falstaff78
Hall of Fame
EDIT: UPDATED BEFORE WIMBLEDON 2017
Nadal's troubles in the first week of Wimbledon are well documented. In his previous 4 attempts he has lost in R2, R1, R4 & R2. In his 5 finals runs, he was pushed to five setters 5 times, in rounds 2 and 3 by low ranked players:
The likely explanation for this is that in the first week of Wimbledon, courts are slick and fast. Nadal is not comfortable in such conditions. His primary weapon, high bouncing topspin, is neutralized. Whereas in the second week, the grass gets ground down, and the courts become more favourable to him. See comparison below (Round 1 on top, Final below).
The chart below charts his dominance ratio (the ratio of points a player and his opponents lose on serve) by round. It compares him to everyone who has reached 3 finals or better since 1991.
Nadal is the only one whose performance bumps up rounds 4 and the QF, relative to the first 3 rounds. The effect is so strong, that it overcomes the stronger opposition in rounds 4 and QF. Thereafter, like everyone else, his performance declines in the semis and finals.
* accurate before wimbledon 2017
**missing significant data prior to 1991
Furthermore, Wimbledon is the only major, where this happens. At the other 3 majors, stronger the opposition gets, the less he dominates.
If we further break this down by individual round, we can see that Nadal is especially vulnerable in rounds 2 and 3. In the second week, he is a different player entirely.
To conclude, while this clearly demonstrates that he is merely an above average player in fast, slick, low-bouncing conditions, credit to him for overcoming his deficiencies, making 5 finals and winning two titles. Including winning the 2008 final against Federer, which in my humble view is Nadal's greatest single achievement. (As opposed to his collective clay achievements.)
And if he gets to the second week, watch out!
Nadal's troubles in the first week of Wimbledon are well documented. In his previous 4 attempts he has lost in R2, R1, R4 & R2. In his 5 finals runs, he was pushed to five setters 5 times, in rounds 2 and 3 by low ranked players:
- Kendrick 2006 R2, rank 237
- Soderling 2007 R2, rank 28
- Youzhny 2007 R2, rank 13
- Haase 2010 R2, rank 151
- Petzschner 2010 R3, 41
The likely explanation for this is that in the first week of Wimbledon, courts are slick and fast. Nadal is not comfortable in such conditions. His primary weapon, high bouncing topspin, is neutralized. Whereas in the second week, the grass gets ground down, and the courts become more favourable to him. See comparison below (Round 1 on top, Final below).
The chart below charts his dominance ratio (the ratio of points a player and his opponents lose on serve) by round. It compares him to everyone who has reached 3 finals or better since 1991.
Nadal is the only one whose performance bumps up rounds 4 and the QF, relative to the first 3 rounds. The effect is so strong, that it overcomes the stronger opposition in rounds 4 and QF. Thereafter, like everyone else, his performance declines in the semis and finals.
* accurate before wimbledon 2017
**missing significant data prior to 1991
Furthermore, Wimbledon is the only major, where this happens. At the other 3 majors, stronger the opposition gets, the less he dominates.
If we further break this down by individual round, we can see that Nadal is especially vulnerable in rounds 2 and 3. In the second week, he is a different player entirely.
To conclude, while this clearly demonstrates that he is merely an above average player in fast, slick, low-bouncing conditions, credit to him for overcoming his deficiencies, making 5 finals and winning two titles. Including winning the 2008 final against Federer, which in my humble view is Nadal's greatest single achievement. (As opposed to his collective clay achievements.)
And if he gets to the second week, watch out!
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