​
1953.3​
19​
21.9​
1876.2​
21.4​
1924.1​
20​
28.0​
1875.9​
28.0​
1893.0​
21​
37.1​
1874.8​
28.6​
2068.0​
22​
23.3​
1871.3​
22.5​
2005.7​
23​
27.4​
1870.5​
22.4​
2015.3​
24​
27.3​
1870.5​
25.5​
1924.9​
25​
25.2​
1864.7​
24.8​
1938.5​
26​
25.7​
1863.5​
25.4​
1960.6​
27​
26.2​
1857.7​
26.2​
1870.9​
28​
24.4​
1856.2​
21.9​
1928.4​
29​
36.4​
1855.0​
29.6​
2347.2​
30​
35.3​
1852.9​
29.5​
1884.7​
What can't you comprehend?
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
There aren't really meaningful losses in tennis. Stan beat the very best on the biggest stages. Unlike Ferrer.
In order to accurately calculate Elo, you have to factor in losses. No way around it.

A player who can consistently beat those rated lower than him will fare better in Elo than a guy who is wildly inconsistent but can go on a tear for a tournament or two. That's just the nature of the algorithm.
 

Jonesy

Legend
This is if you have no idea of how Elo works (and it's Elo, named after Arpad Elo, not "ELO")

Elo punishes you for "bad" losses to players with a low Elo, and the reality is guys like Wawrinka and Safin had a number of bad losses even in their best seasons, which absolutely tanks their Elo. Don't want a bad Elo? Then don't lose to guys like Haase or Delbonis in your best season.

Safin lost to a 472nd ranked qualifier at the 2000 AO, 86th ranked Damm at 2000 Wimby, and ended the year ranked #1. An objective system can't just discard losses like these
Thank goodness Kuerten exists.
 

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
In order to accurately calculate Elo, you have to factor in losses. No way around it.

A player who can consistently beat those rated lower than him will fare better in Elo than a guy who is wildly inconsistent but can go on a tear for a tournament or two. That's just the nature of the algorithm.

Not a good system for measuring level in tennis, since big titles is what makes a great tennis career.

Ranking Ferrer above Wawrinka is only possible when consulting Elo. Every human resource will agree Wawrinka is a better tennis player, unless that human resource is mad as a hatter :D
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
I doubt pro players wake up and worry about their Elo. They want to win big titles and get higher rankings, more prize money plus earn a place in tennis history.
But I also don't think a tennis player of Safin's caliber walks away from a match where loses 67 46 16 to a 472nd ranked qualifier thinking he did a great job
 

Wander

Hall of Fame
ELO is a chess statistic which assumes equal weight across all matches (no surface weighting, and no tournament weighting - a 250 is viewed the same as a Slam) and for this reason has very little place in the context of informed tennis discussion.

I don't think this is fair. The problem is not that Elo (it's Elo, not ELO by the way) has little place in informed tennis discussion but that people are not sufficiently informed on how Elo works leading to confusion and frustration on how it rates different players from history and present.

Some people appear to think intuitively that Elo peak should be representative of the highest level they ever saw a player perform at. But it would in reality be practically impossible to create a mathematical formula to express such a thing.

You could, however, calculate individual tournament Elo performances, and that would actually spit out a number representative of the incredible feat that someone like Wawrinka pulled off at the Slams he managed to win.

But standard Elo itself is not really a "peak level" number. It's more of a "number representing the level of match-winning consistency this player is performing at".

In other words, it favours players who go deep in tournaments consistently over players who sometimes win a tournament and other times crash out in the first week. When you think about how exactly it works (it's not that complicated!), this all makes sense and you can use Elo appropriately in "informed tennis discussion".

Just don't try to use it to try to claim something it's not capable of measuring; like that peak Ferrer would've beaten peak Safin or Wawrinka at their Slam winning tournaments or something weird like that.
 

socallefty

G.O.A.T.
But I also don't think a tennis player of Safin's caliber walks away from a match where loses 67 46 16 to a 472nd ranked qualifier thinking he did a great job
From the rumors of how Safin liked to party, he probably would have suffered the loss due to playing hungover after a late night with a lot of group ‘stretching exercises’ during the night. Safin probably thought the night was worth it as that is how he lived his life. It would not have made him any less dangerous if he showed up sober to play a Slam although one could project that he probably didn’t stop partying during the Slam also.
 

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
I don't think this is fair. The problem is not that Elo (it's Elo, not ELO by the way) has little place in informed tennis discussion but that people are not sufficiently informed on how Elo works leading to confusion and frustration on how it rates different players from history and present.

Some people appear to think intuitively that Elo peak should be representative of the highest level they ever saw a player perform at. But it would in reality be practically impossible to create a mathematical formula to express such a thing.

You could, however, calculate individual tournament Elo performances, and that would actually spit out a number representative of the incredible feat that someone like Wawrinka pulled off at the Slams he managed to win.

But standard Elo itself is not really a "peak level" number. It's more of a "number representing the level of match-winning consistency this player is performing at".

In other words, it favours players who go deep in tournaments consistently over players who sometimes win a tournament and other times crash out in the first week. When you think about how exactly it works (it's not that complicated!), this all makes sense and you can use Elo appropriately in "informed tennis discussion".

Just don't try to use it to try to claim something it's not capable of measuring; like that peak Ferrer would've beaten peak Safin or Wawrinka at their Slam winning tournaments or something weird like that.
Ferrer was 7-7 over his career against Wawrinka. Not bad for such a "weak" player
 

McGradey

Hall of Fame
Nothing wrong with spreadsheets. We are not making stuff up.
Whatever floats your boat.
But I don't buy the notion that sports-as-a-spreadsheet is all about transparency and objectivity — stats are often curated to support narratives in much the same way that someone might make a rogue claim based on their eye test.
 
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nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Then you can dispute the stats. With other stats.


Eye test is people believing they saw something else than what they actually had seen.
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
Again: Referring to peak ELO.

You're saying peak Ferrer is better than peak Wawrinka and Safin - the guys who beat peak Fed, Nad, Djok?

If so, we'll just have to disagree. Ferrer did nothing, He reached one slam final and lost in straight sets.

You're arguing with a Bot
 

FeroBango

Hall of Fame
But be honest, you really think Zverev 2021 beats Djokovic 2023 in the finals of the ATP finals with that serving performance?

Djokovic served 20 aces against Sinner in round robin and lost. You see Zverev 2021 winning that match under those circumstances?
It would be a drastically different match. 2021 Olympics Zverev hit different (no intended pun). He would have hit as many aces as Novak for starters.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
For me it is always stats + eye. One of the great things about tennis is that it is decided with a strange point scoring system in a tourney player against player on quite different surfaces. Nadal is likely the best example of a player dominating a single competition for which he was almost built and where his particular matchup advantage against his first big rival was especially pronounced.

Elo, yElo, surfaceElo and synthetic Elo are all a great anchor but lots of specifics are playing a role before each future match. Sinner had a couple of bad matchups and naturally to deal more and more with various tactics to counter his great power baseline game. As he is maturing the weight of the specific matchup is arguably decreasing as he can deal better with those changes.
 

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
Ferrer was 7-7 over his career against Wawrinka. Not bad for such a "weak" player
After Stan cleaned up his mental game, he won all his matches against Ferrer.

Ferrer was not a weak player, but he was weak in big matches. Stan is the opposite.
 

NatF

Bionic Poster
In order to accurately calculate Elo, you have to factor in losses. No way around it.

A player who can consistently beat those rated lower than him will fare better in Elo than a guy who is wildly inconsistent but can go on a tear for a tournament or two. That's just the nature of the algorithm.
The latter being a clearly more dangerous player to meet in a slam or big tournament is why Elo sucks for grading difficulty of draws.
 

SonnyT

Legend
Peak ELO tend to coincide with peak year of an individual player, therefore I give it more credence. For example, Federer had his peak ELO in '05, which was near the height of his career. Djokovic had his peak ELO during AO '16 while winning 4 straight slams. Murray had his peak ELO in Nov. '16, the only stretch where he was ranked #1.

If we know ELO for each player for each year, we'd know if that player is advancing or receding. For example, Fedfans contend that Federer recede drastically during the 10's. We can settle that by ELO!
 

Jonesy

Legend
Elo is a very useful thing if you want to trigger Fed fans. But outside that it is useless if a player doesn't win when it matters.

Sinner still needs at least a year for maturing mentally and building the body that will keep him consistent on the tour.

He is a late starter so he has the benefit of time on his side.
 

Neptune

Hall of Fame
Of course but this thread isn't about the ATP ranking.
No ranking system is flawless, but both the Elo and ATP systems are well-developed and transparent, far superior to relying on biased feelings or eyetest.
Elo, in particular, excels even better than the ATP ranking in predicting match outcomes, something important to keep in mind.
 

AnOctorokForDinner

Talk Tennis Guru
No ranking system is flawless, but both the Elo and ATP systems are well-developed and transparent, far superior to relying on biased feelings or eyetest.
Elo, in particular, excels even better than the ATP ranking in predicting match outcomes, something important to keep in mind.

Implying that match prediction is relevant.
 

SonnyT

Legend
No ranking system is flawless, but both the Elo and ATP systems are well-developed and transparent, far superior to relying on biased feelings or eyetest.
Elo, in particular, excels even better than the ATP ranking in predicting match outcomes, something important to keep in mind.
You can compare a player's ELO with his opponents and with himself, to see his progress/decline.
 

socallefty

G.O.A.T.
Elo doesn’t adjust to older players playing less tournaments than they used to. Djokovic was hard to beat in the tournaments he played in 2023, but he played so much less than in other dominant years in 2011, 2015 etc. that his Elo is much lower. But his dominance over the field when it mattered in big tournaments was as great.
 
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