Roddick vs. Haas Predictions/"SPOILER"

fan_of_reds

New User
goober said:
Roddick vs top 10

Fed 1-8
Hewitt 1-5
Safin 3-2
Coria 4-0
Moya 3-1
Henman 2-3
Gaudio 0-0
Nalbandian 3-1
Agassi 1-5

Whatever dude. He only has a losing record against 4 top 10 players and his matches have been very close with Henman so I would say that it is a toss up with him.

Yeah, Roddick "only" has losing records against four of the top 10 players...but let's add up the TOTAL wins and losses against the top 10 players above.. 18 W - 25 L (for a winning percentage of only 41.86%)... I'd say if you had to bet, you'd go against Roddick if he is playing a top 10 player...
 

andfor

Legend
fan_of_reds said:
Yeah, Roddick "only" has losing records against four of the top 10 players...but let's add up the TOTAL wins and losses against the top 10 players above.. 18 W - 25 L (for a winning percentage of only 41.86%)... I'd say if you had to bet, you'd go against Roddick if he is playing a top 10 player...

That's very informative. Why don't you do the same for the rest of the top 10? I bet Gaudio has a killer record againt the other top 10 guys.
 

VictorS.

Professional
Those numbers are a little deceiving. For example, most of his losses against Agassi and Hewitt were earlier in his career, before he won the '03 US Open. Take away his record against Federer, and his record against top 10 players is much much better.
 

Matt H.

Professional
Haas's fastest serve before shoulder surgery was 136. I'd say he's lost a consistant 8-10 mph on his first serve. Last year on good days he was occaisonally touching the mid 120's or so. In '02, he would touch the low 130's.

No excuses, but i hope Haas takes a week off or so because i'm driving down to attend the Nasdaq 100 and he better be there!!!
 

VictorS.

Professional
I'm not sure how shoulder injuries such as Haas' affect play, etc. I know though in other sports such as football and basketball, it often takes a year or so to really get back from a major injury, such as an ACL. Hopefully Haas can get the power back in his serve. I wouldn't be surprised if it is largely mental. In his mind, Haas might be taking a little bit off his serves in fear of reinjuring the shoulder again.
 

goober

Legend
fan_of_reds said:
Yeah, Roddick "only" has losing records against four of the top 10 players...but let's add up the TOTAL wins and losses against the top 10 players above.. 18 W - 25 L (for a winning percentage of only 41.86%)... I'd say if you had to bet, you'd go against Roddick if he is playing a top 10 player...

Obviously you don't do much betting because I would not draw the same conclusions based on his results. I would only bet against him when he was playing Federer, Hewitt and Agassi. Well who would bet against Fed in any matchup with any player unless it was a clay court match? Hewitt and Agassi own him but I doubt I would lay a bet down on Agassi these days because his game in currently in a state of decline. Everybody else in the top 10, I would pick Roddick over on hardcourts and grass, but obviously not clay. 72% of his losses in the top 10 come from 3 players. Obviously you would pick based on who he matched up with. Making a blanket statement that you bet against Roddick when he playing any top 10 player would lose you a lot of money.

BTW Gaudio is 11-19 against top 10 players for a winning % of 37.7%. Why aren't you raggin on him? Coria who is ranked 5th is 15 -20 against top 10 players for a winning % of 42.8% basically the same as Roddicks. Keep the hating up but at least base it on some facts.
 

fan_of_reds

New User
andfor said:
Thanks for setting the record straight. It won't stop the next wise-guy/know-it-all from popping off without any truth behind their words. While I enjoy coming here to the board I have found many like to come and run their mouth and say whatever they want. No facts, just diarrhea of the mouth.

I can only attribute that behavior to one of three possibilities.
1. Stupidity.
2. Trolling.
3. Immaturity. There are a bunch of children here.

I'm not hating anyone, just simply pointing out that someone saying Roddick doesn't fare well against top 10 players is not "diarrhea of the mouth." Nor is it immature or stupid... It is just a comment based on the numbers.

As for...
goober said:
Obviously you don't do much betting because I would not draw the same conclusions based on his results. I would only bet against him when he was playing Federer, Hewitt and Agassi. Well who would bet against Fed in any matchup with any player unless it was a clay court match? Hewitt and Agassi own him but I doubt I would lay a bet down on Agassi these days because his game in currently in a state of decline. Everybody else in the top 10, I would pick Roddick over on hardcourts and grass, but obviously not clay. 72% of his losses in the top 10 come from 3 players. Obviously you would pick based on who he matched up with. Making a blanket statement that you bet against Roddick when he playing any top 10 player would lose you a lot of money.

Well, if he wins roughly 42% of his matches against top 10 players, I dont see how a blanket bet against him would be a poor choice. Sure, you don't bet against Federer, or perhaps maybe you always take Roddick on hardcourts, or whatever, the point is: ON AVERAGE, if you bet against Roddick, you win (and you win 58% of the time). The numbers don't lie, nor are they tilted (although, to be fair, I didn't actually look up the wins and losses Andy had, I took YOUR numbers).
 

goober

Legend
fan_of_reds said:
Well, if he wins roughly 42% of his matches against top 10 players, I dont see how a blanket bet against him would be a poor choice. Sure, you don't bet against Federer, or perhaps maybe you always take Roddick on hardcourts, or whatever, the point is: ON AVERAGE, if you bet against Roddick, you win (and you win 58% of the time). The numbers don't lie, nor are they tilted (although, to be fair, I didn't actually look up the wins and losses Andy had, I took YOUR numbers).

Well what is your point? I doubt that all the players ranked 5-10 significantly better winning % against top 10 players. I checked two-gaudios is 37.7 and Coria is 42.8. Guess what Sherlock it is hard to beat top 10 players! Maybe that is why they are ranked in the top 10? So basically you are saying you wouldn't bet against any player in the top 10 playing another player in the top 10 unless it is Federer or Hewitt. Well geez I guess that why they are ranked #1 and #2 in the world. BTW all the numbers are on the ATP site and you are free to look them up an confirm them.
 

alan-n

Professional
I don't read too much into the percentages, as a player early in their career is nowhere near the player they are now. Roddick in the last 1 1/2 years has taken some tough slam AND master series losses to Hewitt, Federer, Pim Pim. Tough Davis cup losses to Nadal, everyone else he has fared much better. Good to see have some confidence back, I'm not a fan of Roddick but would like to see him give guys like Hewitt and Federer a tough fight rather than fold like he has in the last few matches.
 

andfor

Legend
goober said:
Well what is your point? I doubt that all the players ranked 5-10 significantly better winning % against top 10 players. I checked two-gaudios is 37.7 and Coria is 42.8. Guess what Sherlock it is hard to beat top 10 players! Maybe that is why they are ranked in the top 10? So basically you are saying you wouldn't bet against any player in the top 10 playing another player in the top 10 unless it is Federer or Hewitt. Well geez I guess that why they are ranked #1 and #2 in the world. BTW all the numbers are on the ATP site and you are free to look them up an confirm them.

Goober, Thanks for looking up some of the numbers for Red and me. I wanted Red to do it so he could see what you pointed out. I am usually pretty good looking up info as you did but was short on time and had to run.

I purposely made the comment about Gaudio blind. I knew with out looking up his record against the top 10 he was maybe the worst of all of them. Goober your right, even the top 10 guys have difficulty playing each other. Unless a top ten guy (except Fed or Hewitt) gets to play other top ten guys on their favorite surface every time, records may scew decievingly one way or another. Also, records of top 10 guys against other top 10's for players who have not been in the top 10 very long may not be the best measure of a players big match ability or ability to win period.
 

Vlad

Professional
The fact is and I agree with some of you that if Roddick is healthy then I would not bet against him on hard courts except when he plays Fed, Hewitt, Agassi, Safin, and maybe Johannson. The rest of the field either does not posses the serve to match Roddick or return of serve to get his his balls in play on a consistent basis. There are few others who are capable of beating Roddick on hard only if they play very very decent match : Moya, Nalbandian, Haas, Canas.

On clay it is totally different scenario. I can think of maybe 20-25 players who are easily better than Roddick. Once his serve is in play on a consistent basis, then a lot of guys out there who can compete with him from the baseline.
His top 10 results are skewed somewhat becuase most of the wins he had against likes of Coria, Moya, Nalbandian, are on hard courts and if he could make later rounds in clay events and face those guys, his results would be somewhat different.

BTW, I just checked Safin - Gaudio head to head and all of their meeting were on clay (5 meetings, Safin leads 3-2) once again because Gaudio is a clay courter and he does not reach later rounds of hard court events often.
 
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