NTPR Ratings Expers Please Assist!

K

kickit

New User
D

Deleted member 23235

Guest
kickit said:
Can someone explain why this self rated 3.0 player got bumped to 3.5?

http://tennislink.usta.com/leagues/...rd//Main/Home.aspx#&&s=8||0||2010585661||2016


In his 2016 3.5 League he won 0 matches and 0 sets in 4 matches total. His current 2017 "Rolling" tournament year record is 1-8 at 3.5.

The TLS calculator actually predicted that he would get bumped down to 2.5:

http://tennisleaguestats.com/admin/...ages/Pinewoods Health and Racquet - Menas.htm

Any and all help is appreciated.
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because your rating is not based on win/loss, and is based on games won vs opponent...

my guess is that he did decently (eg lost 3,3) against high 3.5's enough times to get him bumped.

he also has quite a lot of ntrp tourney results... not sure if those count... but some of the matches are close.
 
Moveforwardalways

Moveforwardalways

Hall of Fame
kickit said:
Can someone explain why this self rated 3.0 player got bumped to 3.5?

http://tennislink.usta.com/leagues/Main/StatsAndStandings.aspx?t=R-17&search=sean elliott&OrgURL=http://tennislink.usta.com/Dashboard//Main/Home.aspx#&&s=8||0||2010585661||2016


In his 2016 3.5 League he won 0 matches and 0 sets in 4 matches total. His current 2017 "Rolling" tournament year record is 1-8 at 3.5.

The TLS calculator actually predicted that he would get bumped down to 2.5:

http://tennisleaguestats.com/admin/2016/Section - New England/Area - Northern Connecticut/Ratings Pages/Pinewoods Health and Racquet - Menas.htm

Any and all help is appreciated.
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He was playing competitive matches at 3.5. Pretty simple.
 
N

NTRPolice

Hall of Fame
As others have said, he was playing up as a self rate and won games. Had he won many matches he could even be bumped to 4.0. Playing up as an C-rate is asking to be bumped; playing up as an S-rate is begging.
 
racket king

racket king

Banned
nytennisaddict said:
because your rating is not based on win/loss, and is based on games won vs opponent...
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It's more based on winning/losing margins calculated against the individual level of the players that you play against. Lose a close game to much higher rated player and you'll get more 'rating points' than winning against a lower rated player.

It's pretty obvious from that guy's match record, the individual match data/scores and his opponents (inc their level), that he should be in the 3.5 rather than 3.0 bracket.
 
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Moveforwardalways

Moveforwardalways

Hall of Fame
NTRP bumps are a strange thing. I've seen guys throw games to a guy playing up, just so he would get bumped and they could beat him easily the next season. Always helps to have a few easy kills in the pool of potential opponents. So be careful playing up, it might backfire on you.
 
D

Deleted member 23235

Guest
Moveforwardalways said:
NTRP bumps are a strange thing. I've seen guys throw games to a guy playing up, just so he would get bumped and they could beat him easily the next season. Always helps to have a few easy kills in the pool of potential opponents. So be careful playing up, it might backfire on you.
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lol, until I came here, I used to think everyone played up to move up the ntrp ladder!
 
schmke

schmke

Legend
Short answer: He played 3.5 and was competitive enough that the NTRP algorithm thought he should be a 3.5 despite the losses.

Long answer: Contact me at ratings@teravation.net if you'd like to get a report showing the details of how I estimate his matches to have rated. See http://computerratings.blogspot.com/p/example-individual-estimated-dynamic.html for an example of a report. And FWIW, my estimate agrees with him being a 3.5 and being close enough to appeal down, so am within a few hundredths of being exactly correct, and clearly TLS is way off on this one, at least 0.63.

Also see my FAQ at http://computerratings.blogspot.com/p/usta-ntrp-faq.html for some details on how the algorithm works and how losing doesn't always result in a low rating.
 
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K

kickit

New User
I knew that it was the score that matters and not the result, but I guess my expectation of what a competitive match is differs from the algorithm's definition of competitive and what other people consider competitive. :confused:
 
K

kickit

New User
schmke said:
Short answer: He played 3.5 and was competitive enough that the NTRP algorithm thought he should be a 3.5 despite the losses.

Long answer: Contact me at ratings@teravation.net if you'd like to get a report showing the details of how I estimate his matches to have rated. See http://computerratings.blogspot.com/p/example-individual-estimated-dynamic.html for an example of a report. And FWIW, my estimate agrees with him being a 3.5 and being close enough to appeal down, so am within a few hundredths of being exactly correct, and clearly TLS is way off on this one, at least 0.63.

Also see my FAQ at http://computerratings.blogspot.com/p/usta-ntrp-faq.html for some details on how the algorithm works and how losing doesn't always result in a low rating.
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I greatly appreciate the time and effort that you put into making such a detailed site.
 
N

NTRPolice

Hall of Fame
nytennisaddict said:
lol, until I came here, I used to think everyone played up to move up the ntrp ladder!
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Lol, sometimes people self rate as low as possible "just in case" they might play a lower league. I mean, if you can self-rate as a 3.0, might as well, right? You can have more options in 3.0/3.5/6.0/7.0/8.0 all as a 3.0 than as a 3.5. You can tell the rating is sort of "engineered", because if I was self-rating to join a 3.5 mens team and my self-rating came out as a 3.0, I would appeal it up immediately to 3.5. I would only leave it as a 3.0 if I had a reason to do to, like possibly playing 3.0 league or playing 7.0 with a 4.0 partner.
 
D

Deleted member 23235

Guest
NTRPolice said:
Lol, sometimes people self rate as low as possible "just in case" they might play a lower league. I mean, if you can self-rate as a 3.0, might as well, right? You can have more options in 3.0/3.5/6.0/7.0/8.0 all as a 3.0 than as a 3.5. You can tell the rating is sort of "engineered", because if I was self-rating to join a 3.5 mens team and my self-rating came out as a 3.0, I would appeal it up immediately to 3.5. I would only leave it as a 3.0 if I had a reason to do to, like possibly playing 3.0 league or playing 7.0 with a 4.0 partner.
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I get the "just in case" attitude, which I recommend, just so you can get on a team and play...
but after that I wouldn't be engineering my rating by throwing matches... i'd be trying to play up as much as i can to keep testing myself.

then again, after being on this forum, i realize people give up on getting better at some point, and just want to stay at the top end of <level they're settling at>.
 
J

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
NTRPolice said:
Lol, sometimes people self rate as low as possible "just in case" they might play a lower league. I mean, if you can self-rate as a 3.0, might as well, right? You can have more options in 3.0/3.5/6.0/7.0/8.0 all as a 3.0 than as a 3.5. You can tell the rating is sort of "engineered", because if I was self-rating to join a 3.5 mens team and my self-rating came out as a 3.0, I would appeal it up immediately to 3.5. I would only leave it as a 3.0 if I had a reason to do to, like possibly playing 3.0 league or playing 7.0 with a 4.0 partner.
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People self-rating with no league or NTRP experience should self-rate 0.5 lower than the league they intend to play in if that's an option. The reason is that if they misestimate their ability and end up in a league too strong, if they self-rated lower, they can simply move down. If they chose the rating of their original intended league, they are then at the mercy of an appeal or end of year bump down to get in the correct league. For example, if a guy is asked to play in a 3.5 league, rates 3.0, and then gets smoked in his first couple matches, he can just register for a 3.0 team and play 3.0 instead. If he chooses 3.5 and gets smoked in his first couple 3.5 matches, he would then have to appeal to 3.0 to move down or wait until the end of the year and hope for a bump down. It's just a smart thing to do.
 
Moveforwardalways

Moveforwardalways

Hall of Fame
J_R_B said:
People self-rating with no league or NTRP experience should self-rate 0.5 lower than the league they intend to play in if that's an option. The reason is that if they misestimate their ability and end up in a league too strong, if they self-rated lower, they can simply move down. If they chose the rating of their original intended league, they are then at the mercy of an appeal or end of year bump down to get in the correct league. For example, if a guy is asked to play in a 3.5 league, rates 3.0, and then gets smoked in his first couple matches, he can just register for a 3.0 team and play 3.0 instead. If he chooses 3.5 and gets smoked in his first couple 3.5 matches, he would then have to appeal to 3.0 to move down or wait until the end of the year and hope for a bump down. It's just a smart thing to do.
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Exactly. This is the decision algorithm that the self rate system forces you into. And although perhaps not perfect, other systems have flaws too. I think the current system is as good as any, sandbaggers or not.
 
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