Australia Seeding

[James P]

Most of the important ranking/seeding in Australia is set. Nadal and Thiem have already confirmed their participation, Federer has also hinted he'll be ready, so we only have the vaccine withdrawals to consider.

1. Novak Djokovic (guaranteed unless vaccine withdrawal)
2. Daniil Medvedev (virtually locked in, 1100 points ahead of Zverev and Tsitsipas, although he's losing 500 ATP Cup points in January)

3. Alex Zverev
4. Stefanos Tsitsipas (Zverev and Tsitsipas I believe are 100% locked in to at least the top 4, slight chance either can take #2)

5. Andrey Rublev
6. Rafael Nadal
7. Matteo Berrettini (needs two wins at ATP Finals to take seed #6, although it's pretty moot)
8. Casper Ruud (not a lock, he and Hurkacz are neck and neck for #8)

9. Hubert Hurkacz (see Ruud)
10. Jannik Sinner (might fall to #11 after this week, fairly moot outside of the "prestige" of being called a top 10 player)
11. Felix Auger-Aliassime (see Sinner)
12. Cameron Norrie (looks to be a lock at #12)

13. Diego Schwartzman
14. Dominic Thiem (no more points to lose to plummet down the rankings)
15. Aslan Karatsev (Shapo)
16. Roger Federer (chance to be passed by Denis Shapovalov this week, tbd seeding)

17. Cristian Garin (could also be passed by Denis Shapovalov, moot)
18. Denis Shapovalov (#15 seed with a SF at Stockholm, #14 with a F or W)

That's pretty much the entirety of the list that is in contention for those top 16 seeds. Doesn't factor in AO warm ups, but this is roughly how things should look in January.

 

[UnforcedTerror]

I hope Fed can stay in the top 16 and Hurkacz gets #8.

It would also be sweet if Bull lands in Med's quarter.

 

[James P]

I hope Fed can stay in the top 16 and Hurkacz gets #8.

It would also be sweet if Bull lands in Med's quarter.

He won from #17 in the 2017 AO. Part of why I posted this, not that I really think lightning will strike twice.

 

[One]

Should be one of the most interesting slam in a while. Everyone rested and not injured. Thiem and Rafa coming back, Zod-Med-Stef at their peak, and last time Novak coming to slam as a main favorite. And swan song for Fed.

 

[Tennis_Freak99]

If Djokovic plays, it would be great if we get a Djokodal QF

 

[James P]

If Djokovic plays, it would be great if we get a Djokodal QF

Djokovic could meet Thiem or Federer in the 4th round. Imagine having to go through:

4R: Thiem/Fed
QF: Nadal/Berrettini
SF: Zverev
F: Medvedev

Hell of a gauntlet...

 

[Tennis_Freak99]

Djokovic could meet Thiem or Federer in the 4th round. Imagine having to go through:

4R: Thiem/Fed
QF: Nadal/Berrettini
SF: Zverev
F: Medvedev

Hell of a gauntlet...

Yup, draw is key for Novak at this stage of his career, if he has to go through any 2/3 from Med/Zverev/Thiem it will significantly reduce his chances of winning the title. This is assuming Thiem would be back to his best at this AO which looks VERY unlikely.

For now, a good draw for Djokovic is to face any 1 out of Med/Zverev en route to the potential title. Playing both will be trouble for him

 

[ND-13]

Yup, draw is key for Novak at this stage of his career, if he has to go through any 2/3 from Med/Zverev/Thiem it will significantly reduce his chances of winning the title. This is assuming Thiem would be back to his best at this AO which looks VERY unlikely.

For now, a good draw for Djokovic is to face any 1 out of Med/Zverev en route to the potential title. Playing both will be trouble for him

The draw can be anything but as always, it will open up when the tournament becomes alive. You will have either them losing early rounds or laying an egg. There will be the one match where someone will win the first set and then promptly fold.

We have seen this story repeat for a decade. And yet , we think the next time is going to be different.

 

[Tennis_Freak99]

The draw can be anything but as always, it will open up when the tournament becomes alive. You will have either them losing early rounds or laying an egg. There will be the one match where someone will win the first set and then promptly fold.

We have seen this story repeat for a decade. And yet , we think the next time is going to be different.

Didn't happen at USO and it made ALL the difference (Berrettini, Zverev, Medvedev). Yes draws can collapse but there is no way to predict before hand

 

[NAS]

Didn't happen at USO and it made ALL the difference (Berrettini, Zverev, Medvedev). Yes draws can collapse but there is no way to predict before hand

Even Nishi played great in first set

 

[Tennis_Freak99]

Even Nishi played great in first set

Ya that too. It was was the typical tough draw Djokovic gets at USO usually. He needs a 2018 type of draw to win again I feel

 

[ND-13]

Didn't happen at USO and it made ALL the difference (Berrettini, Zverev, Medvedev). Yes draws can collapse but there is no way to predict before hand

Novak had so much pressure to win the grand slam. At AO, he is fresh as a daisy. Be ready for some whooping

 

[Autodidactic player]

Drawing some unlucky combination of unseeded/or very low seeded up and comers Alcaraz, Korda, Musetti or Nakashima (even Rune or Gaston); or drawing, can win if he tries, Kygrios in the early rounds could spell some trouble for any of the top seeds. Especially if worn out by a five setter in the excruciating Melbourne heat.

 

[Bambooman]

Don't forget Murray will cloud the issue with his WC.

 

[Autodidactic player]

Don't forget Murray will cloud the issue with his WC.

Yeah, I don't see Murray beating Djokovic but I could see a 3 1/2 - 4 hour match, possibly in the Australian heat, if for some unlucky reason they met in the first round. Difficult to recover from that if you get double unlucky and draw one of the tough, hungry, new kids in the second round.

 

[James P]

Likely unseeded players:

Anderson
Brooksby
Coric
Fognini
Fucsovics
Goffin
Humbert
Ivashka
Korda
Kyrgios
Murray
Musetti
Nakashima
Nishikori
Raonic
Tiafoe
Wawrinka

De Minaur is #33 right now, so could be, as well. Lots of potential in that group to be disruptive.

 

[Autodidactic player]

If van de Zandschulp can put it together like he did in the U.S. Open, he could be a problem as well.

 

[bogdan101]

There's no way Fed plays AO.