Toni Nadal : Rafael Nadal will definitely win 19 slams thanks to Roland Garros

tennis4me

Hall of Fame
This eternal debate of GOAT will never be settled between the two fan bases. Unless there's an official GOAT definition from ATP, it will just be individual's interpretation. It's all relative to one's definition.

As a fan of one, but not a hater of the other (just less of a fan of the other), I consider them both GOAT in their own unique ways. Always enjoy watching both even if I may be rooting only for one of them. Just glad that they're both still around playing. My $.02
 

octogon

Hall of Fame
He's had a couple of decent results indoor but they fit a rank and file top 10 guy like Berdych not an ATG and certainly not overall GOAT. In 10+ years on tour to have that few tournament wins indoor is actually pretty shocking tbh.

I'll grant you that indoors is a condition as you say not a surface, but its an important one and the WTF is the 5th most important tournament of the year.

As much as Nadal fans run and hide from it the WTF is a Grand Canyon sized hole in Rafa's resume and all the RG titles you stack up cant hide it.

Interesting goalpost shift. He's gone from being coompletely "helpless" indoors to being a top 10 player indoors. Okay...

It's just a condition, and it's never been held as a criteria for GOAT, aside from desperate Federer fans who see the slam record falling to Nadal, and want to give more importance to everything else Fed has done.

It's just making up nonsense. Olympic Singles Gold has been an important target for champions for many years now. THe fact that it's called the Golden Slam (4 Grand Slams + Olympic Singles gold) is an argument that Olympic singles is actually the most important tournament outside the slams in terms of legacy. Nadal has it. Fed desperately wanted it, but never will. Hole in his resume. Federer can't be GOAT without Olympic singles gold.

I'm not stupid enough to really claim that, but i do believe if Roger had Olympic Singles Gold and Rafa didn't, Federer fans would be touting that as a big "hole" in Rafa's resume.

At the end of the day it's about the slams, baby. Not WTF's or Masters (where Nadal holds the record) or even Olympics. The slams is the number every single casual fan will remember when GOAT is talked about.
 

TennisATP

Professional
Try to be more accurate rather than being deceptive.

Federer
Grass - 8
Rebound Ace - 3
Plexicushion - 2
DecoTurf - 5
Clay - 1

Nadal
Grass - 2
Rebound Ace - 0
Plexicushion - 1
DecoTurf - 3
Clay - 10

Nadal wasn't winning any slams outside of RG pre-2007 as he was not in his full prime yet so that rebound ace stat is irrelevant to him. In tennis there are 3 surfaces: clay, grass and hardcourt. Stop being butthurt, nobody said that Nadal won on decoturf last week except you, they said hardcourt :rolleyes:
 

metsman

G.O.A.T.
All of us are really embarrassing ourselves here.

Do all of you realize that this question of better slam spread is not a subjective opinion? There is a simple statistical measure called standard deviation to find out which spread of data is more uniform in distribution. A lower value of S.D. indicates a tighter distribution around the mean, while higher S.D. values indicate large variation in the data points.
This is basic high school math. Come on, people.

Fed's data set of 8,5,5,1 has a S.D. value of 2.487468.
Rafa's data set of 10,3,2,1 has a S.D. value of 3.5355.

Fed's slam wins spread is more uniform than Rafa's by a significant margin.

Next question.
to be fair, Nadal's SD is lower if you go by surface but it's a bit disingenuous to consider AO and USO as one surface considering how differently they at least used to play.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
... set by someone else, when you are 31.

character_themuppets_gonzo_9c3596c6.jpeg


Even the spanish-writing media think that the Nadal has no brain of his own.

xlsemanalnoticia--300x300.jpg


"I don't read books" -Roger Federer, contemporary philosopher.


 

Sidespin

New User
What I find interesting is that Toni brought up matching the Federer 19 Majors, as well as Moya in another interview saying they need to correct the latest head2head results with Federer. So it's obviously something on the mind of the Nadal camp. It's not a bad thing, but I just chuckle when I hear the athletes mouth these platitudes that they don't consider such things. Of course they are more than aware of all these stats and records...
 
Few years ago, Nadal's target was to win 17 slams to catch Roger. Today, the target is 19.

In a few more years, the target could be at 21.
So true. . What's more, it could be "at 22 too."​

That said, . a polite question (just curious): . why is it that you referred to one player by his last name and another player by his first name ? ?​


All of us are really embarrassing ourselves here.:rolleyes:
Do all of you realize that this question of better slam spread is not a subjective opinion ..simple statistical:confused: measure called standard deviation to find out ......o_O..... data points. ? is a
This is basic high school math. Come on, people.:rolleyes:
Fed's data set of 8,5,5,1 has a S.D. value of 2.487468.
RNext question.:rolleyes::rolleyes:
Establishing once and for all that ""MY favorite MALE tennis idol is better than YOUR favorite MALE tennis idol" should be child's play: . just throw out a couple of applied math foundations along with some linear equations, exponents, polynomials, logarithms ...what have you ....in addition to a lot of sundry quadratic bullshlt. . wowwee..

Again, mere child's play - why in heaven's name are we continuing to embarrass ourselves here?

good thread: . * 4 honks

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KINGROGER

G.O.A.T.
Nadal wasn't winning any slams outside of RG pre-2007 as he was not in his full prime yet so that rebound ace stat is irrelevant to him. In tennis there are 3 surfaces: clay, grass and hardcourt. Stop being butthurt, nobody said that Nadal won on decoturf last week except you, they said hardcourt :rolleyes:
Rafa was very much in his prime since 2005. Gonzalez and Hewitt were too good for him on Rebound Ace. Blake, Youzny, Ferrer too good for him on Decoturf.
 

Jonas78

Legend
Some will never learn...

Less than 1.5 year ago Roger was still only 3 slams ahead, yet it was all about Djoker beating the slam rec. Many people couldnt see Djoker losing the nr1 rank before 2018, and gave him more than 50% of beating Feds slam count. Now it's all about Rafa.

When someone is playing great and winning for a while, it seems like they will win forever. But it suddenly stops. For Rafa it could be 16, 17 or who knows, maybe 20. I think it is highly unlikely he will win 4 more slams at his age.
 

MugOpponent

Hall of Fame
I suspect Rafa will be hyper-motivated for Melbourne 2018, given last year and some other tough losses at that slam. In all likelihood he will be the no.1 seed and that's probably his best chance going forward for a non-RG slam.

I see four more slams(3 RG, 1 AO) for Rafa but who knows. I think Federer's path to another slam will be considerably more difficult with Djokovic coming back and other players emerging. I wouldn't bet against Federer but it's far from a lock that he gets to 20.

As far as the GOAT talk and surfaces, just remember that Nadal beat peak Federer at Wimbledon, whereas Federer never even came close to Nadal at Roland Garros.
 

Shaolin

G.O.A.T.
Interesting goalpost shift. He's gone from being coompletely "helpless" indoors to being a top 10 player indoors. Okay...

It's just a condition, and it's never been held as a criteria for GOAT, aside from desperate Federer fans who see the slam record falling to Nadal, and want to give more importance to everything else Fed has done.

It's just making up nonsense. Olympic Singles Gold has been an important target for champions for many years now. THe fact that it's called the Golden Slam (4 Grand Slams + Olympic Singles gold) is an argument that Olympic singles is actually the most important tournament outside the slams in terms of legacy. Nadal has it. Fed desperately wanted it, but never will. Hole in his resume. Federer can't be GOAT without Olympic singles gold.

I'm not stupid enough to really claim that, but i do believe if Roger had Olympic Singles Gold and Rafa didn't, Federer fans would be touting that as a big "hole" in Rafa's resume.

At the end of the day it's about the slams, baby. Not WTF's or Masters (where Nadal holds the record) or even Olympics. The slams is the number every single casual fan will remember when GOAT is talked about.

Wow, you're sinking to a new low. Fed had 4 chances to win the Olympics, only 2x in his prime, Nadal has had 12 consecutive times now. You make the comparison then cover yourself by immediately backing out and saying you're not (but ''Federer fans would''), too much of a wuss to stand up for your statement.

Being overall GOAT is about being able to win in/on any condition. Keeping your head in the sand and ignoring that he cant win a SINGLE measly WTF in 12 tries doesnt make the fact go away.

ps yeah I was probably being generous comparing his indoor career to Berdych…I was trying to be nice...probably many journeymen have had as good or better results indoor than Rafa.
 

BlueClayGOAT

Semi-Pro
It's just making up nonsense. Olympic Singles Gold has been an important target for champions for many years now. THe fact that it's called the Golden Slam (4 Grand Slams + Olympic Singles gold) is an argument that Olympic singles is actually the most important tournament outside the slams in terms of legacy. Nadal has it. Fed desperately wanted it, but never will. Hole in his resume. Federer can't be GOAT without Olympic singles gold.

I'm not stupid enough to really claim that, but i do believe if Roger had Olympic Singles Gold and Rafa didn't, Federer fans would be touting that as a big "hole" in Rafa's resume.

At the end of the day it's about the slams, baby. Not WTF's or Masters (where Nadal holds the record) or even Olympics. The slams is the number every single casual fan will remember when GOAT is talked about.

The Olympics gold needs a lot of luck to achieve as it comes around only once in 4 years. If a player happens to be at his/her peak in that particular year, he/she has a good chance. Else, it's an unnecessary knock on the resume despite everything else the player has achieved.
The WTF is played every year, and has the best concentration of talent of any tournament. It's also the biggest indoors tournament. Not winning the WTF even once despite getting a chance every year is more of an empty spot on the resume than not having an Olympics gold.
 

BlueClayGOAT

Semi-Pro
to be fair, Nadal's SD is lower if you go by surface but it's a bit disingenuous to consider AO and USO as one surface considering how differently they at least used to play.

I realize that, but equating the 2 slams played across the world from each other and in different conditions is, as you say, a very misleading way to go about it.
 

BlueClayGOAT

Semi-Pro
Establishing once and for all that ""MY favorite MALE tennis idol is better than YOUR favorite MALE tennis idol" should be child's play: . just throw out a couple of applied math foundations along with some linear equations, exponents, polynomials, logarithms ...what have you ....in addition to a lot of sundry quadratic bullshlt. . wowwee..

Again, mere child's play - why in heaven's name are we continuing to embarrass ourselves here?

good thread: . * 4 honks

Share This Page

This is an exercise in being deliberately obtuse.
If we are talking about even spread of slams, there's just a very simple, universally recognized method to do it, and that's what i demonstrated. I didn't say Fed was better or worse than Rafa because of it, just that he has a more even spread of Slams across surfaces.

I cannot believe there are educated people who say things like what you just did. Please read before commenting.
 

AngryBirds

Semi-Pro
Not really. This US Open win killed that argument forever. 6 non-clay slams is all-time great level (Becker, Edberg). If he wins nothing but RG from now, it won't hurt his overall GOAT candidacy, because he has an all-time greats level of non-clay slams. But I expect he'll win Australia or US again at least once.
Imagine if all those non-clay slams were played on clay instead. He could aim for 100 slams by the end of his career.
 

Bender

G.O.A.T.
At some point, racking up titles at just one slam is going to be subject to the law of diminishing returns.

I think ten titles at one slam (especially when you only average two each at the other three slams) is probably where we can draw that line, if it hasn't been passed already.

Not saying thirteen RG titles isn't impressive (Jesus Christ that would be monstrous), but as other posters have pointed out, tennis is played on three surfaces, not one. Fed may only have one RG title, but he sure is closer to overall GOAT considering all three surfaces than Rafa is.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Federev

Legend
No one with a straight face can call him a GOAT when Fed is comfortably ahead than him at 4 of the 5 big events in tennis.

He can win 25 RG . It doesn't make any difference
Yeah / I think this has merit.

But regardless of slam count it will be hard for Rafa to ever get out of Fed's shadow. He's 31, played his entire career in it - and Fed's still at it.

Fed's grace, genius on the court -especially at the super bowl of tennis (to most)... and Just as important to the masses - his charm and geniality off the court make him a world class celebrity that most people will always find more relatable as a sports hero.

I'm not saying that's fair, it's just the reality of it.

Case in point: Apart from steroids in MLB ( they've all done them), It's like Barry Bonds. Even when he became home run king it never rresonated with most people - he's not really relatable the way Mark Maguire or Sammy Sosa were.

Nadal is A LOT more enjoyable than BB ( and I find his tennis compelling and I like him). So this is hyperbole - an exaggeration for examples sake. But relative to Fed for Rafa - it will never come down to simply slams regardless in most people's minds.

Fed is 36 and more popular than ever, because of his personality and relatability as well as his tennis. Nadal doesn't really come to that level to most. And you can see it in any presser: Fed looks engaged and articulate and Rafa looks like he just wants to get the crap out of there.

Of course he has tons of fans as he should - but I would bet those folks are very committed solid tennis fans. Whereas Fed has those, but he's really transcended tennis now as a tennis ambassador. That's shows in charity events and marketing and magazine covers and David Foster Wallace articles.

Fed is the GOAT for a lot of people because his tennis excellene is supplemented by his charisma.

It would take a lot more than slams to change that.

(And don't get me started on poor Novak. He could win 25 slams and would probably still fail to get the credit he'd deserve).
 
This is an exercise in being deliberately obtuse.
If we are talking about even spread of slams, there's just a very simple, universally recognized method to do it, and that's what i demonstrated. I didn't say Fed was better or worse than Rafa because of it, just that he has a more even spread of Slams across surfaces.

I cannot believe there are educated people who say things like what you just did. Please read before commenting.
get off your (lecturing) high horse and ......and maybe learn to take a harmless joke while you're at it


10,000 threads later...like I really lose a second of sleep about Fed vs Rafa, Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed....10,000 threads later.......Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed ......10,000 threads later........Fed vs Rafa, Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed....10,000 threads later.......Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed....10,000 threads later.......Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed.....10,000 threads later...."I MUST RESPOND!!!" ....Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed.......10,000 threads later....like I really lose a second of sleep about Fed vs Rafa, Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed....10,000 threads later.......Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed ......10,000 threads later... ..."I MUST RESPOND!!!" ... .....Fed vs Rafa, Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed....10,000 threads later.......Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed....10,000 threads later.......Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed.....10,000 threads later.......Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed vs Rafa vs Fed
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
If it makes you sleep better at night to keep telling yourself that, knock yourself out.

In the real world, it's not going to work like that unfortunately. People will be calling Nadal GOAT from when he gets within 1 or 2 of Federer, never mind tying or passing him.

This forum is a representation of the real world. Make a poll and ask if people would take Nadal as the GOAT at 19 majors
 

octogon

Hall of Fame
At some point, racking up titles at just one slam is going to be subject to the law of diminishing returns.

I think ten titles at one slam (especially when you only average two each at the other three slams) is probably where we can draw that line, if it hasn't been passed already.

Not saying thirteen RG titles isn't impressive (Jesus Christ that would be monstrous), but as other posters have pointed out, tennis is played on three surfaces, not one. Fed may only have one RG title, but he sure is closer to overall GOAT considering all three surfaces than Rafa is.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Take Away all his clay slams and Rafa with 6 slams is an ALL-TIME GREAT PLAYER!!!

I don't think Federer fans realise how insulting they are being towards greats of the game by continuing to play this card, and I wouldn't be surprised if more former legends started jumping back on Rafa's bandwagon for GOAT because of it. One more non-Clay slam and Rafa has matched John McEnroe's entire slam career. Acting as if that's a pitiful total, because he's the GOD OF CLAY and could win 13 on clay is basically spitting in the face of legends.Telling people like McEnroe that his career was worthless, and not worthy of legendary status.

This "too much clay" stuff is no longer a good look after this US Open win. He's won enough slams off clay for it not to be a factor. But people have been parroting that argument for so long that it's hard to let go. It's now a losing argument.
 

octogon

Hall of Fame
This forum is a representation of the real world. Make a poll and ask if people would take Nadal as the GOAT at 19 majors

LOL!

This forum is nowhere near representative of the real world. It's full of hardcore fans with their own biases and agendas. You'd probably have to poll a non-tennis site with casual fans. Tell them the H2H (23-14) and have them on the same number of majors, I'm guessing most casual fans will say Nadal is GOAT.
 

DerekNoleFam1

Hall of Fame
Really depends on how long RG is "in the bank" for. (although another AO or USO is still possible)
Is there really no chance nobody else will step up on clay in the next 2-3 years, or Djoker can make a comeback and win it once more?
2017 has been a revelation, and his destruction of 2015 champion Stanimal in the RG final was an awesome display.
But another lull like the 2015-16 period, and there will be no time to come back and add more.
 

BlueClayGOAT

Semi-Pro
get off your (lecturing) high horse and ......and maybe learn to take a harmless joke while you're at it

Oh, but the reply to my post wasn't meant as a joke. It was a deliberate attempt to misrepresent a perfectly viable and simple way to answer something everyone was discussing.

X: *makes an assertion A*
Y: *shows that the assertion A is demonstrably false using a certain method M*
X: But Method M cannot prove assertion B, haha lol you're an idiot who doesn't understand tennis.
Y: of course it doesn't, it only holds for assertion A. Can't you read?
X: You're lecturing from a high horse and you can't take a joke.

Somehow, you seem to think Y is the villain in that conversation. Inexplicable.
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
LOL!

This forum is nowhere near representative of the real world. It's full of hardcore fans with their own biases and agendas. You'd probably have to poll a non-tennis site with casual fans. Tell them the H2H (23-14) and have them on the same number of majors, I'm guessing most casual fans will say Nadal is GOAT.

So you want a poll to be done with ignorant folks rather than nerds of the sport ? What logic is that ?
 

tennis2017

Rookie
Piling on even more RG titles will only reinforce his claim to CGOAT…not overall GOAT.
Nope. 6 majors of clay automatically puts him as a hall of gamer. Equal to Becker and edberg.

His clay count elevates him to overall goat. A third USO was MASSIVE. It was beyond extreme in importance.
 

pat200

Semi-Pro
i think Fed won't win any slam next year, especially that being 36 is not easy on the body for the men's game where BO5 sets at slams take a toll. Also you have to factor in the return of Djokovic, Murray and Wawrinka. Rafa has a good chance to win FO again and ok chances to win AO or USO.
 

Crisstti

Legend
He did say it. His exact words were:

"Vamos a llegar a los 19 Grand Slams de Federer. Confío en ganar algún Roland Garros más y algún otro caerá".

Which translates as:

"We'll reach Federer's 19 Grand Slams (titles). I'm confident in winning another Roland Garros and others will fall (in Spanish this could also mean 'others will come', but it's open to different interpretations)"

I'd definitely go with the second option. He's saying they'll get the chance to win other(s) non RG slam(s). I'd translate it as ""We'll reach Federer's 19 Grand Slams. I'm confident we'll win some other Roland Garros and some other slam".

Not really. The fact that Rafa is completely helpless indoor kills his chance at GOAT. No one can be considered overall GOAT when you are that bad on one surface.

Shoveling on more and more clay can't hide it.

Good thing indoor is not a surface then! lol

But as Octogon said, he's far from "helpless" on it.

rafa would never say it, toni though i could see him saying something similar.

Yep. Rafa and Toni aren't the same person. It's Rafa who'd never say this.

What I find interesting is that Toni brought up matching the Federer 19 Majors, as well as Moya in another interview saying they need to correct the latest head2head results with Federer. So it's obviously something on the mind of the Nadal camp. It's not a bad thing, but I just chuckle when I hear the athletes mouth these platitudes that they don't consider such things. Of course they are more than aware of all these stats and records...

Lol yeah, I agree. I remember a Nadal interview from a while back where he outright said that he always said (in interviews) he didn't think of records and tennis history, but that of course he did think about it.
 

octogon

Hall of Fame
So you want a poll to be done with ignorant folks rather than nerds of the sport ? What logic is that ?

What's the logic of claiming a site full of sport nerds is representative of the "real world"? It isn't.

In the real word, casual fans matter. Once they believe something, it becomes real. That's why sports journalists work so hard to appeal to them, to tell them this guy or that guy is GOAT.
 

Crisstti

Legend
Anyway, the attitude from some Fed fans on this thread is kinda funy. It's like they think he's got to 19 slams already or that it's a sure thing he will. It's far from it. He could get there, he could stay where he is. It remains to be seen. So no need to panic (yet).

It is interesting to see what the arguments would be if they would be tied(ish) in slams. Like "RG doesn't count", etc. Some other more reasonable arguments of course.
 

Crisstti

Legend
What's the logic of claiming a site full of sport nerds is representative of the "real world"? It isn't.

In the real word, casual fans matter. Once they believe something, it becomes real. That's why sports journalists work so hard to appeal to them, to tell them this guy or that guy is GOAT.

Quoted for truth...
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
What's the logic of claiming a site full of sport nerds is representative of the "real world"? It isn't.

In the real word, casual fans matter. Once they believe something, it becomes real. That's why sports journalists work so hard to appeal to them, to tell them this guy or that guy is GOAT.

Logic of taking a poll here is to get representation of what real tennis fans and nerds all over the world think about who the GOAT is rather than some ignorant folks who tunes in occasionally during set 5 of one match or who sees Wikipedia to know who got more wins. This forum also has few players who play at a decent level, coaches and historians . Their view is more relevant than some ignoramus
 

octogon

Hall of Fame
Logic of taking a poll here is to get representation of what real tennis fans and nerds all over the world think about who the GOAT is rather than some ignorant folks who tunes in occasionally during set 5 of one match or who sees Wikipedia to know who got more wins. This forum also has few players who play at a decent level, coaches and historians . Their view is more relevant than some ignoramus

But bias is an issue with hardcores. if there are more hardcore Federer fans on this site, than hardcore Nadal or Djokovic fans, then Federer is often likely to win a poll here. it's long been claimed that this site is owned by backers of Federer as well.

You ain't gonna get a fair and unbiased poll on a site like this.
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
But bias is an issue with hardcores. if there are more hardcore Federer fans on this site, than hardcore Nadal or Djokovic fans, then Federer is often likely to win a poll here. it's long been claimed that this site is owned by backers of Federer as well.

You ain't gonna get a fair and unbiased poll on a site like this.

This is a myth propagated by Fed haters that the forum is Fed biased

We have seen Rafa fans from long time back still continue to be active here. The only difference is Fed fans stay here through thick and thin while lot of Rafa fans vanish the moment loses start mounting and come back when he wins a title
 

uscwang

Hall of Fame
All of us are really embarrassing ourselves here.

Do all of you realize that this question of better slam spread is not a subjective opinion? There is a simple statistical measure called standard deviation to find out which spread of data is more uniform in distribution. A lower value of S.D. indicates a tighter distribution around the mean, while higher S.D. values indicate large variation in the data points.
This is basic high school math. Come on, people.

Fed's data set of 8,5,5,1 has a S.D. value of 2.487468.
Rafa's data set of 10,3,2,1 has a S.D. value of 3.5355.

Fed's slam wins spread is more uniform than Rafa's by a significant margin.

Next question.

How about breaking it down by surface type, as on hard court, clay, grass?
Fed: 10, 1, 8 has a sample SD of 4.725816
Nadal: 4, 10, 2 has a sample SD of 4.163332

Next question.
 
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tennis4me

Hall of Fame
The only real GOAT to me ...

Swiss_goats_with_bells_close-up.jpg


Even in 'real' GOAT, there are different types of GOATs like here:
spanish_full.jpg

They're both GOATs - both special and unique - one like the mountains as its preferred "surface", the other one doesn't.

Appropriately, the 1st one is actually "Swiss Goats", and the second one are "Spanish Goats", which coincidentally have horns like a bull - but, they seem to like grass more than clay, though. :D
 
Nadal getting a clean sweep at the French this year really clouded things for people. I don't think he'll win more than 1. 2 more years of development for Zverev and Thiem should be enough especially if he got both guys in his draw.

The hard path would be something like Novak in quarters, Zverev in semi and Thiem in final I wouldn't bet on Nadal in that case.

Two years is a long time, and Nadal might well decline significantly by 2019. But if he only declines slightly, then I just don't see Thiem beating him at Roland Garros. At 24, Thiem probably only has marginal improvement left in him, and he's some way off right now. Zverev might improve quite a bit more, but I just don't think he's going to end up at his best on clay. I really don't envisage anyone except perhaps a resurgent Djokovic stopping Nadal for the next couple of years at RG if he maintains his form and fitness.

I really don't like Nadal at all. But that's orthogonal to the question of whether I think he'll win many more titles. Pessimistic anti-Nadalistas will likely come to the same conclusion here as optimistic members of the *************.
 
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