Get A Grip
Hall of Fame
Aren't the current odds on Nadal 9/2? I'm not a better, but I would put a little money (fun money) down on those odds.
Can we have a sensible discussion about Nadal's Wim 17 chances? (poll)
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Aren't the current odds on Nadal 9/2? I'm not a better, but I would put a little money (fun money) down on those odds.
falstaff78
Hall of Fame
The odds depend on whether you see them through a mobile or a laptop
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
fair enough, but you can see esp on a board like this why people might think there is agenda even to the most "fact" based post plus i often feel that those who are only looking at stats and are focused on only that often have tunnel vision or miss the nuances. granted perhaps this isn't the case.
Get A Grip
Hall of Fame
Really? And I guess you can find different odds on different betting sites, and of course they change before the draw, after the 1rst round etc.
I had asked another poster how often oddsmakers are right, because I'm curious. Obviously there's no way of saying how correct the spread was (well in a way the final score should reflect the spread, somewhat) but just the final result.
V
VexlanderPrime
Guest
I have Rafa as my favorite to win. Followed by Fed/Djokovic
falstaff78
Hall of Fame
Turns out betting markets are the best predictors of future events. (That doesn't mean they are perfect.)
Check this out. Betting markets' track record in politics.
https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html
Obviously they can be wrong. But I am quite at a loss why Rafa is getting such a look at Wimbledon.
It is entirely possible I am missing something. But I am at a loss what!
V
VexlanderPrime
Guest
History does show a trend ... BUT I just have a feeling in my gut about how he's playing atm and his level of focus.
Also I don't think he needs to light the world in fire to win. He field is weak and I expect upsets for Fed and Andy. Prob Djoker too
falstaff78
Hall of Fame
Fair enough.
It's just not often that huge numbers of people wholesale take positions seemingly contradicted by the historical precedent.
It's always fascinating to see how people with a different perspective interpret the same facts differently from myself.
Get A Grip
Hall of Fame
Thanks for the link.
As for the loss as to what you could be missing, I think it's the lack of a better 2nd choice than Rafa, given the form of Andy and Djok recently. Who in their right mind would put Waw 2nd or Cilic? IT may well turn out that Djok gets himself together here. But it's also true that Rafa has really added alot to his game, and that should not just apply to clay. Faster more varied 1rst and 2nd serves, better BH, more ability to redirect the ball. I no longer fear Djok for Rafa; but on faster surfaces I do fear Fed.
And then the other things I mention: ranked #2, won Wimb twice, just won FO, the idea that there is a resurgent Rafa that might once again be a champion on multiple surfaces.
JohnnyMac Fan!
Legend
As a fan of Rafa, I do not see him winning the tourney. My take is, he could lose very early and the chances are quite high. Nadal is a momentum player, so if he gets a few matches in, it will be increasingly difficult to beat him and he will settle a rhythm. Nadal has improved his shot repertoire, but even with that an in form Roger, and confident Novak and Murray would take him down at the later stages of the tourney
Adv. Edberg
Legend
Sadly I think he'll go out early. R1-R3.
tennis24x7
Professional
Wimbledon was always house money for Rafa, hopefully it will be different this year lets wait and see.
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
perhaps, i mean with that note, a lot of people are putting a guy who hasn't won in 5 years as the overwhelming favorite and a lot of that isnt just based on history, but also based on recent performance and a few other factors as well. same thought process can apply. a lot of people's perceptions are also on the draw. i've noticed that there was still some apprehension of how nadal would do, but that seemed to change a bit more in his favor once the draw came out
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
ahhh damn now he's winning.
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
are you sure you're not at all loss because you don't want to fathom that he might to do well? recency effect is also something that plays a part when i think people make their predictions. rafa just swept the clay season and is an at all time high. sure you can say that in the previous years he went on to win the french and flop at wimbledon, but there are a few different circumstances this year. mainly the top two players of last year, are still finding their form, again it cannot be emphasized enough aside from maybe muller, and maybe...KK, are probably his biggest threats? you keep mentioning the last few years, but perhaps more time should be spent analyzing the current draw and who you think could defeat him?
Adv. Edberg
Legend
Nah, he needs to dig deep and take one match a time. But it's been a while since he beat somebody good on grass. Like 6 years?
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
i'm sorry you cannot be taken seriously like ever. even if there is a point, credibility has gone out the window.
Adv. Edberg
Legend
V
VexlanderPrime
Guest
Wait is this for real?Nadal has no chance now. Uncle Toni is in charge for the Wimbledon fortnight while Moya is banished.
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
.............lmao your entire agenda was super clear during rg and its super clear now so lets not
Adv. Edberg
Legend
I have no hidden agenda. I just see the world for what it is.
Nadal hasn't performed well on grass for many many years.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Per Eurosport who interviewed him from Wimbledon after Eastbourne final today. Nadal says no Moya for the whole two weeks. It's stupid, but it's true.
Meles
Bionic Poster
TheGhostOfAgassi
Talk Tennis Guru
I wonder if he get beaten first or second round he will give up grass for good...
Big_Dangerous
Talk Tennis Guru
His draw is pretty favorable too! He really avoids big hitters and servebots until like the 4th round/QF. Khachanov could be a somewhat tough potential 3rd round match, but he's not really super experienced in Grand Slam play yet, so I gotta believe the experience factor is going to be a huge difference there. Then he might play Muller in the 4th round, who did take him out at Wimbledon, but that 2005, since then Rafa is 3-0 including exacting some revenge in 2011 at Wimbledon with a taster Muller bagel in the 3rd set. Then he might get Cilic in the quarters, but he also owns the head to head at 4-1. Then potentially Stan or Murray in the semis. He absolutely owns the head to head with Stan (16-3) and recently just thrashed him in the RG final, and Stan's game isn't super well suited to grass either, so I can't back Stanimal to beat Rafa given the disparity between their respective head to head. He also owns the head to head with Murray ,(17-7) not to mention he's never lost to Murray on grass - defeated him 3 times, all at Wimbledon.
Big_Dangerous
Talk Tennis Guru
There's no way - barring injury - that he's losing to Millman or Istomin/Young, even on grass.
TheGhostOfAgassi
Talk Tennis Guru
I also think he will win those two.
Just IF.....
Dont think its positive Moya will not be there though.
V
VexlanderPrime
Guest
Per Eurosport who interviewed him from Wimbledon after Eastbourne final today. Nadal says no Moya for the whole two weeks. It's stupid, but it's true.
Whu...why...WHY?!?!?!
TheGhostOfAgassi
Talk Tennis Guru
Is he a Rafa fan?Stats guy/analyst Craig O'shannessy picked Ralph as the winner
falstaff78
Hall of Fame
Stats guy/analyst Craig O'shannessy picked Ralph as the winner
link pls. when CoS opens his mouth, people should listen
I remember Millman can play a very dangerous, flat hitting game (a bit like Medvedev). He almost beat Fed on HC in Australia. I could see him being difficult to handle for Nadal on fresh grass.
TheGhostOfAgassi
Talk Tennis Guru
I stole this from @CharlenerivaStats guy/analyst Craig O'shannessy picked Ralph as the winner
Craig O'Shannessy
@BrainGameTennis
Rafael #Nadal having a solid practice right now at #Wimbledon. Max power. Max spin. He always brings the intensity pic.twitter.com/J5WPd4dHGZ
3:08 am - 1 Jul 2017
Craig O'Shannessy
@BrainGameTennis
Low forehands = heavyyyyy whip. The #Nadal racket head acceleration is off the charts #Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/OFd5nDSXNL
4:09 am - 1 Jul 2017
Craig O'Shannessy
@BrainGameTennis
#Nadal is really giving his backhand the good news. Majority hard & flat cross court. Sets up his run-around forehand as well #Wimbledonpic.twitter.com/3bQgaqncPQ
3:42 am - 1 Jul 2017
Craig O'Shannessy
@BrainGameTennis
The very 1st thing #Nadal does on a serve to his backhand = change the grip. Get it locked & loaded early. #Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/mMkZLErjq5
4:13 am - 1 Jul 2017
Craig O'Shannessy
@BrainGameTennis
The return of serve is a different animal than a groundstroke . Returning is more about blocking. Rebounding power. #Nadal. #Wimbledonpic.twitter.com/uf25IXXd2u
4:15 am - 1 Jul 2017
Craig O'Shannessy
@BrainGameTennis
The run-around forehand. #Nadal loves to go back cross court with it - behind his right-handed opponent's forehand. Wrong footing #Wimbledonpic.twitter.com/UuB8klZFVT
3:34 am - 1 Jul 2017
More here:
https://mobile.twitter.com/BrainGameTennis?p=s
Sysyphus
Talk Tennis Guru
Video breakdown of the draw. They pick winners for the men's draw somewhere in the middle of the vid. Speaks about Rafa's chances and hitting at 2:35 too.
Dunno, fairly impartial. If anything I think he's partial to one-handed players and old-school players, but seems to admire Rafa too. Was in Brown's coaching team when he beat Ralph in 2015.
TheGhostOfAgassi
Talk Tennis Guru
Really cant make up my mind about Rafa prediction for Wimbledon. One moment I want to put him as a winner for Prediction league in here, next moment I think he will loose 3 round
Need a crystal bowl.
Krish872007
Talk Tennis Guru
Thing is you can never tell what he'll do on this surface - I think a lot will also depend on how his path ultimately pans out. I can't see him winning if he has to face a bunch of big hitters in a row and then Murray/Federer back-to-back, that's too much to ask from anyone. But draws are capable of opening up quite quickly so we may be discussing a very different prospect this time next week - the only thing to do is to wait and see.
I had a look at some of the guys practising today just to get a sense of the way they are timing the ball. Still won't give much away as some people hardly try during practice whereas others go all out
I had a look at some of the guys practising today just to get a sense of the way they are timing the ball. Still won't give much away as some people hardly try during practice whereas others go all out
Sysyphus
Talk Tennis Guru
Really cant make up my mind about Rafa prediction for Wimbledon. One moment I want to put him as a winner for Prediction league in here, next moment I think he will loose 3 round
I feel the same way. No idea whether it'll be another early exit to Kachanov or something, or if he'll contend for the title. Am contemplating who to pick as finalist from the top half in the league right now. Rafa, Murray, Cilic.
Good point. Rafa is the practice king and nearly always goes 100%, so this may inflate how he looks in that sense. O'Shannessy seemed to suggest Rafa was on top of Grigor on practice today.
On the other hand Rafa's meek loss to Bendick wasn't exactly promising either, to it's hard to read much from that as well.
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
one of those statements is true, I'll give you that.
TheGhostOfAgassi
Talk Tennis Guru
Its really mind bogging
Rafas preparations for Wimbledon seems pretty good, the way he has done that this year. Team seems positive, including Moya, -If you have seen on the ATP site. But a few days before that Rafa said he couldnt play his game on grass. Then the loss to Berdy of all players.
And today those tweets. Want this Wimbledon to start now. His first match will tell a lot. But then its too late for the prediction league.
Rafa is an excellent tennis player historically and it could be possible to play great on grass again. He was pretty good at it. If Rafa finds his form on grass Ill take him over both Andy and Novak, but probably not over Fed.
falstaff78
Hall of Fame
cilic is the only one of the three to have:
- hard numbers on grass this year - 98% svc games, 18% return games, 14-1 in non-TB sets
- consistent recent track record at wimbledon - QFs in '14 (lost djokovic in 5) '15 (lost to djokovic) and '16 (lost to fed but should have won)
- pedigree - is major champ
cc0509
Talk Tennis Guru
But you are cherry-picking ONE of his comments(which you always do) from a whole slew of his other comments where he said things like:
He's made comment after comment in different threads about his feeling that Nadal won't go far at Wimbledon including his recent comment that Nadal will be unable to reach the semis. The fact that he made ONE remark where he said that he's not stating Nadal isn't capable of a deep run doesn't negate his 20 other comments in other threads indicating his feeling that Nadal really doesn't have much of a chance to do well.
It's fine that he has that opinion but it's also fine for others to not only disagree with it but question his motives for posting about it so many times, i.e perhaps deep down he isn't so certain about the fact that Nadal won't go far after all and perhaps he's illustrating his insecurity about it? That's my take.
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cc0509
Talk Tennis Guru
Yes, those who focus on stats alone often do have tunnel vision and miss other much more important indicators and the poster you are talking to is infamous for that and it's the same thing in this case IMO.
But each to his own I guess.
cc0509
Talk Tennis Guru
You're wrong 99.9% of the time, are you kidding? Look at all of your predictions for the FO.
Sysyphus
Talk Tennis Guru
Those are the points in his favor, especially proven current form on the surface, though not so much his overall pedigree when compared to the two others.
Not in his favor is the fact that he has only reached the one major final in his entire career, zero at Wimbledon, has the lower chance according to (surface specific) Elo-based models (reasonably solid predictor), and gives a return of 9 on the odds of making the final compared to 3.25 for both Andy and Rafa (another proven predictor).
At this point I'm actually leaning toward going with Murray as runner-up to Fed. Andy practiced not once but twice today, and by some reports looked to be moving well, so I think he'll be fit. He also has the kind of draw that may allow him to play himself into form like at the RG, and he's been a very dependable grass courter for the better part of a decade now (featuring in the finals three of the last five editions). Could of course be a case of Muzz-tinted glasses on my part though
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albertobra
Hall of Fame
My opinion is that Rafa can go long.
Serving very well, and this is great for grass. Flatter and more efficient backhand for passing shots. And let's not forget that Rafa has excelent touch on the net.
He has to improve the way he moves, basicly always advancing, but that is not instinctive for him.
If he manages to cover court as you should on grass he can be champion.
Serving very well, and this is great for grass. Flatter and more efficient backhand for passing shots. And let's not forget that Rafa has excelent touch on the net.
He has to improve the way he moves, basicly always advancing, but that is not instinctive for him.
If he manages to cover court as you should on grass he can be champion.
sportsfan1
Legend
Nadal's serving better and BH is improved. As always, the best chance for somebody to stop him is the first week, and then after that he's got momentum, the grass is worn out and a title is also possible.
On the flip side are Nadal's knees and the unpredictability of grass. He's not even playing a warm up event before wimbledon which raises the question whether he believes enough in his chances on grass or is trying to give it a quiet slip and focus on the hard court season instead?
On the flip side are Nadal's knees and the unpredictability of grass. He's not even playing a warm up event before wimbledon which raises the question whether he believes enough in his chances on grass or is trying to give it a quiet slip and focus on the hard court season instead?
tennis08tarheels
Hall of Fame
Awesome draw for Nadal. Depends on whether or not he can get momentum from steaming his R1 and R2 opponents before the clash with Khachanov.
The_18th_Slam
Hall of Fame
So what I basically got from all that is that he doesn't think Nadal will make it far at Wimbledon but isn't ruling out the possibility (as he explicitly stated). You put words in his mouth by claiming that he said Nadal has "no chance" at making it far at Wimbledon. Since you haven't provided any quote from him where he said Nadal has "no chance", I'm concluding that you pulled that bit out of your rear orifice, as you so often do. You should probably stop that.
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
Rafa served and volleyed one time in the 2008 final. He served and volleyed one time in the 2007 final.
What does it matter what his touch at the net is when he never ventures up there except when drawn in by his opponent?
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