Too much hype about Nole breaking the 17 slam record

[TheMusicLover]

I don't remember anyone saying that in 2007. They were more focused on him passing Sampras' record at that point.

In 2007, nope. But I can tell you, there were plenty of that kind of fans around at least at tournaments a bit later on.

Saw it with my own eyes: folks selling self-made (?) T-shirts with the text, "after 15 comes 16, comes 17 comes 18 comes 19 comes 20".
I kid you not.

 

[mattosgrant]

And? How does that prove Novak was a roadblock ala Nadal? He wasn't.

I don't think he was a roadblock in the true sense either. Certainly nothing like Nadal. Federer held Djokovic at a bay when he was an up and coming top 3/4 player, then dropped behind when he was fading and Djokovic really hit his peak years. However he did deny older Federer a lot of titles, at minimum probably 3 additional Wimbledon/U.S Opens in 2014/2015, probably atleast 1 more Australian Open given the 08 and 2011 semis, etc... Really one should want to acknowledge this (especialy a Federer fan) as later on if Djokovic reaches comparable numbers it could be argued Federer was denied a lot of additional possible titles later on by another ATG and maybe Djokovic wasn't.

Federer was probably even less of a roadblock for Novak. He beat him in 3 straight U.S Opens but Novak could have easily lost to someone else in all of those- 2007 (Roddick), 2008 (Murray), 2009 (Del Potro). The 2011 French is ironically the most likely big title he denied Novak, but that was a huge one. Again indirectly this is more an argument (particularly in the future) in Fed's favor as he was probably denied more possible big wins by Novak than vice versa, regarless the age, timing, and circumstances.

Their rivalry seems big as they played in a lot of big matches but they are barely true contemporaries at all. Nadal is in between both in timing and peaking, and is a more real rival to both than they are to each other.

What is most impressive was Djokovic's ability to completely dominate a strong Nadal in 2011-winter 2012. His success against Federer can be questioned, but this cannot.

 

[Roddick85]

The only factor that favors Nole is the fact that the level of opposition is weak at the moment. He's so far ahead of everyone that even if his level drops a little bit due to his age, he'll still be a contender or even the favorite to win. As far as new contenders emerging, never say never, but looking at the current top 50, I just don't see anyone that could really bump him off the top spot in the coming years. Regardless of all that, another 6 slams is a huge task that people greatly underestimate. If he suffers a Nadal like decline, those won't look so easily within reach anymore.

 

[ANDYbhGENIUS]

Certainly.

But unjustified, as it takes about 17 to tango.

 

[NoleFam]

Much like Federer was 13-6 against Novak before then. I don't really see how it proves Novak stopped Federer like Nadal did. They aren't remotely close to being the same thing, not even in the same ballpark. Nadal was besting Federer at his very best -- Novak struggled with him until he held the advantage in their rivalry.

Yes I agree but that has nothing to do with your original statement. You said Djokovic didn't start beating Federer regularly until Federer was in his mid 30's which is not true. I said Federer is on 17 Slams because Nadal and Djokovic have been beating him either in the SF or F of majors. Since January 2008, they have beat him in 15 Slams. Nadal beat him 6 times and Djokovic beat him 9 times. Whether one beat him at his very best or not is irrelevant when it's just a fact that they both stopped him. One has nothing to do with the other and I never said anything about him being in his prime or not being his prime. Actually in the last 8 years, Novak has stopped Federer more than Nadal has.

 

[NoleFam]

In 2007, nope. But I can tell you, there were plenty of that kind of fans around at least at tournaments a bit later on.

Saw it with my own eyes: folks selling self-made (?) T-shirts with the text, "after 15 comes 16, comes 17 comes 18 comes 19 comes 20".
I kid you not.

Well yea I can definitely see his fans doing that and don't doubt it for a second.

 

[TheMusicLover]

Well yea I can definitely see his fans doing that and don't doubt it for a second.

I thought it to be immensily akward, out of place, and quite a bit of an insult to all other players competing at said tournament at that time.

I am a Fed fan myself, and DARN I told them so. Didn't go down all too well with 'em. Fortunately, I didn't give a damn.

 

[NoleFam]

I thought it to be immensily akward, out of place, and quite a bit of an insult to all other players competing at said tournament at that time.

I am a Fed fan myself, and DARN I told them so. Didn't go down all too well with 'em. Fortunately, I didn't give a damn.

Well fans seem to be overly exuberant when it comes to their favorite player. 17 Slams is still a hell of a lot.

 

[Chanwan]

Hi there was a thread about it started by 5555 on the first page yesterday. Just look under his profile and it should be there. Here is where it was:

http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/inde...o-finish-with-more-slams-than-federer.558860/

Looks like he didn't post a link but I can tell by the graphics it was copied from one of the legitimate betting sites. I imagine it might be bet365.

Ah, can't see the 5555-link. Have him on ignore due to the incessant you have lost the argument sh*t he pulls. Unreadable and annoying to me.

 

[Djokodal Fan]

I can vouch that Novak is not going to break this record.

Case examples:
By AO 2010 no one would have predicted that Fed would win just 1 more slam in next 5 years
BY FO2014, no body even saw that Nadal's slam run would come to a sudden halt, give he won FO 13, US 13 and FO 14.

Do don't get your horses high. If Novak wins just one more slam this year, I'll be happy for the fact that he has had another multi slam year. 17 slams.... hell now.

For that he needs opponents like Philippoussis, Baghdatis or Gonzalez to vulture his way through. Worst case he needs to face Pegions like Roddick/Hewitt like Fed like at the peak of his career to have any chance. None of this is going to happen.

 

[duaneeo]

It's actually difficult to gauge how mentally tough current Novak is in a (non-Australian Open) slam final. The only player he's beaten (in a non-Australian Open final) since 2012 is Federer, whose mental toughness has seriously declined late in his career.

 

[Druss]

It's actually difficult to gauge how mentally tough current Novak is in a (non-Australian Open) slam final. The only player he's beaten (in a non-Australian Open final) since 2012 is Federer, whose mental toughness has seriously declined late in his career.

I think Djokovic is as mentally tough as can be, perhaps second only to peak Nadal. His only question mark is at RG.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

Yes I agree but that has nothing to do with your original statement. You said Djokovic didn't start beating Federer regularly until Federer was in his mid 30's which is not true. I said Federer is on 17 Slams because Nadal and Djokovic have been beating him either in the SF or F of majors. Since January 2008, they have beat him in 15 Slams. Nadal beat him 6 times and Djokovic beat him 9 times. Whether one beat him at his very best or not is irrelevant when it's just a fact that they both stopped him. One has nothing to do with the other and I never said anything about him being in his prime or not being his prime. Actually in the last 8 years, Novak has stopped Federer more than Nadal has.

It was an exaggeration. My point still stands.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

I don't think he was a roadblock in the true sense either. Certainly nothing like Nadal. Federer held Djokovic at a bay when he was an up and coming top 3/4 player, then dropped behind when he was fading and Djokovic really hit his peak years. However he did deny older Federer a lot of titles, at minimum probably 3 additional Wimbledon/U.S Opens in 2014/2015, probably atleast 1 more Australian Open given the 08 and 2011 semis, etc... Really one should want to acknowledge this (especialy a Federer fan) as later on if Djokovic reaches comparable numbers it could be argued Federer was denied a lot of additional possible titles later on by another ATG and maybe Djokovic wasn't.

Federer was probably even less of a roadblock for Novak. He beat him in 3 straight U.S Opens but Novak could have easily lost to someone else in all of those- 2007 (Roddick), 2008 (Murray), 2009 (Del Potro). The 2011 French is ironically the most likely big title he denied Novak, but that was a huge one. Again indirectly this is more an argument (particularly in the future) in Fed's favor as he was probably denied more possible big wins by Novak than vice versa, regarless the age, timing, and circumstances.

Their rivalry seems big as they played in a lot of big matches but they are barely true contemporaries at all. Nadal is in between both in timing and peaking, and is a more real rival to both than they are to each other.

What is most impressive was Djokovic's ability to completely dominate a strong Nadal in 2011-winter 2012. His success against Federer can be questioned, but this cannot.

Yes, but I certainly wouldn't put Novak on a higher tier than Nadal (overall, not current form). I think their rivalry has been fairly competitive until recently, because Novak struggled with Nadal once again in 2013, during his peak year(s). 2011 was very impressive but I don't think even that proves Novak would dominate Nadal all the time. It did prove he was capable of dominating Nadal, but certainly not for extended periods of time.

 

[mattosgrant]

Yes, but I certainly wouldn't put Novak on a higher tier than Nadal (overall, not current form). I think their rivalry has been fairly competitive until recently, because Novak struggled with Nadal once again in 2013, during his peak year(s). 2011 was very impressive but I don't think even that proves Novak would dominate Nadal all the time. It did prove he was capable of dominating Nadal, but certainly not for extended periods of time.

Yes that is true. I dont think he would be capable of dominating a prime Nadal long term. 2012 and 2013 proved that conclusively. Anything that happens regarding Nadal now is meaningless, Nadal is even further past his prime than Federer as amazing as that sounds given their ages. To dominate Nadal like that even for 13 months though is super impressive. Something even Federer was never close to being capable of (and yes I know the match up element and all.

 

[Sartorius]

Not unsimilar to people launching Nadal ahead of Federer in imaginary catapults since 2008, merely because it seems possible. Right now Novak seems utterly dominant and future doesn't seem to hold much (younger) opposition. But obviously nothing is set in stone, Novak can fade and/or Nadal can rise again, and so forth. I actually think Nadal's catapult is still closer to reality than Novak's, since he's actually closer afterall. Maybe they can both pass him, maybe not.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

I can vouch that Novak is not going to break this record.

Case examples:
By AO 2010 no one would have predicted that Fed would win just 1 more slam in next 5 years
BY FO2014, no body even saw that Nadal's slam run would come to a sudden halt, give he won FO 13, US 13 and FO 14.

Do don't get your horses high. If Novak wins just one more slam this year, I'll be happy for the fact that he has had another multi slam year. 17 slams.... hell now.

For that he needs opponents like Philippoussis, Baghdatis or Gonzalez to vulture his way through. Worst case he needs to face Pegions like Roddick/Hewitt like Fed like at the peak of his career to have any chance. None of this is going to happen.

Murray's doing a fine job of that.

 

[duaneeo]

I think Djokovic is as mentally tough as can be, perhaps second only to peak Nadal. His only question mark is at RG.

With only two US Open titles?

 

[PHS_10]

It is not going to happen. He is almost 29 FFS. The media are only hyping it up because, if he doesn't get to 17, which he ain't gona get to in this life time. Then they can conveniently under rate all his achievements.

 

[Druss]

With only two US Open titles?

Two USO titles is not bad! How many does Lendl have? He lost USO finals to Federer (07) and Nadal (10&13), that's not exactly 'choking', it's more like the guy across the net is an ATG and has something to say about the outcome of the match.

 

[mike danny]

You want to know why I feel Djokovic will not win 18 slams? Because once he gets closer to the slam record he will feel how close he is and will start feeling the pressure. That pressure will not allow him to become as dominant as he is now. Of course he looks dominant now when he is still far behind the slam record and is playing with no pressure.

But you see his struggles at the FO, a slam he never won. He knows that and that's why he is struggling with pressure. The same will happen if he gets to 14-15 majors.

 

[Dedans Penthouse]

I only made one thread about this topic, which is pale in comparison to the Nole fans and his glory hunter..

One or one hundred that's not the point. The fact that you HAD to make a thread about it makes you no different from any of the Nole fanboys.

You are them...........and they is you. . . At least have the stones to own it.​

 

[mattosgrant]

You want to know why I feel Djokovic will not win 18 slams? Because once he gets closer to the slam record he will feel how close he is and will start feeling the pressure. That pressure will not allow him to become as dominant as he is now. Of course he looks dominant now when he is still far behind the slam record and is playing with no pressure.

But you see his struggles at the FO, a slam he never won. He knows that and that's why he is struggling with pressure. The same will happen if he gets to 14-15 majors.

I think the main reason he fails at RG is not the pressure but Nadal, the clay GOAT (who Federer also could never beat at RG, even if Djokovic is a better clay courter than Federer it is by a very small margin so it is no surprise he also failed). The first time he really failed in a way is 2015, and I didnt sense he was nervous, but just outplayed that day.

 

[mike danny]

I think the main reason he fails at RG is not the pressure but Nadal, the clay GOAT (who Federer also could never beat at RG, even if Djokovic is a better clay courter than Federer it is by a very small margin so it is no surprise he also failed). The first time he really failed in a way is 2015, and I didnt sense he was nervous, but just outplayed that day.

But don't you agree with the pressure? It happened to Fed too once he got close to the slam record.

 

[mattosgrant]

But don't you agree with the pressure? It happened to Fed too once he got close to the slam record.

It is possible. I think he showed feeling the pressure in the 2012-2014 period in general, not so much specifically at RG. Pressure he put on himself to back up and live up to 2011.

 

[Blocker]

Not a chance. I don't think we'll see 17 beaten in any of our lifetimes. It's a number that's situated almost on the threshold between the possible and the impossible. For that number to have been possible, it required at least 4 years of utter dominance, together with extremely unusual longevity and an almost exclusive - or at least very rare - ability to remain healthy and injury-free. If you think about it, it's mind-boggling (and that's why even Nadal, who got closer, and Djokovic, who's so dominant right now, are still an arm's length behind Federer): this would mean a 17-year-long career (let's say from ages 17 to 34) with one Slam every season, knowing full well that there's always the possibility of being injured and that you're very unlikely to win when you're 17-20 or 31-34. Alternatively, it would mean that you're in the restrict group of people that win more than one Slam per year and do this for an extended period of time. Even if you win two every year, you'd need to do that for a sustained 9 years to beat the record by one Slam. It's my contention that Federer was fortunate enough to be the right man at the right time, and that it will take centuries (not decades) for this record to be beaten. Many of you will say "yeah, but look at Sampras' 14, overtaken barely 10 years later". But I think you fail to acknowledge the huge difference between 14 and 17, the former being within the realm of the "quite possible" and the latter belonging in the realm of the "almost impossible".

I just read what you wrote and all I could see was:

Hail Mary, full of grace.
Our Lord is with you.
Blessed are you among women,
and blessed is the fruit of your womb,
Jesus.
Holy Mary, Mother of God,
pray for us sinners,
now and at the hour of our death.
Amen.

 

[Fiero425]

The only factor that favors Nole is the fact that the level of opposition is weak at the moment. He's so far ahead of everyone that even if his level drops a little bit due to his age, he'll still be a contender or even the favorite to win. As far as new contenders emerging, never say never, but looking at the current top 50, I just don't see anyone that could really bump him off the top spot in the coming years. Regardless of all that, another 6 slams is a huge task that people greatly underestimate. If he suffers a Nadal like decline, those won't look so easily within reach anymore.

I doubt anyone will have as big a decline as Nadal; stripped of his PED's and so many breaks due to injury ( suspended a couple times I say), he's just about run out of time, gas, and opportunities with Nole dominating so completely! I didn't think Djokovic could surpass 2011, but he actually did; added another Masters and the YEC! If he just takes a couple GS the next 3 years, he can get to Federer's record!

 

[duaneeo]

Two USO titles is not bad! He lost USO finals to Federer (07) and Nadal (10&13), that's not exactly 'chokin...

I'm talking about 2012 - 2014. Prime Djokovic has the superior HC game over Murray, Nadal, and Nishikori. Nole losing to them at the US Open shows he isn't as mentally tough as can be. He would already have at least 4 US Open titles.

 

[Druss]

I'm talking about 2012 - 2014. Prime Djokovic has the superior HC game over Murray, Nadal, and Nishikori. Nole losing to them at the US Open shows he isn't as mentally tough as can be. He would already have at least 4 US Open titles.

Well even ATGs can falter at times, nobody is perfect. Prime Federer lost AO'09 & USO'09 when he had the superior HC game over Nadal & Delpo and also W'08 to Nadal, and he is regarded as the Grass GOAT.

 

[Fiero425]

Approaching 30, it's called choking; legs and nerves begin to go!

 

[Nonsense]

Considering there is nothing else to hype + the season Novak has just had, it makes sense that the hype is about Novak passing 17.

We'll really see how mentally tough he is at the French... he's going for 4 in a row and it's the one slam he's not won yet. Pressure will be on. Fail to win it again and there is a decent possibility he will never win it.

 

[ScentOfDefeat]

I just read what you wrote and all I could see was:

Hail Mary, full of grace.
Our Lord is with you.
Blessed are you among women,
and blessed is the fruit of your womb,
Jesus.
Holy Mary, Mother of God,
pray for us sinners,
now and at the hour of our death.
Amen.

Why?

 

[falstaff78]

The plain and simple reason is to sell and sensationalize the sport by selling the biggest story...Can he do it? Having a background storyline taking place has always been a contributing factor in getting the coverage and interest up, and also to try to bring in more fans. And the more historic the possible feat can be, the more they will talk about it. We all know he has a long way to go and Federer despite his age is moving target, all it takes is a Kevin Anderson holding it together in a Wimbledon quarter final moment and Federer wins another slam. Let's just enjoy the tennis and let the chips fall where they may. One thing is for certain both of them are legendary players.

Excellent

 

[duaneeo]

Well even ATGs can falter at times, nobody is perfect. Prime Federer lost AO'09 & USO'09 when he had the superior HC game over Nadal & Delpo and also W'08 to Nadal, and he is regarded as the Grass GOAT.

Yes, but the W loss to Nadal occurred in the 5th year of Federer's prime (and after he had already won five consecutive titles), and the others happened in the 6th (after Federer had won 3 AOs and 5 USOs). Big difference.

I think the chances of Djokovic breaking Roger's slam record (or, even tying Nadal) are slim because of those years between his dominant 2011 and 2015.

 

[NoleFam]

Yes, but the W loss to Nadal occurred in the 5th year of Federer's prime (and after he had already won five consecutive titles), and the others happened in the 6th (after Federer had won 3 AOs and 5 USOs). Big difference.

I think the chances of Djokovic breaking Roger's slam record (or, even tying Nadal) are slim because of those years between his dominant 2011 and 2015.

I think Djokovic has a good chance to tie Nadal or maybe get 15. I really think he can win 4 more Slams since he is so far ahead of the pack at the moment. 6 more is tall order because things can change so quickly but it is possible as well.

 

[duaneeo]

I think Djokovic has a good chance to tie Nadal or maybe get 15. I really think he can win 4 more Slams since he is so far ahead of the pack at the moment. 6 more is tall order because things can change so quickly but it is possible as well.

I don't think Djokovic is "so far ahead of the pack" at the US Open, winning Roland Garros is a huge question mark, and how would Nole perform at Wimbledon (with a screaming crowd that would make the 2014 crowd look like kittens) if he faced Murray?

 

[NoleFam]

I don't think Djokovic is "so far ahead of the pack" at the US Open, winning Roland Garros is a huge question mark, and how would Nole perform at Wimbledon (with a screaming crowd that would make the 2014 crowd look like kittens) if he faced Murray?

Yea he's pretty far ahead anywhere really except RG where he gets pretty nervous. Winning that last US Open final with the crowd so against him will give him major confidence going back there again. He also has already played Murray in the Wimbledon final there so he knows what to expect and also the crowd was pretty pro Federer the last 2 years. The 2015 Wimbledon final was the best he's ever played there? Can he go a notch higher? If so, he would have a chance to get 3 in a row.

 

[KK Partizan]

I don't think Djokovic is "so far ahead of the pack" at the US Open, winning Roland Garros is a huge question mark, and how would Nole perform at Wimbledon (with a screaming crowd that would make the 2014 crowd look like kittens) if he faced Murray?

Man, reading your posts makes me cringe. You're desperately trying to convince yourself Djokovic won't win this, won't win that, etc. You specifically point out his failures at French Open, but conveniently forget that the only reason Federer every got one was...someone else doing the heavy work.

For me, personally, he's achieved so much especially considering his background. However, I'm open to the possibility that he's just starting to really cement his legacy. Seeing people like yourself and tennis_pro use absurd logic to try to, what, jinx him or something?

My guess is Djokovic ends up with 15 but I can definitely see him eclipsing Federer. Weak era or not, I'll rest comfortably knowing that seemingly 80+% of his finals matchups have been against ATG whereas Federer's early GS wins came against a who's who cast of journeymen and talented underachievers.

 

[TMF]

But don't you agree with the pressure? It happened to Fed too once he got close to the slam record.

The difference is Federer was at peak pressure when he was 2 slams behind Sampras in 2008, and at that time he was younger than Nole today. Nole has a mountain to climb because he's 6 behind, and he still hasn't won the FO. Nole has only managed to reached first base, but his fans are thinking about home plate and ignore that Nole has a long way to go to get 2nd and 3rd base .

 

[duaneeo]

Man, reading your posts makes me cringe.

LOL! So the hell what! Stop reading them.

 

[KK Partizan]

LOL! So the hell what! Stop reading them.

Ooooooh, looks like I hit a nerve. I'll repeat...

Weak era or not, I'll rest comfortably knowing that seemingly 80+% of his finals matchups have been against ATG whereas Federer's early GS wins came against a who's who cast of journeymen and talented underachievers.

 

[duaneeo]

Ooooooh, looks like I hit a nerve.

You hit a nerve? You're cringing. I'm laughing.

 

[KK Partizan]

You hit a nerve? You're cringing. I'm laughing.

Yes, clearly. Using the word hell followed by an exclamation point.

So the hell what!

Cringing doesn't mean I was offended. It's merely a natural response to an awkward situation (usually public), i.e. you running through (very unrealistic) scenarios of how to prevent Djokovic from winning Grand Slams.

 

[duaneeo]

It's merely a natural response to an awkward situation (usually public), i.e. you running through (very unrealistic) scenarios of how to prevent Djokovic from winning Grand Slams.

Name one "very unrealistic" scenario I mentioned.

 

[mavsman149]

[QUOTE="ScentOfDefeat, post: 10148634, member: 297674"It's a number that's situated almost on the threshold between the possible and the impossible. [/QUOTE]

Are you saying Novak must dare to achieve the POSSIMPIBLE???!!!!!

 

[KK Partizan]

Name one "very unrealistic" scenario I mentioned.

Here ya go.

I don't think Djokovic is "so far ahead of the pack" at the US Open, winning Roland Garros is a huge question mark, and how would Nole perform at Wimbledon (with a screaming crowd that would make the 2014 crowd look like kittens) if he faced Murray?

You don't imagine Djokovic can defeat a past his prime Murray at Wimbledon.

EDIT
Past his prime on every court other than clay.

 

[duaneeo]

You don't imagine Djokovic can defeat a past his prime Murray at Wimbledon.

That's the "unlikely scenario"? Me merely asking the question of how Djokovic would perform against Murray and the Wimbledon crowd?

Whatever. Have a nice day.

 

[KK Partizan]

That's the "unlikely scenario"? Me merely asking the question of how Djokovic would perform against Murray and the Wimbledon crowd?

Whatever. Have a nice day.

I may just be overly 'cautious' around the many anti-Djokovic whiners on here (not saying you are one). We agree to disagree.

You as well.

 

[enlightenment]

OP was absolutely right. The record might be 19 come Sunday.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

None of that matters.

Wait and see. In your case, pray it doesn't happen.


Agassi won 5 slams post 29. No reason Djoker can't do that. if he gets 5 more hes at 16 - then the motivation is really there.

Agassi had like no milage post 29.