Did Capriati make a mistake leaving the game after the 93 US Open

[flyingforehands]

Buscemi talking about 1994 Wimbledon got me thinking about this a bit. Did Capriati made an overly hasty decision to leave the tour after the 93 US Open? She overall had a pretty good year, she got extremely unlucky with her draw at the slams that year. She drew Steffi Graf in the quarter finals of all 3 of them, and lost in straight sets in each. With a different draw she might have gone further in some of them, although she doesn't win, especialy as we already saw evidence she loses if she plays Graf in any of them. She had a pretty good summer before the US Open, especialy in Canada where she beat Sanchez Vicario (who by now was higher ranked than she so a big win) and some other good players to reach the final, where she lost to Graf in 3 sets but won a bagel set. The US Open was super dissapointing where she was upset by the dangerous floater Leila Meshki in the first round in a poor performance. She had been showing signs of burn out for awhile at that point. She really did not show any improvement after her devasting US Open semi final loss to Monica Seles, and that loss seemed to take a lot of wind out of her sails, particularly as she almost certainly would have won that US Open if she won that match. Her only noteable high point after that was her Olympic victory, she did not even make a slam semi final again after that, but remained solidly top 7/top 8 in the rankings. I think she was feeling frustrated with not making the big breakthrough, and after the super dissapointing US Open, it was just the breaking point to leave the game and lose it mentally for awhile, getting into shoplifting and other things. One has to remember the pressure on her to succeed was insane, and probably beyond what any 14/15 year old player in history has ever had, including Austin and Evert. It is definitely beyond what Graf had. It is definitely beyond what Monica Seles had, the US media were focusing on the younger Capriati over Seles when both were coming up until Seles began to dominate, and even then she was more the unpopular adversary to better liked contenders, than someone the US media pressured to do well. Her Dad was an unhealthy and negative tennis parent. All that took its tool and a few years stuck around 7th/8th in the world with no big titles, which nobody was expecting.

Had she stayed into 1994 though well we saw how things played out. Graf's form badly fell off and she won only 1 major. This is key for Capriati, as Graf is her worst match up, and if she could potentially outright avoid playing her at all it is a plus for her. Seles did not return yet. Sabatini continued to fall backwards non stop until her retirement end of 96. Navratilova was pretty much done by this point, apart from her inspired run at Wimbledon 94 at age 37, retiring at years end. Fernandez was a non factor with major injuries. Sanchez Vicario was very strong this year of course, and is not an easy opponent for Capriati, who she has a winning record against (a competitive one mind you). Pierce came on strongly, but was only that formidable at Roland Garros in the majors, and Capriati had and still has a good record vs her. Novotna had a mediocre year after the dissapointment of the 93 Wimbledon final choke carrying over. She stands no shot at all of winning the Australian Open where on fire Graf, who has a 10-1 lifetime record vs Capriati anyway, crushed everyone (I am pretty sure Graf would have even beaten Seles here had she played), but the other 3 slams could have been interesting with her in the draw and in good form, depending where she wound up and who she wound up playing/not playing. Mind you she would have needed to recover from her 93 US Open dissapointment, and show up in atleast equal and probably better form than she showed through her good times in 1993. And her motivation had been wavering and she had been stagnant in many ways for awhile. So it is hard to say if she could have capatilized on the possible opportunity of post Australia 94 any or not. I do think in hindsight she might have been hasty in stepping away from the game at that point though.

 

[Mustard]

Capriati wasn't in a good place mentally at the time. She needed to go for a while. At the time, she was basically a 17-year-old "has been" in declining form, with the best days of her short career up to that point long since over (Olympic gold at age 16, but her best form probably age 14-15). When she did come back, a slow buildup to form again.

 

[flyingforehands]

Capriati wasn't in a good place mentally at the time. She needed to go for a while. At the time, she was basically a 17-year-old "has been" in declining form, with the best days of her short career up to that point long since over (Olympic gold at age 16, but her best form probably age 14-15). When she did come back, a slow buildup to form again.

Is there anything that could have prevented that and gotten her back into a better place mentally even without the break? Or was that impossible with her family situation, the people around her, and all the pressure building on her.

 

[Mustard]

Is there anything that could have prevented that and gotten her back into a better place mentally even without the break? Or was that impossible with her family situation, the people around her, and all the pressure building on her.

More success in 1990-1993 could have prevented it for a while, i.e. if she had fulfilled all the hype about her at that time, but even that would have probably pushed her problems down the road until she was older. At some point, she was heading for a fall. She was a serious big time contender while still age 13, and hyped up massively.

 

[bluetrain4]

I don't think so. She seemed pretty frazzled by it all, she was young (after starting very young) and she was an everyone-wants-a-piece commodity. Add in some iffy parents and I don't think her rebellion and subsequent absence from the game was a mistake. Yes, we can speculate that if she kept on playing, maybe it wouldn't have been that bad and maybe she would have achieved more. But, that's major speculation. Despite all of that, Capriati made good on her early promise when she came back and won Slams and was a consistent presence and threat for a number of years.

 

[flyingforehands]

More success in 1990-1993 could have prevented it for a while, i.e. if she had fulfilled all the hype about her at that time, but even that would have probably pushed her problems down the road until she was older. At some point, she was heading for a fall. She was a serious big time contender while still age 13, and hyped up massively.

She definitely was not raised with a healthy mindset, especialy by her dad. Then again I am not sure if many, or any, parents would have realistically handled that situation. Graf's dad was worse than Mr. Capriati, but she was not under the same situation of having a lot of interest/expectations from the US public, particularly at 13. It would have taken a very special pair of tennis parents to handle and navigate the Capriati situation well, handle the media, help handle the pressure, and Capriati would have had to play her part in that too.

 

[Mustard]

I think her dad was okay, but he certainly made plenty of mistakes. Kids generally can handle a lot of pressure because they tend to see things very straightforwardly, like they'll be told to do something and they'll be like "Right, that's how you do it". When you get older, you start seeing things from different angles and all the complexities, what can go right, wrong, disastrously etc. and the different ways to do things that seemed so straightforward when you were younger. That's when "mental health" issues tend to come in.

Something else too. When you do something great at a very young age, the big thing against you is inexperience. You almost have to have a fall and come through the tough times in order to be strong again and now much wiser. We can see this in, for example, Agassi's career. Look at his 1988, rising to world number 3 and winning 6 tournaments, but he didn't beat many top players that year. In 1989, there was more pressure and it was more of a struggle compared to 1988. In 1990, he was a wiser player when he reached many big finals and still lost most of them, but won Miami and the YEC.

 

[flyingforehands]

I know @buscemi is a big Capriati fan. He/she must have some sort of opinion on this.

 

[buscemi]

I know @buscemi is a big Capriati fan. He/she must have some sort of opinion on this.

8/10 of Capriati's losses at Majors from Wimbledon 1991-1993 U.S. Open were to: (1) Sabatini; (2) Seles; (3) Sabatini; (4) Seles; (5) Sabatini; (6) Graf; (7) Graf; and (8) Graf. The only two outliers were Hy and Meshki at the 1992 and 1993 U.S. Opens after Capriati had come so close to beating Seles in the 1991 SF.

So yeah, Capriati might have made a different decision if someone could travel back in time and tell her after her loss to Meshki that (1) Sabatini's decline would escalate in 1994 and continue until she retired in 1996; (2) Seles would stay out of the game until mid-1995; and (3) Graf would have health issues and underperform for most of 1994 and miss the 1995 Australian Open. And, if that would have motivated Capriati, I could see her picking up at least one of the next five Majors before Graf came back w/a vengeance at the 1995 French Open. And maybe, by winning one of those Majors, it would have had a domino effect that led to bigger and better things than she actually achieved.

But that's a lot of if's, and the time off she took led to a pretty great second act. If Capriati had stayed in the game, it might have led to worse burn out and no such second act. So, I can't really say she made a mistake. It might have led to a better career, but I think there's a bigger risk that she would have flamed out worse and never would have returned to the top of the game.

 

[flyingforehands]

8/10 of Capriati's losses at Majors from Wimbledon 1991-1993 U.S. Open were to: (1) Sabatini; (2) Seles; (3) Sabatini; (4) Seles; (5) Sabatini; (6) Graf; (7) Graf; and (8) Graf. The only two outliers were Hy and Meshki at the 1992 and 1993 U.S. Opens after Capriati had come so close to beating Seles in the 1991 SF.

So yeah, Capriati might have made a different decision if someone could travel back in time and tell her after her loss to Meshki that (1) Sabatini's decline would escalate in 1994 and continue until she retired in 1996; (2) Seles would stay out of the game until mid-1995; and (3) Graf would have health issues and underperform for most of 1994 and miss the 1995 Australian Open. And, if that would have motivated Capriati, I could see her picking up at least one of the next five Majors before Graf came back w/a vengeance at the 1995 French Open. And maybe, by winning one of those Majors, it would have had a domino effect that led to bigger and better things than she actually achieved.

But that's a lot of if's, and the time off she took led to a pretty great second act. If Capriati had stayed in the game, it might have led to worse burn out and no such second act. So, I can't really say she made a mistake. It might have led to a better career, but I think there's a bigger risk that she would have flamed out worse and never would have returned to the top of the game.

Do you think her 92 and 93 and career goes better if she wins the 91 US Open or does that just escalate the crazy pressure that was already on her too much for how young she was?

One thing I think is her early career and overall career could have played out way better if she were European like Navratilova, Graf, or Seles, and the American media barely cared about her until she won something big. Alas being American and the US desperate desire for the next Evert, that was never going to be the case.

 

[Rosstour]

IMO she redeemed herself and has nothing to be sorry about.

 

[Mustard]

Do you think her 92 and 93 and career goes better if she wins the 91 US Open or does that just escalate the crazy pressure that was already on her too much for how young she was?

Her 1992 and 1993 probably goes better, but trouble further down the line in the mid or late 1990s probably.

 

[flyingforehands]

Her 1992 and 1993 probably goes better, but trouble further down the line in the mid or late 1990s probably.

Yeah seems most likely.

 

[buscemi]

Do you think her 92 and 93 and career goes better if she wins the 91 US Open or does that just escalate the crazy pressure that was already on her too much for how young she was?

One thing I think is her early career and overall career could have played out way better if she were European like Navratilova, Graf, or Seles, and the American media barely cared about her until she won something big. Alas being American and the US desperate desire for the next Evert, that was never going to be the case.

It's interesting b/c that match seemed like a real turning point in her career. It was all upward trajectory up until losing that match, and then she kind of flatlined or regressed other than the 1992 Olympics. But, as you note, does a win there give her confidence to keep improving and challenge Seles for the top spot (and I also wonder what happens to Seles), or does the pressure just mount more and lead to a bigger downfall. I think a win there probably leads to some bigger initial success, but that things turn out worse in the end.

 

[Mustard]

It's interesting b/c that match seemed like a real turning point in her career. It was all upward trajectory up until losing that match, and then she kind of flatlined or regressed other than the 1992 Olympics. But, as you note, does a win there give her confidence to keep improving and challenge Seles for the top spot (and I also wonder what happens to Seles), or does the pressure just mount more and lead to a bigger downfall. I think a win there probably leads to some bigger initial success, but that things turn out worse in the end.

Seles would have been fine. She loved tennis in her heart and soul. She'd have carried on, learnt lessons and been stronger, like after her 1990 losses to Garrison and Ferrando.

 

[flyingforehands]

Seles would have been fine. She loved tennis in her heart and soul. She'd have carried on, learnt lessons and been stronger, like after her 1990 losses to Garrison and Ferrando.

Momentum is a huge thing in tennis, no matter the player. Just for an example, if Nadal wins that very close Miami match with Djokovic in 2011, I would bet the entire rest of the year is very different. And that wasn't even a slam match.

Of course it does not always play out that way. Serena won a similar match in the Miami final vs Henin in 2007, and obviously had zero impact on either of the rest of their years, and even less on their remaining head to head matches of the year. It just depends.

 

[insideoutforehands]

Honestly would say no. Yeah she was playing decently well some of 93, but that does not change that she was mentally burning out/burnt out by that point. In theory 94 would be a big opportunity with Graf falling off badly after March inexplicably, Seles out, and the overall field weak, but that does not matter when her own brain, body, and psyche were pretty much fried by the point she took a leave.

As for her career being different if she won US Open 91? Maybe, but maybe she is even worse off. The pressure would not be through the roof on a now still 15 year old, and with how mismanaged she was, and the US hype machine, and her emotional/mental problems she has come out about since retiring. It could any number of ways.

 

[insideoutforehands]

8/10 of Capriati's losses at Majors from Wimbledon 1991-1993 U.S. Open were to: (1) Sabatini; (2) Seles; (3) Sabatini; (4) Seles; (5) Sabatini; (6) Graf; (7) Graf; and (8) Graf. The only two outliers were Hy and Meshki at the 1992 and 1993 U.S. Opens after Capriati had come so close to beating Seles in the 1991 SF.

So yeah, Capriati might have made a different decision if someone could travel back in time and tell her after her loss to Meshki that (1) Sabatini's decline would escalate in 1994 and continue until she retired in 1996; (2) Seles would stay out of the game until mid-1995; and (3) Graf would have health issues and underperform for most of 1994 and miss the 1995 Australian Open. And, if that would have motivated Capriati, I could see her picking up at least one of the next five Majors before Graf came back w/a vengeance at the 1995 French Open. And maybe, by winning one of those Majors, it would have had a domino effect that led to bigger and better things than she actually achieved.

But that's a lot of if's, and the time off she took led to a pretty great second act. If Capriati had stayed in the game, it might have led to worse burn out and no such second act. So, I can't really say she made a mistake. It might have led to a better career, but I think there's a bigger risk that she would have flamed out worse and never would have returned to the top of the game.

You have to wonder about her chances at the those 2 US Opens- 92 and 93, without her early round upset losses. Ironically despite those being the 2 slams she did the worst in from 91 to 93, they are also the 2 she had the best chance of having a look at winning outside the 91 US Open obviously. She was IMO never, ever winning Australia 92, Australia 93, Roland Garros 91, Roland Garros 92, Roland Garros 93, Wimbledon 91, Wimbledon 92, Wimbledon 93.

At the 92 US Open honestly she probably cruises to the quarters without her loss on a very off day to a red hot Hy Boulais who played out of her mind. And really her only obstacle to the title I think is Seles in the quarters. If she somehow got past that she has Fernandez in the semis, a pretty easy opponent for her historically, particularly on a fast court like this (I could see her still having trouble with Fernandez at say the 92 Australian or 93 French where she was in hot form, and on a slower court), and would be a break for her to avoid Sabatini (who Fernandez took out) who is a much worse opponnent for her. Then Sanchez Vicario in the final, who played a really poor final, maybe that was the pressure of playing Seles, but given Sanchez's poor performance in upset losses in the 93 RG and US Open semis, and weak performance in the 94 Australian Open, I rather doubt that. Of course getting past Seles in the quarters is not just one obstacle, it is a huge obstacle, but she did win her last hard court match with Seles in Miami that year, and nearly beat her at the Open the year before, and Seles was coming into the Open with 3 straight losses. So could be possible if she really came up with a big performance. Seles did look in strong form that Open and cruised to the win, but she also never got tested, and didn't really play any of her toughest opponents with Graf, Navratilova, Capriati, Sabatini all going out in upsets, and Sanchez being her pigeon anyway and playing such a poor final.

Then the 93 US Open. Funny her early draw was extremely tough for early rounds of a slam. Meshki was past her prime but always a dangerous opponent, even if it was still a very bad loss for Jennifer here. Then she would have had Katerina Maleeva, also now past her prime, but always a dangerous opponent, often would be seeded. Then Gigi Fernandez, who is a dangerous singles player on faster courts. Then Maggie Maleeva. Still she should theoretically survive that draw despite a number of somewhat dangerous lower ranked people, then in the quarters would have a past her prime Helena Sukova, even though she was playing well at this event, and Sanchez Vicario who as already mentioned was playing poorly in all big matches during this period and did in the actual semi final vs Sukova. She would have had a huge shot of reaching the final here. If she did though she plays Graf, who she has a terrible record against, but did take to 3 sets in Canada on hard courts soon before the Open, so maybe there is a small chance.

I think she would be hard pressed to win either, since she has a big challenge winning 1 match- 92 quarters vs Seles, 93 final vs Graf, but she really would have only needed one big performance/win to win both times hypothetically, as I think every other match she probably would have been the likely winner with how the draw panned out. These 2 events were her best chances of a major in 91-93, behind the 91 Open, not those other events she was losing in the quarters (or the 91 Wimbledon semis) which she was totally never actualy winning the title.