Who is the best bet for the Australian Open?
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thejoe
Hall of Fame
I don't care what you say, Mardy Fish and Sam Querrey do not qualify as hard draws. Nadal was consistent because of his opposition:
Australian Open:
Victor Troicki, Florent Serra, Gilles Simon (not playing like the end-of-year Simon), Mathieu (who retired hurt), Nieminen, and then lost to Tsonga in straight sets
US Open:
Bjorn Phau, Deheart, Troicki, Querrey, Fish, and then lost to Murray
He was consistent at the US Open because he didn't play a seeded player until the semi-finals, where he promptly lost. It was the same at the Australian Open, he lost to the first player to provide him any sort of challenge. Sounds like the play of a true hardcourt champion :roll:
You sure typed a lot for not caring about what I said.
AO: Troicki was a dangerous 1st round, Simon was a good player regardless of what you say, Mathieu was being punished by Nadal as usual, Nieminen beat the guy who beat Roddick (where does it leave Roddick then?)
USO: Troicki beat Roddick one month before the USO and Nadal destroyed him. Querrey liteterally destroyed Berdych at the USO. Fish beat both Blake and Monfils in straight sets, he was on fire at the USO.
I know you would consider Robredo (5 sets against Djokovic), Andreev (5 sets against Federer) and Melzer (5 sets against Murray) easy opponents if they had played Nadal, typical double standards from Nadal haters.
Maybe you want to check Federer´s draw in Roland Garros as well.
Besides that, Nadal beat Djokovic and Murray on hardcourts last year.
This reminds me those Nadal haters saying that Nadal reached the Wimbledon final in 2006 and 2007 because his draw was a joke and he was lucky. I guess 2008 was a great lesson for them.
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thejoe
Hall of Fame
"I don't care what you say" was regarding the inevitable excuses that you were going to throw my way, claiming that Troicki etc. pose a real threat. This has nothing to do with his draws at Wimbledon, all I'm saying is that he isn't a hard-court God. I wouldn't consider those above draws tough (Robredo, Andreev etc.), but I would call them bad match-ups stylistically, and form-wise. Nadal did not have difficult draws at the hard-court slams and I can't believe you are maintaining that he did. Sure, Federer didn't have a particularly tough draw at Roland Garros, but I didn't make the comment that he was the most consistent player at the clay-court tournaments before the final, did I?
SempreSami
Hall of Fame
Murray is the form player but Federer still has the Grand Slam winning pedigree.
World Beater
Hall of Fame
murray is the bandwagon favorite.
alienhamster
Hall of Fame
I still think Nadal has underperformed at the Aus Open. He does fantastic on slow courts and, keep in mind, he's one of the best (if not THE best) best of 5-set players on tour. He's had a history of being injured or running into a crazy buzzsaw (i.e. Tsonga, who would have beaten anyone playing like that).
If he's healthy and can avoid any bad early matchups (e.g. Gulbis), I think he's going to win this year.
If he's healthy and can avoid any bad early matchups (e.g. Gulbis), I think he's going to win this year.
Oui c'est moi.
Hall of Fame
Have the odds changed (after today's match)?
Leublu tennis
Legend
I am sure the odds have changed and Murray is looking better.
Tony Sideway
Banned
Andy Murray for me, playing great....
Sentinel
Bionic Poster
Surprise finalist? Federer. And surprise winner, too.
No way Murray can last 4 or 5 setters. Although, they do get a break every other day, but still ...
This sounds exactly like the predictions for last year's AO. I don't think for sure any of us have a clue. Nadal may well get it but there is always the chance he won't after his upset last year. Federer is not playing well at all and Murray is always the main runner but can he deliver this time? We have waited and waited.
Davy_for _GOAT
Banned
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namelessone
Legend
My favourites for AO according to form:
1)DelPo-sure,we haven't seen him since WTF but with that massive serve and booming forehands he is a definite favourite here. Plus you have to remember that he took Nadal and Fed out so confidence won't be a issue if he meets them. And his stamina has got better
2)Federer-even though his form doesn't look great right now we all know Fed is a beast at Slams and I have no reason to think that he won't make at least semi's here. And you have to remember that he is playing for bonuses right now,he has achieved most of what he set out to do. Perhaps this relaxed attitude+the importance of a slam will make him play better than in the mickey mouse tournaments.
3)Djoker-he is a great player on HC,has the weapons for it and we know that he can take it to most HC players. I place him third because I still worry about his stamina in the hot australian sun.
4)Nadal-he is the reigning champion after that tremendous effort last year but tehnically speaking,HC isn't his thing.Plus,he is just starting to get into his groove right now,he is starting to look like a top10 player unlike the end of last year. If he can avoid the likes of delpo or djoker I can see Rafa making semi's and maybe with a bit of luck maybe even the final,where anything can happen.
5)Davydenko-king of the three setters it seems. He has beaten Fedal twice in a row so I think he will fancy his chances here but I doubt his five set ability. He is the man to beat right now so it will be a very interesting AO for him.
6)Murray-he has been out of the spotlight and that might be a good thing for him. He has recovered from his wrist injury and will enjoy his underdog status. He is somewhat of a darkhorse if you will
1)DelPo-sure,we haven't seen him since WTF but with that massive serve and booming forehands he is a definite favourite here. Plus you have to remember that he took Nadal and Fed out so confidence won't be a issue if he meets them. And his stamina has got better
2)Federer-even though his form doesn't look great right now we all know Fed is a beast at Slams and I have no reason to think that he won't make at least semi's here. And you have to remember that he is playing for bonuses right now,he has achieved most of what he set out to do. Perhaps this relaxed attitude+the importance of a slam will make him play better than in the mickey mouse tournaments.
3)Djoker-he is a great player on HC,has the weapons for it and we know that he can take it to most HC players. I place him third because I still worry about his stamina in the hot australian sun.
4)Nadal-he is the reigning champion after that tremendous effort last year but tehnically speaking,HC isn't his thing.Plus,he is just starting to get into his groove right now,he is starting to look like a top10 player unlike the end of last year. If he can avoid the likes of delpo or djoker I can see Rafa making semi's and maybe with a bit of luck maybe even the final,where anything can happen.
5)Davydenko-king of the three setters it seems. He has beaten Fedal twice in a row so I think he will fancy his chances here but I doubt his five set ability. He is the man to beat right now so it will be a very interesting AO for him.
6)Murray-he has been out of the spotlight and that might be a good thing for him. He has recovered from his wrist injury and will enjoy his underdog status. He is somewhat of a darkhorse if you will
Telepatic
Legend
batz
G.O.A.T.
A couple of points if I may:
1. Murray has never been THE favourite to win a slam with any bookie, ever. The closest he got was co-fave for a short time with Roger at last year's AO. "Murray is always a slam favourite" is a TW meme with no basis in fact.
2. Murray has only been in the top 4 since the last quarter of 2008. He has entered 4 slam events since then. So the 'waiting and waiting' you allude to has lasted all of 12 months and 4 events. It's hardly Mandela on Robben Island now is it.
i couldn't possibly put murray below rafa and davydenko. while we know what rafa can do, and he is a great champion, indeed the defending champion, i think that was the best he will ever play on hards and i don't see him doing the same this time, even though it's a slow hard surface. his knees are a doubt still, his confidence is down, he's the dark horse because of all the question marks.
davydenko hasn't made a slam final, his stamina over 5 sets is unknown after his injury setbacks and being 28 now. maintaining his level for 3-5 sets for 7 matches when he doesn't have that one big shots that can get him out of trouble, a DelPo serve or Fed forehand, is difficult, so I see the semi-finals as being his best possible result.
murray has made a slam final on hard, unlike davy, and made a semi at wimbledon recently too, plus he's won a lot of tournaments last year and plays his best when coming back from injury, which he will be doing. as long as he's not overtrained in the off-season, i see him as a definite top 4 favourite for the title, and i feel that he has del potro's number if they should meet in the semi-finals.
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Well he is here in the uk. Its slam fever as far as Murray is concerned/ I don't give a toss what the bookies think. Tennis isn't a horse race
djokovicgonzalez2010
G.O.A.T.
Why is Gulbis in this poll???
Blinkism
Legend
This thread is from 2009.
That still doesn't explain how Gulbis got on the poll, I know. I just bumped this thread to illustrate how inaccurate most of the prediction trends are on this site.
Predicting is hard. Davydenko of now, was Murray last year. I would probably go with Federer if all odds are even, just because he always goes deep, and delivers something special more often than letting you down in a Slam.
er, the favourite for a tournament is definitely about what the bookies think, because the amount of money put on a player determines who is the favourite. the press have nothing to do with it, he's not getting all this coverage because he's the outright favourite, it's because he might conceivably win a slam and he's british.
JeMar
Legend
Serendipitous needs something to vote for.
Blinkism
Legend
I always go with the mantra "once a champion, always a champion" and that's where the "easy" bets come from.
So, if we go by that logic- the favorites should be Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Del Potro
All proven slam champs with HC slams to their names
batz
G.O.A.T.
That's why I stuck a tenner on Rafa @ 6/1 last week - crazy odds IMO.
batz
G.O.A.T.
Who in the UK makes Murray favourite to win the AO apart from Simon Reed?
Those are good odds yes. I think odds are that Federer or Nadal will win. I think I might put some money on both. If one of them wins I'll still make profit.
You probably should have waited for the draw to be released. If Nadal gets Soderling, Del Potro, Djokovic, or Davydenko in his draw it's very likely he doesn't win the whole thing.
Cesc Fabregas
Legend
Nadal needs to avoid Del Potro and maybe Djokovic but Djoker could welt under the heat again.
You forgot Soderling. Just b/c Rafa beat him in exo. doesn't mean he isn't a threat to him. You seem to forget too quickly...Davy just beat Rafa 24 hrs ago, he's owned Rafa on hardcourt.
Cesc Fabregas
Legend
dlk
Hall of Fame
I see your reasoning, but would you say Davy is not now playing the best in his career? Or do you believe he peaked/playing his best tennis in 06?
Davy is at the peak of his career imo atm. Davydenko beat Federer in TMF, which Fed really wanted to win I think. I would always bet on Federer or Nadal when they face Davydenko, but sure you gotta say he's got a chance this time.
I can see Soderling beating Nadal in a HC Slam as well. Guys like Murray, Del potro, Gonzalez, Tsonga have done it as well. Verdasco came mighty close.
you may feel that way, but I think Rafa don't want no part of Davy in his draw. He's got a 5 match winning streak against Rafa on hc. Soderling humbled Rafa on his best surface and then straight set him in WTF. These guys owned Rafa and part of the reason is why Rafa is still titleless for quite sometime. Wake up!
swedechris
Banned
My fav is Del Potro.
2nd choice is Rafa.
3rd Fed.
4th Djoko and Muzza shared.
5th Davy.
6th Cilic.
7th Sod.
8th Roddick.
9th Gonzo.
10th Fern.
Potential breakthru for Gulbis ...
2nd choice is Rafa.
3rd Fed.
4th Djoko and Muzza shared.
5th Davy.
6th Cilic.
7th Sod.
8th Roddick.
9th Gonzo.
10th Fern.
Potential breakthru for Gulbis ...
Everyone always underestimates Droopy
Who is Droopy?
